FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $88.35

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $114.64 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $88.35 UNDERWATER $25.65 (22.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $114.64 (banked floor $110.69) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$7,154/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$51/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-13,730	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$3,577/mo

HEDGE COVER
$51/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$7,154/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
6.6 mo to earn back $47,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $114.64 (probe: $115C 13d) brings only $773/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,071

Hole (after banked)

$11,659

was $13,730 · 15% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$648

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$114.64 → $110.69

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $110C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.30	$648	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 43 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $151.77 (+72%) · daily UBB $131.99 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $102 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 95%, breach 5%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($3,577/mo); it brings $3,850/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $98/3d for $7,400/mo, but breach risk rises to 11% (+6pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 1 × $112/3d (99+% survival, $150/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $5,935 (41% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 0.8 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-13,750 and cuts bleed by $51/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 5 × $102, 95% survival, $3,850/mo (E[net] $2,273/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 3d	5 × $102	95%	$3,850	$2,273
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 10d	5 × $100	82%	$3,825	$583

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $385 with probability 93%; on the 7% touch you roll, paying $2,366 to close and taking $443 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,923) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $2,273/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $102 (50% normal), 95% survival, breach 5%, $3,850/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $104 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 97% (breach 5% → 3%) for $1,100/mo less (29% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $88.35 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $112

31 Jul

26.8%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-1pp

$15

$150

-$3,700

$249

Sell 1 × $112 26.8% OTM over spot $88.35 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.16 mid)

= $15 credit for the 3d cycle → $150/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $112)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $112.17)

99+%

EV / mo

+$150

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$631/mo

median; plan ~$429/mo after 68% keep · $1,870 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.0], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$505

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$124 @ 81% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.35/sh now → $5.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$112	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.36/sh	+$36 cycle +$51	75% surv 52%	-$885 NOT cap gain +$12,845
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$14 cycle +$29	81% surv 74%	+$1,425 SAFE cap gain +$15,155
reaches SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$150/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$771/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $112 is $3 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$249
… as % of IC ($14,500)	1.7%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-2,748

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $112.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $110.88	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $111-112.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $112.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$112.00 (3.5σ)	$15	$-921	+$12,809	-$41
+2.5%	$114.80 (3.9σ)	$-265	$-33	+$13,697	-$241
+5%	$117.60 (4.3σ)	$-545	$55	+$13,785	-$241

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $112): -$249

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$32

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-38 (+$13,692 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-241, the opportunity cost of earning $150/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $104

31 Jul

17.7%

97%hist 100%

7%hist 1%

+0pp

$275

$2,750

-$1,100

$5,045

Sell 5 × $104 17.7% OTM over spot $88.35 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.58 mid)

= $275 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,750/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $104)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $104.58)

97%

EV / mo

+$2,518

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+0pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,074/mo

median; plan ~$730/mo after 68% keep · $2,312 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,138

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$118 @ 83% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.82/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $4.23–$7.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 124 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $107 (overshoots $2.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$104	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.59/sh	+$293 cycle +$568 [+$170…+$644] · 81% credit	75% surv 52%	-$4,844 NOT cap gain +$8,886
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$105	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.19/sh	+$93 cycle +$368 [-$95…+$406] · 69% credit	76% surv 55%	-$4,698 NOT cap gain +$9,032
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$115	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.55/sh	+$275 cycle +$550 [-$450…+$644] · 62% credit	80% surv 73%	+$799 SAFE cap gain +$14,529
Max even-money escape in the band	~$116	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.29/sh	+$147 cycle +$422 [-$608…+$506] · 56% credit	81% surv 75%	+$1,202 SAFE cap gain +$14,932
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$118	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.38/sh	-$192 cycle +$83 [-$1,031…+$153] · 38% credit	83% surv 77%	+$1,926 SAFE cap gain +$15,656
budget: banked $275 debit $192 (70% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$83 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,028/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,750/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	-23%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	38% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,699/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $104 is $11 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,045
… as % of IC ($14,500)	34.8%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	10.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,745

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.55 collected) or spot ≥ $104.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $103-104.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $104.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$104.00 (2.3σ)	$275	$-5,137	+$8,593	-$5
+2.5%	$106.60 (2.7σ)	$-1,025	$-5,055	+$8,675	-$1,305
+5%	$109.20 (3.1σ)	$-2,325	$-4,973	+$8,757	-$2,605
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-4,725	$-4,822	+$8,908	-$5,005

