FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $106.83

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $111.27 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $106.83 UNDERWATER $7.17 (6.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

INTC reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 11 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $111.27 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,850/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$31/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,555	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,425/mo

HEDGE COVER
$31/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,850/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.3 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $111.27 (probe: $111C 14d) still earns $8,906/mo (82% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$2,294

was $3,555 · 35% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS ratchet

$114.73 → $111.27

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 7 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $155.40 (+45%) · daily UBB $144.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $111.27 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $112 20 Jul 2026 (7d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $112)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$1,775

Income / mo

$7,607

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.13/sh now → $5.75 mid-life (likely $6.93–$10.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,403 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $115 (overshoots $2.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.57/sh	+$787 cycle +$2,562 [-$349…+$489] · 61% credit	77% surv 67%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$112	22 Jul 2026	6d left	-$0.07/sh	-$37 cycle +$1,738 [-$703…-$191] · 15% credit	71% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.01/sh	+$4 cycle +$1,779 [-$1,288…-$326] · 14% credit	80% surv 73%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	27 Jul 2026	10d left	-$3.09/sh	-$1,543 cycle +$232 [-$2,825…-$1,891]	92% surv 89%
budget: banked $1,775 debit $1,543 (87% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$232 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,991/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

83%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$1,350

Income / mo

$10,125

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.16/sh now → $5.07 mid-life (likely $5.25–$9.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 686 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $118 (overshoots $2.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.80/sh	+$901 cycle +$2,251 [-$284…+$916] · 65% credit	79% surv 70%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.38/sh	+$192 cycle +$1,542 [-$378…+$396] · 49% credit	73% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$116	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.21/sh	+$107 cycle +$1,457 [-$411…+$270] · 42% credit	77% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.30/sh	+$149 cycle +$1,499 [-$1,173…+$130] · 32% credit	82% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	27 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.67/sh	-$833 cycle +$517 [-$2,079…-$886]	91% surv 87%
budget: banked $1,350 debit $833 (62% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$517 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,251/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $124 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $124)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$750

Income / mo

$2,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.62/sh now → $7.51 mid-life (likely $6.22–$10.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 445 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $127 (overshoots $2.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$124	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.81/sh	+$406 cycle +$1,156 [-$115…+$554] · 70% credit	72% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$129	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.74/sh	+$371 cycle +$1,121 [-$320…+$850] · 61% credit	75% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.33/sh	+$167 cycle +$917 [-$550…+$618] · 47% credit	76% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$125	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.27/sh	+$135 cycle +$885 [-$438…+$228] · 41% credit	74% surv 55%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	27 Jul 2026	10d left	-$1.43/sh	-$715 cycle +$35 [-$1,247…-$396] · 11% credit	80% surv 68%
budget: banked $750 debit $715 (95% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,118/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (82 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 82 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$1,997 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,892

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/5	$5,625	$5,594	92%	94%	+$4,983	-$0	0.0%	$-808 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$119	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.66	5/5	$6,225	$6,194	91%	93%	+$5,396	-$0	0.0%	$-728 (vs do-nothing $-2,620)
$118	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.87	4/5	$5,610	$7,461	89%	92%	+$4,757	-$0	0.0%	$-120 (vs do-nothing $-2,012)
$117	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.12	4/5	$6,360	$8,211	87%	91%	+$5,268	-$0	0.0%	$-20 (vs do-nothing $-1,912)
$116	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.39	4/5	$7,170	$9,021	85%	90%	+$5,780	-$0	0.0%	$88 (vs do-nothing $-1,804)
$115	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.70	3/5	$6,075	$9,808	83%	89%	+$4,757	-$0	0.0%	$632 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$122	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$5,795	$5,765	80%	85%	+$3,337	-$0	0.0%	$567 (vs do-nothing $-1,325)
$120	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.17	5/5	$5,537	$5,506	80%	87%	+$3,903	-$0	0.0%	$1,026 (vs do-nothing $-866)
$114	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	3/5	$6,750	$10,483	80%	88%	+$5,094	-$0	0.0%	$722 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$121	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/5	$5,932	$5,901	79%	84%	+$3,239	-$0	0.0%	$617 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$115	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/5	$6,429	$6,398	78%	86%	+$4,249	-$0	0.0%	$-58 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$120	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	4/5	$5,455	$7,306	77%	84%	+$3,096	-$0	0.0%	$1,132 (vs do-nothing $-760)
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/5	$7,538	$11,270	77%	86%	+$5,473	-$0	0.0%	$827 (vs do-nothing $-1,065)

