FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $107.05

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.43 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $107.05 UNDERWATER $6.95 (6.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

INTC reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), in 10 days. The recommended CC (3d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.43 (banked floor $114.02) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.185/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$8,596/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$36/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-4,885	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,298/mo

HEDGE COVER
$36/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$8,596/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
5.5 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $116.43 (probe: $115C 13d) still earns $6,173/mo (72% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$1,261

Hole (after banked)

$3,624

was $4,885 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$496

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$116.43 → $114.02

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $130C 15 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.99	$496	2026-07-10

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 62 (live) · RSI 57 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 14 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $155.54 (+45%) · daily UBB $145.02 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $116.43 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $117 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$635

Income / mo

$6,350

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.11/sh now → $3.61 mid-life (likely $3.77–$6.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 627 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $120 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.88/sh	+$442 cycle +$1,077 [+$217…+$620] · 93% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$129	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.81/sh	+$903 cycle +$1,538 [+$83…+$978] · 78% credit	78% surv 72%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.36/sh	+$182 cycle +$817 [-$133…+$323] · 57% credit	71% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$135	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.34/sh	+$170 cycle +$805 [-$861…+$191] · 35% credit	82% surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$143	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.24/sh	-$622 cycle +$13 [-$1,888…-$650]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $635 debit $622 (98% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$13 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,220/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $120 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$425

Income / mo

$4,250

Buyback gross: $5.24/sh now → $3.70 mid-life (likely $3.59–$6.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 367 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $124 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.84/sh	+$421 cycle +$846 [+$255…+$631] · 92% credit	69% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$132	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.84/sh	+$918 cycle +$1,343 [+$175…+$1,081] · 79% credit	78% surv 71%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$121	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.32/sh	+$161 cycle +$586 [-$85…+$341] · 64% credit	70% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$138	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.36/sh	+$178 cycle +$603 [-$760…+$284] · 42% credit	82% surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$143	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.46/sh	-$230 cycle +$195 [-$1,278…-$148] · 17% credit	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $425 debit $230 (54% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$195 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,041/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $133 17 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $133)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$45

Income / mo

$450

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$133	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.62/sh	+$310 cycle +$355	69% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$134	20 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.10/sh	+$48 cycle +$93	70% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$151	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.37/sh	+$186 cycle +$231	81% surv 77%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$153	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$0.06/sh	-$29 cycle +$16	83% surv 79%
budget: banked $45 debit $29 (64% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$16 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,795/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (86 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 86 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.060 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,969 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,746

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$119	3d	17 Jul 2026	$0.96	5/5	$4,800	$4,764	88%	90%	+$2,894	-$0	0.0%	$564 (vs do-nothing $-1,182)
$118	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.11	4/5	$4,440	$6,129	86%	88%	+$2,541	-$0	0.0%	$861 (vs do-nothing $-886)
$117	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.27	4/5	$5,080	$6,769	84%	87%	+$2,729	-$0	0.0%	$925 (vs do-nothing $-822)
$116	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.47	3/5	$4,410	$7,824	82%	85%	+$2,242	-$0	0.0%	$1,062 (vs do-nothing $-684)
$125	10d	24 Jul 2026	$2.95	5/5	$4,425	$4,389	81%	85%	+$1,743	-$0	0.0%	$1,559 (vs do-nothing $-187)
$124	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.00	5/5	$4,500	$4,464	80%	84%	+$1,560	-$0	0.0%	$1,584 (vs do-nothing $-162)
$115	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.71	3/5	$5,130	$8,544	79%	83%	+$2,483	-$0	0.0%	$834 (vs do-nothing $-912)
$123	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.20	5/5	$4,800	$4,764	79%	83%	+$1,640	-$0	0.0%	$1,684 (vs do-nothing $-62)
$122	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.45	5/5	$5,175	$5,139	78%	82%	+$1,748	-$0	0.0%	$1,809 (vs do-nothing +$63)
$121	10d	24 Jul 2026	$3.70	4/5	$4,440	$6,129	77%	81%	+$1,469	-$0	0.0%	$1,897 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$115	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.06	5/5	$5,150	$5,114	77%	82%	+$2,092	-$0	0.0%	$401 (vs do-nothing $-1,345)
$114	3d	17 Jul 2026	$1.95	3/5	$5,850	$9,264	76%	82%	+$2,640	-$143	1.0%	$606 (vs do-nothing $-1,140)
$120	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.10	4/5	$4,920	$6,609	75%	81%	+$1,703	-$0	0.0%	$2,057 (vs do-nothing +$310)

