FORTRESS FIGHT: INTC @ $87.38

BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.78 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

INTC @ $87.38 UNDERWATER $26.62 (23.4% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $117.78 (banked floor $113.83) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $85 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.553/sh)

SP: $100 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $28.728/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $0.283/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$47,000	(ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,620/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$48/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-15,927	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,810/mo

HEDGE COVER
$48/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$5,620/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $14,500

ML VELOCITY
8.4 mo to earn back $47,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $117.78 (probe: $118C 15d) brings only $410/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$2,071

Hole (after banked)

$13,856

was $15,927 · 13% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$648

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$117.78 → $113.83

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $110C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$1.30	$648	2026-07-27

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 43 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 19 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $151.64 (+74%) · daily UBB $120.58 · 1-wk expected move ±$10 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-22: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 5 contracts at $97 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($2,810/mo); it brings $2,812/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 5 × $91/8d for $5,625/mo, but breach risk rises to 35% (+15pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 2 × $120/8d (99% survival, $60/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $9,641 (66% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $114, recoverable in 1.7 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 5 contracts realizes $-15,962 and cuts bleed by $48/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 5 × $97, 80% survival, $2,812/mo (E[net] $453/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	5 × $97	80%	$2,812	$453

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $750 with probability 72%; on the 28% touch you roll, paying $1,864 to close and taking $337 back from the best priced door (net cash $1,527) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $453/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 5 × $97 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $2,812/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $100 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $881/mo less (31% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

INTC spot $87.38 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

2 × $120

7 Aug

37.3%

99%hist 100%

3%hist 1%

-0pp

$16

$60

-$2,752

Sell 2 × $120 37.3% OTM over spot $87.38 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.10 mid)

= $16 credit for the 8d cycle → $60/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $120)

99%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $120.10)

99%

EV / mo

+$40

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

-0pp

63% whole by 9mo vs 63% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$340/mo

median; plan ~$231/mo after 68% keep · $1,065 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 63% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$907

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$126 @ 73% POP

65% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 2 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.52/sh now → $4.61 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (2 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$120	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$2.26/sh	-$451 cycle -$435	60% surv 52%	-$605 NOT cap gain +$15,322
Max even-money escape in the band	~$126	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.23/sh	+$45 cycle +$61	73% surv 65%	+$1,201 SAFE cap gain +$17,128

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$60/mo
vs 50% target ($2,810/mo)	-98%
vs normal income ($5,620/mo)	1% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$354/mo

Downside budget

✓ $120 is at/above CC-SS $117.78: assignment is break-even or better.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$0
… as % of IC ($14,500)	0.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	0.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.0 mo
Surgical close (2 ct)	$-6,375

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $120.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $120)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $118.80	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $119-120.10	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $120.10	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$120.00 (3.0σ)	$16	$-154	+$15,773	+$1,102
+2.5%	$123.00 (3.3σ)	$-584	$-55	+$15,872	+$1,102
+5%	$126.00 (3.6σ)	$-1,184	$44	+$15,971	+$1,102

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,927

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,204

− CC assignment net of premium (2 × $120): -$0

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $114): -$964

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-687 (+$15,241 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$642, the opportunity cost of earning $60/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🛡 safe yield

5 × $104

7 Aug

19.0%

91%hist 100%

19%hist 5%

+2pp

$315

$1,181

-$1,631

$6,576

Sell 5 × $104 19.0% OTM over spot $87.38 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.70 mid)

= $315 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,181/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $104)

91%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $104.70)

92%

EV / mo

+$562

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 66% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$739/mo

median; plan ~$503/mo after 68% keep · $2,329 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-2.9], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

10%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,684

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$114 @ 78% POP

73% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.65/sh now → $4.00 mid-life (likely $3.12–$5.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $104 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $107 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$110	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.58/sh	+$290 cycle +$605 [-$59…+$695] · 71% credit	74% surv 65%	-$3,469 NOT cap gain +$12,459
Max even-money escape in the band	~$111	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.28/sh	+$138 cycle +$453 [-$243…+$529] · 57% credit	75% surv 67%	-$3,088 NOT cap gain +$12,840
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$114	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.63/sh	-$313 cycle +$2 [-$778…+$48] · 30% credit	78% surv 73%	-$1,939 NOT cap gain +$13,988
budget: banked $315 debit $313 (99% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$2 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,810/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$104	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$1.74/sh	-$868 cycle -$553 [-$1,353…-$519] · 1% credit	60% surv 52%	-$7,622 NOT cap gain +$8,305

