5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.80 (banked floor $113.85) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,050/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $54/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,770 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $110C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.30 | $648 | 2026-07-27 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 5 × $92.50 | 80% | $2,662 | $337 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $125 | 7 Aug | 8d | 49.2% | 99%hist 100% | 1%hist 1% | -1pp | $15 | $56 | -$2,606 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $125 49.2% OTM over spot $83.79 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.07 mid) = $15 credit for the 8d cycle → $56/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $125) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $125.06) 99% EV / mo +$44 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $141/mo median; plan ~$96/mo after 68% keep · $808 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,308 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $130 @ 72% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.23/sh now → $4.41 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $125 is at/above CC-SS $117.80: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.05 collected) or spot ≥ $125.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $125)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $123.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,306 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $125): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $114): -$684 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,149 (+$14,621 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,027, the opportunity cost of earning $56/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $98 | 7 Aug | 8d | 17.0% | 90%hist 100% | 20%hist 13% | +5pp | $365 | $1,369 | -$1,294 | $9,536 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $98 17.0% OTM over spot $83.79 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.78 mid) = $365 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,369/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $98) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $98.78) 91% EV / mo +$756 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $808/mo median; plan ~$549/mo after 68% keep · $4,597 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.6 mo [1.3-4.4], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,363 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $108 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.89/sh now → $3.46 mid-life (likely $2.92–$5.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 436 simulated challenges: the $98 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $101 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $98 is $20 below CC-SS $117.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.73 collected) or spot ≥ $98.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $98)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $123.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,306 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $98): -$9,536 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,001 (+$5,769 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,825, the opportunity cost of earning $1,369/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $96 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.6% | 87%hist 99% | 27%hist 13% | +4pp | $465 | $1,744 | -$919 | $10,436 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 14.6% OTM over spot $83.79 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.00 mid) = $465 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,744/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $97.00) 89% EV / mo +$829 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $927/mo median; plan ~$631/mo after 68% keep · $5,547 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.3-4.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,228 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $107 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.79/sh now → $3.39 mid-life (likely $3.40–$5.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 616 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $2.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $22 below CC-SS $117.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.93 collected) or spot ≥ $97.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $123.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,306 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$10,436 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,901 (+$4,869 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,725, the opportunity cost of earning $1,744/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $92.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 10.4% | 80%hist 96% | 42%hist 28% | +7pp | $710 | $2,662 | — | $11,941 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $92.50 10.4% OTM over spot $83.79 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.50 mid) = $710 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,662/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $92.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $94.00) 83% EV / mo +$903 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 56% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,241/mo median; plan ~$844/mo after 68% keep · $5,759 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.4], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$921 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $107 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.61/sh now → $3.26 mid-life (likely $3.33–$5.