5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $118.13 (banked floor $114.18) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $6,107/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $37/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-10,948 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $110C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.30 | $648 | 2026-07-27 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 5 × $106 | 77% | $3,429 | $287 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 1 × $121 | 7 Aug | 7d | 24.5% | 95%hist 100% | 10%hist 1% | +0pp | $25 | $107 | -$3,321 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 1 × $121 24.5% OTM over spot $97.20 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.29 mid) = $25 credit for the 7d cycle → $107/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $121) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $121.29) 96% EV / mo +$47 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 74% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $626/mo median; plan ~$426/mo after 68% keep · $954 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.3-1.9], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$368 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $135 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 1 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.56/sh now → $3.93 mid-life (likely $3.04–$5.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 136 simulated challenges: the $121 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $124 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $121 is at/above CC-SS $118.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $121.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $121)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,948 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,125 − CC assignment net of premium (1 × $121): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $114): -$1,456 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,279 (+$9,668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,643 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$364, the opportunity cost of earning $107/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $115 | 7 Aug | 7d | 18.3% | 91%hist 100% | 19%hist 5% | +0pp | $255 | $1,093 | -$2,336 | $1,310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $115 18.3% OTM over spot $97.20 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.56 mid) = $255 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,093/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $115) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $115.56) 92% EV / mo +$339 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 75% whole by 9mo vs 75% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $749/mo median; plan ~$509/mo after 68% keep · $1,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.3-2.0], measured ONLY among the 75% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,613 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $131 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.11–$5.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.23/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 379 simulated challenges: the $115 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $118 (overshoots $3.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $115 is $3 below CC-SS $118.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $115.56 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $115)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,948 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $115): -$1,310 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,133 (+$9,814 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,643 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$510, the opportunity cost of earning $1,093/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $110 | 7 Aug | 7d | 13.2% | 85%hist 99% | 32%hist 18% | +2pp | $490 | $2,100 | -$1,329 | $3,575 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $110 13.2% OTM over spot $97.20 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $490 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $111.02) 86% EV / mo +$486 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 74% whole by 9mo vs 72% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,408/mo median; plan ~$957/mo after 68% keep · $2,167 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 74% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,297 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $130 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life (likely $3.57–$6.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 704 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $113 (overshoots $3.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $8 below CC-SS $118.