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,181/mo
vs 50% target ($2,810/mo)	-58%
vs normal income ($5,620/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,133/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $104 is $14 below CC-SS $117.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$6,576
… as % of IC ($14,500)	45.4%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	14.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.2 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,962

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $104.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $104)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $102.96	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $103-104.70	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $104.70	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$104.00 (1.5σ)	$315	$-6,754	+$9,173	+$30
+2.5%	$106.60 (1.8σ)	$-985	$-6,668	+$9,259	-$1,270
+5%	$109.20 (2.0σ)	$-2,285	$-6,582	+$9,345	-$2,570
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.5σ)	$-4,685	$-6,424	+$9,503	-$4,970

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,927

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,204

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $104): -$6,576

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,299 (+$9,628 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,970, the opportunity cost of earning $1,181/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

33% normal

5 × $100

7 Aug

14.4%

86%hist 99%

30%hist 13%

+3pp

$515

$1,931

-$881

$8,376

Sell 5 × $100 14.4% OTM over spot $87.38 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.09 mid)

= $515 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,931/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $100)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $101.09)

87%

EV / mo

+$742

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

68% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.3/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,044/mo

median; plan ~$710/mo after 68% keep · $3,779 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.4], measured ONLY among the 68% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

18%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,407

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$112 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Buyback gross: $5.43/sh now → $3.84 mid-life (likely $3.48–$5.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 533 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $103 (overshoots $2.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$106	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.64/sh	+$319 cycle +$834 [-$38…+$552] · 70% credit	74% surv 66%	-$5,372 NOT cap gain +$10,556
Max even-money escape in the band	~$108	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$18 cycle +$533 [-$399…+$224] · 41% credit	76% surv 69%	-$4,606 NOT cap gain +$11,321
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$112	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.00/sh	-$501 cycle +$14 [-$1,048…-$343] · 12% credit	81% surv 76%	-$2,994 NOT cap gain +$12,933
budget: banked $515 debit $501 (97% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$14 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,367/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$100	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$1.62/sh	-$809 cycle -$294 [-$1,317…-$642] · 1% credit	60% surv 52%	-$9,495 NOT cap gain +$6,433

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$1,931/mo
vs 50% target ($2,810/mo)	-31%
vs normal income ($5,620/mo)	34% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,883/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $117.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$8,376
… as % of IC ($14,500)	57.8%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	17.8%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,960

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $101.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $99.00	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $99-101.09	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $101.09	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$100.00 (1.2σ)	$515	$-8,686	+$7,241	+$230
+2.5%	$102.50 (1.4σ)	$-735	$-8,604	+$7,324	-$1,020
+5%	$105.00 (1.6σ)	$-1,985	$-8,521	+$7,406	-$2,270
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.5σ)	$-6,485	$-8,224	+$7,703	-$6,770

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,927

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,204

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$8,376

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,099 (+$7,828 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,770, the opportunity cost of earning $1,931/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

5 × $97

7 Aug

11.0%

80%hist 99%

41%hist 28%

+5pp

$750

$2,812

—

$9,641

Sell 5 × $97 11.0% OTM over spot $87.38 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.57 mid)

= $750 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,812/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $97)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $98.57)

83%

EV / mo

+$896

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

66% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$1,372/mo

median; plan ~$933/mo after 68% keep · $5,300 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 66% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

28%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,114

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$111 @ 83% POP

80% survival

Buyback gross: $5.27/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $3.78–$6.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 829 simulated challenges: the $97 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $100 (overshoots $2.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$103	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.67/sh	+$337 cycle +$1,087 [-$141…+$422] · 61% credit	74% surv 66%	-$6,718 NOT cap gain +$9,210
Max even-money escape in the band	~$105	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.08/sh	+$38 cycle +$788 [-$504…+$99] · 31% credit	76% surv 70%	-$5,951 NOT cap gain +$9,977
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$111	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.35/sh	-$676 cycle +$74 [-$1,390…-$674] · 4% credit	83% surv 80%	-$3,467 NOT cap gain +$12,461
budget: banked $750 debit $676 (90% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$74 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,981/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$97	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$1.53/sh	-$765 cycle -$15 [-$1,413…-$737] · 2% credit	60% surv 52%	-$10,815 NOT cap gain +$5,112

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,812/mo
vs 50% target ($2,810/mo)	+0%
vs normal income ($5,620/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,764/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $97 is $21 below CC-SS $117.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$9,641
… as % of IC ($14,500)	66.5%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	20.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.7 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,962

