FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $86.89

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.00 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $86.89 UNDERWATER $27.11 (23.8% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.00 (banked floor $113.04) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$4,554/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$53/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-15,750	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,277/mo

HEDGE COVER
$53/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$4,554/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
10.3 mo to earn back $47,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $117.00 (probe: $115C 14d) brings only $429/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,071

Hole (after banked)

$13,679

was $15,750 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$648

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$117.00 → $113.04

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $110C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.30	$648	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 42 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 13 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $151.64 (+75%) · daily UBB $122.58 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 3 contracts at $96 / 2d. This is the safest strike (survival 94%, breach 6%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,277/mo); it brings $2,430/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $95/2d for $5,100/mo, but breach risk rises to 14% (+8pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 4 × $115/2d (99+% survival, $60/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $6,137 (42% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 1.3 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 3 contracts realizes $-9,460 and cuts bleed by $32/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 (2d) · sell 3 × $96, 94% survival, $2,430/mo (E[net] $1,052/mo).
The two weekly tracks below are ranked by E[net]/mo = income kept when unchallenged − the net cash cost and forgone cycle when it is. Each has its own full ladder.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
THIS FRIDAY 🏆	31 Jul 2026 · 2d	3 × $96	94%	$2,430	$1,052
NEXT FRIDAY	7 Aug 2026 · 9d	5 × $99	85%	$2,500	$411

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $162 with probability 87%; on the 13% touch you roll, paying $847 to close and taking $325 back from the best priced door (net cash $522) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 THIS FRIDAY · 31 Jul 2026 · 2d · E[net] $1,052/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 3 × $96 (50% normal), 94% survival, breach 6%, $2,430/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 95% (breach 6% → 5%) for $780/mo less (32% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $86.89 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

4 × $115

31 Jul

32.4%

99+%hist 100%

1%hist 1%

-2pp

$60

-$2,370

$794

Sell 4 × $115 32.4% OTM over spot $86.89 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.03 mid)

= $4 credit for the 2d cycle → $60/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $115)

99+%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $115.03)

99+%

EV / mo

+$49

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-2pp

64% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$132/mo

median; plan ~$90/mo after 68% keep · $281 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-1.7], measured ONLY among the 64% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,349

Free roll-up

+$0/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$129 @ 81% POP

77% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.78/sh now → $3.38 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (4 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$115	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.25/sh	+$100 cycle +$104	67% surv 52%	-$719 NOT cap gain +$15,031
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$115	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.20/sh	+$78 cycle +$82	67% surv 52%	-$694 NOT cap gain +$15,056
Max even-money escape in the band	~$129	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.21/sh	+$85 cycle +$89	81% surv 77%	+$5,361 SAFE cap gain +$21,111

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$60/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	-97%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$142/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $115 is $2 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$794
… as % of IC ($14,500)	5.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	1.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.2 mo
Surgical close (4 ct)	$-12,606

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.00/sh (~25% of the $0.01 collected) or spot ≥ $115.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $113.85	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $114-115.03	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $115.03	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$115.00 (5.0σ)	$4	$-819	+$14,931	+$116
+2.5%	$117.87 (5.5σ)	$-1,146	$-727	+$15,023	+$116
+5%	$120.75 (6.0σ)	$-2,296	$-635	+$15,115	+$116

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (4 × $115): -$794

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $114): -$228

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-756 (+$14,994 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$116, the opportunity cost of earning $60/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $100

31 Jul

15.1%

95%hist 100%

9%hist 1%

+2pp

$110

$1,650

-$780

$8,388

Sell 5 × $100 15.1% OTM over spot $86.89 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.24 mid)

= $110 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,650/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

95%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $100.24)

96%

EV / mo

+$1,132

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

66% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,148/mo

median; plan ~$781/mo after 68% keep · $2,946 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,361

