FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $102.30

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.97 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $102.30 UNDERWATER $11.70 (10.3% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

INTC reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (10d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.97 (banked floor $114.56) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$7,788/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$36/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-7,663	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,894/mo

HEDGE COVER
$36/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,788/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.9 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
6.0 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $116.97 (probe: $115C 13d) still earns $4,212/mo (54% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$6,401

was $7,663 · 16% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$116.97 → $114.56

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 59 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 6 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $155.46 (+52%) · daily UBB $145.68 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $116.97 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $118 31 Jul 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $118)

78%

Touch odds

48%

Per cycle

$1,900

Income / mo

$3,353

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $117 24 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

83%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$1,525

Income / mo

$4,575

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.23/sh now → $6.53 mid-life (likely $6.51–$10.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 838 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $120 (overshoots $3.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$119	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.91/sh	+$457 cycle +$1,982 [-$120…+$617] · 66% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$121	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.01/sh	+$7 cycle +$1,532 [-$646…+$133] · 31% credit	72% surv 61%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	27 Jul 2026	8d left	-$0.80/sh	-$402 cycle +$1,123 [-$1,074…-$313] · 13% credit	66% surv 53%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$130	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.83/sh	-$1,415 cycle +$110 [-$2,349…-$1,418]	82% surv 76%
budget: banked $1,525 debit $1,415 (93% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$110 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,624/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $119 22 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$360

Income / mo

$1,350

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.67/sh now → $4.72 mid-life (likely $4.04–$6.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 419 simulated challenges: the $119 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $122 (overshoots $2.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$1.85/sh	+$925 cycle +$1,285 [+$939…+$1,040] · 100% credit	70% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$128	31 Jul 2026	13d left	+$0.50/sh	+$249 cycle +$609 [-$160…+$515] · 66% credit	77% surv 69%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	24 Jul 2026	6d left	+$0.16/sh	+$78 cycle +$438 [-$145…+$68] · 51% credit	75% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	31 Jul 2026	13d left	+$0.20/sh	+$99 cycle +$459 [-$345…+$344] · 48% credit	78% surv 71%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$132	31 Jul 2026	13d left	-$0.65/sh	-$324 cycle +$36 [-$854…-$119] · 19% credit	81% surv 76%
budget: banked $360 debit $324 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$36 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,698/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (76 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 76 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.064 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,804 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $507

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$113	3d	17 Jul 2026	$0.84	5/5	$4,200	$4,164	89%	90%	+$2,680	-$1,564	10.8%	$-1,423 (vs do-nothing $-1,930)
$112	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.01	4/5	$4,040	$5,114	87%	89%	+$2,485	-$1,583	10.9%	$-1,369 (vs do-nothing $-1,876)
$119	10d	24 Jul 2026	$2.66	5/5	$3,990	$3,954	85%	88%	+$2,601	-$0	0.0%	$1,471 (vs do-nothing +$964)
$111	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.19	4/5	$4,760	$5,834	84%	87%	+$2,780	-$1,911	13.2%	$-1,697 (vs do-nothing $-2,204)
$118	10d	24 Jul 2026	$2.85	5/5	$4,275	$4,239	84%	88%	+$2,706	-$0	0.0%	$1,566 (vs do-nothing +$1,059)
$117	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	5/5	$4,575	$4,539	83%	87%	+$2,806	-$0	0.0%	$1,666 (vs do-nothing +$1,159)
$110	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.38	3/5	$4,140	$6,324	82%	85%	+$2,260	-$1,676	11.6%	$-1,389 (vs do-nothing $-1,896)
$116	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	4/5	$3,900	$4,974	81%	86%	+$2,308	-$0	0.0%	$1,127 (vs do-nothing +$620)
$109	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.61	3/5	$4,830	$7,014	79%	83%	+$2,466	-$1,907	13.2%	$-1,620 (vs do-nothing $-2,127)
$115	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	4/5	$4,140	$5,214	77%	81%	+$1,432	-$0	0.0%	$807 (vs do-nothing +$300)
$115	13d	27 Jul 2026	$3.65	5/5	$4,212	$4,176	76%	81%	+$1,215	-$0	0.0%	$982 (vs do-nothing +$475)
$108	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.86	3/5	$5,580	$7,764	75%	81%	+$2,627	-$2,132	14.7%	$-1,845 (vs do-nothing $-2,352)
$114	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	4/5	$4,440	$5,514	75%	80%	+$1,485	-$0	0.0%	$507 (vs do-nothing +$0)