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $98.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $97)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $96.03	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $96-98.57	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $98.57	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$97.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$750	$-10,050	+$5,877	+$465
+2.5%	$99.42 (1.1σ)	$-462	$-9,970	+$5,957	-$747
+5%	$101.85 (1.3σ)	$-1,675	$-9,890	+$6,038	-$1,960
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.5σ)	$-7,750	$-9,489	+$6,438	-$8,035

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,927

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,204

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $97): -$9,641

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,364 (+$6,563 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,035, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

5 × $91

7 Aug

4.1%

65%hist 80%

73%hist 59%

+8pp

$1,500

$5,625

+$2,812

$11,891

Sell 5 × $91 4.1% OTM over spot $87.38 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $3.12 mid)

= $1,500 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,625/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $91)

65%

Breach risk

35%

POP (stays ≤ $94.12)

75%

EV / mo

+$1,476

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

73% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~3.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,202/mo

median; plan ~$1,497/mo after 68% keep · $5,620 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 73% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

57%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$249

Free roll-up

none

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$113 @ 91% POP

90% survival

Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $4.49–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,720 simulated challenges: the $91 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $93 (overshoots $2.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$96	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.92/sh	+$460 cycle +$1,960 [-$123…+$248] · 61% credit	74% surv 65%	-$9,309 NOT cap gain +$6,619
Max even-money escape in the band	~$99	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.14/sh	+$68 cycle +$1,568 [-$602…-$177] · 14% credit	77% surv 70%	-$8,368 NOT cap gain +$7,559
SS $114 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$91	10 Aug 2026	7d left	-$1.36/sh	-$682 cycle +$818 [-$1,477…-$965] · 1% credit	60% surv 52%	-$13,180 NOT cap gain +$2,747
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$113	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.40/sh	-$1,200 cycle +$300 [-$2,268…-$1,579]	91% surv 90%	-$2,174 NOT cap gain +$13,753
budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,200 (80% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$300 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $916/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$5,625/mo
vs 50% target ($2,810/mo)	+100%
vs normal income ($5,620/mo)	100% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,577/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $91 is $27 below CC-SS $117.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$11,891
… as % of IC ($14,500)	82.0%
… as % of ML ($47,000)	25.3%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (5 ct)	$-15,990

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $94.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $91)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $120.58 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $90.09	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $90-94.12	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $94.12	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$91.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,500	$-12,498	+$3,429	+$1,215
+2.5%	$93.27 (≤1σ, normal week)	$363	$-12,423	+$3,505	+$78
+5%	$95.55 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-775	$-12,348	+$3,580	-$1,060
SS (= V-bounce)	$114.00 (2.5σ)	$-10,000	$-11,739	+$4,188	-$10,285

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $117.78, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-15,927

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,204

− CC assignment net of premium (5 × $91): -$11,891

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,614 (+$4,313 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,329 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,285, the opportunity cost of earning $5,625/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on INTC are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (61 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 61 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.066 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,204 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,329

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$94	4d	3 Aug 2026	$0.89	5/5	$3,338	$3,289	81%	84%	+$1,146	-$11,446	78.9%	$-11,169 (vs do-nothing $-9,840)
$96	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.15	5/5	$2,875	$2,827	81%	83%	+$770	-$10,316	71.1%	$-10,039 (vs do-nothing $-8,710)
$97	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.50	5/5	$2,812	$2,764	80%	83%	+$896	-$9,641	66.5%	$-9,364 (vs do-nothing $-8,035)
$95	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.34	5/5	$3,350	$3,302	78%	82%	+$836	-$10,721	73.9%	$-10,444 (vs do-nothing $-9,115)
$96	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.69	5/5	$3,169	$3,121	78%	82%	+$931	-$10,046	69.3%	$-9,769 (vs do-nothing $-8,440)
$93	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.08	4/5	$3,240	$3,306	78%	82%	+$1,001	-$9,481	65.4%	$-9,525 (vs do-nothing $-8,196)
$95	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.92	4/5	$2,880	$2,946	77%	82%	+$1,130	-$8,345	57.6%	$-8,389 (vs do-nothing $-7,060)
$94	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.56	4/5	$3,120	$3,186	75%	80%	+$724	-$8,889	61.3%	$-8,933 (vs do-nothing $-7,604)
$94	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.17	4/5	$3,255	$3,321	74%	80%	+$1,185	-$8,645	59.6%	$-8,689 (vs do-nothing $-7,360)
$92	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.31	3/5	$2,948	$3,127	74%	79%	+$816	-$7,342	50.6%	$-7,707 (vs do-nothing $-6,378)
$93	6d	5 Aug 2026	$1.83	4/5	$3,660	$3,726	72%	78%	+$816	-$9,181	63.3%	$-9,225 (vs do-nothing $-7,896)
$95	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	5/5	$3,000	$2,952	72%	78%	+$710	-$9,891	68.2%	$-9,614 (vs do-nothing $-8,285)
$93	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.44	4/5	$3,660	$3,726	71%	78%	+$1,225	-$8,937	61.6%	$-8,981 (vs do-nothing $-7,652)

