FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $106.75

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $113.60 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $106.75 UNDERWATER $7.25 (6.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

INTC reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 11 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $113.60 (banked floor $111.19) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,850/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$31/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-3,555	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,425/mo

HEDGE COVER
$31/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$10,850/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.3 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $113.60 (probe: $114C 14d) still earns $7,624/mo (70% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$2,294

was $3,555 · 35% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$113.60 → $111.19

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 64 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bullish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 40 · %B 7 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $155.40 (+46%) · daily UBB $144.15 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $113.60 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $117 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

70%

Touch odds

64%

Per cycle

$3,550

Income / mo

$5,917

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $115 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

83%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$1,350

Income / mo

$10,125

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.25/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $5.26–$9.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 673 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $118 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.75/sh	+$873 cycle +$2,223 [-$318…+$889] · 64% credit	79% surv 70%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.33/sh	+$165 cycle +$1,515 [-$427…+$381] · 47% credit	73% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$116	20 Jul 2026	5d left	+$0.15/sh	+$74 cycle +$1,424 [-$470…+$241] · 40% credit	77% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.24/sh	+$121 cycle +$1,471 [-$1,206…+$101] · 31% credit	82% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	27 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.72/sh	-$861 cycle +$489 [-$2,141…-$900]	91% surv 87%
budget: banked $1,350 debit $861 (64% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$489 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,256/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $124 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $124)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$750

Income / mo

$2,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.70/sh now → $7.57 mid-life (likely $6.26–$10.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 433 simulated challenges: the $124 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $127 (overshoots $2.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$124	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.79/sh	+$395 cycle +$1,145 [-$124…+$531] · 68% credit	72% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$1.00/sh	+$499 cycle +$1,249 [-$185…+$976] · 68% credit	74% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.27/sh	+$136 cycle +$886 [-$607…+$576] · 46% credit	76% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$125	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.20/sh	+$101 cycle +$851 [-$487…+$182] · 39% credit	74% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	27 Jul 2026	10d left	-$1.49/sh	-$746 cycle +$4 [-$1,298…-$444] · 10% credit	80% surv 68%
budget: banked $750 debit $746 (99% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$4 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,118/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (82 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 82 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.057 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$3,619 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,514

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.50	5/5	$5,625	$5,594	93%	94%	+$4,999	-$0	0.0%	$814 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$119	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.66	5/5	$6,225	$6,194	91%	94%	+$5,416	-$0	0.0%	$894 (vs do-nothing $-2,620)
$118	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.87	4/5	$5,610	$7,461	89%	93%	+$4,776	-$0	0.0%	$1,502 (vs do-nothing $-2,012)
$117	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.12	4/5	$6,360	$8,211	87%	91%	+$5,292	-$0	0.0%	$1,602 (vs do-nothing $-1,912)
$116	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.39	4/5	$7,170	$9,021	85%	90%	+$5,810	-$0	0.0%	$1,710 (vs do-nothing $-1,804)
$115	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.70	3/5	$6,075	$9,808	83%	89%	+$4,784	-$0	0.0%	$2,254 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$122	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$5,795	$5,765	80%	85%	+$3,360	-$0	0.0%	$2,189 (vs do-nothing $-1,325)
$114	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.00	3/5	$6,750	$10,483	80%	88%	+$5,127	-$0	0.0%	$2,344 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$120	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.17	5/5	$5,537	$5,506	80%	87%	+$3,904	-$0	0.0%	$2,648 (vs do-nothing $-866)
$121	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	5/5	$5,932	$5,901	79%	84%	+$3,263	-$0	0.0%	$2,239 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$115	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/5	$6,429	$6,398	79%	86%	+$4,283	-$0	0.0%	$1,564 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$120	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	4/5	$5,455	$7,306	77%	84%	+$3,117	-$0	0.0%	$2,754 (vs do-nothing $-760)
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/5	$7,538	$11,270	77%	86%	+$5,512	-$0	0.0%	$2,270 (vs do-nothing $-1,244)

