FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $100.64

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.29 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $100.64 UNDERWATER $13.36 (11.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

INTC reports 2026-07-24 (Fri), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (4d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-24.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.29 (banked floor $112.32) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$8,942/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$65/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-8,110	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,471/mo

HEDGE COVER
$65/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$8,942/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $116.29 (probe: $116C 13d) still earns $3,635/mo (41% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,071

Hole (after banked)

$6,039

was $8,110 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$116.29 → $112.32

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 28 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $154.25 (+53%) · daily UBB $136.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$19 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-24: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $116.29 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $117 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

85%

Touch odds

32%

Per cycle

$825

Income / mo

$6,188

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.66/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $5.23–$9.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 517 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $122 (overshoots $4.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	29 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.96/sh	+$478 cycle +$1,303 [+$87…+$670] · 80% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$126	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$1.46/sh	+$729 cycle +$1,554 [-$119…+$1,130] · 69% credit	75% surv 67%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$118	29 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.35/sh	+$176 cycle +$1,001 [-$317…+$295] · 49% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$131	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.07/sh	+$35 cycle +$860 [-$1,016…+$364] · 33% credit	79% surv 73%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$139	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$1.65/sh	-$823 cycle +$2 [-$2,166…-$585] · 7% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $825 debit $823 (100% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,831/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $122 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $122)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$500

Income / mo

$3,750

Buyback gross: $7.99/sh now → $5.65 mid-life (likely $4.86–$9.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $122 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $127 (overshoots $4.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$122	29 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.90/sh	+$448 cycle +$948 [+$172…+$752] · 81% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$133	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.86/sh	+$431 cycle +$931 [-$255…+$1,018] · 67% credit	77% surv 70%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$123	29 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.29/sh	+$146 cycle +$646 [-$213…+$396] · 60% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$136	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.03/sh	+$14 cycle +$514 [-$780…+$565] · 45% credit	79% surv 73%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$140	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$0.92/sh	-$460 cycle +$40 [-$1,395…+$39] · 29% credit	81% surv 77%
budget: banked $500 debit $460 (92% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$40 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,550/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $125 27 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

92%

Touch odds

16%

Per cycle

$385

Income / mo

$2,888

Buyback gross: $8.19/sh now → $5.79 mid-life (likely $4.63–$8.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 225 simulated challenges: the $125 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $130 (overshoots $4.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	29 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.86/sh	+$428 cycle +$813 [+$155…+$771] · 81% credit	67% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$136	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.84/sh	+$418 cycle +$803 [-$179…+$1,048] · 71% credit	76% surv 69%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$126	29 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.25/sh	+$126 cycle +$511 [-$250…+$440] · 63% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$138	14 Aug 2026	20d left	+$0.26/sh	+$129 cycle +$514 [-$518…+$753] · 56% credit	78% surv 72%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$141	14 Aug 2026	20d left	-$0.48/sh	-$240 cycle +$145 [-$980…+$371] · 43% credit	80% surv 75%
budget: banked $385 debit $240 (62% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,984/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (118 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 118 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.054 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,247 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $568

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$120	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.26	5/5	$4,725	$4,660	88%	89%	+$2,136	-$0	0.0%	$767 (vs do-nothing +$200)
$119	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.35	5/5	$5,062	$4,997	87%	89%	+$2,129	-$0	0.0%	$812 (vs do-nothing +$245)
$118	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.50	4/5	$4,500	$5,294	86%	88%	+$1,847	-$0	0.0%	$823 (vs do-nothing +$256)
$119	6d	29 Jul 2026	$1.81	5/5	$4,525	$4,460	85%	87%	+$1,785	-$0	0.0%	$1,042 (vs do-nothing +$475)
$117	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.65	4/5	$4,950	$5,744	85%	87%	+$1,956	-$0	0.0%	$883 (vs do-nothing +$316)
$118	6d	29 Jul 2026	$1.96	5/5	$4,900	$4,835	84%	86%	+$1,853	-$0	0.0%	$1,117 (vs do-nothing +$550)
$116	4d	27 Jul 2026	$1.83	4/5	$5,490	$6,284	83%	86%	+$2,118	-$0	0.0%	$840 (vs do-nothing +$272)
$117	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.14	5/5	$5,350	$5,285	83%	85%	+$1,966	-$0	0.0%	$1,207 (vs do-nothing +$640)
$115	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.00	3/5	$4,500	$6,153	82%	85%	+$1,658	-$0	0.0%	$523 (vs do-nothing $-45)
$118	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.54	5/5	$4,762	$4,697	82%	85%	+$1,638	-$0	0.0%	$1,407 (vs do-nothing +$840)
$116	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.31	4/5	$4,620	$5,414	81%	84%	+$1,618	-$0	0.0%	$1,032 (vs do-nothing +$464)
$117	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.72	5/5	$5,100	$5,035	81%	84%	+$1,691	-$0	0.0%	$1,497 (vs do-nothing +$930)
$114	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.19	3/5	$4,928	$6,580	80%	84%	+$1,740	-$30	0.2%	$280 (vs do-nothing $-288)

