FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $86.95

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.58 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $86.95 UNDERWATER $27.05 (23.7% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.58 (banked floor $113.62) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$3,635/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$58/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-15,998	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$1,817/mo

HEDGE COVER
$58/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$3,635/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.0 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
12.9 mo to earn back $47,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $117.58 (probe: $110C 13d) brings only $104/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,071

Hole (after banked)

$13,926

was $15,998 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$648

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$117.58 → $113.62

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $110C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.30	$648	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 42 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 35 · %B 11 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $151.64 (+74%) · daily UBB $125.97 · 1-wk expected move ±$11 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $100 / 3d. This is the safest strike (survival 92%, breach 8%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($1,817/mo); it brings $2,050/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $96/3d for $4,200/mo, but breach risk rises to 15% (+7pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 3 × $120/3d (99+% survival, $60/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $8,584 (59% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 2.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-16,005 and cuts bleed by $58/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · sell 5 × $100, 92% survival, $2,050/mo (E[net] $900/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 3d	5 × $100	92%	$2,050	$900
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 10d	5 × $102	86%	$1,860	$183

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $205 with probability 91%; on the 9% touch you roll, paying $1,577 to close and taking $513 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,064) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 3d · E[net] $900/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $100 (50% normal), 92% survival, breach 8%, $2,050/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $102 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 95% (breach 8% → 5%) for $650/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $86.95 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

3 × $120

31 Jul

38.0%

99+%hist 100%

0%hist 1%

-3pp

$60

-$1,990

Sell 3 × $120 38.0% OTM over spot $86.95 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.03 mid)

= $6 credit for the 3d cycle → $60/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $120.03)

99+%

EV / mo

+$60

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-3pp

62% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung

FIRE DRILLS

~0.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$148/mo

median; plan ~$100/mo after 68% keep · $576 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,129

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$133 @ 79% POP

74% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.35/sh now → $3.78 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.08/sh	+$23 cycle +$29	67% surv 52%	+$433 SAFE cap gain +$16,430
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$120	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.05/sh	+$16 cycle +$22	67% surv 52%	+$442 SAFE cap gain +$16,439
Max even-money escape in the band	~$133	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$41 cycle +$47	79% surv 74%	+$4,764 SAFE cap gain +$20,762

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$60/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$206/mo

Downside budget

✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $117.58: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-9,600

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.02 collected) or spot ≥ $120.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $119-120.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $120.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$120.00 (4.6σ)	$6	$410	+$16,407	+$1,704
+2.5%	$123.00 (5.0σ)	$-894	$501	+$16,499	+$1,704
+5%	$126.00 (5.4σ)	$-1,794	$593	+$16,590	+$1,704

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $120): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $114): -$648

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-397 (+$15,601 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$971, the opportunity cost of earning $60/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $102

31 Jul

17.3%

95%hist 100%

11%hist 5%

+2pp

$140

$1,400

-$650

$7,649

Sell 5 × $102 17.3% OTM over spot $86.95 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.31 mid)

= $140 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,400/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $102)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $102.31)

95%

EV / mo

+$854

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$927/mo

median; plan ~$631/mo after 68% keep · $2,804 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,468

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$116 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.55/sh now → $3.22 mid-life (likely $3.09–$6.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 171 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $106 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$102	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.42/sh	+$211 cycle +$351 [-$48…+$389] · 73% credit	67% surv 52%	-$7,662 NOT cap gain +$8,335
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$102	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.40/sh	+$199 cycle +$339 [-$67…+$374] · 72% credit	67% surv 52%	-$7,648 NOT cap gain +$8,349
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$112	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.02/sh	+$510 cycle +$650 [-$243…+$693] · 68% credit	77% surv 71%	-$2,032 NOT cap gain +$13,966
Max even-money escape in the band	~$116	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.05/sh	+$26 cycle +$166 [-$810…+$188] · 36% credit	82% surv 78%	-$394 NOT cap gain +$15,604
reaches SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,400/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	-23%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	39% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,342/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $102 is $16 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,649
… as % of IC ($14,500)	52.8%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	16.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,012

