FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $104.96

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.70 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $104.96 UNDERWATER $9.04 (7.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

INTC reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 11 days. The recommended CC (11d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.70 (banked floor $114.29) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$8,411/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$35/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-6,112	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,205/mo

HEDGE COVER
$35/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$8,411/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $116.70 (probe: $115C 14d) still earns $3,750/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$4,851

was $6,112 · 21% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$116.70 → $114.29

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 58 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 39 · %B 9 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $155.73 (+48%) · daily UBB $144.98 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $116.70 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $117 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

73%

Touch odds

58%

Per cycle

$2,450

Income / mo

$4,083

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $120 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

81%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,525

Income / mo

$4,159

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.11/sh now → $6.45 mid-life (likely $6.50–$9.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 938 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $124 (overshoots $3.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$121	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.23/sh	+$617 cycle +$2,142 [+$156…+$799] · 85% credit	69% surv 55%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.14/sh	+$69 cycle +$1,594 [-$276…+$228] · 41% credit	68% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	27 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$67 cycle +$1,592 [-$275…+$224] · 41% credit	68% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.11/sh	+$55 cycle +$1,580 [-$478…+$168] · 33% credit	72% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$133	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.76/sh	-$1,382 cycle +$143 [-$2,232…-$1,408]	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $1,525 debit $1,382 (91% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$143 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,604/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $126 22 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $126)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

Income / mo

$17

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$126	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.85/sh	+$925 cycle +$930 [+$1,063…+$1,260] · 100% credit	69% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$130	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.05/sh	+$26 cycle +$31 [+$12…+$79] · 86% credit	74% surv 63%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$135	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.56/sh	+$281 cycle +$286 [-$59…+$552] · 69% credit	75% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$136	31 Jul 2026	14d left	+$0.22/sh	+$109 cycle +$114 [-$223…+$379] · 53% credit	77% surv 70%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (69 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 69 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.058 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,208 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $998

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.15	5/5	$4,312	$4,278	81%	84%	+$1,357	-$773	5.3%	$-677 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$119	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	5/5	$4,432	$4,397	80%	84%	+$2,129	-$0	0.0%	$1,720 (vs do-nothing +$723)
$113	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.33	5/5	$4,988	$4,953	79%	82%	+$1,435	-$1,183	8.2%	$-1,087 (vs do-nothing $-2,085)
$118	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	5/5	$4,705	$4,670	78%	83%	+$2,157	-$0	0.0%	$1,820 (vs do-nothing +$823)
$117	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	5/5	$5,045	$5,011	77%	82%	+$2,231	-$0	0.0%	$1,945 (vs do-nothing +$948)
$112	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.53	4/5	$4,590	$5,783	76%	80%	+$1,189	-$1,266	8.7%	$-990 (vs do-nothing $-1,988)
$116	11d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	4/5	$4,309	$5,502	75%	81%	+$1,825	-$0	0.0%	$1,578 (vs do-nothing +$580)
$115	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/5	$4,582	$5,774	73%	80%	+$1,847	-$0	0.0%	$1,278 (vs do-nothing +$280)
$111	4d	17 Jul 2026	$1.78	4/5	$5,340	$6,533	73%	78%	+$1,290	-$1,566	10.8%	$-1,290 (vs do-nothing $-2,288)
$114	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/5	$4,909	$6,102	72%	79%	+$1,902	-$0	0.0%	$998 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$115	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.50	5/5	$4,583	$4,549	70%	77%	+$1,247	-$0	0.0%	$1,998 (vs do-nothing +$1,000)
$110	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.04	3/5	$4,590	$7,010	70%	76%	+$990	-$1,397	9.6%	$-940 (vs do-nothing $-1,938)
$113	11d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/5	$5,182	$6,374	70%	78%	+$1,882	-$0	0.0%	$698 (vs do-nothing $-300)