Show 105 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 105.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$115	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.52	4/5	$5,040	$5,834	80%	83%	+$1,716	-$0	0.0%	$716 (vs do-nothing +$148)
$116	8d	31 Jul 2026	$2.90	5/5	$5,438	$5,372	79%	83%	+$1,721	-$0	0.0%	$1,443 (vs do-nothing +$875)
$113	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.40	3/5	$5,400	$7,053	79%	83%	+$1,832	-$267	1.8%	$43 (vs do-nothing $-525)
$114	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.72	4/5	$5,440	$6,234	79%	82%	+$1,766	-$0	0.0%	$396 (vs do-nothing $-172)
$115	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.10	4/5	$4,650	$5,444	78%	82%	+$1,411	-$0	0.0%	$948 (vs do-nothing +$380)
$112	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.61	3/5	$5,872	$7,525	77%	81%	+$1,887	-$504	3.5%	$-194 (vs do-nothing $-762)
$113	6d	29 Jul 2026	$2.94	4/5	$5,880	$6,674	77%	81%	+$1,824	-$140	1.0%	$84 (vs do-nothing $-484)
$114	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.35	4/5	$5,025	$5,819	77%	81%	+$1,501	-$0	0.0%	$648 (vs do-nothing +$80)
$111	4d	27 Jul 2026	$2.85	3/5	$6,412	$8,065	76%	80%	+$1,970	-$732	5.0%	$-422 (vs do-nothing $-990)
$112	6d	29 Jul 2026	$3.15	3/5	$4,725	$6,378	76%	80%	+$1,372	-$342	2.4%	$-32 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$113	11d	3 Aug 2026	$3.55	5/5	$4,841	$4,776	75%	81%	+$1,087	-$0	0.0%	$268 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$113	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.55	4/5	$5,325	$6,119	75%	80%	+$1,138	-$0	0.0%	$328 (vs do-nothing $-240)
$110	4d	27 Jul 2026	$3.05	2/5	$4,575	$7,087	74%	79%	+$1,280	-$648	4.5%	$-252 (vs do-nothing $-820)
$111	6d	29 Jul 2026	$3.40	3/5	$5,100	$6,753	74%	79%	+$1,309	-$567	3.9%	$-257 (vs do-nothing $-825)
$112	11d	3 Aug 2026	$3.70	5/5	$5,045	$4,980	74%	79%	+$996	-$295	2.0%	$-157 (vs do-nothing $-725)
$112	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.80	4/5	$5,700	$6,494	73%	79%	+$1,163	-$196	1.4%	$28 (vs do-nothing $-540)
$113	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.70	5/5	$4,700	$4,635	73%	79%	+$1,217	-$0	0.0%	$843 (vs do-nothing +$275)
$114	13d	5 Aug 2026	$4.00	5/5	$4,615	$4,550	73%	77%	$-268	-$0	0.0%	$993 (vs do-nothing +$425)
$111	11d	3 Aug 2026	$3.90	5/5	$5,318	$5,253	72%	78%	+$951	-$695	4.8%	$-557 (vs do-nothing $-1,125)
$110	6d	29 Jul 2026	$3.70	3/5	$5,550	$7,203	72%	78%	+$1,396	-$777	5.4%	$-467 (vs do-nothing $-1,035)
$112	15d	7 Aug 2026	$4.95	5/5	$4,950	$4,885	72%	78%	+$1,222	-$0	0.0%	$468 (vs do-nothing $-100)
$111	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	3/5	$4,556	$6,209	72%	78%	+$873	-$372	2.6%	$-62 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$109	4d	27 Jul 2026	$3.35	2/5	$5,025	$7,537	72%	78%	+$1,367	-$788	5.4%	$-392 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$111	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.25	5/5	$5,250	$5,185	71%	78%	+$1,263	-$20	0.1%	$118 (vs do-nothing $-450)
$110	11d	3 Aug 2026	$4.35	4/5	$4,745	$5,539	71%	78%	+$980	-$776	5.4%	$-552 (vs do-nothing $-1,120)
$110	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.30	3/5	$4,838	$6,490	70%	77%	+$855	-$597	4.1%	$-287 (vs do-nothing $-855)
$109	6d	29 Jul 2026	$3.95	3/5	$5,925	$7,578	70%	77%	+$1,381	-$1,002	6.9%	$-692 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$108	4d	27 Jul 2026	$3.60	2/5	$5,400	$7,912	70%	77%	+$1,347	-$938	6.5%	$-542 (vs do-nothing $-1,110)
$111	13d	5 Aug 2026	$4.20	5/5	$4,846	$4,781	69%	76%	$-971	-$545	3.8%	$-407 (vs do-nothing $-975)
$110	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.55	5/5	$5,550	$5,485	69%	77%	+$1,288	-$370	2.5%	$-232 (vs do-nothing $-800)