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $102.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $100.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $101-102.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $102.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$102.00 (2.1σ)	$140	$-7,873	+$8,124	-$30
+2.5%	$104.55 (2.4σ)	$-1,135	$-7,796	+$8,202	-$1,305
+5%	$107.10 (2.8σ)	$-2,410	$-7,718	+$8,280	-$2,580
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-5,860	$-7,507	+$8,490	-$6,030

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$7,649

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,398 (+$8,599 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,030, the opportunity cost of earning $1,400/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $100

31 Jul

15.0%

92%hist 100%

16%hist 5%

+5pp

$205

$2,050

—

$8,584

Sell 5 × $100 15.0% OTM over spot $86.95 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid)

= $205 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,050/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $100.42)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,160

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

72% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,330/mo

median; plan ~$905/mo after 68% keep · $3,340 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.5], measured ONLY among the 72% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,372

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$116 @ 84% POP

81% survival

Buyback gross: $4.46/sh now → $3.15 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 272 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $103 (overshoots $3.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.45/sh	+$227 cycle +$432 [-$29…+$400] · 72% credit	67% surv 52%	-$8,643 NOT cap gain +$7,355
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$100	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.43/sh	+$214 cycle +$419 [-$44…+$386] · 72% credit	67% surv 52%	-$8,629 NOT cap gain +$7,369
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$110	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.03/sh	+$513 cycle +$718 [-$179…+$705] · 68% credit	77% surv 71%	-$3,025 NOT cap gain +$12,973
Max even-money escape in the band	~$114	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$34 cycle +$239 [-$739…+$207] · 42% credit	82% surv 78%	-$1,382 NOT cap gain +$14,615
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$116	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.29/sh	-$147 cycle +$58 [-$981…+$22] · 28% credit	84% surv 81%	-$502 NOT cap gain +$15,495
budget: banked $205 debit $147 (72% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,949/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,050/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	+13%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	56% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,992/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,584
… as % of IC ($14,500)	59.2%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	18.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,005

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $100.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-100.42	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.42	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (1.8σ)	$205	$-8,869	+$7,128	+$35
+2.5%	$102.50 (2.2σ)	$-1,045	$-8,793	+$7,204	-$1,215
+5%	$105.00 (2.5σ)	$-2,295	$-8,717	+$7,281	-$2,465
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-6,795	$-8,442	+$7,555	-$6,965

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,584

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,333 (+$7,664 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,965, the opportunity cost of earning $2,050/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $99

31 Jul

13.9%

91%hist 100%

19%hist 5%

+6pp

$245

$2,450

+$400

$9,044

Sell 5 × $99 13.9% OTM over spot $86.95 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.53 mid)

= $245 credit for the 3d cycle → $2,450/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $99.53)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,316

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

70% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.5/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,566/mo

median; plan ~$1,065/mo after 68% keep · $4,006 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.7], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

11%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,316

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$116 @ 85% POP

82% survival

Buyback gross: $4.41/sh now → $3.12 mid-life (likely $2.96–$5.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 328 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $102 (overshoots $3.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.47/sh	+$234 cycle +$479 [-$14…+$398] · 74% credit	67% surv 52%	-$9,126 NOT cap gain +$6,871
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$99	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.44/sh	+$221 cycle +$466 [-$34…+$383] · 74% credit	67% surv 52%	-$9,112 NOT cap gain +$6,885
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$109	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.03/sh	+$514 cycle +$759 [-$175…+$684] · 70% credit	77% surv 71%	-$3,515 NOT cap gain +$12,483
Max even-money escape in the band	~$113	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.07/sh	+$37 cycle +$282 [-$729…+$187] · 38% credit	82% surv 78%	-$1,869 NOT cap gain +$14,128
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$116	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.48/sh	-$242 cycle +$3 [-$1,088…-$112] · 16% credit	85% surv 82%	-$557 NOT cap gain +$15,441
budget: banked $245 debit $242 (99% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,799/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,450/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	+35%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	67% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,392/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $99 is $19 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,044
… as % of IC ($14,500)	62.4%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	19.2%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,020