Show 63 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 63.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$115	17d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	5/5	$4,059	$4,023	75%	81%	+$1,604	-$0	0.0%	$1,457 (vs do-nothing +$950)
$110	6d	20 Jul 2026	$1.77	5/5	$4,425	$4,389	75%	79%	+$577	-$2,599	17.9%	$-2,458 (vs do-nothing $-2,965)
$110	8d	22 Jul 2026	$2.29	5/5	$4,294	$4,258	74%	80%	+$1,278	-$2,339	16.1%	$-2,198 (vs do-nothing $-2,705)
$114	13d	27 Jul 2026	$3.80	5/5	$4,385	$4,349	74%	80%	+$1,133	-$0	0.0%	$557 (vs do-nothing +$50)
$114	17d	31 Jul 2026	$4.80	5/5	$4,235	$4,200	74%	80%	+$1,578	-$0	0.0%	$1,057 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$113	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.95	4/5	$4,740	$5,814	74%	79%	+$1,518	-$7	0.1%	$207 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$113	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.15	5/5	$4,544	$4,509	72%	79%	+$1,669	-$0	0.0%	$732 (vs do-nothing +$225)
$109	6d	20 Jul 2026	$1.84	5/5	$4,600	$4,564	72%	77%	+$157	-$3,064	21.1%	$-2,923 (vs do-nothing $-3,430)
$112	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	4/5	$5,040	$6,114	72%	78%	+$1,529	-$307	2.1%	$-93 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$109	8d	22 Jul 2026	$2.50	5/5	$4,688	$4,652	72%	78%	+$1,222	-$2,734	18.9%	$-2,593 (vs do-nothing $-3,100)
$107	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.15	2/5	$4,300	$7,594	72%	79%	+$1,861	-$1,564	10.8%	$-1,203 (vs do-nothing $-1,710)
$112	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.45	5/5	$4,809	$4,773	71%	78%	+$1,703	-$0	0.0%	$382 (vs do-nothing $-125)
$111	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.55	3/5	$4,095	$6,279	70%	78%	+$1,229	-$425	2.9%	$-138 (vs do-nothing $-645)
$111	13d	27 Jul 2026	$4.10	5/5	$4,731	$4,695	70%	77%	+$600	-$934	6.4%	$-793 (vs do-nothing $-1,300)
$108	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.21	4/5	$4,420	$5,494	69%	76%	+$333	-$2,703	18.6%	$-2,489 (vs do-nothing $-2,996)
$111	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$4,059	$5,133	69%	78%	+$1,377	-$87	0.6%	$127 (vs do-nothing $-380)
$108	8d	22 Jul 2026	$2.77	4/5	$4,155	$5,229	69%	77%	+$979	-$2,479	17.1%	$-2,265 (vs do-nothing $-2,772)
$110	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	3/5	$4,410	$6,594	69%	77%	+$1,293	-$620	4.3%	$-333 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$110	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.15	4/5	$4,754	$5,828	68%	76%	+$1,182	-$727	5.0%	$-513 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$106	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.48	2/5	$4,960	$8,254	68%	77%	+$1,965	-$1,698	11.7%	$-1,337 (vs do-nothing $-1,844)
$110	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.20	4/5	$4,376	$5,451	68%	77%	+$1,484	-$307	2.1%	$-93 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$109	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.15	3/5	$4,635	$6,819	67%	76%	+$1,249	-$845	5.8%	$-558 (vs do-nothing $-1,065)
$107	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.36	4/5	$4,720	$5,794	67%	74%	+$39	-$3,043	21.0%	$-2,829 (vs do-nothing $-3,336)
$107	8d	22 Jul 2026	$3.05	4/5	$4,575	$5,649	66%	75%	+$948	-$2,767	19.1%	$-2,553 (vs do-nothing $-3,060)
$109	13d	27 Jul 2026	$4.70	4/5	$4,338	$5,413	66%	75%	+$482	-$1,307	9.0%	$-1,093 (vs do-nothing $-1,600)
$109	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.30	4/5	$4,447	$5,522	66%	75%	+$974	-$667	4.6%	$-453 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$108	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.50	3/5	$4,950	$7,134	65%	75%	+$1,276	-$1,040	7.2%	$-753 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$108	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/5	$4,708	$5,782	65%	75%	+$548	-$1,547	10.7%	$-1,333 (vs do-nothing $-1,840)