Show 48 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$92.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.61	3/5	$2,936	$3,116	70%	77%	+$959	-$6,802	46.9%	$-7,167 (vs do-nothing $-5,838)
$94	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	5/5	$3,300	$3,252	70%	77%	+$741	-$10,241	70.6%	$-9,964 (vs do-nothing $-8,635)
$91	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.58	3/5	$3,555	$3,735	70%	76%	+$867	-$7,561	52.1%	$-7,926 (vs do-nothing $-6,597)
$95	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.15	5/5	$2,830	$2,781	69%	76%	+$604	-$9,316	64.2%	$-9,039 (vs do-nothing $-7,710)
$92	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.10	3/5	$3,150	$3,330	69%	76%	+$629	-$7,105	49.0%	$-7,470 (vs do-nothing $-6,141)
$92	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.74	3/5	$3,082	$3,262	68%	76%	+$945	-$6,913	47.7%	$-7,278 (vs do-nothing $-5,949)
$94	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.45	5/5	$3,034	$2,986	68%	75%	+$610	-$9,666	66.7%	$-9,389 (vs do-nothing $-8,060)
$93	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.60	4/5	$2,880	$2,946	67%	75%	+$597	-$8,473	58.4%	$-8,517 (vs do-nothing $-7,188)
$91.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.89	3/5	$3,251	$3,431	67%	76%	+$943	-$7,018	48.4%	$-7,383 (vs do-nothing $-6,054)
$92.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.60	4/5	$2,880	$2,946	66%	74%	+$380	-$8,673	59.8%	$-8,717 (vs do-nothing $-7,388)
$91	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.46	3/5	$3,690	$3,870	66%	74%	+$723	-$7,297	50.3%	$-7,662 (vs do-nothing $-6,333)
$93	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.75	5/5	$3,239	$3,191	66%	74%	+$601	-$10,016	69.1%	$-9,739 (vs do-nothing $-8,410)
$91	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	3/5	$3,375	$3,555	65%	75%	+$886	-$7,135	49.2%	$-7,500 (vs do-nothing $-6,171)
$90	4d	3 Aug 2026	$1.91	2/5	$2,865	$3,159	65%	74%	+$625	-$5,174	35.7%	$-5,861 (vs do-nothing $-4,532)
$92	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.90	4/5	$3,120	$3,186	65%	74%	+$490	-$8,753	60.4%	$-8,797 (vs do-nothing $-7,468)
$92.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.95	5/5	$3,375	$3,327	65%	74%	+$624	-$10,166	70.1%	$-9,889 (vs do-nothing $-8,560)
$91.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.15	4/5	$3,320	$3,386	64%	74%	+$645	-$8,853	61.1%	$-8,897 (vs do-nothing $-7,568)
$92	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.10	5/5	$3,477	$3,429	64%	73%	+$610	-$10,341	71.3%	$-10,064 (vs do-nothing $-8,735)
$91.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.30	4/5	$2,891	$2,957	63%	73%	+$500	-$8,393	57.9%	$-8,437 (vs do-nothing $-7,108)
$91	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.35	4/5	$3,480	$3,546	63%	73%	+$663	-$8,973	61.9%	$-9,017 (vs do-nothing $-7,688)
$90	6d	5 Aug 2026	$2.73	3/5	$4,095	$4,275	62%	72%	+$619	-$7,516	51.8%	$-7,881 (vs do-nothing $-6,552)
$90	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.35	3/5	$3,769	$3,949	62%	73%	+$886	-$7,330	50.5%	$-7,695 (vs do-nothing $-6,366)