Show 69 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 69.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/5	$6,429	$6,398	76%	84%	+$3,894	-$0	0.0%	$1,564 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$119	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$5,673	$7,524	76%	83%	+$3,116	-$0	0.0%	$2,834 (vs do-nothing $-680)
$115	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/5	$6,333	$6,303	75%	84%	+$3,820	-$0	0.0%	$1,964 (vs do-nothing $-1,550)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.45	4/5	$5,945	$7,797	74%	82%	+$3,151	-$0	0.0%	$2,934 (vs do-nothing $-580)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.75	2/5	$5,625	$11,240	73%	85%	+$3,952	-$0	0.0%	$2,564 (vs do-nothing $-950)
$113	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.60	4/5	$6,171	$8,022	73%	83%	+$3,781	-$0	0.0%	$1,955 (vs do-nothing $-1,559)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$6,273	$8,124	73%	81%	+$3,222	-$0	0.0%	$3,054 (vs do-nothing $-460)
$114	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.65	5/5	$6,083	$6,053	72%	82%	+$2,932	-$0	0.0%	$1,889 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$118	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	5/5	$5,542	$5,511	72%	80%	+$2,402	-$0	0.0%	$3,389 (vs do-nothing $-125)
$115	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.74	4/5	$5,781	$7,632	71%	83%	+$3,555	-$0	0.0%	$3,452 (vs do-nothing $-62)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	4/5	$6,655	$8,506	71%	80%	+$3,327	-$0	0.0%	$3,194 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$117	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.10	5/5	$5,917	$5,886	70%	79%	+$2,558	-$0	0.0%	$3,614 (vs do-nothing +$100)
$112	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/5	$6,086	$7,937	70%	81%	+$3,278	-$0	0.0%	$1,535 (vs do-nothing $-1,979)
$113	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.15	4/5	$5,533	$7,384	70%	80%	+$2,661	-$0	0.0%	$2,175 (vs do-nothing $-1,339)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$6,300	$11,915	70%	84%	+$4,244	-$0	0.0%	$2,454 (vs do-nothing $-1,060)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	4/5	$7,145	$8,997	69%	80%	+$3,521	-$0	0.0%	$3,374 (vs do-nothing $-140)
$114	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.12	4/5	$6,099	$7,950	69%	82%	+$3,637	-$0	0.0%	$3,600 (vs do-nothing +$86)
$116	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	5/5	$6,250	$6,219	69%	79%	+$2,658	-$0	0.0%	$3,814 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/5	$5,645	$9,378	68%	79%	+$2,687	-$0	0.0%	$3,514 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$115	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.90	5/5	$6,583	$6,553	67%	78%	+$2,744	-$0	0.0%	$4,014 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$112	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,750	$6,719	67%	79%	+$2,674	-$0	0.0%	$1,290 (vs do-nothing $-2,224)
$113	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.50	4/5	$6,433	$8,284	67%	81%	+$3,716	-$0	0.0%	$3,517 (vs do-nothing +$3)
$111	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$5,721	$9,454	67%	81%	+$3,256	-$0	0.0%	$2,000 (vs do-nothing $-1,514)
$114	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	4/5	$5,500	$7,351	66%	77%	+$2,219	-$0	0.0%	$4,054 (vs do-nothing +$540)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/5	$5,973	$9,706	66%	78%	+$2,757	-$0	0.0%	$3,455 (vs do-nothing $-59)
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.65	2/5	$6,975	$12,590	66%	82%	+$4,468	-$0	0.0%	$2,344 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$112	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.90	4/5	$6,775	$8,626	65%	80%	+$3,783	-$0	0.0%	$3,277 (vs do-nothing $-237)
