FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $100.44

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.08 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $100.44 UNDERWATER $13.56 (11.9% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $116.08 (banked floor $112.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$6,118/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$55/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-8,107	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,059/mo

HEDGE COVER
$55/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$6,118/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
7.7 mo to earn back $47,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $116.08 (probe: $116C 14d) still earns $1,843/mo (30% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,071

Hole (after banked)

$6,036

was $8,107 · 26% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$116.08 → $112.11

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 30 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $154.08 (+53%) · daily UBB $133.94 · 1-wk expected move ±$12 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $116.08 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $117 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

83%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$790

Income / mo

$1,693

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.47/sh now → $5.28 mid-life (likely $5.04–$7.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.58/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 835 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 14, at $120 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.93/sh	+$464 cycle +$1,254 [+$184…+$664] · 92% credit	66% surv 53%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$122	21 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.82/sh	+$408 cycle +$1,198 [+$31…+$607] · 78% credit	71% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$123	21 Aug 2026	21d left	+$0.37/sh	+$187 cycle +$977 [-$234…+$381] · 51% credit	72% surv 63%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.01/sh	+$7 cycle +$797 [-$337…+$159] · 37% credit	69% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$129	21 Aug 2026	21d left	-$1.36/sh	-$679 cycle +$111 [-$1,258…-$566] · 8% credit	77% surv 72%
budget: banked $790 debit $679 (86% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$111 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,804/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $124 5 Aug 2026 (12d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $124)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

Income / mo

$12

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$130	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.20/sh	+$102 cycle +$107 [-$242…+$699] · 61% credit	72% surv 63%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$124	7 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.82/sh	-$411 cycle -$406 [-$598…-$53] · 22% credit	65% surv 52%

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $125 29 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $125)

98%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$50

Income / mo

$300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$125	31 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.51/sh	+$256 cycle +$306 [+$331…+$512] · 100% credit	66% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$126	31 Jul 2026	4d left	+$0.26/sh	+$129 cycle +$179 [+$176…+$367] · 94% credit	67% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$143	21 Aug 2026	26d left	+$0.16/sh	+$82 cycle +$132 [-$200…+$442] · 63% credit	81% surv 77%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (72 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 72 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.055 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,248 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-407

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$110	5d	29 Jul 2026	$1.02	5/5	$3,060	$3,005	81%	83%	+$477	-$2,528	17.4%	$-2,387 (vs do-nothing $-1,980)
$111	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.51	5/5	$3,236	$3,180	79%	82%	+$505	-$1,783	12.3%	$-1,642 (vs do-nothing $-1,235)
$109	5d	29 Jul 2026	$1.18	5/5	$3,540	$3,485	79%	82%	+$475	-$2,948	20.3%	$-2,807 (vs do-nothing $-2,400)
$110	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.70	5/5	$3,643	$3,588	77%	81%	+$528	-$2,188	15.1%	$-2,047 (vs do-nothing $-1,640)
$108	5d	29 Jul 2026	$1.34	4/5	$3,216	$3,455	76%	80%	+$316	-$2,695	18.6%	$-2,663 (vs do-nothing $-2,256)
$109	7d	31 Jul 2026	$1.88	4/5	$3,223	$3,462	75%	79%	+$386	-$2,079	14.3%	$-2,047 (vs do-nothing $-1,640)
$107	5d	29 Jul 2026	$1.55	4/5	$3,720	$3,959	74%	78%	+$303	-$3,011	20.8%	$-2,979 (vs do-nothing $-2,572)
$108	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.08	4/5	$3,566	$3,804	73%	78%	+$344	-$2,399	16.5%	$-2,367 (vs do-nothing $-1,960)
$110	14d	7 Aug 2026	$2.90	5/5	$3,107	$3,052	73%	78%	+$355	-$1,588	11.0%	$-1,447 (vs do-nothing $-1,040)
$109	14d	7 Aug 2026	$3.10	5/5	$3,321	$3,266	71%	77%	+$295	-$1,988	13.7%	$-1,847 (vs do-nothing $-1,440)
$106	5d	29 Jul 2026	$1.79	3/5	$3,222	$3,755	71%	76%	+$214	-$2,486	17.1%	$-2,564 (vs do-nothing $-2,157)
$107	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.33	4/5	$3,994	$4,233	71%	76%	+$343	-$2,699	18.6%	$-2,667 (vs do-nothing $-2,260)
$108	14d	7 Aug 2026	$3.35	5/5	$3,589	$3,534	69%	75%	+$267	-$2,363	16.3%	$-2,222 (vs do-nothing $-1,815)