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $111.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,948 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$3,575 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,398 (+$7,549 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,643 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,755, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $106 | 7 Aug | 7d | 9.1% | 77%hist 96% | 48%hist 28% | +5pp | $800 | $3,429 | — | $5,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $106 9.1% OTM over spot $97.20 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.68 mid) = $800 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,429/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $107.68) 81% EV / mo +$534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 78% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,261/mo median; plan ~$1,538/mo after 68% keep · $2,266 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.8], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$922 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $130 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.87/sh now → $3.44 mid-life (likely $3.70–$5.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,049 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $109 (overshoots $2.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $12 below CC-SS $118.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.60 collected) or spot ≥ $107.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,948 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $106): -$5,265 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,088 (+$5,859 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,643 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,445, the opportunity cost of earning $3,429/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $100 | 7 Aug | 7d | 2.9% | 61%hist 80% | 81%hist 80% | +7pp | $1,550 | $6,643 | +$3,214 | $7,515 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $100 2.9% OTM over spot $97.20 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $3.23 mid) = $1,550 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,643/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $100) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $103.22) 70% EV / mo +$186 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 83% whole by 9mo vs 76% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,345/mo median; plan ~$2,275/mo after 68% keep · $3,128 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.7 mo [0.3-1.6], measured ONLY among the 83% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$74 Free roll-up none Safest escape (by 14 Aug 2026) $119 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $4.29–$6.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,893 simulated challenges: the $100 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $103 (overshoots $3.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $100 is $18 below CC-SS $118.13: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.78/sh (~25% of the $3.10 collected) or spot ≥ $103.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $100)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $116.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.06 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $118.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-10,948 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $100): -$7,515 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,338 (+$3,609 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,643 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,695, the opportunity cost of earning $6,643/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (7 expiries scanned, 68 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.063 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,125 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,643
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $105 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.13 | 5/5 | $3,390 | $3,353 | 80% | 83% | +$886 | -$6,000 | 41.4% | $-5,823 (vs do-nothing $-4,180) |
| $106 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.60 | 5/5 | $3,429 | $3,392 | 77% | 81% | +$534 | -$5,265 | 36.3% | $-5,088 (vs do-nothing $-3,445) |
| $104 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 4/5 | $3,168 | $3,278 | 77% | 81% | +$722 | -$5,124 | 35.3% | $-5,311 (vs do-nothing $-3,668) |
| $105 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.73 | 5/5 | $3,707 | $3,670 | 75% | 79% | +$375 | -$5,700 | 39.3% | $-5,523 (vs do-nothing $-3,880) |
| $103 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 4/5 | $3,672 | $3,782 | 74% | 79% | +$708 | -$5,440 | 37.5% | $-5,627 (vs do-nothing $-3,984) |
| $104 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 4/5 | $3,394 | $3,504 | 72% | 77% | +$334 | -$4,860 | 33.5% | $-5,047 (vs do-nothing $-3,404) |