Show 73 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 73.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$114	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.32	4/5	$4,640	$6,329	74%	80%	+$1,771	-$42	0.3%	$374 (vs do-nothing $-1,372)
$119	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	4/5	$5,100	$6,789	74%	80%	+$1,619	-$0	0.0%	$2,117 (vs do-nothing +$370)
$113	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.22	2/5	$4,440	$9,579	73%	80%	+$1,862	-$241	1.7%	$840 (vs do-nothing $-906)
$120	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.15	5/5	$4,544	$4,509	73%	79%	+$1,378	-$0	0.0%	$2,659 (vs do-nothing +$913)
$118	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/5	$5,400	$7,089	73%	79%	+$1,636	-$0	0.0%	$2,217 (vs do-nothing +$470)
$118	13d	27 Jul 2026	$4.40	5/5	$5,077	$5,041	72%	79%	+$1,342	-$0	0.0%	$2,284 (vs do-nothing +$538)
$119	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	5/5	$4,765	$4,729	72%	79%	+$1,385	-$0	0.0%	$2,784 (vs do-nothing +$1,038)
$117	10d	24 Jul 2026	$4.75	4/5	$5,700	$7,389	71%	78%	+$1,634	-$0	0.0%	$2,317 (vs do-nothing +$570)
$118	17d	31 Jul 2026	$5.35	5/5	$4,721	$4,685	71%	78%	+$1,115	-$0	0.0%	$2,759 (vs do-nothing +$1,013)
$115	8d	22 Jul 2026	$2.53	5/5	$4,744	$4,708	71%	76%	$-168	-$0	0.0%	$636 (vs do-nothing $-1,110)
$112	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.53	2/5	$5,060	$10,199	70%	78%	+$1,975	-$379	2.6%	$702 (vs do-nothing $-1,044)
$116	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	3/5	$4,545	$7,959	70%	77%	+$1,253	-$0	0.0%	$2,136 (vs do-nothing +$390)
$117	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	5/5	$5,294	$5,259	70%	77%	+$1,449	-$0	0.0%	$3,084 (vs do-nothing +$1,338)
$112	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.76	4/5	$5,520	$7,209	68%	77%	+$1,622	-$666	4.6%	$-250 (vs do-nothing $-1,996)
$116	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.05	5/5	$5,338	$5,303	68%	76%	+$1,217	-$0	0.0%	$2,896 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$115	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.35	3/5	$4,815	$8,229	68%	76%	+$1,264	-$0	0.0%	$1,926 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$115	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.35	4/5	$4,938	$6,628	68%	76%	+$1,173	-$0	0.0%	$1,986 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$111	3d	17 Jul 2026	$2.86	2/5	$5,720	$10,859	67%	76%	+$2,054	-$513	3.5%	$568 (vs do-nothing $-1,178)
$115	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	4/5	$4,694	$6,384	67%	76%	+$1,201	-$0	0.0%	$2,506 (vs do-nothing +$760)
$113	8d	22 Jul 2026	$2.56	5/5	$4,800	$4,764	67%	73%	$-1,205	-$433	3.0%	$-349 (vs do-nothing $-2,095)
$114	10d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	3/5	$5,175	$8,589	66%	75%	+$1,348	-$0	0.0%	$1,746 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$114	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.60	4/5	$5,169	$6,859	66%	76%	+$1,112	-$0	0.0%	$1,686 (vs do-nothing $-60)
$114	17d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	4/5	$4,694	$6,384	65%	75%	+$975	-$0	0.0%	$2,106 (vs do-nothing +$360)
$111	6d	20 Jul 2026	$2.41	4/5	$4,820	$6,509	65%	74%	+$306	-$1,206	8.3%	$-790 (vs do-nothing $-2,536)
$113	10d	24 Jul 2026	$6.05	3/5	$5,445	$8,859	65%	74%	+$1,324	-$0	0.0%	$1,536 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$113	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.95	4/5	$5,492	$7,182	65%	75%	+$1,125	-$0	0.0%	$1,426 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$112	8d	22 Jul 2026	$3.00	4/5	$4,500	$6,189	65%	72%	$-795	-$570	3.9%	$-154 (vs do-nothing $-1,900)
$113	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	4/5	$5,082	$6,772	64%	74%	+$1,125	-$0	0.0%	$1,926 (vs do-nothing +$180)