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$115 @ 83% POP

79% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.16/sh now → $2.94 mid-life (likely $2.92–$6.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 145 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $103 (overshoots $2.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.51/sh	+$256 cycle +$366 [-$64…+$365] · 71% credit	67% surv 52%	-$8,409 NOT cap gain +$7,341
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$111	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.08/sh	+$542 cycle +$652 [-$301…+$657] · 64% credit	79% surv 74%	-$2,213 NOT cap gain +$13,537
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$101	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.05/sh	+$25 cycle +$135 [-$405…+$101] · 34% credit	70% surv 57%	-$8,050 NOT cap gain +$7,700
Max even-money escape in the band	~$115	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.14/sh	+$68 cycle +$178 [-$921…+$152] · 34% credit	83% surv 79%	-$559 NOT cap gain +$15,191
reaches SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,650/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	-28%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	36% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,597/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $100 is $17 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,388
… as % of IC ($14,500)	57.8%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,760

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $100.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-100.24	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.24	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (2.3σ)	$110	$-8,665	+$7,085	-$250
+2.5%	$102.50 (2.8σ)	$-1,140	$-8,585	+$7,165	-$1,500
+5%	$105.00 (3.2σ)	$-2,390	$-8,505	+$7,245	-$2,750
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (4.8σ)	$-6,890	$-8,217	+$7,533	-$7,250

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,388

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,122 (+$7,628 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,250, the opportunity cost of earning $1,650/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

3 × $96

31 Jul

10.5%

94%hist 100%

12%hist 5%

+4pp

$162

$2,430

—

$6,137

Sell 3 × $96 10.5% OTM over spot $86.89 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.57 mid)

= $162 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,430/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $96.58)

95%

EV / mo

+$2,125

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

67% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,324/mo

median; plan ~$900/mo after 68% keep · $4,687 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.4], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$685

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 86% POP

83% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $3.13–$6.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 403 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $99 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (3 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.57/sh	+$170 cycle +$332 [-$44…+$182] · 70% credit	67% surv 52%	-$10,427 NOT cap gain +$5,323
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$107	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.08/sh	+$325 cycle +$487 [-$214…+$304] · 64% credit	80% surv 74%	-$4,362 NOT cap gain +$11,388
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.11/sh	+$32 cycle +$194 [-$240…+$23] · 32% credit	70% surv 57%	-$9,975 NOT cap gain +$5,775
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$45 cycle +$207 [-$577…+$9] · 27% credit	83% surv 80%	-$2,514 NOT cap gain +$13,236
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.40/sh	-$119 cycle +$43 [-$793…-$166] · 8% credit	86% surv 83%	-$1,104 NOT cap gain +$14,646
budget: banked $162 debit $119 (73% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$43 cash · rolled 3 ct earn ≈ $993/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,430/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	+7%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	53% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,647/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $96 is $21 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,137
… as % of IC ($14,500)	42.3%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	13.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.3 mo
Surgical close (3 ct)	$-9,460

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $96.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.6σ)	$162	$-10,597	+$5,153	-$54
+2.5%	$98.40 (2.1σ)	$-558	$-10,041	+$5,709	-$774
+5%	$100.80 (2.5σ)	$-1,278	$-9,484	+$6,266	-$1,494
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (4.8σ)	$-5,238	$-6,421	+$9,329	-$5,454

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (3 × $96): -$6,137

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $114): -$455

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,326 (+$9,424 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,454, the opportunity cost of earning $2,430/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $96

31 Jul

10.5%

94%hist 100%

12%hist 5%

+6pp

$270

$4,050

+$1,620

$10,228

Sell 5 × $96 10.5% OTM over spot $86.89 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.57 mid)

= $270 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,050/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $96)

94%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $96.58)

95%

EV / mo

+$3,541

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+6pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.4/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,750/mo

median; plan ~$1,190/mo after 68% keep · $5,130 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