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $99.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-99.53	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $99.53	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.7σ)	$245	$-9,360	+$6,638	+$75
+2.5%	$101.47 (2.0σ)	$-992	$-9,284	+$6,713	-$1,162
+5%	$103.95 (2.4σ)	$-2,230	$-9,209	+$6,788	-$2,400
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-7,255	$-8,902	+$7,095	-$7,425

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$9,044

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,793 (+$7,204 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,425, the opportunity cost of earning $2,450/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $96

31 Jul

10.4%

85%hist 99%

30%hist 18%

+7pp

$420

$4,200

+$2,150

$10,369

Sell 5 × $96 10.4% OTM over spot $86.95 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.89 mid)

= $420 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,200/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $96.89)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,886

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

76% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,265/mo

median; plan ~$1,540/mo after 68% keep · $4,639 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.6], measured ONLY among the 76% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

19%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,094

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$115 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $4.28/sh now → $3.03 mid-life (likely $3.10–$5.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.84/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 565 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $99 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.51/sh	+$255 cycle +$675 [-$16…+$382] · 73% credit	67% surv 52%	-$10,522 NOT cap gain +$5,476
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$106	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.03/sh	+$514 cycle +$934 [-$189…+$609] · 66% credit	77% surv 72%	-$4,931 NOT cap gain +$11,067
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.03/sh	+$17 cycle +$437 [-$331…+$118] · 37% credit	69% surv 57%	-$10,202 NOT cap gain +$5,795
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$45 cycle +$465 [-$730…+$124] · 32% credit	82% surv 78%	-$3,278 NOT cap gain +$12,720
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$115	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.80/sh	-$399 cycle +$21 [-$1,319…-$356] · 6% credit	86% surv 84%	-$1,069 NOT cap gain +$14,928
budget: banked $420 debit $399 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$21 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,520/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,200/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	+131%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	116% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,142/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $96 is $22 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,369
… as % of IC ($14,500)	71.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	22.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.9 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,020

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.84 collected) or spot ≥ $96.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.89	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.89	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.3σ)	$420	$-10,776	+$5,221	+$250
+2.5%	$98.40 (1.6σ)	$-780	$-10,703	+$5,294	-$950
+5%	$100.80 (1.9σ)	$-1,980	$-10,630	+$5,367	-$2,150
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (3.8σ)	$-8,580	$-10,227	+$5,770	-$8,750

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$10,369

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,118 (+$5,879 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,750, the opportunity cost of earning $4,200/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 10d · E[net] $183/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $102 (50% normal), 86% survival, breach 14%, $1,860/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $104 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 90% (breach 14% → 10%) for $390/mo less (21% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $86.95 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $120

7 Aug

10d

38.0%

99%hist 100%

3%hist 1%

-1pp

$34

$102

-$1,758

Sell 2 × $120 38.0% OTM over spot $86.95 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.21 mid)

= $34 credit for the 10d cycle → $102/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $120.21)

99%

EV / mo

+$87

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-1pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$327/mo

median; plan ~$222/mo after 68% keep · $1,128 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,094

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$125 @ 71% POP

62% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.97/sh now → $5.64 mid-life (likely $3.92–$8.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 68 simulated challenges: the $120 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 10, at $124 (overshoots $3.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Max even-money escape in the band	~$125	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.19/sh	+$38 cycle +$72 [-$135…+$357] · 69% credit	71% surv 62%	+$959 SAFE cap gain +$16,956
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.79/sh	-$559 cycle -$525 [-$848…-$301]	60% surv 52%	-$687 NOT cap gain +$15,310

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$102/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	-94%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	3% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$350/mo

Downside budget

✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $117.58: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-6,407

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $120.21 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $119-120.21	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $120.21	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$120.00 (2.5σ)	$34	$-128	+$15,869	+$1,166
+2.5%	$123.00 (2.7σ)	$-566	$-37	+$15,961	+$1,166
+5%	$126.00 (3.0σ)	$-1,166	$55	+$16,052	+$1,166

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $120): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $114): -$971