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $92 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $95 (overshoots $2.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $92.50 is $25 below CC-SS $117.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.42 collected) or spot ≥ $94.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $92)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $123.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,306 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $92.50): -$11,941 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,406 (+$3,364 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,230, the opportunity cost of earning $2,662/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $87 | 7 Aug | 8d | 3.8% | 64%hist 80% | 75%hist 59% | +11pp | $1,350 | $5,062 | +$2,400 | $14,051 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $87 3.8% OTM over spot $83.79 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.82 mid) = $1,350 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,062/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $87) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $89.82) 73% EV / mo +$733 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +11pp 65% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,612/mo median; plan ~$1,096/mo after 68% keep · $7,124 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.9 mo [1.0-3.8], measured ONLY among the 65% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$184 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $108 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.34/sh now → $3.07 mid-life (likely $3.93–$5.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,847 simulated challenges: the $87 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $89 (overshoots $2.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $87 is $31 below CC-SS $117.80: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.68/sh (~25% of the $2.70 collected) or spot ≥ $89.82 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $87)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $123.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.80, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,770 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$15,306 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $87): -$14,051 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,516 (+$1,254 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,176 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,340, the opportunity cost of earning $5,062/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 52 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$15,306 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,176
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $91 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $0.70 | 5/5 | $2,625 | $2,571 | 83% | 85% | +$818 | -$13,051 | 90.0% | $-15,516 (vs do-nothing $-11,340) |
| $92.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.42 | 5/5 | $2,662 | $2,609 | 80% | 83% | +$903 | -$11,941 | 82.4% | $-14,406 (vs do-nothing $-10,230) |
| $90 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $0.85 | 4/5 | $2,550 | $2,572 | 80% | 83% | +$658 | -$10,781 | 74.4% | $-13,588 (vs do-nothing $-9,412) |
| $92 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 5/5 | $2,831 | $2,777 | 79% | 82% | +$909 | -$12,146 | 83.8% | $-14,611 (vs do-nothing $-10,435) |
| $91 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 5/5 | $2,550 | $2,496 | 78% | 81% | +$1 | -$12,891 | 88.9% | $-15,356 (vs do-nothing $-11,180) |
| $91.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 5/5 | $3,000 | $2,946 | 77% | 82% | +$903 | -$12,351 | 85.2% | $-14,816 (vs do-nothing $-10,640) |
| $89 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $1.00 | 4/5 | $3,000 | $3,022 | 76% | 80% | +$553 | -$11,121 | 76.7% | $-13,928 (vs do-nothing $-9,752) |
| $91 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.70 | 4/5 | $2,550 | $2,572 | 76% | 81% | +$722 | -$10,041 | 69.2% | $-12,848 (vs do-nothing $-8,672) |
| $90 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.36 | 4/5 | $2,720 | $2,742 | 75% | 79% | +$282 | -$10,577 | 72.9% | $-13,384 (vs do-nothing $-9,208) |
| $90 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.92 | 4/5 | $2,880 | $2,902 | 73% | 79% | +$718 | -$10,353 | 71.4% | $-13,160 (vs do-nothing $-8,984) |
| $91.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.65 | 5/5 | $2,650 | $2,596 | 72% | 78% | +$432 | -$11,826 | 81.6% | $-14,291 (vs do-nothing $-10,115) |
| $88 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $1.18 | 3/5 | $2,655 | $2,753 | 72% | 77% | +$311 | -$8,587 | 59.2% | $-11,736 (vs do-nothing $-7,560) |
| $89 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.43 | 4/5 | $2,860 | $2,882 | 72% | 77% | $-44 | -$10,949 | 75.5% | $-13,756 (vs do-nothing $-9,580) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $91 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 5/5 | $2,680 | $2,626 | 71% | 77% | +$333 | -$12,061 | 83.2% | $-14,526 (vs do-nothing $-10,350) |
| $89 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 4/5 | $3,225 | $3,247 | 70% | 77% | +$682 | -$10,661 | 73.5% | $-13,468 (vs do-nothing $-9,292) |
| $90 | 13d | 12 Aug 2026 | $2.34 | 5/5 | $2,700 | $2,646 | 70% | 77% | +$21 | -$12,731 | 87.8% | $-15,196 (vs do-nothing $-11,020) |