| $106 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.90 | 5/5 | $3,107 | $3,070 | 72% | 77% | +$413 | -$4,615 | 31.8% | $-4,438 (vs do-nothing $-2,795) |
| $104 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 5/5 | $3,075 | $3,038 | 71% | 77% | $-131 | -$6,040 | 41.7% | $-5,863 (vs do-nothing $-4,220) |
| $105 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 5/5 | $3,375 | $3,338 | 70% | 76% | +$410 | -$4,990 | 34.4% | $-4,813 (vs do-nothing $-3,170) |
| $102 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $1.78 | 3/5 | $3,204 | $3,461 | 70% | 76% | +$528 | -$4,305 | 29.7% | $-4,856 (vs do-nothing $-3,213) |
| $103 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.22 | 4/5 | $3,806 | $3,916 | 70% | 76% | +$302 | -$5,164 | 35.6% | $-5,351 (vs do-nothing $-3,708) |
| $103 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $2.36 | 5/5 | $3,540 | $3,503 | 69% | 76% | $-85 | -$6,385 | 44.0% | $-6,208 (vs do-nothing $-4,565) |
| $105 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 5/5 | $3,071 | $3,034 | 69% | 75% | +$410 | -$4,415 | 30.4% | $-4,238 (vs do-nothing $-2,595) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $3,643 | $3,606 | 68% | 75% | +$383 | -$5,365 | 37.0% | $-5,188 (vs do-nothing $-3,545) |
| $103 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 5/5 | $3,062 | $3,025 | 68% | 75% | $-449 | -$6,340 | 43.7% | $-6,163 (vs do-nothing $-4,520) |
| $102 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.45 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,407 | 67% | 74% | +$150 | -$4,104 | 28.3% | $-4,655 (vs do-nothing $-3,012) |
| $101 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $2.05 | 3/5 | $3,690 | $3,947 | 67% | 74% | +$493 | -$4,524 | 31.2% | $-5,075 (vs do-nothing $-3,432) |
| $104 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.60 | 5/5 | $3,286 | $3,249 | 67% | 74% | +$407 | -$4,765 | 32.9% | $-4,588 (vs do-nothing $-2,945) |
| $103 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 4/5 | $3,171 | $3,281 | 66% | 74% | +$308 | -$4,572 | 31.5% | $-4,759 (vs do-nothing $-3,116) |
| $102 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 5/5 | $3,225 | $3,188 | 66% | 74% | $-860 | -$6,990 | 48.2% | $-6,813 (vs do-nothing $-5,170) |
| $102 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 5/5 | $3,275 | $3,238 | 65% | 73% | $-632 | -$6,755 | 46.6% | $-6,578 (vs do-nothing $-4,935) |
| $103 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.90 | 5/5 | $3,500 | $3,463 | 65% | 73% | +$389 | -$5,115 | 35.3% | $-4,938 (vs do-nothing $-3,295) |
| $102 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $3,429 | $3,539 | 64% | 73% | +$288 | -$4,852 | 33.5% | $-5,039 (vs do-nothing $-3,396) |
| $103 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 5/5 | $3,214 | $3,177 | 64% | 73% | +$331 | -$4,565 | 31.5% | $-4,388 (vs do-nothing $-2,745) |
| $101 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.74 | 3/5 | $3,523 | $3,780 | 64% | 72% | +$108 | -$4,317 | 29.8% | $-4,868 (vs do-nothing $-3,225) |
| $101 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $2.89 | 4/5 | $3,468 | $3,578 | 63% | 73% | $-204 | -$5,696 | 39.3% | $-5,883 (vs do-nothing $-4,240) |
| $102 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.25 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,713 | 63% | 72% | +$391 | -$5,440 | 37.5% | $-5,263 (vs do-nothing $-3,620) |
| $100 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $2.34 | 3/5 | $4,212 | $4,469 | 63% | 72% | +$419 | -$4,737 | 32.7% | $-5,288 (vs do-nothing $-3,645) |
| $101 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $2.99 | 5/5 | $3,738 | $3,700 | 63% | 72% | $-600 | -$7,070 | 48.8% | $-6,893 (vs do-nothing $-5,250) |
| $102 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.40 | 5/5 | $3,429 | $3,392 | 63% | 72% | +$353 | -$4,865 | 33.6% | $-4,688 (vs do-nothing $-3,045) |
| $101 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.35 | 4/5 | $3,729 | $3,839 | 62% | 71% | +$289 | -$5,112 | 35.3% | $-5,299 (vs do-nothing $-3,656) |
| $101 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.60 | 4/5 | $3,200 | $3,310 | 61% | 71% | +$301 | -$4,612 | 31.8% | $-4,799 (vs do-nothing $-3,156) |
| $100 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 3/5 | $3,986 | $4,243 | 61% | 70% | +$112 | -$4,509 | 31.1% | $-5,060 (vs do-nothing $-3,417) |
| $101 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 5/5 | $3,482 | $3,445 | 61% | 71% | +$205 | -$5,315 | 36.7% | $-5,138 (vs do-nothing $-3,495) |
| $100 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $3,960 | $4,070 | 61% | 70% | $-153 | -$5,932 | 40.9% | $-6,119 (vs do-nothing $-4,476) |
| $100 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 4/5 | $3,600 | $3,710 | 60% | 71% | $-243 | -$5,812 | 40.1% | $-5,999 (vs do-nothing $-4,356) |
| $100 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 4/5 | $4,029 | $4,139 | 60% | 70% | +$268 | -$5,372 | 37.0% | $-5,559 (vs do-nothing $-3,916) |