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$5,045

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,802 (+$8,928 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,005, the opportunity cost of earning $2,750/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $102

31 Jul

15.4%

95%hist 100%

10%hist 5%

+4pp

$385

$3,850

—

$5,935

Sell 5 × $102 15.4% OTM over spot $88.35 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.81 mid)

= $385 credit for the 3d cycle → $3,850/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $102)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $102.81)

96%

EV / mo

+$3,422

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,630/mo

median; plan ~$1,108/mo after 68% keep · $2,995 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,981

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$117 @ 84% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $6.69/sh now → $4.73 mid-life (likely $4.27–$8.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 205 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $105 (overshoots $3.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$102	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.64/sh	+$318 cycle +$703 [+$8…+$598] · 76% credit	75% surv 52%	-$5,772 NOT cap gain +$7,958
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$103	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.24/sh	+$118 cycle +$503 [-$259…+$380] · 62% credit	76% surv 55%	-$5,626 NOT cap gain +$8,104
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$112	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.89/sh	+$443 cycle +$828 [-$653…+$766] · 60% credit	80% surv 72%	-$518 NOT cap gain +$13,212
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.32/sh	+$161 cycle +$546 [-$991…+$479] · 47% credit	81% surv 75%	+$263 SAFE cap gain +$13,993
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$117	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.61/sh	-$305 cycle +$80 [-$1,598…-$11] · 24% credit	84% surv 79%	+$1,392 SAFE cap gain +$15,122
budget: banked $385 debit $305 (79% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$80 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,811/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,850/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	+8%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	54% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,799/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $102 is $13 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,935
… as % of IC ($14,500)	40.9%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	12.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,750

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $102.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $100.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $101-102.81	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $102.81	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$102.00 (2.0σ)	$385	$-6,090	+$7,640	+$105
+2.5%	$104.55 (2.4σ)	$-890	$-6,010	+$7,720	-$1,170
+5%	$107.10 (2.8σ)	$-2,165	$-5,929	+$7,801	-$2,445
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-5,615	$-5,712	+$8,018	-$5,895

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$5,935

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,692 (+$8,038 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,895, the opportunity cost of earning $3,850/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $99

31 Jul

12.1%

91%hist 100%

19%hist 5%

+10pp

$625

$6,250

+$2,400

$7,195

Sell 5 × $99 12.1% OTM over spot $88.35 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.30 mid)

= $625 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,250/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $100.30)

93%

EV / mo

+$5,198

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+10pp

76% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,866/mo

median; plan ~$1,949/mo after 68% keep · $5,633 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,672

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$116 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $6.49/sh now → $4.59 mid-life (likely $4.30–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 382 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $102 (overshoots $2.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.71/sh	+$354 cycle +$979 [-$3…+$593] · 75% credit	75% surv 52%	-$7,091 NOT cap gain +$6,639
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$107	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.79/sh	+$897 cycle +$1,522 [-$94…+$1,166] · 71% credit	78% surv 68%	-$2,481 NOT cap gain +$11,249
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.31/sh	+$154 cycle +$779 [-$244…+$380] · 55% credit	76% surv 55%	-$6,945 NOT cap gain +$6,785
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.36/sh	+$178 cycle +$803 [-$961…+$412] · 42% credit	82% surv 75%	-$1,074 NOT cap gain +$12,656
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$116	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.03/sh	-$513 cycle +$112 [-$1,846…-$309] · 12% credit	85% surv 82%	+$891 SAFE cap gain +$14,621
budget: banked $625 debit $513 (82% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$112 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,432/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,250/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	+75%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	87% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$6,199/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $99 is $16 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,195
… as % of IC ($14,500)	49.6%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	15.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,755

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $100.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-100.30	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.30	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.6σ)	$625	$-7,445	+$6,285	+$345
+2.5%	$101.47 (1.9σ)	$-612	$-7,367	+$6,363	-$892
+5%	$103.95 (2.3σ)	$-1,850	$-7,289	+$6,441	-$2,130
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-6,875	$-6,972	+$6,758	-$7,155