$109	11d	3 Aug 2026	$4.30	4/5	$4,691	$5,485	69%	76%	+$634	-$1,196	8.2%	$-972 (vs do-nothing $-1,540)
$109	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	3/5	$5,175	$6,828	69%	76%	+$874	-$807	5.6%	$-497 (vs do-nothing $-1,065)
$108	6d	29 Jul 2026	$4.25	3/5	$6,375	$8,028	69%	76%	+$1,411	-$1,212	8.4%	$-902 (vs do-nothing $-1,470)
$110	13d	5 Aug 2026	$5.00	4/5	$4,615	$5,409	68%	74%	$-312	-$516	3.6%	$-292 (vs do-nothing $-860)
$109	15d	7 Aug 2026	$5.85	4/5	$4,680	$5,474	68%	76%	+$1,038	-$576	4.0%	$-352 (vs do-nothing $-920)
$107	4d	27 Jul 2026	$3.90	2/5	$5,850	$8,362	68%	76%	+$1,369	-$1,078	7.4%	$-682 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)
$108	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.90	3/5	$5,512	$7,165	67%	75%	+$872	-$1,017	7.0%	$-707 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$109	22d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	5/5	$4,670	$4,605	67%	75%	+$962	-$220	1.5%	$-82 (vs do-nothing $-650)
$109	13d	5 Aug 2026	$4.80	5/5	$5,538	$5,473	67%	73%	$-981	-$1,245	8.6%	$-1,107 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$107	6d	29 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$6,675	$8,328	67%	75%	+$1,262	-$1,452	10.0%	$-1,142 (vs do-nothing $-1,710)
$108	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.15	4/5	$4,920	$5,714	66%	75%	+$1,032	-$856	5.9%	$-632 (vs do-nothing $-1,200)
$108	11d	3 Aug 2026	$4.80	4/5	$5,236	$6,030	66%	73%	$-526	-$1,396	9.6%	$-1,172 (vs do-nothing $-1,740)
$106	4d	27 Jul 2026	$4.25	2/5	$6,375	$8,887	66%	74%	+$1,430	-$1,208	8.3%	$-812 (vs do-nothing $-1,380)
$108	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/5	$4,943	$4,878	66%	75%	+$1,018	-$520	3.6%	$-382 (vs do-nothing $-950)
$107	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	3/5	$5,850	$7,503	66%	74%	+$849	-$1,227	8.5%	$-917 (vs do-nothing $-1,485)
$108	13d	5 Aug 2026	$5.25	4/5	$4,846	$5,640	66%	73%	$-670	-$1,216	8.4%	$-992 (vs do-nothing $-1,560)
$107	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.50	4/5	$5,200	$5,994	65%	74%	+$1,051	-$1,116	7.7%	$-892 (vs do-nothing $-1,460)
$106	6d	29 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$4,900	$7,412	65%	74%	+$970	-$1,078	7.4%	$-682 (vs do-nothing $-1,250)
$107	11d	3 Aug 2026	$5.00	4/5	$5,455	$6,248	65%	72%	$-673	-$1,716	11.8%	$-1,492 (vs do-nothing $-2,060)
$107	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.55	5/5	$5,148	$5,082	64%	74%	+$994	-$870	6.0%	$-732 (vs do-nothing $-1,300)
$107	13d	5 Aug 2026	$5.60	4/5	$5,169	$5,963	64%	72%	$-662	-$1,476	10.2%	$-1,252 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$106	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/5	$6,300	$7,953	64%	73%	+$916	-$1,407	9.7%	$-1,097 (vs do-nothing $-1,665)
$105	4d	27 Jul 2026	$4.60	2/5	$6,900	$9,412	64%	73%	+$1,454	-$1,338	9.2%	$-942 (vs do-nothing $-1,510)
$106	15d	7 Aug 2026	$6.85	4/5	$5,480	$6,274	63%	73%	+$1,056	-$1,376	9.5%	$-1,152 (vs do-nothing $-1,720)
$106	11d	3 Aug 2026	$5.35	4/5	$5,836	$6,630	63%	71%	$-676	-$1,976	13.6%	$-1,752 (vs do-nothing $-2,320)
$106	22d	14 Aug 2026	$7.80	5/5	$5,318	$5,253	63%	73%	+$925	-$1,245	8.6%	$-1,107 (vs do-nothing $-1,675)
$106	13d	5 Aug 2026	$5.70	4/5	$5,262	$6,055	63%	72%	$-900	-$1,836	12.7%	$-1,612 (vs do-nothing $-2,180)
$105	6d	29 Jul 2026	$5.25	2/5	$5,250	$7,762	63%	73%	+$977	-$1,208	8.3%	$-812 (vs do-nothing $-1,380)
$105	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.90	3/5	$6,638	$8,290	62%	72%	+$849	-$1,617	11.2%	$-1,307 (vs do-nothing $-1,875)
$105	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	4/5	$5,800	$6,594	62%	73%	+$1,086	-$1,616	11.1%	$-1,392 (vs do-nothing $-1,960)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 23:50