$108	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.55	4/5	$4,624	$5,698	64%	74%	+$913	-$967	6.7%	$-753 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$106	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.70	3/5	$4,050	$6,234	64%	72%	+$46	-$2,480	17.1%	$-2,193 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$106	8d	22 Jul 2026	$3.45	4/5	$5,175	$6,249	64%	74%	+$1,049	-$3,007	20.7%	$-2,793 (vs do-nothing $-3,300)
$105	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.83	2/5	$5,660	$8,954	64%	75%	+$2,013	-$1,828	12.6%	$-1,467 (vs do-nothing $-1,974)
$107	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.85	3/5	$5,265	$7,449	63%	74%	+$1,282	-$1,235	8.5%	$-948 (vs do-nothing $-1,455)
$107	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.25	4/5	$4,846	$5,921	63%	73%	+$365	-$1,887	13.0%	$-1,673 (vs do-nothing $-2,180)
$107	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.00	4/5	$4,941	$6,016	62%	73%	+$978	-$1,187	8.2%	$-973 (vs do-nothing $-1,480)
$106	10d	24 Jul 2026	$6.20	3/5	$5,580	$7,764	62%	75%	+$2,112	-$1,430	9.9%	$-1,143 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)
$106	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.90	3/5	$4,085	$6,269	61%	72%	+$468	-$1,520	10.5%	$-1,233 (vs do-nothing $-1,740)
$105	6d	20 Jul 2026	$3.30	3/5	$4,950	$7,134	61%	71%	+$402	-$2,600	17.9%	$-2,313 (vs do-nothing $-2,820)
$105	8d	22 Jul 2026	$3.70	3/5	$4,162	$6,347	61%	72%	+$654	-$2,480	17.1%	$-2,193 (vs do-nothing $-2,700)
$106	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	3/5	$3,918	$6,102	61%	72%	+$746	-$1,070	7.4%	$-783 (vs do-nothing $-1,290)
$105	10d	24 Jul 2026	$6.65	2/5	$3,990	$7,284	60%	74%	+$1,449	-$1,064	7.3%	$-703 (vs do-nothing $-1,210)
$104	3d	17 Jul 2026	$3.20	2/5	$6,400	$9,694	59%	73%	+$2,001	-$1,954	13.5%	$-1,593 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$105	13d	27 Jul 2026	$6.75	3/5	$4,673	$6,858	59%	71%	+$785	-$1,565	10.8%	$-1,278 (vs do-nothing $-1,785)
$105	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.80	3/5	$4,129	$6,314	59%	71%	+$748	-$1,250	8.6%	$-963 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$104	6d	20 Jul 2026	$3.50	3/5	$5,250	$7,434	58%	69%	+$105	-$2,840	19.6%	$-2,553 (vs do-nothing $-3,060)
$104	8d	22 Jul 2026	$4.20	3/5	$4,725	$6,909	58%	71%	+$762	-$2,630	18.1%	$-2,343 (vs do-nothing $-2,850)
$104	17d	31 Jul 2026	$8.30	3/5	$4,394	$6,579	57%	71%	+$792	-$1,400	9.7%	$-1,113 (vs do-nothing $-1,620)
$104	10d	24 Jul 2026	$7.15	2/5	$4,290	$7,584	57%	73%	+$1,502	-$1,164	8.0%	$-803 (vs do-nothing $-1,310)
$103	17d	31 Jul 2026	$8.65	3/5	$4,579	$6,764	56%	70%	+$745	-$1,595	11.0%	$-1,308 (vs do-nothing $-1,815)
$103	3d	17 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/5	$7,300	$10,594	55%	71%	+$2,043	-$2,064	14.2%	$-1,703 (vs do-nothing $-2,210)
$103	10d	24 Jul 2026	$7.55	2/5	$4,530	$7,824	55%	72%	+$1,479	-$1,284	8.9%	$-923 (vs do-nothing $-1,430)
$103	8d	22 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$5,625	$7,809	55%	70%	+$1,166	-$2,690	18.6%	$-2,403 (vs do-nothing $-2,910)
$103	6d	20 Jul 2026	$4.15	2/5	$4,150	$7,444	55%	67%	+$285	-$1,964	13.5%	$-1,603 (vs do-nothing $-2,110)
$102	17d	31 Jul 2026	$9.10	3/5	$4,818	$7,002	54%	69%	+$740	-$1,760	12.1%	$-1,473 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)
$102	10d	24 Jul 2026	$7.95	2/5	$4,770	$8,064	52%	71%	+$1,439	-$1,404	9.7%	$-1,043 (vs do-nothing $-1,550)
$101	17d	31 Jul 2026	$9.65	3/5	$5,109	$7,293	52%	68%	+$777	-$1,895	13.1%	$-1,608 (vs do-nothing $-2,115)
$102	8d	22 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$5,625	$7,809	52%	68%	+$628	-$2,990	20.6%	$-2,703 (vs do-nothing $-3,210)
$102	6d	20 Jul 2026	$4.50	2/5	$4,500	$7,794	51%	66%	+$163	-$2,094	14.4%	$-1,733 (vs do-nothing $-2,240)
$102	3d	17 Jul 2026	$4.15	1/5	$4,150	$8,554	50%	69%	+$1,038	-$1,082	7.5%	$-648 (vs do-nothing $-1,155)
$101	10d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	2/5	$5,070	$8,364	50%	70%	+$1,440	-$1,504	10.4%	$-1,143 (vs do-nothing $-1,650)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-14 03:38