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$7,195

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,952 (+$6,778 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,155, the opportunity cost of earning $6,250/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $98

31 Jul

10.9%

89%hist 99%

23%hist 13%

+8pp

$740

$7,400

+$3,550

$7,580

Sell 5 × $98 10.9% OTM over spot $88.35 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.55 mid)

= $740 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $98)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $99.55)

92%

EV / mo

+$5,994

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

78% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,532/mo

median; plan ~$2,402/mo after 68% keep · $6,062 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 78% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,533

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$116 @ 86% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $6.43/sh now → $4.55 mid-life (likely $4.69–$8.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 469 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $101 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$98	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.73/sh	+$365 cycle +$1,105 [-$20…+$559] · 72% credit	75% surv 52%	-$7,496 NOT cap gain +$6,234
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$106	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.80/sh	+$900 cycle +$1,640 [-$98…+$1,038] · 70% credit	78% surv 68%	-$2,895 NOT cap gain +$10,835
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.33/sh	+$165 cycle +$905 [-$283…+$332] · 53% credit	76% surv 55%	-$7,351 NOT cap gain +$6,379
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.01/sh	+$5 cycle +$745 [-$1,214…+$85] · 31% credit	82% surv 76%	-$1,133 NOT cap gain +$12,597
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$116	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.27/sh	-$634 cycle +$106 [-$2,035…-$598] · 5% credit	86% surv 83%	+$886 SAFE cap gain +$14,616
budget: banked $740 debit $634 (86% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$106 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,236/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,400/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	+107%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,349/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $98 is $17 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,580
… as % of IC ($14,500)	52.3%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	16.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,765

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.48 collected) or spot ≥ $99.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $97.02	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $97-99.55	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.55	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$98.00 (1.4σ)	$740	$-7,861	+$5,869	+$460
+2.5%	$100.45 (1.8σ)	$-485	$-7,784	+$5,946	-$765
+5%	$102.90 (2.1σ)	$-1,710	$-7,707	+$6,023	-$1,990
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-7,260	$-7,357	+$6,373	-$7,540

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$7,580

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,337 (+$6,393 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,540, the opportunity cost of earning $7,400/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 10d · E[net] $583/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $100 (50% normal), 82% survival, breach 18%, $3,825/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $104 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 89% (breach 18% → 11%) for $1,320/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $88.35 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

1 × $117

7 Aug

10d

32.4%

97%hist 100%

6%hist 1%

-0pp

$40

$120

-$3,705

Sell 1 × $117 32.4% OTM over spot $88.35 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.46 mid)

= $40 credit for the 10d cycle → $120/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $117)

97%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $117.45)

97%

EV / mo

+$97

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$709/mo

median; plan ~$482/mo after 68% keep · $1,744 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.9], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$671

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$123 @ 76% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.06/sh now → $7.11 mid-life (likely $4.75–$8.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 86 simulated challenges: the $117 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $120 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (1 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$122	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.12/sh	+$12 cycle +$52 [-$13…+$232] · 73% credit	75% surv 63%	+$1,185 SAFE cap gain +$14,915
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$123	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.34/sh	-$34 cycle +$6 [-$65…+$182] · 64% credit	76% surv 64%	+$1,270 SAFE cap gain +$15,000
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$117	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.67/sh	-$167 cycle -$127 [-$174…+$14] · 28% credit	69% surv 52%	+$395 SAFE cap gain +$14,125

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$120/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$741/mo

Downside budget

✓ $117 is at/above CC-SS $114.64: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (1 ct)	$-2,752

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $117.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $117)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $115.83	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $116-117.45	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $117.45	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$117.00 (2.3σ)	$40	$561	+$14,291	+$284
+2.5%	$119.92 (2.5σ)	$-252	$654	+$14,384	+$284
+5%	$122.85 (2.8σ)	$-545	$746	+$14,476	+$284

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (1 × $117): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$32

Total Position P&L @ SS: $211 (+$13,941 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$8, the opportunity cost of earning $120/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $105

7 Aug

10d

18.8%

90%hist 100%

20%hist 13%

+3pp

$760

$2,280

-$1,545

$4,060

Sell 5 × $105 18.8% OTM over spot $88.35 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.59 mid)

= $760 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,280/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $105)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $106.59)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,705