$91	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.45	4/5	$2,973	$3,039	62%	72%	+$482	-$8,533	58.8%	$-8,577 (vs do-nothing $-7,248)
$90	11d	10 Aug 2026	$2.62	4/5	$2,858	$2,924	61%	71%	$-585	-$10,065	69.4%	$-10,109 (vs do-nothing $-8,780)
$90	13d	12 Aug 2026	$3.15	4/5	$2,908	$2,974	60%	72%	$-474	-$9,853	68.0%	$-9,897 (vs do-nothing $-8,568)
$90	15d	14 Aug 2026	$4.80	3/5	$2,880	$3,060	60%	72%	+$541	-$6,895	47.5%	$-7,260 (vs do-nothing $-5,931)
$89	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.27	2/5	$3,405	$3,699	60%	71%	+$632	-$5,302	36.6%	$-5,989 (vs do-nothing $-4,660)
$90	22d	21 Aug 2026	$5.90	4/5	$3,218	$3,284	60%	71%	+$517	-$8,753	60.4%	$-8,797 (vs do-nothing $-7,468)
$89	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.05	2/5	$3,050	$3,344	59%	70%	+$350	-$5,146	35.5%	$-5,833 (vs do-nothing $-4,504)
$89	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.75	2/5	$2,812	$3,106	58%	71%	+$598	-$5,006	34.5%	$-5,693 (vs do-nothing $-4,364)
$89	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.15	3/5	$3,090	$3,270	58%	70%	+$508	-$7,090	48.9%	$-7,455 (vs do-nothing $-6,126)
$89	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.30	4/5	$3,436	$3,502	58%	70%	+$511	-$8,993	62.0%	$-9,037 (vs do-nothing $-7,708)
$88	22d	21 Aug 2026	$6.75	4/5	$3,682	$3,748	55%	69%	+$518	-$9,213	63.5%	$-9,257 (vs do-nothing $-7,928)
$88	15d	14 Aug 2026	$5.55	3/5	$3,330	$3,510	55%	69%	+$486	-$7,270	50.1%	$-7,635 (vs do-nothing $-6,306)
$88	4d	3 Aug 2026	$2.69	2/5	$4,035	$4,329	55%	69%	+$637	-$5,418	37.4%	$-6,105 (vs do-nothing $-4,776)
$88	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.20	2/5	$3,150	$3,444	55%	69%	+$612	-$5,116	35.3%	$-5,803 (vs do-nothing $-4,474)
$88	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.50	2/5	$3,500	$3,794	55%	68%	+$370	-$5,256	36.3%	$-5,943 (vs do-nothing $-4,614)
$87.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.00	3/5	$2,864	$3,044	54%	69%	+$397	-$6,985	48.2%	$-7,350 (vs do-nothing $-6,021)
$87	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.20	3/5	$2,945	$3,125	53%	68%	+$382	-$7,075	48.8%	$-7,440 (vs do-nothing $-6,111)
$87	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.00	3/5	$3,600	$3,780	52%	68%	+$475	-$7,435	51.3%	$-7,800 (vs do-nothing $-6,471)
$87	8d	7 Aug 2026	$4.65	2/5	$3,488	$3,781	51%	68%	+$595	-$5,226	36.0%	$-5,913 (vs do-nothing $-4,584)
$86	22d	21 Aug 2026	$7.70	3/5	$3,150	$3,330	51%	67%	+$385	-$7,225	49.8%	$-7,590 (vs do-nothing $-6,261)
$87	6d	5 Aug 2026	$3.95	2/5	$3,950	$4,244	51%	66%	+$343	-$5,366	37.0%	$-6,053 (vs do-nothing $-4,724)
$87	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.05	2/5	$4,575	$4,869	50%	66%	+$456	-$5,546	38.3%	$-6,233 (vs do-nothing $-4,904)
$86	15d	14 Aug 2026	$6.50	3/5	$3,900	$4,080	50%	67%	+$476	-$7,585	52.3%	$-7,950 (vs do-nothing $-6,621)
$86	8d	7 Aug 2026	$5.15	2/5	$3,862	$4,156	48%	65%	+$359	-$5,326	36.7%	$-6,013 (vs do-nothing $-4,684)
$86	6d	5 Aug 2026	$4.45	2/5	$4,450	$4,744	47%	65%	+$317	-$5,466	37.7%	$-6,153 (vs do-nothing $-4,824)
$86	4d	3 Aug 2026	$3.60	2/5	$5,400	$5,694	44%	64%	+$463	-$5,636	38.9%	$-6,323 (vs do-nothing $-4,994)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39