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-721 (+$15,277 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$648, the opportunity cost of earning $102/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $106

7 Aug

10d

21.9%

92%hist 100%

17%hist 5%

+3pp

$395

$1,185

-$675

$5,394

Sell 5 × $106 21.9% OTM over spot $86.95 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.87 mid)

= $395 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,185/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $106)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $106.87)

93%

EV / mo

+$692

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$754/mo

median; plan ~$512/mo after 68% keep · $2,742 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.5], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,096

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 75% POP

69% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.04/sh now → $4.98 mid-life (likely $3.98–$6.83) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 356 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $109 (overshoots $2.69). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$111	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.55/sh	+$274 cycle +$669 [-$46…+$771] · 71% credit	72% surv 62%	-$2,809 NOT cap gain +$13,189
Max even-money escape in the band	~$112	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.14/sh	+$72 cycle +$467 [-$287…+$564] · 57% credit	73% surv 64%	-$2,480 NOT cap gain +$13,518
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.66/sh	-$332 cycle +$63 [-$755…+$135] · 29% credit	75% surv 69%	-$1,558 NOT cap gain +$14,439
budget: banked $395 debit $332 (84% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$63 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,408/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$106	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.26/sh	-$1,128 cycle -$733 [-$1,610…-$696] · 2% credit	61% surv 52%	-$6,625 NOT cap gain +$9,373

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,185/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	-35%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,127/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $106 is $12 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$5,394
… as % of IC ($14,500)	37.2%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	11.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,038

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $106.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $104.94	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $105-106.87	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $106.87	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$106.00 (1.4σ)	$395	$-5,496	+$10,501	+$225
+2.5%	$108.65 (1.7σ)	$-930	$-5,416	+$10,582	-$1,100
+5%	$111.30 (1.9σ)	$-2,255	$-5,335	+$10,663	-$2,425
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-3,605	$-5,252	+$10,745	-$3,775

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $106): -$5,394

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,143 (+$10,854 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,775, the opportunity cost of earning $1,185/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $104

7 Aug

10d

19.6%

90%hist 99%

22%hist 13%

+3pp

$490

$1,470

-$390

$6,299

Sell 5 × $104 19.6% OTM over spot $86.95 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.06 mid)

= $490 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,470/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $104)

90%

Breach risk

10%

POP (stays ≤ $105.06)

91%

EV / mo

+$788

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

62% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$901/mo

median; plan ~$613/mo after 68% keep · $3,450 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,954

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$113 @ 76% POP

70% survival

Buyback gross: $6.91/sh now → $4.89 mid-life (likely $4.29–$7.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 462 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $107 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$109	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.59/sh	+$294 cycle +$784 [-$193…+$685] · 64% credit	72% surv 63%	-$3,755 NOT cap gain +$12,242
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.03/sh	+$17 cycle +$507 [-$527…+$366] · 44% credit	73% surv 65%	-$3,236 NOT cap gain +$12,761
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$113	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.87/sh	-$437 cycle +$53 [-$1,051…-$137] · 20% credit	76% surv 70%	-$2,098 NOT cap gain +$13,899
budget: banked $490 debit $437 (89% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$53 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,168/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$104	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.18/sh	-$1,092 cycle -$602 [-$1,759…-$804] · 1% credit	61% surv 52%	-$7,554 NOT cap gain +$8,443

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,470/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	-19%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	40% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,412/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $104 is $14 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,299
… as % of IC ($14,500)	43.4%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	13.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,040

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $105.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $103-105.06	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $105.06	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$104.00 (1.3σ)	$490	$-6,462	+$9,535	+$320
+2.5%	$106.60 (1.5σ)	$-810	$-6,383	+$9,614	-$980
+5%	$109.20 (1.7σ)	$-2,110	$-6,304	+$9,694	-$2,280
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-4,510	$-6,157	+$9,840	-$4,680

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$6,299

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,048 (+$9,949 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,680, the opportunity cost of earning $1,470/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $102

7 Aug

10d

17.3%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+2pp

$620

$1,860

—

$7,169

Sell 5 × $102 17.3% OTM over spot $86.95 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.31 mid)