Show 59 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$106	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.59	3/5	$3,330	$3,863	68%	74%	+$235	-$2,246	15.5%	$-2,324 (vs do-nothing $-1,917)
$105	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.04	3/5	$3,672	$4,205	68%	74%	+$156	-$2,711	18.7%	$-2,789 (vs do-nothing $-2,382)
$107	12d	5 Aug 2026	$2.69	5/5	$3,362	$3,307	67%	75%	$-791	-$3,193	22.0%	$-3,052 (vs do-nothing $-2,645)
$107	14d	7 Aug 2026	$3.65	4/5	$3,129	$3,367	67%	74%	+$216	-$2,171	15.0%	$-2,139 (vs do-nothing $-1,732)
$108	21d	14 Aug 2026	$4.50	5/5	$3,214	$3,159	67%	74%	+$106	-$1,788	12.3%	$-1,647 (vs do-nothing $-1,240)
$106	10d	3 Aug 2026	$2.28	5/5	$3,420	$3,365	67%	74%	$-863	-$3,898	26.9%	$-3,757 (vs do-nothing $-3,350)
$107	21d	14 Aug 2026	$4.80	5/5	$3,429	$3,373	66%	73%	+$91	-$2,138	14.7%	$-1,997 (vs do-nothing $-1,590)
$105	7d	31 Jul 2026	$2.86	3/5	$3,677	$4,210	66%	73%	+$187	-$2,465	17.0%	$-2,543 (vs do-nothing $-2,136)
$106	12d	5 Aug 2026	$3.00	5/5	$3,750	$3,695	66%	73%	$-799	-$3,538	24.4%	$-3,397 (vs do-nothing $-2,990)
$106	14d	7 Aug 2026	$3.95	4/5	$3,386	$3,624	65%	73%	+$199	-$2,451	16.9%	$-2,419 (vs do-nothing $-2,012)
$105	10d	3 Aug 2026	$2.72	4/5	$3,264	$3,503	65%	72%	$-536	-$3,343	23.1%	$-3,311 (vs do-nothing $-2,904)
$104	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.32	3/5	$4,176	$4,709	65%	72%	+$84	-$2,927	20.2%	$-3,005 (vs do-nothing $-2,598)
$106	21d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	5/5	$3,643	$3,588	64%	72%	+$62	-$2,488	17.2%	$-2,347 (vs do-nothing $-1,940)
$106	28d	21 Aug 2026	$6.25	5/5	$3,348	$3,293	64%	73%	+$268	-$1,913	13.2%	$-1,772 (vs do-nothing $-1,365)
$105	12d	5 Aug 2026	$2.86	5/5	$3,575	$3,520	63%	72%	$-1,399	-$4,108	28.3%	$-3,967 (vs do-nothing $-3,560)
$105	14d	7 Aug 2026	$4.20	4/5	$3,600	$3,839	63%	72%	+$119	-$2,751	19.0%	$-2,719 (vs do-nothing $-2,312)
$104	7d	31 Jul 2026	$3.05	3/5	$3,921	$4,454	63%	71%	$-3	-$2,708	18.7%	$-2,786 (vs do-nothing $-2,379)
$105	21d	14 Aug 2026	$5.45	4/5	$3,114	$3,353	62%	71%	+$45	-$2,251	15.5%	$-2,219 (vs do-nothing $-1,812)
$104	10d	3 Aug 2026	$2.80	4/5	$3,360	$3,599	62%	72%	$-850	-$3,711	25.6%	$-3,679 (vs do-nothing $-3,272)