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 69% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,493/mo

median; plan ~$1,016/mo after 68% keep · $3,580 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.3], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,432

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$115 @ 80% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.03/sh now → $6.38 mid-life (likely $5.73–$9.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 443 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $108 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$110	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.53/sh	+$267 cycle +$1,027 [-$272…+$673] · 61% credit	75% surv 63%	-$1,382 NOT cap gain +$12,348
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.08/sh	+$39 cycle +$799 [-$529…+$439] · 46% credit	76% surv 65%	-$1,078 NOT cap gain +$12,652
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$105	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.12/sh	-$561 cycle +$199 [-$985…-$240] · 15% credit	69% surv 52%	-$4,681 NOT cap gain +$9,049
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$115	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.45/sh	-$727 cycle +$33 [-$1,421…-$409] · 14% credit	80% surv 72%	+$282 SAFE cap gain +$14,012
budget: banked $760 debit $727 (96% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$33 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,893/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,280/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	-36%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	32% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,229/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $105 is $10 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,060
… as % of IC ($14,500)	28.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	8.6%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,767

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.52 collected) or spot ≥ $106.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $103.95	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $104-106.59	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $106.59	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$105.00 (1.3σ)	$760	$-4,121	+$9,609	+$480
+2.5%	$107.62 (1.5σ)	$-552	$-4,038	+$9,692	-$832
+5%	$110.25 (1.8σ)	$-1,865	$-3,955	+$9,775	-$2,145
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-3,740	$-3,837	+$9,893	-$4,020

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$4,060

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,817 (+$9,913 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,020, the opportunity cost of earning $2,280/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $104

7 Aug

10d

17.7%

89%hist 99%

23%hist 13%

+5pp

$835

$2,505

-$1,320

$4,485

Sell 5 × $104 17.7% OTM over spot $88.35 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.76 mid)

= $835 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,505/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $104)

89%

Breach risk

11%

POP (stays ≤ $105.76)

91%

EV / mo

+$1,822

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

74% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,655/mo

median; plan ~$1,125/mo after 68% keep · $4,430 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.2], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

17%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,327

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 80% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $8.94/sh now → $6.32 mid-life (likely $5.34–$9.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 499 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $107 (overshoots $2.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$108	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.72/sh	+$359 cycle +$1,194 [-$235…+$815] · 63% credit	75% surv 62%	-$2,012 NOT cap gain +$11,718
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.11/sh	+$54 cycle +$889 [-$604…+$502] · 47% credit	76% surv 65%	-$1,521 NOT cap gain +$12,209
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$104	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.08/sh	-$540 cycle +$295 [-$1,024…-$185] · 18% credit	69% surv 52%	-$5,117 NOT cap gain +$8,613
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.42/sh	-$711 cycle +$124 [-$1,517…-$296] · 14% credit	80% surv 72%	-$159 NOT cap gain +$13,571
budget: banked $835 debit $711 (85% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$124 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,870/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,505/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,454/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $104 is $11 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$4,485
… as % of IC ($14,500)	30.9%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	9.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,775

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.67 collected) or spot ≥ $105.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $103-105.76	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.76	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$104.00 (1.3σ)	$835	$-4,577	+$9,153	+$555
+2.5%	$106.60 (1.5σ)	$-465	$-4,495	+$9,235	-$745
+5%	$109.20 (1.7σ)	$-1,765	$-4,413	+$9,317	-$2,045
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-4,165	$-4,262	+$9,468	-$4,445

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$4,485

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,242 (+$9,488 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,445, the opportunity cost of earning $2,505/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $100

7 Aug

10d

13.2%

82%hist 99%

38%hist 18%

+7pp

$1,275

$3,825

—

$6,045

Sell 5 × $100 13.2% OTM over spot $88.35 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.65 mid)

= $1,275 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,825/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

82%

Breach risk

18%

POP (stays ≤ $102.66)

86%

EV / mo

+$2,294

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

76% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,340/mo

median; plan ~$1,591/mo after 68% keep · $5,179 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-3.0], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