13%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,142

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 86% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $3.10–$6.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 398 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $99 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$96	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.57/sh	+$283 cycle +$553 [-$72…+$319] · 71% credit	67% surv 52%	-$10,350 NOT cap gain +$5,400
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$107	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.08/sh	+$542 cycle +$812 [-$341…+$516] · 64% credit	80% surv 74%	-$4,181 NOT cap gain +$11,569
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$97	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.11/sh	+$53 cycle +$323 [-$406…+$45] · 36% credit	70% surv 57%	-$9,990 NOT cap gain +$5,760
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$75 cycle +$345 [-$954…+$30] · 28% credit	83% surv 80%	-$2,520 NOT cap gain +$13,230
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.40/sh	-$198 cycle +$72 [-$1,320…-$264] · 9% credit	86% surv 83%	-$1,197 NOT cap gain +$14,553
budget: banked $270 debit $198 (73% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$72 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,655/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,050/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	+78%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	89% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$3,997/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $96 is $21 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,228
… as % of IC ($14,500)	70.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	21.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,767

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $95.04	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $95-96.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$96.00 (1.6σ)	$270	$-10,633	+$5,117	-$90
+2.5%	$98.40 (2.1σ)	$-930	$-10,557	+$5,193	-$1,290
+5%	$100.80 (2.5σ)	$-2,130	$-10,480	+$5,270	-$2,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (4.8σ)	$-8,730	$-10,057	+$5,693	-$9,090

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$10,228

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,962 (+$5,788 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,090, the opportunity cost of earning $4,050/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $95

31 Jul

9.3%

86%hist 99%

28%hist 13%

+11pp

$340

$5,100

+$2,670

$10,658

Sell 5 × $95 9.3% OTM over spot $86.89 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.72 mid)

= $340 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,100/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $95)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $95.72)

88%

EV / mo

+$2,609

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+11pp

77% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,883/mo

median; plan ~$1,960/mo after 68% keep · $5,046 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

16%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,057

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 86% POP

84% survival

Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $3.03–$5.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 471 simulated challenges: the $95 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $98 (overshoots $2.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$95	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.58/sh	+$290 cycle +$630 [-$27…+$308] · 73% credit	67% surv 52%	-$10,806 NOT cap gain +$4,944
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$106	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.08/sh	+$541 cycle +$881 [-$247…+$515] · 64% credit	80% surv 74%	-$4,644 NOT cap gain +$11,106
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$96	3 Aug 2026	4d left	+$0.12/sh	+$59 cycle +$399 [-$351…+$52] · 35% credit	70% surv 57%	-$10,446 NOT cap gain +$5,304
Max even-money escape in the band	~$110	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$76 cycle +$416 [-$846…+$23] · 27% credit	83% surv 80%	-$2,981 NOT cap gain +$12,769
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	22d left	-$0.56/sh	-$278 cycle +$62 [-$1,311…-$348] · 7% credit	86% surv 84%	-$1,207 NOT cap gain +$14,543
budget: banked $340 debit $278 (82% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$62 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,526/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,100/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	+124%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	112% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,047/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $95 is $22 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,658
… as % of IC ($14,500)	73.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	22.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,770

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $95.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $95)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 4d left	3d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $94.05	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $94-95.72	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $95.72	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$95.00 (1.4σ)	$340	$-11,095	+$4,655	-$20
+2.5%	$97.37 (1.9σ)	$-847	$-11,019	+$4,731	-$1,207
+5%	$99.75 (2.3σ)	$-2,035	$-10,943	+$4,807	-$2,395
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (4.8σ)	$-9,160	$-10,487	+$5,263	-$9,520

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $95): -$10,658

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,392 (+$5,358 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,520, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 9d · E[net] $411/mo

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $99 (50% normal), 85% survival, breach 15%, $2,500/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $103 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 91% (breach 15% → 9%) for $900/mo less (36% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $86.89 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $119

7 Aug

37.0%

98%hist 100%

4%hist 1%

-2pp

$28

$93

-$2,407

Sell 2 × $119 37.0% OTM over spot $86.89 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.18 mid)

= $28 credit for the 9d cycle → $93/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $119)

98%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $119.18)

98%

EV / mo

+$66

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-2pp

61% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$422/mo

median; plan ~$287/mo after 68% keep · $1,662 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.6], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,089

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$124 @ 74% POP

64% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.89/sh now → $5.58 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$119	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$2.12/sh	-$423 cycle -$395	63% surv 52%	-$347 NOT cap gain +$15,403
Max even-money escape in the band	~$124	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$17 cycle +$45	74% surv 64%	+$1,279 SAFE cap gain +$17,029