| $90 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 5/5 | $3,050 | $2,996 | 69% | 76% | +$426 | -$12,376 | 85.4% | $-14,841 (vs do-nothing $-10,665) |
| $91 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 5/5 | $2,557 | $2,503 | 69% | 76% | +$294 | -$11,526 | 79.5% | $-13,991 (vs do-nothing $-9,815) |
| $88 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.79 | 3/5 | $2,685 | $2,783 | 68% | 75% | +$103 | -$8,404 | 58.0% | $-11,553 (vs do-nothing $-7,377) |
| $87 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $1.44 | 3/5 | $3,240 | $3,338 | 68% | 74% | +$280 | -$8,809 | 60.7% | $-11,958 (vs do-nothing $-7,782) |
| $88 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.41 | 3/5 | $2,711 | $2,809 | 67% | 75% | +$480 | -$8,218 | 56.7% | $-11,367 (vs do-nothing $-7,191) |
| $90 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 5/5 | $2,727 | $2,673 | 67% | 74% | +$262 | -$11,901 | 82.1% | $-14,366 (vs do-nothing $-10,190) |
| $89 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $2,640 | $2,662 | 67% | 74% | +$299 | -$10,201 | 70.4% | $-13,008 (vs do-nothing $-8,832) |
| $89 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 5/5 | $2,932 | $2,878 | 65% | 73% | +$248 | -$12,251 | 84.5% | $-14,716 (vs do-nothing $-10,540) |
| $87 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $2.07 | 3/5 | $3,105 | $3,203 | 65% | 72% | +$59 | -$8,620 | 59.4% | $-11,769 (vs do-nothing $-7,593) |
| $88 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 4/5 | $2,880 | $2,902 | 64% | 73% | +$276 | -$10,481 | 72.3% | $-13,288 (vs do-nothing $-9,112) |
| $87 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 3/5 | $3,038 | $3,136 | 64% | 73% | +$440 | -$8,431 | 58.1% | $-11,580 (vs do-nothing $-7,404) |
| $88 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 4/5 | $2,536 | $2,559 | 63% | 72% | +$202 | -$10,061 | 69.4% | $-12,868 (vs do-nothing $-8,692) |
| $86 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $1.63 | 3/5 | $3,668 | $3,766 | 63% | 71% | $-24 | -$9,052 | 62.4% | $-12,201 (vs do-nothing $-8,025) |
| $87.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $2,618 | $2,640 | 62% | 72% | +$185 | -$10,201 | 70.4% | $-13,008 (vs do-nothing $-8,832) |
| $87 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 4/5 | $3,160 | $3,182 | 62% | 71% | +$270 | -$10,741 | 74.1% | $-13,548 (vs do-nothing $-9,372) |
| $87 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.95 | 4/5 | $2,700 | $2,722 | 61% | 71% | +$165 | -$10,341 | 71.3% | $-13,148 (vs do-nothing $-8,972) |
| $86 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 3/5 | $3,555 | $3,653 | 61% | 70% | $-20 | -$8,830 | 60.9% | $-11,979 (vs do-nothing $-7,803) |
| $86 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 3/5 | $3,375 | $3,473 | 61% | 71% | +$368 | -$8,641 | 59.6% | $-11,790 (vs do-nothing $-7,614) |
| $86 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 4/5 | $3,320 | $3,342 | 59% | 70% | +$121 | -$11,061 | 76.3% | $-13,868 (vs do-nothing $-9,692) |
| $86 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 4/5 | $2,918 | $2,940 | 59% | 70% | +$169 | -$10,581 | 73.0% | $-13,388 (vs do-nothing $-9,212) |
| $85 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 2/5 | $2,940 | $3,114 | 58% | 68% | $-94 | -$6,168 | 42.5% | $-9,660 (vs do-nothing $-5,484) |
| $85 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $2.71 | 2/5 | $2,710 | $2,884 | 57% | 68% | $-72 | -$6,018 | 41.5% | $-9,510 (vs do-nothing $-5,334) |
| $85 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.34 | 3/5 | $3,762 | $3,860 | 57% | 69% | +$299 | -$8,837 | 60.9% | $-11,986 (vs do-nothing $-7,811) |
| $85 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.75 | 4/5 | $3,136 | $3,159 | 57% | 69% | +$158 | -$10,821 | 74.6% | $-13,628 (vs do-nothing $-9,452) |
| $85 | 13d | 12 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $3,046 | $3,068 | 57% | 68% | $-664 | -$11,801 | 81.4% | $-14,608 (vs do-nothing $-10,432) |
| $85 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 3/5 | $2,790 | $2,888 | 57% | 69% | +$141 | -$8,446 | 58.2% | $-11,595 (vs do-nothing $-7,419) |
| $84 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.05 | 4/5 | $3,300 | $3,322 | 55% | 68% | +$78 | -$11,101 | 76.6% | $-13,908 (vs do-nothing $-9,732) |
| $84 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 3/5 | $3,030 | $3,128 | 54% | 67% | +$112 | -$8,626 | 59.5% | $-11,775 (vs do-nothing $-7,599) |
| $84 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 2/5 | $3,050 | $3,224 | 53% | 66% | $-179 | -$6,150 | 42.4% | $-9,642 (vs do-nothing $-5,466) |
| $84 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 2/5 | $3,435 | $3,609 | 53% | 65% | $-260 | -$6,302 | 43.5% | $-9,794 (vs do-nothing $-5,618) |
| $83 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.55 | 3/5 | $2,680 | $2,778 | 52% | 67% | +$69 | -$8,476 | 58.5% | $-11,625 (vs do-nothing $-7,449) |
| $83 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 3/5 | $3,270 | $3,368 | 51% | 66% | +$64 | -$8,806 | 60.7% | $-11,955 (vs do-nothing $-7,779) |
| $82.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.80 | 3/5 | $2,782 | $2,880 | 51% | 66% | +$70 | -$8,551 | 59.0% | $-11,700 (vs do-nothing $-7,524) |
| $83 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.12 | 2/5 | $3,092 | $3,266 | 50% | 65% | +$80 | -$6,136 | 42.3% | $-9,627 (vs do-nothing $-5,451) |
| $83 | 6d | 5 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 2/5 | $3,450 | $3,624 | 49% | 64% | $-275 | -$6,270 | 43.2% | $-9,762 (vs do-nothing $-5,586) |
| $83 | 4d | 3 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 2/5 | $3,930 | $4,104 | 48% | 62% | $-519 | -$6,436 | 44.4% | $-9,928 (vs do-nothing $-5,752) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.