= $620 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,860/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $102)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $103.31)

88%

EV / mo

+$740

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

71% whole by 9mo vs 68% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,126/mo

median; plan ~$765/mo after 68% keep · $2,789 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

21%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,777

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$112 @ 77% POP

72% survival

Buyback gross: $6.78/sh now → $4.79 mid-life (likely $4.49–$7.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 620 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $105 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$107	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.62/sh	+$312 cycle +$932 [-$165…+$557] · 60% credit	72% surv 63%	-$4,668 NOT cap gain +$11,330
Max even-money escape in the band	~$108	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.07/sh	+$36 cycle +$656 [-$498…+$247] · 38% credit	73% surv 65%	-$4,148 NOT cap gain +$11,849
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$112	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$1.13/sh	-$564 cycle +$56 [-$1,243…-$407] · 12% credit	77% surv 72%	-$2,626 NOT cap gain +$13,371
budget: banked $620 debit $564 (91% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$56 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,893/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$102	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.11/sh	-$1,056 cycle -$436 [-$1,741…-$901] · 1% credit	61% surv 52%	-$8,450 NOT cap gain +$7,548

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,860/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	+2%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,802/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $102 is $16 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$7,169
… as % of IC ($14,500)	49.4%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	15.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.0 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,035

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.24 collected) or spot ≥ $103.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $100.98	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $101-103.31	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $103.31	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$102.00 (1.1σ)	$620	$-7,393	+$8,604	+$450
+2.5%	$104.55 (1.3σ)	$-655	$-7,316	+$8,682	-$825
+5%	$107.10 (1.5σ)	$-1,930	$-7,238	+$8,760	-$2,100
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-5,380	$-7,027	+$8,970	-$5,550

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$7,169

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,918 (+$9,079 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,550, the opportunity cost of earning $1,860/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $95

7 Aug

10d

9.3%

74%hist 96%

55%hist 43%

+7pp

$1,265

$3,795

+$1,935

$10,024

Sell 5 × $95 9.3% OTM over spot $86.95 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.62 mid)

= $1,265 credit for the 10d cycle → $3,795/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

74%

Breach risk

26%

POP (stays ≤ $97.62)

79%

EV / mo

+$1,012

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

69% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,668/mo

median; plan ~$1,134/mo after 68% keep · $5,204 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 69% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

42%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$967

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$112 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $5.13–$7.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,268 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $98 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$98	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$1.41/sh	+$707 cycle +$1,972 [+$185…+$669] · 87% credit	71% surv 60%	-$8,137 NOT cap gain +$7,861
Max even-money escape in the band	~$101	21 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.18/sh	+$92 cycle +$1,357 [-$539…-$15] · 24% credit	74% surv 66%	-$7,160 NOT cap gain +$8,837
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.87/sh	-$936 cycle +$329 [-$1,722…-$1,093] · 0% credit	61% surv 53%	-$11,398 NOT cap gain +$4,599
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$112	21 Aug 2026	19d left	-$2.41/sh	-$1,205 cycle +$60 [-$2,119…-$1,426]	86% surv 84%	-$2,622 NOT cap gain +$13,376
budget: banked $1,265 debit $1,205 (95% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$60 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,622/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,795/mo
vs 50% target ($1,817/mo)	+109%
vs normal income ($3,635/mo)	104% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,737/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $95 is $23 below CC-SS $117.58: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,024
… as % of IC ($14,500)	69.1%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	21.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-16,045

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.53 collected) or spot ≥ $97.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $125.97 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-97.62	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $97.62	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,265	$-10,462	+$5,536	+$1,095
+2.5%	$97.37 (≤1σ, normal week)	$78	$-10,390	+$5,608	-$92
+5%	$99.75 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,110	$-10,317	+$5,680	-$1,280
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.1σ)	$-8,235	$-9,882	+$6,115	-$8,405

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.58, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,998

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,248

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$10,024

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,773 (+$6,224 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,368 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,405, the opportunity cost of earning $3,795/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (104 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 104 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.061 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,248 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,368