$111	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/5	$6,333	$8,184	65%	78%	+$2,645	-$0	0.0%	$1,615 (vs do-nothing $-1,899)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/5	$5,733	$7,584	65%	77%	+$2,231	-$0	0.0%	$3,955 (vs do-nothing +$441)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$6,300	$10,033	64%	77%	+$2,810	-$0	0.0%	$3,275 (vs do-nothing $-239)
$110	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.95	3/5	$6,364	$10,097	64%	80%	+$3,489	-$0	0.0%	$1,850 (vs do-nothing $-1,664)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	4/5	$6,000	$7,851	63%	76%	+$2,265	-$0	0.0%	$3,715 (vs do-nothing +$201)
$111	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.31	4/5	$7,125	$8,976	63%	79%	+$3,836	-$0	0.0%	$3,040 (vs do-nothing $-474)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.15	3/5	$6,668	$10,401	62%	76%	+$2,884	-$0	0.0%	$3,110 (vs do-nothing $-404)
$110	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.45	3/5	$5,450	$9,183	62%	77%	+$2,332	-$0	0.0%	$2,000 (vs do-nothing $-1,514)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.20	2/5	$7,800	$13,415	62%	81%	+$4,770	-$0	0.0%	$2,254 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	4/5	$6,200	$8,051	61%	75%	+$2,218	-$0	0.0%	$3,435 (vs do-nothing $-79)
$110	14d	27 Jul 2026	$8.71	3/5	$5,600	$9,333	61%	78%	+$2,895	-$0	0.0%	$2,978 (vs do-nothing $-536)
$109	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.20	3/5	$6,686	$10,419	60%	78%	+$3,346	-$0	0.0%	$1,625 (vs do-nothing $-1,889)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	3/5	$7,036	$10,769	60%	75%	+$2,940	-$0	0.0%	$2,945 (vs do-nothing $-569)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.10	4/5	$6,733	$8,584	60%	75%	+$2,492	-$0	0.0%	$3,355 (vs do-nothing $-159)
$109	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$9,733	59%	77%	+$2,671	-$0	0.0%	$1,865 (vs do-nothing $-1,649)
$109	14d	27 Jul 2026	$9.18	3/5	$5,900	$9,632	58%	78%	+$2,938	-$0	0.0%	$2,818 (vs do-nothing $-696)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$7,364	$11,097	58%	75%	+$2,935	-$0	0.0%	$2,765 (vs do-nothing $-749)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,000	$8,851	58%	74%	+$2,486	-$0	0.0%	$3,115 (vs do-nothing $-399)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.65	2/5	$8,475	$14,090	57%	79%	+$4,844	-$0	0.0%	$2,144 (vs do-nothing $-1,370)
$108	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$7,971	$11,704	57%	78%	+$4,112	-$0	0.0%	$1,625 (vs do-nothing $-1,889)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.80	4/5	$7,200	$9,051	56%	73%	+$2,400	-$0	0.0%	$2,835 (vs do-nothing $-679)
$108	9d	22 Jul 2026	$6.15	3/5	$6,150	$9,883	56%	75%	+$2,397	-$0	0.0%	$1,610 (vs do-nothing $-1,904)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.45	3/5	$7,732	$11,465	56%	74%	+$2,951	-$0	0.0%	$2,600 (vs do-nothing $-914)
$108	14d	27 Jul 2026	$9.65	3/5	$6,205	$9,938	56%	77%	+$2,971	-$0	0.0%	$2,660 (vs do-nothing $-854)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.95	3/5	$5,475	$9,208	55%	72%	+$1,650	-$0	0.0%	$2,750 (vs do-nothing $-764)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.85	3/5	$8,059	$11,792	54%	73%	+$2,905	-$0	0.0%	$2,420 (vs do-nothing $-1,094)
$107	14d	27 Jul 2026	$10.13	3/5	$6,510	$10,243	54%	76%	+$2,985	-$0	0.0%	$2,503 (vs do-nothing $-1,011)
$107	9d	22 Jul 2026	$7.05	3/5	$7,050	$10,783	53%	75%	+$2,835	-$0	0.0%	$1,580 (vs do-nothing $-1,934)
$106	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	3/5	$5,825	$9,558	53%	72%	+$1,764	-$0	0.0%	$2,660 (vs do-nothing $-854)
$107	7d	20 Jul 2026	$6.25	3/5	$8,036	$11,769	53%	76%	+$3,597	-$104	0.7%	$1,340 (vs do-nothing $-2,174)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$6.20	2/5	$9,300	$14,915	53%	78%	+$4,986	-$80	0.5%	$2,054 (vs do-nothing $-1,460)
$106	11d	24 Jul 2026	$10.40	2/5	$5,673	$11,287	52%	72%	+$1,974	-$0	0.0%	$2,694 (vs do-nothing $-820)
$106	14d	27 Jul 2026	$10.61	3/5	$6,822	$10,555	51%	75%	+$2,987	-$0	0.0%	$2,348 (vs do-nothing $-1,166)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:31