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$93/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	-96%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	2% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$445/mo

Downside budget

✓ $119 is at/above CC-SS $117.00: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-6,308

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.14 collected) or spot ≥ $119.18 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $119)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $117.81	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $118-119.18	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $119.18	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$119.00 (2.7σ)	$28	$77	+$15,827	+$884
+2.5%	$121.97 (3.0σ)	$-567	$172	+$15,922	+$884
+5%	$124.95 (3.2σ)	$-1,162	$267	+$16,017	+$884

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $119): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $114): -$683

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-417 (+$15,333 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$455, the opportunity cost of earning $93/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $103

7 Aug

18.5%

91%hist 100%

20%hist 5%

+3pp

$480

$1,600

-$900

$6,518

Sell 5 × $103 18.5% OTM over spot $86.89 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.02 mid)

= $480 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,600/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $103)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $104.02)

92%

EV / mo

+$1,018

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$983/mo

median; plan ~$669/mo after 68% keep · $3,668 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

15%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,936

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$112 @ 78% POP

72% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $4.11–$7.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 442 simulated challenges: the $103 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $106 (overshoots $2.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$108	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$257 cycle +$737 [-$171…+$644] · 66% credit	74% surv 64%	-$3,724 NOT cap gain +$12,026
Max even-money escape in the band	~$109	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.16/sh	+$80 cycle +$560 [-$386…+$450] · 50% credit	75% surv 66%	-$3,369 NOT cap gain +$12,381
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$112	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.80/sh	-$398 cycle +$82 [-$974…-$68] · 22% credit	78% surv 72%	-$2,251 NOT cap gain +$13,499
budget: banked $480 debit $398 (83% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$82 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,363/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$103	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.51/sh	-$753 cycle -$273 [-$1,216…-$427] · 7% credit	63% surv 52%	-$7,452 NOT cap gain +$8,298

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,600/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	-30%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	35% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,547/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $103 is $14 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,518
… as % of IC ($14,500)	45.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	13.9%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.4 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,780

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $104.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $103)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $101.97	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $102-104.02	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $104.02	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$103.00 (1.4σ)	$480	$-6,699	+$9,051	+$120
+2.5%	$105.57 (1.6σ)	$-807	$-6,617	+$9,133	-$1,167
+5%	$108.15 (1.8σ)	$-2,095	$-6,535	+$9,215	-$2,455
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.3σ)	$-5,020	$-6,347	+$9,403	-$5,380

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $103): -$6,518

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,252 (+$9,498 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,380, the opportunity cost of earning $1,600/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $99

7 Aug

13.9%

85%hist 99%

32%hist 18%

+4pp

$750

$2,500

—

$8,248

Sell 5 × $99 13.9% OTM over spot $86.89 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.58 mid)

= $750 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,500/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $99)

85%

Breach risk

15%

POP (stays ≤ $100.58)

87%

EV / mo

+$1,324

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.2/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,368/mo

median; plan ~$930/mo after 68% keep · $4,426 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

23%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,572

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$110 @ 80% POP

75% survival

Buyback gross: $6.57/sh now → $4.64 mid-life (likely $4.36–$7.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 702 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $102 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$104	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.79/sh	+$394 cycle +$1,144 [-$79…+$631] · 69% credit	74% surv 64%	-$5,711 NOT cap gain +$10,039
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.24/sh	+$118 cycle +$868 [-$410…+$335] · 44% credit	75% surv 67%	-$5,189 NOT cap gain +$10,561
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$110	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.26/sh	-$628 cycle +$122 [-$1,310…-$461] · 10% credit	80% surv 75%	-$3,275 NOT cap gain +$12,475
budget: banked $750 debit $628 (84% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$122 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,825/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$99	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.37/sh	-$684 cycle +$66 [-$1,203…-$497] · 7% credit	63% surv 52%	-$9,242 NOT cap gain +$6,508

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,500/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	+10%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	55% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,447/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $99 is $18 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,248
… as % of IC ($14,500)	56.9%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	17.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,792