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$100	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.41	5/5	$2,050	$1,992	92%	93%	+$1,160	-$8,584	59.2%	$-8,333 (vs do-nothing $-6,965)
$99	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.49	4/5	$1,960	$2,004	91%	92%	+$1,053	-$7,235	49.9%	$-7,308 (vs do-nothing $-5,940)
$98	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.58	4/5	$2,320	$2,364	89%	90%	+$1,166	-$7,599	52.4%	$-7,672 (vs do-nothing $-6,304)
$97	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.70	3/5	$2,100	$2,246	87%	89%	+$1,002	-$5,963	41.1%	$-6,360 (vs do-nothing $-4,992)
$102	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.24	5/5	$1,860	$1,802	86%	88%	+$740	-$7,169	49.4%	$-6,918 (vs do-nothing $-5,550)
$98	6d	3 Aug 2026	$0.83	5/5	$2,075	$2,017	86%	88%	+$791	-$9,374	64.6%	$-9,123 (vs do-nothing $-7,755)
$96	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.84	3/5	$2,520	$2,666	85%	87%	+$1,132	-$6,221	42.9%	$-6,618 (vs do-nothing $-5,250)
$99	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.10	5/5	$2,062	$2,004	85%	87%	+$768	-$8,739	60.3%	$-8,488 (vs do-nothing $-7,120)
$101	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.38	5/5	$2,070	$2,012	85%	87%	+$789	-$7,599	52.4%	$-7,348 (vs do-nothing $-5,980)
$97	6d	3 Aug 2026	$0.96	4/5	$1,920	$1,964	84%	86%	+$663	-$7,847	54.1%	$-7,920 (vs do-nothing $-6,552)
$100	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.51	5/5	$2,265	$2,207	83%	86%	+$801	-$8,034	55.4%	$-7,783 (vs do-nothing $-6,415)
$98	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.25	4/5	$1,875	$1,919	83%	85%	+$649	-$7,331	50.6%	$-7,404 (vs do-nothing $-6,036)
$95	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.02	2/5	$2,040	$2,288	83%	85%	+$874	-$4,312	29.7%	$-5,032 (vs do-nothing $-3,664)