Show 56 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$113	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.55	5/5	$4,875	$4,840	69%	77%	+$874	-$0	0.0%	$523 (vs do-nothing $-475)
$111	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.05	5/5	$4,393	$4,358	69%	74%	$-943	-$1,823	12.6%	$-1,727 (vs do-nothing $-2,725)
$114	18d	31 Jul 2026	$5.80	5/5	$4,833	$4,799	68%	76%	+$980	-$0	0.0%	$1,648 (vs do-nothing +$650)
$112	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	4/5	$5,509	$6,702	68%	77%	+$1,893	-$0	0.0%	$418 (vs do-nothing $-580)
$111	9d	22 Jul 2026	$2.68	5/5	$4,467	$4,432	67%	73%	$-673	-$1,508	10.4%	$-1,412 (vs do-nothing $-2,410)
$113	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.05	5/5	$5,042	$5,007	67%	75%	+$939	-$0	0.0%	$1,273 (vs do-nothing +$275)
$112	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.50	5/5	$4,821	$4,787	67%	76%	+$493	-$98	0.7%	$-2 (vs do-nothing $-1,000)
$109	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.33	3/5	$5,243	$7,662	67%	74%	+$987	-$1,610	11.1%	$-1,153 (vs do-nothing $-2,151)
$111	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.40	3/5	$4,418	$6,838	66%	76%	+$1,452	-$89	0.6%	$368 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$110	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.31	5/5	$4,950	$4,915	66%	72%	$-1,043	-$2,193	15.1%	$-2,097 (vs do-nothing $-3,095)
$112	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.30	5/5	$5,250	$5,215	66%	74%	+$885	-$0	0.0%	$898 (vs do-nothing $-100)
$111	14d	27 Jul 2026	$4.85	5/5	$5,196	$5,162	65%	75%	+$520	-$423	2.9%	$-327 (vs do-nothing $-1,325)
$110	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.25	4/5	$4,333	$5,526	65%	72%	$-209	-$1,378	9.5%	$-1,102 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$110	11d	24 Jul 2026	$5.80	3/5	$4,745	$7,165	64%	75%	+$1,506	-$269	1.9%	$188 (vs do-nothing $-810)
$111	18d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	4/5	$4,400	$5,593	64%	74%	+$686	-$0	0.0%	$638 (vs do-nothing $-360)
$109	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.60	4/5	$4,457	$5,650	64%	71%	$-911	-$2,038	14.1%	$-1,762 (vs do-nothing $-2,760)
$110	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$4,457	$5,650	63%	74%	+$420	-$598	4.1%	$-322 (vs do-nothing $-1,320)
$108	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.63	3/5	$5,917	$8,337	63%	72%	+$931	-$1,820	12.5%	$-1,363 (vs do-nothing $-2,361)
$109	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.20	4/5	$4,267	$5,459	63%	71%	$-739	-$1,798	12.4%	$-1,522 (vs do-nothing $-2,520)
$110	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.15	4/5	$4,767	$5,959	63%	73%	+$818	-$0	0.0%	$458 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$109	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.10	3/5	$4,991	$7,411	62%	74%	+$1,459	-$479	3.3%	$-22 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$109	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.55	4/5	$4,757	$5,950	62%	73%	+$406	-$858	5.9%	$-582 (vs do-nothing $-1,580)
$109	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.50	4/5	$5,000	$6,193	61%	72%	+$805	-$78	0.5%	$198 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$108	7d	20 Jul 2026	$2.99	4/5	$5,126	$6,318	61%	70%	$-867	-$2,282	15.7%	$-2,006 (vs do-nothing $-3,004)
$108	9d	22 Jul 2026	$3.15	5/5	$5,250	$5,215	60%	70%	$-1,632	-$2,773	19.1%	$-2,677 (vs do-nothing $-3,675)
$108	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	3/5	$5,236	$7,656	60%	73%	+$1,393	-$689	4.7%	$-232 (vs do-nothing $-1,230)
$107	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.97	2/5	$4,455	$8,102	60%	70%	+$581	-$1,345	9.3%	$-708 (vs do-nothing $-1,706)
$108	14d	27 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/5	$5,100	$6,293	60%	72%	+$417	-$1,098	7.6%	$-822 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$108	18d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	4/5	$5,133	$6,326	59%	71%	+$679	-$398	2.7%	$-122 (vs do-nothing $-1,120)