$105	28d	21 Aug 2026	$6.70	5/5	$3,589	$3,534	62%	72%	+$314	-$2,188	15.1%	$-2,047 (vs do-nothing $-1,640)
$104	12d	5 Aug 2026	$2.90	5/5	$3,625	$3,570	61%	70%	$-1,806	-$4,588	31.6%	$-4,447 (vs do-nothing $-4,040)
$104	14d	7 Aug 2026	$4.55	4/5	$3,900	$4,139	61%	71%	+$107	-$3,011	20.8%	$-2,979 (vs do-nothing $-2,572)
$103	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.62	2/5	$3,144	$3,971	61%	70%	$-16	-$2,091	14.4%	$-2,279 (vs do-nothing $-1,872)
$104	21d	14 Aug 2026	$5.80	4/5	$3,314	$3,553	61%	70%	+$28	-$2,511	17.3%	$-2,479 (vs do-nothing $-2,072)
$104	28d	21 Aug 2026	$7.00	5/5	$3,750	$3,695	60%	71%	+$269	-$2,538	17.5%	$-2,397 (vs do-nothing $-1,990)
$103	7d	31 Jul 2026	$3.40	3/5	$4,371	$4,904	60%	70%	$-29	-$2,903	20.0%	$-2,981 (vs do-nothing $-2,574)
$103	10d	3 Aug 2026	$3.40	3/5	$3,060	$3,593	60%	69%	$-434	-$2,903	20.0%	$-2,981 (vs do-nothing $-2,574)
$103	12d	5 Aug 2026	$4.35	3/5	$3,262	$3,795	59%	70%	$-290	-$2,618	18.1%	$-2,696 (vs do-nothing $-2,289)
$103	14d	7 Aug 2026	$4.90	3/5	$3,150	$3,683	59%	70%	+$54	-$2,453	16.9%	$-2,531 (vs do-nothing $-2,124)
$103	28d	21 Aug 2026	$7.35	4/5	$3,150	$3,389	59%	70%	+$193	-$2,291	15.8%	$-2,259 (vs do-nothing $-1,852)
$103	21d	14 Aug 2026	$6.15	4/5	$3,514	$3,753	59%	69%	+$0	-$2,771	19.1%	$-2,739 (vs do-nothing $-2,332)
$102	5d	29 Jul 2026	$2.94	2/5	$3,528	$4,355	58%	68%	$-113	-$2,227	15.4%	$-2,415 (vs do-nothing $-2,008)
$102	7d	31 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/5	$3,129	$3,955	57%	69%	+$131	-$2,085	14.4%	$-2,273 (vs do-nothing $-1,866)
$102	28d	21 Aug 2026	$7.80	4/5	$3,343	$3,581	57%	69%	+$205	-$2,511	17.3%	$-2,479 (vs do-nothing $-2,072)
$102	21d	14 Aug 2026	$6.55	4/5	$3,743	$3,982	57%	68%	$-11	-$3,011	20.8%	$-2,979 (vs do-nothing $-2,572)
$102	10d	3 Aug 2026	$3.50	3/5	$3,150	$3,683	57%	68%	$-710	-$3,173	21.9%	$-3,251 (vs do-nothing $-2,844)
$102	12d	5 Aug 2026	$3.75	4/5	$3,750	$3,989	57%	69%	$-1,044	-$4,131	28.5%	$-4,099 (vs do-nothing $-3,692)
$102	14d	7 Aug 2026	$5.30	3/5	$3,407	$3,940	57%	68%	+$43	-$2,633	18.2%	$-2,711 (vs do-nothing $-2,304)
$101	28d	21 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$3,493	$3,732	56%	68%	+$166	-$2,771	19.1%	$-2,739 (vs do-nothing $-2,332)