Show 91 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 91.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$102	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.07	5/5	$1,826	$1,768	82%	85%	+$651	-$6,754	46.6%	$-6,503 (vs do-nothing $-5,135)
$96	6d	3 Aug 2026	$1.11	4/5	$2,220	$2,264	82%	84%	+$689	-$8,187	56.5%	$-8,260 (vs do-nothing $-6,892)
$99	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.67	4/5	$2,004	$2,048	82%	84%	+$668	-$6,763	46.6%	$-6,836 (vs do-nothing $-5,468)
$101	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.24	5/5	$1,976	$1,918	81%	84%	+$673	-$7,169	49.4%	$-6,918 (vs do-nothing $-5,550)
$97	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.42	4/5	$2,130	$2,174	81%	84%	+$685	-$7,663	52.8%	$-7,736 (vs do-nothing $-6,368)
$100	15d	12 Aug 2026	$1.97	5/5	$1,970	$1,912	80%	84%	+$467	-$7,804	53.8%	$-7,553 (vs do-nothing $-6,185)
$94	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.22	2/5	$2,440	$2,688	80%	83%	+$979	-$4,472	30.8%	$-5,192 (vs do-nothing $-3,824)
$98	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.84	4/5	$2,208	$2,252	80%	83%	+$686	-$7,095	48.9%	$-7,168 (vs do-nothing $-5,800)
$100	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.42	5/5	$2,135	$2,077	80%	83%	+$692	-$7,579	52.3%	$-7,328 (vs do-nothing $-5,960)
$95	6d	3 Aug 2026	$1.30	3/5	$1,950	$2,096	79%	83%	+$561	-$6,383	44.0%	$-6,780 (vs do-nothing $-5,412)
$96	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.63	3/5	$1,834	$1,980	79%	83%	+$562	-$5,984	41.3%	$-6,381 (vs do-nothing $-5,013)
$101	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.05	5/5	$1,906	$1,848	79%	83%	+$614	-$6,764	46.6%	$-6,513 (vs do-nothing $-5,145)
$99	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.62	4/5	$1,849	$1,893	78%	82%	+$571	-$6,383	44.0%	$-6,456 (vs do-nothing $-5,088)
$97	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.05	3/5	$1,845	$1,991	78%	82%	+$547	-$5,558	38.3%	$-5,955 (vs do-nothing $-4,587)
$96	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.27	3/5	$2,043	$2,189	77%	81%	+$706	-$5,792	39.9%	$-6,189 (vs do-nothing $-4,821)
$93	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.44	2/5	$2,880	$3,128	77%	81%	+$1,060	-$4,628	31.9%	$-5,348 (vs do-nothing $-3,980)
$94	6d	3 Aug 2026	$1.49	3/5	$2,235	$2,381	77%	81%	+$564	-$6,626	45.7%	$-7,023 (vs do-nothing $-5,655)
$98	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.84	4/5	$2,005	$2,049	76%	81%	+$592	-$6,695	46.2%	$-6,768 (vs do-nothing $-5,400)
$95	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.85	3/5	$2,081	$2,227	76%	81%	+$594	-$6,218	42.9%	$-6,615 (vs do-nothing $-5,247)
$100	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	5/5	$2,062	$2,004	76%	80%	+$415	-$7,139	49.2%	$-6,888 (vs do-nothing $-5,520)
$99	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.45	5/5	$2,156	$2,098	75%	79%	+$372	-$7,564	52.2%	$-7,313 (vs do-nothing $-5,945)
$97	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.05	4/5	$2,153	$2,197	75%	80%	+$592	-$7,011	48.4%	$-7,084 (vs do-nothing $-5,716)
$94	8d	5 Aug 2026	$1.95	3/5	$2,194	$2,340	74%	80%	+$511	-$6,488	44.7%	$-6,885 (vs do-nothing $-5,517)
$95	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.53	3/5	$2,277	$2,423	74%	79%	+$607	-$6,014	41.5%	$-6,411 (vs do-nothing $-5,043)
$93	6d	3 Aug 2026	$1.71	3/5	$2,565	$2,711	74%	79%	+$567	-$6,860	47.3%	$-7,257 (vs do-nothing $-5,889)
$98	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.70	4/5	$1,850	$1,894	73%	79%	+$306	-$6,351	43.8%	$-6,424 (vs do-nothing $-5,056)
$92	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.69	2/5	$3,380	$3,628	73%	79%	+$1,127	-$4,778	32.9%	$-5,498 (vs do-nothing $-4,130)
$96	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	4/5	$2,329	$2,373	73%	79%	+$607	-$7,311	50.4%	$-7,384 (vs do-nothing $-6,016)
$97.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.80	4/5	$1,900	$1,944	73%	78%	+$294	-$6,511	44.9%	$-6,584 (vs do-nothing $-5,216)