29%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,765

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 84% POP

79% survival

Buyback gross: $8.60/sh now → $6.08 mid-life (likely $6.11–$9.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 863 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $103 (overshoots $2.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$1.12/sh	+$558 cycle +$1,833 [-$101…+$743] · 70% credit	74% surv 61%	-$3,765 NOT cap gain +$9,965
Max even-money escape in the band	~$106	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.21/sh	+$106 cycle +$1,381 [-$631…+$264] · 36% credit	76% surv 65%	-$3,154 NOT cap gain +$10,576
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.92/sh	-$460 cycle +$815 [-$1,007…-$332] · 12% credit	69% surv 52%	-$6,723 NOT cap gain +$7,007
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$2.48/sh	-$1,240 cycle +$35 [-$2,260…-$1,213] · 2% credit	84% surv 79%	-$249 NOT cap gain +$13,481
budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,240 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$35 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,842/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,825/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,774/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $100 is $15 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,045
… as % of IC ($14,500)	41.7%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	12.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,782

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $102.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-102.66	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $102.66	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,275	$-6,263	+$7,467	+$995
+2.5%	$102.50 (1.1σ)	$25	$-6,184	+$7,546	-$255
+5%	$105.00 (1.3σ)	$-1,225	$-6,106	+$7,624	-$1,505
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-5,725	$-5,822	+$7,908	-$6,005

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$6,045

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,802 (+$7,928 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,005, the opportunity cost of earning $3,825/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $93

7 Aug

10d

5.3%

66%hist 80%

71%hist 59%

+11pp

$2,450

$7,350

+$3,525

$8,370

Sell 5 × $93 5.3% OTM over spot $88.35 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $5.05 mid)

= $2,450 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,350/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $93)

66%

Breach risk

34%

POP (stays ≤ $98.05)

78%

EV / mo

+$3,428

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+11pp

81% whole by 9mo vs 70% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$3,818/mo

median; plan ~$2,596/mo after 68% keep · $6,552 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

57%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$377

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$115 @ 90% POP

89% survival

Buyback gross: $7.99/sh now → $5.65 mid-life (likely $7.09–$9.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,701 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $95 (overshoots $2.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$96	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$1.46/sh	+$728 cycle +$3,178 [-$81…+$447] · 68% credit	74% surv 61%	-$6,407 NOT cap gain +$7,323
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.00/sh	+$1 cycle +$2,451 [-$938…-$341] · 13% credit	77% surv 68%	-$5,273 NOT cap gain +$8,457
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$93	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$0.66/sh	-$331 cycle +$2,119 [-$1,019…-$575] · 6% credit	69% surv 52%	-$9,139 NOT cap gain +$4,591
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$115	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$3.82/sh	-$1,911 cycle +$539 [-$3,370…-$2,446]	90% surv 89%	+$788 SAFE cap gain +$14,518
budget: banked $2,450 debit $1,911 (78% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$539 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,447/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,350/mo
vs 50% target ($3,577/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($7,154/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$7,299/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $93 is $22 below CC-SS $114.64: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,370
… as % of IC ($14,500)	57.7%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-13,805

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.23/sh (~25% of the $4.90 collected) or spot ≥ $98.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $131.99 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $92.07	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $92-98.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $98.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$93.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,450	$-8,809	+$4,921	+$2,170
+2.5%	$95.32 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,288	$-8,735	+$4,995	+$1,008
+5%	$97.65 (≤1σ, normal week)	$125	$-8,662	+$5,068	-$155
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-8,050	$-8,147	+$5,583	-$8,330

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $114.64, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,730

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,973

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93): -$8,370

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,127 (+$5,603 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,330, the opportunity cost of earning $7,350/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (88 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 88 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.063 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,973 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $203