$101	21d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	4/5	$3,771	$4,010	55%	67%	$-234	-$3,391	23.4%	$-3,359 (vs do-nothing $-2,952)
$101	14d	7 Aug 2026	$5.70	3/5	$3,664	$4,197	55%	67%	+$14	-$2,813	19.4%	$-2,891 (vs do-nothing $-2,484)
$101	12d	5 Aug 2026	$4.20	3/5	$3,150	$3,683	55%	66%	$-777	-$3,263	22.5%	$-3,341 (vs do-nothing $-2,934)
$101	10d	3 Aug 2026	$4.40	3/5	$3,960	$4,493	54%	67%	$-297	-$3,203	22.1%	$-3,281 (vs do-nothing $-2,874)
$101	7d	31 Jul 2026	$4.15	2/5	$3,557	$4,384	54%	67%	+$183	-$2,185	15.1%	$-2,373 (vs do-nothing $-1,966)
$101	5d	29 Jul 2026	$3.20	2/5	$3,840	$4,667	54%	66%	$-333	-$2,375	16.4%	$-2,563 (vs do-nothing $-2,156)
$100	28d	21 Aug 2026	$8.60	4/5	$3,686	$3,924	54%	68%	+$161	-$2,991	20.6%	$-2,959 (vs do-nothing $-2,552)
$100	21d	14 Aug 2026	$7.40	3/5	$3,171	$3,704	53%	67%	$-31	-$2,603	18.0%	$-2,681 (vs do-nothing $-2,274)
$100	14d	7 Aug 2026	$6.15	3/5	$3,954	$4,486	52%	66%	$-1	-$2,978	20.5%	$-3,056 (vs do-nothing $-2,649)
$99	28d	21 Aug 2026	$9.00	4/5	$3,857	$4,096	52%	67%	+$126	-$3,231	22.3%	$-3,199 (vs do-nothing $-2,792)
$100	12d	5 Aug 2026	$5.45	3/5	$4,088	$4,620	52%	66%	$-193	-$3,188	22.0%	$-3,266 (vs do-nothing $-2,859)
$100	10d	3 Aug 2026	$4.75	3/5	$4,275	$4,808	52%	65%	$-410	-$3,398	23.4%	$-3,476 (vs do-nothing $-3,069)
$99	21d	14 Aug 2026	$7.80	3/5	$3,343	$3,876	52%	66%	$-67	-$2,783	19.2%	$-2,861 (vs do-nothing $-2,454)
$100	7d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	2/5	$3,943	$4,769	51%	66%	+$160	-$2,295	15.8%	$-2,483 (vs do-nothing $-2,076)
$100	5d	29 Jul 2026	$3.55	2/5	$4,260	$5,087	51%	64%	$-495	-$2,505	17.3%	$-2,693 (vs do-nothing $-2,286)
$99	14d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	3/5	$4,211	$4,743	50%	65%	$-66	-$3,158	21.8%	$-3,236 (vs do-nothing $-2,829)
$99	12d	5 Aug 2026	$5.00	3/5	$3,750	$4,283	50%	65%	$-905	-$3,623	25.0%	$-3,701 (vs do-nothing $-3,294)
$99	10d	3 Aug 2026	$4.55	3/5	$4,095	$4,628	49%	63%	$-1,050	-$3,758	25.9%	$-3,836 (vs do-nothing $-3,429)
$99	7d	31 Jul 2026	$5.00	2/5	$4,286	$5,112	48%	64%	+$61	-$2,415	16.7%	$-2,603 (vs do-nothing $-2,196)
$99	5d	29 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/5	$4,800	$5,627	47%	62%	$-588	-$2,615	18.0%	$-2,803 (vs do-nothing $-2,396)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-24 21:40