$95	13d	10 Aug 2026	$2.00	4/5	$1,846	$1,890	73%	78%	$-211	-$8,231	56.8%	$-8,304 (vs do-nothing $-6,936)
$97	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.95	4/5	$1,975	$2,019	72%	78%	+$306	-$6,651	45.9%	$-6,724 (vs do-nothing $-5,356)
$94	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.78	3/5	$2,502	$2,648	72%	78%	+$614	-$6,239	43.0%	$-6,636 (vs do-nothing $-5,268)
$93	8d	5 Aug 2026	$2.20	3/5	$2,475	$2,621	72%	78%	+$510	-$6,713	46.3%	$-7,110 (vs do-nothing $-5,742)
$95	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.55	3/5	$1,879	$2,025	71%	78%	+$455	-$5,708	39.4%	$-6,105 (vs do-nothing $-4,737)
$92	6d	3 Aug 2026	$2.00	2/5	$2,000	$2,248	71%	77%	+$417	-$4,716	32.5%	$-5,436 (vs do-nothing $-4,068)
$96	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.25	4/5	$2,125	$2,169	71%	77%	+$322	-$6,931	47.8%	$-7,004 (vs do-nothing $-5,636)
$91	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.97	1/5	$1,970	$2,320	69%	77%	+$585	-$2,461	17.0%	$-3,505 (vs do-nothing $-2,137)
$93	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.05	2/5	$1,830	$2,078	69%	76%	+$410	-$4,306	29.7%	$-5,026 (vs do-nothing $-3,658)
$95	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.50	4/5	$2,250	$2,294	69%	76%	+$305	-$7,231	49.9%	$-7,304 (vs do-nothing $-5,936)
$94	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.75	3/5	$1,985	$2,131	69%	76%	+$314	-$5,948	41.0%	$-6,345 (vs do-nothing $-4,977)
$92	8d	5 Aug 2026	$2.50	2/5	$1,875	$2,123	69%	76%	+$353	-$4,616	31.8%	$-5,336 (vs do-nothing $-3,968)
$92.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.20	2/5	$1,920	$2,168	68%	76%	+$414	-$4,376	30.2%	$-5,096 (vs do-nothing $-3,728)
$94	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.80	4/5	$2,400	$2,444	67%	75%	+$304	-$7,511	51.8%	$-7,584 (vs do-nothing $-6,216)
$91	6d	3 Aug 2026	$2.31	2/5	$2,310	$2,558	67%	75%	+$440	-$4,854	33.5%	$-5,574 (vs do-nothing $-4,206)
$93	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.15	3/5	$2,197	$2,343	67%	75%	+$365	-$6,128	42.3%	$-6,525 (vs do-nothing $-5,157)
$92	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.35	2/5	$2,010	$2,258	67%	75%	+$412	-$4,446	30.7%	$-5,166 (vs do-nothing $-3,798)
$91.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.60	2/5	$2,160	$2,408	66%	75%	+$569	-$4,496	31.0%	$-5,216 (vs do-nothing $-3,848)
$92.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.25	3/5	$2,250	$2,396	66%	74%	+$334	-$6,248	43.1%	$-6,645 (vs do-nothing $-5,277)
$91	8d	5 Aug 2026	$2.79	2/5	$2,092	$2,340	66%	75%	+$331	-$4,758	32.8%	$-5,478 (vs do-nothing $-4,110)
$93	24d	21 Aug 2026	$5.15	3/5	$1,931	$2,077	66%	74%	+$239	-$5,828	40.2%	$-6,225 (vs do-nothing $-4,857)
$90	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.31	1/5	$2,310	$2,660	65%	75%	+$621	-$2,527	17.4%	$-3,571 (vs do-nothing $-2,203)
$92	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.45	3/5	$2,356	$2,502	65%	74%	+$352	-$6,338	43.7%	$-6,735 (vs do-nothing $-5,367)
$92.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$5.30	3/5	$1,988	$2,133	65%	73%	+$232	-$5,933	40.9%	$-6,330 (vs do-nothing $-4,962)
$91	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.70	2/5	$2,220	$2,468	65%	74%	+$530	-$4,576	31.6%	$-5,296 (vs do-nothing $-3,928)
$92	24d	21 Aug 2026	$5.50	3/5	$2,062	$2,208	64%	73%	+$242	-$6,023	41.5%	$-6,420 (vs do-nothing $-5,052)
$91.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.60	3/5	$2,435	$2,581	64%	73%	+$341	-$6,443	44.4%	$-6,840 (vs do-nothing $-5,472)
$90	6d	3 Aug 2026	$2.66	2/5	$2,660	$2,908	64%	73%	+$464	-$4,984	34.4%	$-5,704 (vs do-nothing $-4,336)
$91.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$5.70	3/5	$2,138	$2,283	63%	73%	+$251	-$6,113	42.2%	$-6,510 (vs do-nothing $-5,142)
$91	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.75	3/5	$2,515	$2,661	63%	73%	+$326	-$6,548	45.2%	$-6,945 (vs do-nothing $-5,577)
$90	8d	5 Aug 2026	$3.20	2/5	$2,400	$2,648	63%	73%	+$372	-$4,876	33.6%	$-5,596 (vs do-nothing $-4,228)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 21:35