$110	3d	17 Jul 2026	$3.20	2/5	$6,400	$11,539	63%	74%	+$2,073	-$645	4.4%	$436 (vs do-nothing $-1,310)
$112	10d	24 Jul 2026	$6.40	3/5	$5,760	$9,174	63%	74%	+$1,328	-$0	0.0%	$1,341 (vs do-nothing $-405)
$112	13d	27 Jul 2026	$5.85	4/5	$5,400	$7,089	63%	74%	+$706	-$0	0.0%	$986 (vs do-nothing $-760)
$112	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	4/5	$5,259	$6,948	62%	73%	+$1,050	-$0	0.0%	$1,626 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$111	8d	22 Jul 2026	$2.93	4/5	$4,395	$6,084	62%	70%	$-1,429	-$998	6.9%	$-582 (vs do-nothing $-2,328)
$110	6d	20 Jul 2026	$3.55	3/5	$5,325	$8,739	62%	73%	+$1,421	-$863	6.0%	$-114 (vs do-nothing $-1,860)
$111	10d	24 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,120	$9,534	61%	73%	+$1,357	-$0	0.0%	$1,161 (vs do-nothing $-585)
$111	13d	27 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$4,638	$8,053	61%	73%	+$859	-$0	0.0%	$1,131 (vs do-nothing $-615)
$111	17d	31 Jul 2026	$7.75	4/5	$5,471	$7,160	61%	73%	+$997	-$0	0.0%	$1,346 (vs do-nothing $-400)
$110	8d	22 Jul 2026	$4.00	3/5	$4,500	$7,914	60%	70%	$-294	-$728	5.0%	$21 (vs do-nothing $-1,725)
$109	3d	17 Jul 2026	$3.55	2/5	$7,100	$12,239	59%	72%	+$2,028	-$775	5.3%	$306 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$110	10d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	2/5	$4,320	$9,459	59%	72%	+$911	-$0	0.0%	$1,236 (vs do-nothing $-510)
$110	13d	27 Jul 2026	$7.00	3/5	$4,846	$8,261	59%	72%	+$793	-$0	0.0%	$921 (vs do-nothing $-825)
$110	15d	29 Jul 2026	$6.15	4/5	$4,920	$6,609	59%	72%	$-107	-$110	0.8%	$306 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$110	17d	31 Jul 2026	$8.50	3/5	$4,500	$7,914	59%	72%	+$937	-$0	0.0%	$1,371 (vs do-nothing $-375)
$109	6d	20 Jul 2026	$4.00	3/5	$6,000	$9,414	59%	72%	+$1,519	-$1,028	7.1%	$-279 (vs do-nothing $-2,025)
$109	8d	22 Jul 2026	$4.10	3/5	$4,612	$8,027	58%	69%	$-637	-$998	6.9%	$-249 (vs do-nothing $-1,995)
$109	17d	31 Jul 2026	$8.65	3/5	$4,579	$7,994	58%	71%	+$767	-$0	0.0%	$1,116 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$109	13d	27 Jul 2026	$7.90	3/5	$5,469	$8,884	58%	72%	+$1,186	-$0	0.0%	$891 (vs do-nothing $-855)
$109	10d	24 Jul 2026	$7.65	2/5	$4,590	$9,729	58%	71%	+$934	-$0	0.0%	$1,126 (vs do-nothing $-620)
$108	17d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	3/5	$4,924	$8,338	56%	70%	+$881	-$0	0.0%	$1,011 (vs do-nothing $-735)
$108	13d	27 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$4,708	$8,122	56%	70%	+$123	-$488	3.4%	$261 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)
$108	10d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	2/5	$4,860	$9,999	56%	70%	+$943	-$65	0.4%	$1,016 (vs do-nothing $-730)
$108	3d	17 Jul 2026	$3.95	2/5	$7,900	$13,039	56%	70%	+$1,993	-$895	6.2%	$186 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$108	6d	20 Jul 2026	$4.45	2/5	$4,450	$9,589	55%	70%	+$1,038	-$795	5.5%	$286 (vs do-nothing $-1,460)
$108	8d	22 Jul 2026	$4.10	3/5	$4,612	$8,027	55%	67%	$-1,125	-$1,298	9.0%	$-549 (vs do-nothing $-2,295)
$107	17d	31 Jul 2026	$9.80	3/5	$5,188	$8,603	54%	70%	+$937	-$0	0.0%	$861 (vs do-nothing $-885)
$107	13d	27 Jul 2026	$7.50	3/5	$5,192	$8,607	54%	69%	+$292	-$578	4.0%	$171 (vs do-nothing $-1,575)
$107	10d	24 Jul 2026	$8.55	2/5	$5,130	$10,269	54%	69%	+$939	-$175	1.2%	$906 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$107	8d	22 Jul 2026	$5.35	3/5	$6,019	$9,433	53%	67%	$-237	-$1,223	8.4%	$-474 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$106	17d	31 Jul 2026	$10.25	3/5	$5,426	$8,841	53%	69%	+$839	-$53	0.4%	$696 (vs do-nothing $-1,050)
$107	6d	20 Jul 2026	$5.00	2/5	$5,000	$10,139	52%	69%	+$1,121	-$885	6.1%	$196 (vs do-nothing $-1,550)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-14 21:38