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $100.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $98.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $98-100.58	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $100.58	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$99.00 (1.0σ)	$750	$-8,557	+$7,193	+$390
+2.5%	$101.47 (1.2σ)	$-487	$-8,478	+$7,272	-$847
+5%	$103.95 (1.4σ)	$-1,725	$-8,399	+$7,351	-$2,085
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.3σ)	$-6,750	$-8,077	+$7,673	-$7,110

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$8,248

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,982 (+$7,768 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,110, the opportunity cost of earning $2,500/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $93

7 Aug

7.0%

71%hist 96%

62%hist 51%

+9pp

$1,480

$4,933

+$2,433

$10,518

Sell 5 × $93 7.0% OTM over spot $86.89 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $3.08 mid)

= $1,480 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,933/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $93)

71%

Breach risk

29%

POP (stays ≤ $96.08)

78%

EV / mo

+$1,555

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

71% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,122/mo

median; plan ~$1,443/mo after 68% keep · $5,642 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 71% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

45%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$702

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 90% POP

88% survival

Buyback gross: $6.17/sh now → $4.36 mid-life (likely $5.11–$7.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,361 simulated challenges: the $93 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 9, at $95 (overshoots $2.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$97	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.07/sh	+$536 cycle +$2,016 [-$67…+$428] · 69% credit	73% surv 63%	-$8,297 NOT cap gain +$7,453
Max even-money escape in the band	~$100	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.03/sh	+$14 cycle +$1,494 [-$677…-$136] · 18% credit	77% surv 69%	-$7,223 NOT cap gain +$8,527
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$93	10 Aug 2026	8d left	-$1.17/sh	-$587 cycle +$893 [-$1,253…-$727] · 4% credit	64% surv 52%	-$11,607 NOT cap gain +$4,143
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.91/sh	-$1,456 cycle +$24 [-$2,562…-$1,743]	90% surv 88%	-$1,245 NOT cap gain +$14,505
budget: banked $1,480 debit $1,456 (98% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$24 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,210/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,933/mo
vs 50% target ($2,277/mo)	+117%
vs normal income ($4,554/mo)	108% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$4,880/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $93 is $24 below CC-SS $117.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$10,518
… as % of IC ($14,500)	72.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	22.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.3 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,810

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.74/sh (~25% of the $2.96 collected) or spot ≥ $96.08 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $93)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $122.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $92.07	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $92-96.08	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $96.08	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$93.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,480	$-11,019	+$4,731	+$1,120
+2.5%	$95.32 (≤1σ, normal week)	$318	$-10,945	+$4,805	-$42
+5%	$97.65 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-845	$-10,871	+$4,879	-$1,205
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.3σ)	$-9,020	$-10,347	+$5,403	-$9,380

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.00, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,750

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,016

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $93): -$10,518

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,252 (+$5,498 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-872 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,380, the opportunity cost of earning $4,933/mo FIGHT income now)

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (89 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (8 expiries scanned, 89 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.064 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,016 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-872