Show 69 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 69.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/5	$6,429	$6,398	76%	84%	+$3,854	-$0	0.0%	$-58 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$119	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$5,673	$7,524	76%	83%	+$3,094	-$0	0.0%	$1,212 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$115	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/5	$6,333	$6,303	75%	83%	+$3,787	-$0	0.0%	$342 (vs do-nothing $-1,550)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/5	$5,945	$7,797	74%	82%	+$3,127	-$0	0.0%	$1,312 (vs do-nothing $-580)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	2/5	$5,625	$11,240	73%	85%	+$3,921	-$0	0.0%	$1,262 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$113	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	4/5	$6,171	$8,022	73%	83%	+$3,746	-$0	0.0%	$572 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$114	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.65	5/5	$6,083	$6,053	73%	82%	+$3,157	-$0	0.0%	$267 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$6,273	$8,124	73%	81%	+$3,196	-$0	0.0%	$1,432 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$118	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	5/5	$5,542	$5,511	72%	80%	+$2,381	-$0	0.0%	$1,767 (vs do-nothing $-125)
$115	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.74	4/5	$5,781	$7,632	71%	83%	+$3,551	-$0	0.0%	$1,830 (vs do-nothing $-62)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	4/5	$6,655	$8,506	71%	80%	+$3,300	-$0	0.0%	$1,572 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$113	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.15	4/5	$5,533	$7,384	70%	81%	+$2,850	-$0	0.0%	$792 (vs do-nothing $-1,100)
$117	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	5/5	$5,917	$5,886	70%	79%	+$2,535	-$0	0.0%	$1,992 (vs do-nothing +$100)
$112	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/5	$6,086	$7,937	70%	81%	+$3,237	-$0	0.0%	$552 (vs do-nothing $-1,340)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$6,300	$11,915	69%	83%	+$4,208	-$0	0.0%	$1,299 (vs do-nothing $-593)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	4/5	$7,145	$8,997	69%	79%	+$3,492	-$0	0.0%	$1,752 (vs do-nothing $-140)
$114	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.12	4/5	$6,099	$7,950	69%	82%	+$3,631	-$0	0.0%	$1,978 (vs do-nothing +$86)
$116	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	5/5	$6,250	$6,219	69%	78%	+$2,634	-$0	0.0%	$2,192 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$112	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,750	$6,719	68%	80%	+$2,918	-$0	0.0%	$467 (vs do-nothing $-1,425)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/5	$5,645	$9,378	68%	79%	+$2,664	-$0	0.0%	$1,892 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$115	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.90	5/5	$6,583	$6,553	67%	78%	+$2,719	-$0	0.0%	$2,392 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$113	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.50	4/5	$6,433	$8,284	67%	81%	+$3,709	-$0	0.0%	$2,134 (vs do-nothing +$242)
$111	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$5,721	$9,454	67%	81%	+$3,221	-$0	0.0%	$1,077 (vs do-nothing $-815)
$114	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	4/5	$5,500	$7,351	66%	77%	+$2,199	-$0	0.0%	$2,432 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/5	$5,973	$9,706	66%	78%	+$2,733	-$0	0.0%	$2,012 (vs do-nothing +$120)
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.65	2/5	$6,975	$12,590	65%	82%	+$4,427	-$0	0.0%	$1,189 (vs do-nothing $-703)
$112	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.90	4/5	$6,775	$8,626	65%	80%	+$3,774	-$0	0.0%	$2,293 (vs do-nothing +$402)