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$102	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.77	5/5	$3,850	$3,799	95%	96%	+$3,422	-$5,935	40.9%	$-5,692 (vs do-nothing $-5,895)
$101	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.93	4/5	$3,720	$3,837	94%	95%	+$3,256	-$5,084	35.1%	$-4,849 (vs do-nothing $-5,052)
$100	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.11	4/5	$4,440	$4,557	92%	94%	+$3,814	-$5,412	37.3%	$-5,177 (vs do-nothing $-5,380)
$99	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.25	3/5	$3,750	$4,035	91%	93%	+$3,119	-$4,317	29.8%	$-4,090 (vs do-nothing $-4,293)
$98	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.48	3/5	$4,440	$4,725	89%	92%	+$3,597	-$4,548	31.4%	$-4,321 (vs do-nothing $-4,524)
$99	6d	3 Aug 2026	$1.51	5/5	$3,775	$3,724	87%	90%	+$2,678	-$7,065	48.7%	$-6,822 (vs do-nothing $-7,025)
$97	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.81	2/5	$3,620	$4,073	86%	90%	+$2,874	-$3,166	21.8%	$-2,947 (vs do-nothing $-3,150)
$100	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.95	5/5	$3,656	$3,606	85%	88%	+$2,377	-$6,345	43.8%	$-6,102 (vs do-nothing $-6,305)
$98	6d	3 Aug 2026	$1.75	5/5	$4,375	$4,324	85%	88%	+$3,013	-$7,445	51.3%	$-7,202 (vs do-nothing $-7,405)
$96	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.01	2/5	$4,020	$4,473	83%	89%	+$3,040	-$3,326	22.9%	$-3,107 (vs do-nothing $-3,310)
$99	8d	5 Aug 2026	$2.20	5/5	$4,125	$4,074	83%	87%	+$2,608	-$6,720	46.3%	$-6,477 (vs do-nothing $-6,680)
$97	6d	3 Aug 2026	$2.01	4/5	$4,020	$4,137	82%	87%	+$2,673	-$6,252	43.1%	$-6,017 (vs do-nothing $-6,220)
$100	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.55	5/5	$3,825	$3,774	82%	86%	+$2,294	-$6,045	41.7%	$-5,802 (vs do-nothing $-6,005)