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$96	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.54	3/5	$2,430	$2,647	94%	95%	+$2,125	-$6,137	42.3%	$-6,326 (vs do-nothing $-5,454)
$98	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.35	5/5	$2,625	$2,572	93%	93%	+$1,644	-$9,323	64.3%	$-9,057 (vs do-nothing $-8,185)
$97	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.44	4/5	$2,640	$2,722	91%	92%	+$1,588	-$7,822	53.9%	$-7,784 (vs do-nothing $-6,912)
$95	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.68	3/5	$3,060	$3,277	86%	88%	+$1,566	-$6,395	44.1%	$-6,584 (vs do-nothing $-5,712)
$96	5d	3 Aug 2026	$0.94	5/5	$2,820	$2,767	85%	87%	+$1,351	-$10,028	69.2%	$-9,762 (vs do-nothing $-8,890)
$99	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.50	5/5	$2,500	$2,447	85%	87%	+$1,324	-$8,248	56.9%	$-7,982 (vs do-nothing $-7,110)
$94	2d	31 Jul 2026	$0.86	2/5	$2,580	$2,932	84%	86%	+$1,277	-$4,427	30.5%	$-4,844 (vs do-nothing $-3,972)
$98	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.68	5/5	$2,800	$2,747	83%	86%	+$1,411	-$8,658	59.7%	$-8,392 (vs do-nothing $-7,520)
$95	5d	3 Aug 2026	$1.14	4/5	$2,736	$2,818	83%	86%	+$1,298	-$8,342	57.5%	$-8,304 (vs do-nothing $-7,432)
$97	7d	5 Aug 2026	$1.36	4/5	$2,331	$2,413	82%	85%	+$956	-$7,454	51.4%	$-7,416 (vs do-nothing $-6,544)
$93	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.04	2/5	$3,120	$3,472	80%	84%	+$1,376	-$4,591	31.7%	$-5,008 (vs do-nothing $-4,136)
$96	7d	5 Aug 2026	$1.54	4/5	$2,640	$2,722	80%	84%	+$1,008	-$7,782	53.7%	$-7,744 (vs do-nothing $-6,872)
$94	5d	3 Aug 2026	$1.33	3/5	$2,394	$2,611	80%	84%	+$1,037	-$6,500	44.8%	$-6,689 (vs do-nothing $-5,817)

Show 76 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Showing the 60 next-safest rows of 76.