$111	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/5	$6,333	$8,184	65%	79%	+$2,841	-$0	0.0%	$925 (vs do-nothing $-966)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/5	$5,733	$7,584	64%	76%	+$2,210	-$0	0.0%	$2,572 (vs do-nothing +$680)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$6,300	$10,033	64%	77%	+$2,784	-$0	0.0%	$2,132 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$110	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.95	3/5	$6,364	$10,097	64%	79%	+$3,450	-$0	0.0%	$927 (vs do-nothing $-965)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	4/5	$6,000	$7,851	63%	76%	+$2,242	-$0	0.0%	$2,732 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$111	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.31	4/5	$7,125	$8,976	63%	79%	+$3,827	-$0	0.0%	$2,350 (vs do-nothing +$459)
$110	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.45	3/5	$5,450	$9,183	62%	77%	+$2,477	-$0	0.0%	$1,077 (vs do-nothing $-815)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.15	3/5	$6,668	$10,401	62%	76%	+$2,857	-$0	0.0%	$2,187 (vs do-nothing +$295)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	4/5	$6,200	$8,051	61%	75%	+$2,195	-$0	0.0%	$2,745 (vs do-nothing +$854)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	2/5	$7,800	$13,415	61%	81%	+$4,723	-$0	0.0%	$1,099 (vs do-nothing $-793)
$110	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.71	3/5	$5,600	$9,333	61%	78%	+$2,886	-$0	0.0%	$2,055 (vs do-nothing +$164)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	3/5	$7,036	$10,769	60%	75%	+$2,911	-$0	0.0%	$2,022 (vs do-nothing +$130)
$109	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.20	3/5	$6,686	$10,419	60%	78%	+$3,304	-$0	0.0%	$702 (vs do-nothing $-1,190)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.10	4/5	$6,733	$8,584	60%	75%	+$2,468	-$0	0.0%	$2,665 (vs do-nothing +$774)
$109	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$9,733	59%	77%	+$2,637	-$0	0.0%	$942 (vs do-nothing $-950)
$109	14d	27 Jul 2026	$9.18	3/5	$5,900	$9,632	58%	78%	+$2,929	-$0	0.0%	$1,895 (vs do-nothing +$3)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$7,364	$11,097	58%	75%	+$2,904	-$0	0.0%	$1,842 (vs do-nothing $-50)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,000	$8,851	58%	74%	+$2,461	-$0	0.0%	$2,425 (vs do-nothing +$534)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.65	2/5	$8,475	$14,090	57%	79%	+$4,791	-$0	0.0%	$989 (vs do-nothing $-903)
$108	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$7,971	$11,704	56%	77%	+$4,065	-$0	0.0%	$702 (vs do-nothing $-1,190)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	4/5	$7,200	$9,051	56%	73%	+$2,373	-$0	0.0%	$2,145 (vs do-nothing +$254)
$108	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.15	3/5	$6,150	$9,883	56%	75%	+$2,360	-$0	0.0%	$687 (vs do-nothing $-1,205)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.45	3/5	$7,732	$11,465	56%	74%	+$2,919	-$0	0.0%	$1,677 (vs do-nothing $-215)
$108	14d	27 Jul 2026	$9.65	3/5	$6,205	$9,938	56%	77%	+$2,960	-$0	0.0%	$1,738 (vs do-nothing $-154)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.95	3/5	$5,475	$9,208	55%	72%	+$1,629	-$0	0.0%	$1,827 (vs do-nothing $-65)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$8,059	$11,792	54%	73%	+$2,871	-$0	0.0%	$1,497 (vs do-nothing $-395)
$107	14d	27 Jul 2026	$10.13	3/5	$6,510	$10,243	53%	76%	+$2,972	-$0	0.0%	$1,580 (vs do-nothing $-312)
$107	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.05	3/5	$7,050	$10,783	53%	75%	+$2,795	-$0	0.0%	$657 (vs do-nothing $-1,235)
$106	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	3/5	$5,825	$9,558	53%	72%	+$1,743	-$0	0.0%	$1,737 (vs do-nothing $-155)
$107	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$8,036	$11,769	53%	76%	+$3,546	-$0	0.0%	$417 (vs do-nothing $-1,475)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$9,300	$14,915	52%	78%	+$4,927	-$0	0.0%	$899 (vs do-nothing $-993)
$106	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.40	2/5	$5,673	$11,287	52%	72%	+$1,951	-$0	0.0%	$1,539 (vs do-nothing $-353)
$105	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.45	3/5	$6,225	$9,958	51%	71%	+$1,896	-$0	0.0%	$1,677 (vs do-nothing $-215)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 16:21