Show 75 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 75.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$98	8d	5 Aug 2026	$2.46	4/5	$3,690	$3,807	81%	86%	+$2,254	-$5,672	39.1%	$-5,437 (vs do-nothing $-5,640)
$95	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.40	2/5	$4,800	$5,253	80%	87%	+$3,523	-$3,448	23.8%	$-3,229 (vs do-nothing $-3,432)
$99	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.90	5/5	$4,350	$4,299	80%	85%	+$2,585	-$6,370	43.9%	$-6,127 (vs do-nothing $-6,330)
$96	6d	3 Aug 2026	$2.30	4/5	$4,600	$4,717	80%	86%	+$2,943	-$6,536	45.1%	$-6,301 (vs do-nothing $-6,504)
$98	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.05	4/5	$3,660	$3,777	78%	84%	+$2,036	-$5,436	37.5%	$-5,201 (vs do-nothing $-5,404)
$94	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.75	2/5	$5,500	$5,953	77%	86%	+$3,855	-$3,578	24.7%	$-3,359 (vs do-nothing $-3,562)
$95	6d	3 Aug 2026	$2.70	3/5	$4,050	$4,335	77%	84%	+$2,530	-$5,082	35.0%	$-4,855 (vs do-nothing $-5,058)
$96	8d	5 Aug 2026	$3.10	4/5	$4,650	$4,767	76%	83%	+$2,660	-$6,216	42.9%	$-5,981 (vs do-nothing $-6,184)
$97	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	4/5	$4,080	$4,197	76%	83%	+$2,217	-$5,696	39.3%	$-5,461 (vs do-nothing $-5,664)
$98	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.30	5/5	$3,794	$3,743	75%	82%	+$1,884	-$6,170	42.5%	$-5,927 (vs do-nothing $-6,130)
$96	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.70	4/5	$4,440	$4,557	74%	82%	+$2,309	-$5,976	41.2%	$-5,741 (vs do-nothing $-5,944)
$94	6d	3 Aug 2026	$3.00	3/5	$4,500	$4,785	74%	83%	+$2,652	-$5,292	36.5%	$-5,065 (vs do-nothing $-5,268)
$95	8d	5 Aug 2026	$3.45	3/5	$3,881	$4,167	73%	82%	+$2,133	-$4,857	33.5%	$-4,630 (vs do-nothing $-4,833)
$93	3d	31 Jul 2026	$3.15	2/5	$6,300	$6,753	73%	84%	+$4,203	-$3,698	25.5%	$-3,479 (vs do-nothing $-3,682)
$97	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.65	5/5	$4,103	$4,052	73%	81%	+$1,985	-$6,495	44.8%	$-6,252 (vs do-nothing $-6,455)
$92	3d	31 Jul 2026	$3.55	2/5	$7,100	$7,553	71%	86%	+$5,164	-$3,818	26.3%	$-3,599 (vs do-nothing $-3,802)
$95	10d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	3/5	$3,690	$3,975	71%	80%	+$1,866	-$4,662	32.1%	$-4,435 (vs do-nothing $-4,638)
$96	17d	14 Aug 2026	$5.00	5/5	$4,412	$4,361	71%	80%	+$2,065	-$6,820	47.0%	$-6,577 (vs do-nothing $-6,780)
$95	13d	10 Aug 2026	$4.10	4/5	$3,785	$3,902	71%	80%	+$1,740	-$6,216	42.9%	$-5,981 (vs do-nothing $-6,184)
$94	8d	5 Aug 2026	$3.70	3/5	$4,162	$4,448	71%	81%	+$2,124	-$5,082	35.0%	$-4,855 (vs do-nothing $-5,058)
$97	24d	21 Aug 2026	$5.75	5/5	$3,594	$3,543	70%	79%	+$1,490	-$5,945	41.0%	$-5,702 (vs do-nothing $-5,905)
$93	6d	3 Aug 2026	$3.50	3/5	$5,250	$5,535	70%	81%	+$3,018	-$5,442	37.5%	$-5,215 (vs do-nothing $-5,418)
$94	10d	7 Aug 2026	$4.50	3/5	$4,050	$4,335	69%	79%	+$1,975	-$4,842	33.4%	$-4,615 (vs do-nothing $-4,818)
$96	24d	21 Aug 2026	$6.20	5/5	$3,875	$3,824	69%	78%	+$1,593	-$6,220	42.9%	$-5,977 (vs do-nothing $-6,180)
$95	17d	14 Aug 2026	$5.35	4/5	$3,776	$3,894	69%	79%	+$1,700	-$5,716	39.4%	$-5,481 (vs do-nothing $-5,684)
$93	8d	5 Aug 2026	$4.25	3/5	$4,781	$5,067	68%	80%	+$2,554	-$5,217	36.0%	$-4,990 (vs do-nothing $-5,193)
$95	24d	21 Aug 2026	$6.50	5/5	$4,062	$4,012	67%	77%	+$1,591	-$6,570	45.3%	$-6,327 (vs do-nothing $-6,530)
$94	17d	14 Aug 2026	$5.75	4/5	$4,059	$4,176	67%	78%	+$1,766	-$5,956	41.1%	$-5,721 (vs do-nothing $-5,924)
$92	6d	3 Aug 2026	$3.95	2/5	$3,950	$4,403	67%	80%	+$2,165	-$3,738	25.8%	$-3,519 (vs do-nothing $-3,722)