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$97	9d	7 Aug 2026	$1.89	4/5	$2,520	$2,602	80%	83%	+$975	-$7,242	49.9%	$-7,204 (vs do-nothing $-6,332)
$99	16d	14 Aug 2026	$2.56	5/5	$2,400	$2,347	79%	83%	+$858	-$7,718	53.2%	$-7,452 (vs do-nothing $-6,580)
$95	7d	5 Aug 2026	$1.77	4/5	$3,034	$3,116	78%	82%	+$1,103	-$8,090	55.8%	$-8,052 (vs do-nothing $-7,180)
$96	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.12	4/5	$2,827	$2,909	78%	82%	+$1,043	-$7,550	52.1%	$-7,512 (vs do-nothing $-6,640)
$98	16d	14 Aug 2026	$2.78	5/5	$2,606	$2,553	77%	82%	+$892	-$8,108	55.9%	$-7,842 (vs do-nothing $-6,970)
$93	5d	3 Aug 2026	$1.57	3/5	$2,826	$3,043	77%	82%	+$1,132	-$6,728	46.4%	$-6,917 (vs do-nothing $-6,045)
$92	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.28	2/5	$3,840	$4,192	76%	81%	+$1,533	-$4,743	32.7%	$-5,160 (vs do-nothing $-4,288)
$99	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	5/5	$2,283	$2,229	76%	81%	+$749	-$7,248	50.0%	$-6,982 (vs do-nothing $-6,110)
$97	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	5/5	$2,812	$2,759	76%	81%	+$944	-$8,498	58.6%	$-8,232 (vs do-nothing $-7,360)
$95	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.38	3/5	$2,380	$2,597	75%	81%	+$839	-$5,885	40.6%	$-6,074 (vs do-nothing $-5,202)
$94	7d	5 Aug 2026	$2.04	3/5	$2,623	$2,840	75%	81%	+$914	-$6,287	43.4%	$-6,476 (vs do-nothing $-5,604)
$95	12d	10 Aug 2026	$2.18	5/5	$2,725	$2,672	75%	81%	+$667	-$9,908	68.3%	$-9,642 (vs do-nothing $-8,770)
$98	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.75	5/5	$2,446	$2,392	75%	80%	+$772	-$7,623	52.6%	$-7,357 (vs do-nothing $-6,485)
$97.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$3.90	5/5	$2,543	$2,490	74%	80%	+$795	-$7,798	53.8%	$-7,532 (vs do-nothing $-6,660)
$96	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.25	4/5	$2,438	$2,519	74%	80%	+$774	-$7,098	49.0%	$-7,060 (vs do-nothing $-6,188)
$97	23d	21 Aug 2026	$4.00	5/5	$2,609	$2,556	73%	79%	+$784	-$7,998	55.2%	$-7,732 (vs do-nothing $-6,860)
$92	5d	3 Aug 2026	$1.74	3/5	$3,132	$3,349	73%	79%	+$1,031	-$6,977	48.1%	$-7,166 (vs do-nothing $-6,294)
$94	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.66	3/5	$2,660	$2,877	73%	79%	+$890	-$6,101	42.1%	$-6,290 (vs do-nothing $-5,418)
$93	7d	5 Aug 2026	$2.31	3/5	$2,970	$3,187	73%	79%	+$963	-$6,506	44.9%	$-6,695 (vs do-nothing $-5,823)
$91	2d	31 Jul 2026	$1.69	1/5	$2,535	$3,022	72%	79%	+$1,043	-$2,431	16.8%	$-3,075 (vs do-nothing $-2,203)
$95	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.55	4/5	$2,662	$2,744	72%	78%	+$814	-$7,378	50.9%	$-7,340 (vs do-nothing $-6,468)
$90	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.04	1/5	$3,060	$3,547	72%	83%	+$1,916	-$2,496	17.2%	$-3,140 (vs do-nothing $-2,268)
$96	23d	21 Aug 2026	$4.30	5/5	$2,804	$2,751	72%	78%	+$816	-$8,348	57.6%	$-8,082 (vs do-nothing $-7,210)
$93	9d	7 Aug 2026	$2.96	3/5	$2,960	$3,177	71%	78%	+$933	-$6,311	43.5%	$-6,500 (vs do-nothing $-5,628)
$95	23d	21 Aug 2026	$4.60	4/5	$2,400	$2,482	70%	77%	+$669	-$6,958	48.0%	$-6,920 (vs do-nothing $-6,048)
$94	16d	14 Aug 2026	$3.85	4/5	$2,888	$2,969	70%	77%	+$838	-$7,658	52.8%	$-7,620 (vs do-nothing $-6,748)
$92	7d	5 Aug 2026	$2.62	3/5	$3,369	$3,585	70%	77%	+$1,020	-$6,713	46.3%	$-6,902 (vs do-nothing $-6,030)
$91	5d	3 Aug 2026	$1.98	2/5	$2,376	$2,728	69%	77%	+$663	-$4,803	33.1%	$-5,220 (vs do-nothing $-4,348)
$92.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.05	3/5	$3,050	$3,267	69%	77%	+$883	-$6,434	44.4%	$-6,623 (vs do-nothing $-5,751)