| $100 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.00 | 4/5 | $3,429 | $3,539 | 60% | 70% | +$306 | -$4,852 | 33.5% | $-5,039 (vs do-nothing $-3,396) |
| $100 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 5/5 | $3,750 | $3,713 | 59% | 70% | +$260 | -$5,565 | 38.4% | $-5,388 (vs do-nothing $-3,745) |
| $99 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 2/5 | $3,216 | $3,620 | 59% | 69% | +$42 | -$3,290 | 22.7% | $-4,205 (vs do-nothing $-2,562) |
| $99 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 3/5 | $4,436 | $4,693 | 58% | 69% | +$56 | -$4,704 | 32.4% | $-5,255 (vs do-nothing $-3,612) |
| $99 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 3/5 | $3,150 | $3,407 | 58% | 69% | $-294 | -$4,689 | 32.3% | $-5,240 (vs do-nothing $-3,597) |
| $99 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $4,000 | $4,110 | 58% | 70% | $-247 | -$6,052 | 41.7% | $-6,239 (vs do-nothing $-4,596) |
| $99 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.50 | 4/5 | $3,214 | $3,324 | 58% | 70% | +$243 | -$4,652 | 32.1% | $-4,839 (vs do-nothing $-3,196) |
| $99 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.05 | 3/5 | $3,246 | $3,503 | 58% | 69% | +$166 | -$4,224 | 29.1% | $-4,775 (vs do-nothing $-3,132) |
| $99 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 4/5 | $3,629 | $3,739 | 58% | 69% | +$268 | -$5,112 | 35.3% | $-5,299 (vs do-nothing $-3,656) |
| $98 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $7.95 | 4/5 | $3,407 | $3,517 | 56% | 69% | +$248 | -$4,872 | 33.6% | $-5,059 (vs do-nothing $-3,416) |
| $98 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.75 | 4/5 | $3,857 | $3,967 | 56% | 68% | +$244 | -$5,352 | 36.9% | $-5,539 (vs do-nothing $-3,896) |
| $98 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.45 | 3/5 | $3,504 | $3,761 | 55% | 68% | +$146 | -$4,404 | 30.4% | $-4,955 (vs do-nothing $-3,312) |
| $98 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 2/5 | $3,600 | $4,004 | 55% | 67% | $-83 | -$3,426 | 23.6% | $-4,341 (vs do-nothing $-2,698) |
| $98 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $4.35 | 3/5 | $3,262 | $3,519 | 55% | 68% | $-249 | -$4,734 | 32.6% | $-5,285 (vs do-nothing $-3,642) |
| $98 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 3/5 | $3,555 | $3,812 | 55% | 67% | $-278 | -$4,854 | 33.5% | $-5,405 (vs do-nothing $-3,762) |
| $98 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 2/5 | $3,386 | $3,790 | 55% | 67% | +$96 | -$3,236 | 22.3% | $-4,151 (vs do-nothing $-2,508) |
| $97.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $6.95 | 4/5 | $3,971 | $4,081 | 55% | 68% | +$228 | -$5,472 | 37.7% | $-5,659 (vs do-nothing $-4,016) |
| $97 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.35 | 4/5 | $3,579 | $3,689 | 54% | 68% | +$222 | -$5,112 | 35.3% | $-5,299 (vs do-nothing $-3,656) |
| $97 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.15 | 3/5 | $3,064 | $3,321 | 54% | 67% | +$155 | -$4,194 | 28.9% | $-4,745 (vs do-nothing $-3,102) |
| $97 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $5.90 | 3/5 | $3,793 | $4,050 | 53% | 67% | +$138 | -$4,569 | 31.5% | $-5,120 (vs do-nothing $-3,477) |
| $96 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $8.80 | 4/5 | $3,771 | $3,881 | 53% | 67% | +$209 | -$5,332 | 36.8% | $-5,519 (vs do-nothing $-3,876) |
| $97 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 3/5 | $3,562 | $3,819 | 53% | 67% | $-298 | -$4,914 | 33.9% | $-5,465 (vs do-nothing $-3,822) |
| $97 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $4.35 | 3/5 | $3,915 | $4,172 | 52% | 66% | $-337 | -$5,034 | 34.7% | $-5,585 (vs do-nothing $-3,942) |
| $97 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.25 | 2/5 | $3,643 | $4,047 | 52% | 65% | $-50 | -$3,376 | 23.3% | $-4,291 (vs do-nothing $-2,648) |
| $96 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $3,257 | $3,514 | 52% | 66% | +$138 | -$4,359 | 30.1% | $-4,910 (vs do-nothing $-3,267) |
| $97 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 2/5 | $4,020 | $4,424 | 51% | 65% | $-230 | -$3,556 | 24.5% | $-4,471 (vs do-nothing $-2,828) |
| $96 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $6.35 | 3/5 | $4,082 | $4,339 | 50% | 66% | +$112 | -$4,734 | 32.6% | $-5,285 (vs do-nothing $-3,642) |
| $96 | 12d | 12 Aug 2026 | $5.20 | 3/5 | $3,900 | $4,157 | 50% | 65% | $-335 | -$5,079 | 35.0% | $-5,630 (vs do-nothing $-3,987) |
| $96 | 10d | 10 Aug 2026 | $5.00 | 3/5 | $4,500 | $4,757 | 49% | 65% | $-202 | -$5,139 | 35.4% | $-5,690 (vs do-nothing $-4,047) |
| $96 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.70 | 2/5 | $4,029 | $4,433 | 49% | 64% | $-100 | -$3,486 | 24.0% | $-4,401 (vs do-nothing $-2,758) |
| $96 | 5d | 5 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 2/5 | $4,500 | $4,904 | 47% | 63% | $-375 | -$3,676 | 25.4% | $-4,591 (vs do-nothing $-2,948) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.