$107	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.35	3/5	$4,307	$6,727	58%	68%	$-696	-$1,904	13.1%	$-1,447 (vs do-nothing $-2,445)
$107	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.30	3/5	$4,300	$6,720	58%	69%	$-231	-$1,619	11.2%	$-1,162 (vs do-nothing $-2,160)
$107	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$5,605	$8,024	58%	72%	+$1,429	-$854	5.9%	$-397 (vs do-nothing $-1,395)
$107	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.00	4/5	$5,333	$6,526	58%	70%	+$607	-$678	4.7%	$-402 (vs do-nothing $-1,400)
$107	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.40	4/5	$5,486	$6,678	58%	71%	+$451	-$1,318	9.1%	$-1,042 (vs do-nothing $-2,040)
$106	18d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	3/5	$4,300	$6,720	56%	70%	+$541	-$629	4.3%	$-172 (vs do-nothing $-1,170)
$106	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$5,025	$8,672	56%	68%	+$535	-$1,469	10.1%	$-832 (vs do-nothing $-1,830)
$106	14d	27 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$4,371	$6,791	56%	70%	+$318	-$1,169	8.1%	$-712 (vs do-nothing $-1,710)
$106	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/5	$5,973	$8,393	56%	71%	+$1,444	-$1,019	7.0%	$-562 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$106	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$4,450	$6,870	56%	68%	$-510	-$1,874	12.9%	$-1,417 (vs do-nothing $-2,415)
$106	7d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	3/5	$4,564	$6,984	56%	67%	$-987	-$2,144	14.8%	$-1,687 (vs do-nothing $-2,685)
$105	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.05	3/5	$4,525	$6,945	55%	69%	+$542	-$794	5.5%	$-337 (vs do-nothing $-1,335)
$105	14d	27 Jul 2026	$7.85	3/5	$5,046	$7,466	54%	70%	+$700	-$1,154	8.0%	$-697 (vs do-nothing $-1,695)
$105	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	2/5	$4,282	$7,929	53%	70%	+$1,013	-$769	5.3%	$-132 (vs do-nothing $-1,130)
$105	9d	22 Jul 2026	$4.80	3/5	$4,800	$7,220	53%	65%	$-619	-$2,069	14.3%	$-1,612 (vs do-nothing $-2,610)
$104	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.45	3/5	$4,725	$7,145	53%	68%	+$507	-$974	6.7%	$-517 (vs do-nothing $-1,515)
$105	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.00	3/5	$5,143	$7,563	53%	65%	$-999	-$2,309	15.9%	$-1,852 (vs do-nothing $-2,850)
$105	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.80	2/5	$5,700	$9,347	52%	66%	+$524	-$1,579	10.9%	$-942 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)
$104	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.20	2/5	$4,473	$8,120	51%	69%	+$941	-$899	6.2%	$-262 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$103	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.90	3/5	$4,950	$7,370	51%	67%	+$486	-$1,139	7.9%	$-682 (vs do-nothing $-1,680)
$104	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.45	3/5	$5,450	$7,870	51%	65%	$-456	-$2,174	15.0%	$-1,717 (vs do-nothing $-2,715)
$104	7d	20 Jul 2026	$4.75	3/5	$6,107	$8,527	50%	64%	$-668	-$2,384	16.4%	$-1,927 (vs do-nothing $-2,925)
$103	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.60	2/5	$4,691	$8,338	49%	68%	+$881	-$1,019	7.0%	$-382 (vs do-nothing $-1,380)
$104	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/5	$6,375	$10,022	48%	65%	+$442	-$1,689	11.6%	$-1,052 (vs do-nothing $-2,050)
$103	9d	22 Jul 2026	$5.25	3/5	$5,250	$7,670	48%	64%	$-1,174	-$2,534	17.5%	$-2,077 (vs do-nothing $-3,075)
$103	7d	20 Jul 2026	$5.05	2/5	$4,329	$7,976	47%	63%	$-639	-$1,729	11.9%	$-1,092 (vs do-nothing $-2,090)
$103	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.75	2/5	$7,125	$10,772	44%	63%	+$360	-$1,789	12.3%	$-1,152 (vs do-nothing $-2,150)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 22:11