$91	3d	31 Jul 2026	$4.10	1/5	$4,100	$4,721	66%	84%	+$2,847	-$1,954	13.5%	$-1,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,946)
$93	10d	7 Aug 2026	$4.90	3/5	$4,410	$4,695	66%	78%	+$2,057	-$5,022	34.6%	$-4,795 (vs do-nothing $-4,998)
$94	24d	21 Aug 2026	$6.85	5/5	$4,281	$4,231	65%	77%	+$1,607	-$6,895	47.5%	$-6,652 (vs do-nothing $-6,855)
$92.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$5.10	3/5	$4,590	$4,875	65%	78%	+$2,087	-$5,112	35.3%	$-4,885 (vs do-nothing $-5,088)
$92	8d	5 Aug 2026	$4.65	3/5	$5,231	$5,517	65%	78%	+$2,493	-$5,397	37.2%	$-5,170 (vs do-nothing $-5,373)
$93	17d	14 Aug 2026	$6.25	4/5	$4,412	$4,529	65%	77%	+$1,883	-$6,156	42.5%	$-5,921 (vs do-nothing $-6,124)
$92	10d	7 Aug 2026	$5.35	3/5	$4,815	$5,100	64%	77%	+$2,155	-$5,187	35.8%	$-4,960 (vs do-nothing $-5,163)
$93	24d	21 Aug 2026	$7.30	4/5	$3,650	$3,767	63%	76%	+$1,338	-$5,736	39.6%	$-5,501 (vs do-nothing $-5,704)
$92.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$6.40	4/5	$4,518	$4,635	63%	76%	+$1,865	-$6,296	43.4%	$-6,061 (vs do-nothing $-6,264)
$91	6d	3 Aug 2026	$4.30	2/5	$4,300	$4,753	63%	78%	+$2,174	-$3,868	26.7%	$-3,649 (vs do-nothing $-3,852)
$92.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$7.45	4/5	$3,725	$3,842	63%	75%	+$1,322	-$5,876	40.5%	$-5,641 (vs do-nothing $-5,844)
$92	17d	14 Aug 2026	$6.60	4/5	$4,659	$4,776	62%	76%	+$1,876	-$6,416	44.2%	$-6,181 (vs do-nothing $-6,384)
$91.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$5.55	3/5	$4,995	$5,280	62%	76%	+$2,170	-$5,277	36.4%	$-5,050 (vs do-nothing $-5,253)
$92	24d	21 Aug 2026	$7.75	4/5	$3,875	$3,992	62%	75%	+$1,379	-$5,956	41.1%	$-5,721 (vs do-nothing $-5,924)
$91	8d	5 Aug 2026	$5.05	2/5	$3,788	$4,241	61%	77%	+$1,687	-$3,718	25.6%	$-3,499 (vs do-nothing $-3,702)
$91.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	3/5	$3,626	$3,912	61%	75%	+$1,439	-$4,887	33.7%	$-4,660 (vs do-nothing $-4,863)
$91	10d	7 Aug 2026	$5.85	3/5	$5,265	$5,550	61%	76%	+$2,267	-$5,337	36.8%	$-5,110 (vs do-nothing $-5,313)
$91.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$7.95	4/5	$3,975	$4,092	61%	75%	+$1,383	-$6,076	41.9%	$-5,841 (vs do-nothing $-6,044)
$91	17d	14 Aug 2026	$7.10	3/5	$3,759	$4,044	60%	75%	+$1,466	-$4,962	34.2%	$-4,735 (vs do-nothing $-4,938)
$90	3d	31 Jul 2026	$4.65	1/5	$4,650	$5,271	60%	79%	+$2,627	-$1,999	13.8%	$-1,788 (vs do-nothing $-1,991)
$91	24d	21 Aug 2026	$8.20	4/5	$4,100	$4,217	60%	74%	+$1,410	-$6,176	42.6%	$-5,941 (vs do-nothing $-6,144)
$90	6d	3 Aug 2026	$4.85	2/5	$4,850	$5,303	59%	77%	+$2,336	-$3,958	27.3%	$-3,739 (vs do-nothing $-3,942)
$90	8d	5 Aug 2026	$5.65	2/5	$4,238	$4,691	58%	76%	+$1,832	-$3,798	26.2%	$-3,579 (vs do-nothing $-3,782)
$90	10d	7 Aug 2026	$6.40	2/5	$3,840	$4,293	58%	76%	+$1,752	-$3,648	25.2%	$-3,429 (vs do-nothing $-3,632)
$90	13d	10 Aug 2026	$6.20	3/5	$4,292	$4,578	58%	74%	+$1,523	-$5,532	38.1%	$-5,305 (vs do-nothing $-5,508)
$90	24d	21 Aug 2026	$8.75	4/5	$4,375	$4,492	58%	73%	+$1,479	-$6,356	43.8%	$-6,121 (vs do-nothing $-6,324)
$90	17d	14 Aug 2026	$7.65	3/5	$4,050	$4,335	58%	74%	+$1,537	-$5,097	35.1%	$-4,870 (vs do-nothing $-5,073)
$89	24d	21 Aug 2026	$9.25	4/5	$4,625	$4,742	56%	73%	+$1,511	-$6,556	45.2%	$-6,321 (vs do-nothing $-6,524)
$89	3d	31 Jul 2026	$5.15	1/5	$5,150	$5,771	55%	81%	+$3,143	-$2,049	14.1%	$-1,838 (vs do-nothing $-2,041)
$89	17d	14 Aug 2026	$8.15	3/5	$4,315	$4,600	55%	73%	+$1,565	-$5,247	36.2%	$-5,020 (vs do-nothing $-5,223)
$89	10d	7 Aug 2026	$6.85	2/5	$4,110	$4,563	55%	75%	+$1,762	-$3,758	25.9%	$-3,539 (vs do-nothing $-3,742)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 12:24