$92	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.25	3/5	$3,250	$3,467	69%	77%	+$1,170	-$6,524	45.0%	$-6,713 (vs do-nothing $-5,841)
$94	23d	21 Aug 2026	$4.95	4/5	$2,583	$2,664	68%	76%	+$700	-$7,218	49.8%	$-7,180 (vs do-nothing $-6,308)
$93	16d	14 Aug 2026	$4.20	3/5	$2,362	$2,579	68%	76%	+$662	-$5,939	41.0%	$-6,128 (vs do-nothing $-5,256)
$91.50	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	3/5	$3,400	$3,617	67%	77%	+$1,171	-$6,629	45.7%	$-6,818 (vs do-nothing $-5,946)
$92.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$4.30	3/5	$2,419	$2,636	67%	76%	+$631	-$6,059	41.8%	$-6,248 (vs do-nothing $-5,376)
$91	7d	5 Aug 2026	$2.82	2/5	$2,417	$2,769	67%	76%	+$594	-$4,635	32.0%	$-5,052 (vs do-nothing $-4,180)
$93	23d	21 Aug 2026	$5.25	4/5	$2,739	$2,821	66%	75%	+$694	-$7,498	51.7%	$-7,460 (vs do-nothing $-6,588)
$91	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.60	2/5	$2,400	$2,752	66%	76%	+$809	-$4,479	30.9%	$-4,896 (vs do-nothing $-4,024)
$92	16d	14 Aug 2026	$4.55	3/5	$2,559	$2,776	66%	75%	+$681	-$6,134	42.3%	$-6,323 (vs do-nothing $-5,451)
$92.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$5.45	4/5	$2,843	$2,925	66%	75%	+$713	-$7,618	52.5%	$-7,580 (vs do-nothing $-6,708)
$90	5d	3 Aug 2026	$2.50	2/5	$3,000	$3,352	65%	75%	+$902	-$4,899	33.8%	$-5,316 (vs do-nothing $-4,444)
$91.50	16d	14 Aug 2026	$4.70	3/5	$2,644	$2,861	65%	75%	+$672	-$6,239	43.0%	$-6,428 (vs do-nothing $-5,556)
$92	23d	21 Aug 2026	$5.60	4/5	$2,922	$3,004	65%	75%	+$703	-$7,758	53.5%	$-7,720 (vs do-nothing $-6,848)
$91.50	23d	21 Aug 2026	$5.80	4/5	$3,026	$3,108	64%	74%	+$716	-$7,878	54.3%	$-7,840 (vs do-nothing $-6,968)
$91	16d	14 Aug 2026	$4.90	3/5	$2,756	$2,973	63%	74%	+$687	-$6,329	43.6%	$-6,518 (vs do-nothing $-5,646)
$90	7d	5 Aug 2026	$3.30	2/5	$2,829	$3,180	63%	74%	+$715	-$4,739	32.7%	$-5,156 (vs do-nothing $-4,284)
$89	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.43	1/5	$3,645	$4,132	63%	74%	+$1,232	-$2,557	17.6%	$-3,201 (vs do-nothing $-2,329)
$90	9d	7 Aug 2026	$3.95	2/5	$2,633	$2,985	63%	74%	+$814	-$4,609	31.8%	$-5,026 (vs do-nothing $-4,154)
$91	23d	21 Aug 2026	$6.00	3/5	$2,348	$2,565	63%	74%	+$544	-$5,999	41.4%	$-6,188 (vs do-nothing $-5,316)
$90	12d	10 Aug 2026	$3.90	3/5	$2,925	$3,142	62%	74%	+$607	-$6,929	47.8%	$-7,118 (vs do-nothing $-6,246)
$90	14d	12 Aug 2026	$4.25	3/5	$2,732	$2,949	62%	74%	+$554	-$6,824	47.1%	$-7,013 (vs do-nothing $-6,141)
$89	5d	3 Aug 2026	$2.61	2/5	$3,132	$3,484	61%	72%	+$630	-$5,077	35.0%	$-5,494 (vs do-nothing $-4,622)
$90	16d	14 Aug 2026	$5.30	3/5	$2,981	$3,198	61%	73%	+$705	-$6,509	44.9%	$-6,698 (vs do-nothing $-5,826)
$90	23d	21 Aug 2026	$6.40	3/5	$2,504	$2,721	61%	73%	+$552	-$6,179	42.6%	$-6,368 (vs do-nothing $-5,496)
$89	7d	5 Aug 2026	$3.70	2/5	$3,171	$3,523	60%	72%	+$733	-$4,859	33.5%	$-5,276 (vs do-nothing $-4,404)
$89	9d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	2/5	$2,933	$3,285	60%	73%	+$863	-$4,719	32.5%	$-5,136 (vs do-nothing $-4,264)
$89	16d	14 Aug 2026	$5.70	3/5	$3,206	$3,423	59%	72%	+$709	-$6,689	46.1%	$-6,878 (vs do-nothing $-6,006)
$89	23d	21 Aug 2026	$6.80	3/5	$2,661	$2,878	59%	72%	+$550	-$6,359	43.9%	$-6,548 (vs do-nothing $-5,676)
$88	2d	31 Jul 2026	$2.85	1/5	$4,275	$4,762	58%	72%	+$1,270	-$2,615	18.0%	$-3,259 (vs do-nothing $-2,387)
$88	5d	3 Aug 2026	$3.15	2/5	$3,780	$4,132	57%	70%	+$792	-$5,169	35.6%	$-5,586 (vs do-nothing $-4,714)
$88	23d	21 Aug 2026	$7.25	3/5	$2,837	$3,054	57%	71%	+$558	-$6,524	45.0%	$-6,713 (vs do-nothing $-5,841)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-29 21:41