5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $115.28 (banked floor $104.07) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,344/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $82/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-11,065 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.48 | $240 | 2026-10-21 | 2026-10-22 | $0.04 | $220 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 5x $101C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.73 | $365 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-21 | $0.15 | $290 | U13190865 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 5x $105C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | $275 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-15 | $0.00 | $275 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 4x $123C 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | $553 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-09 | $0.38 | $401 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $123C 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | $138 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-09 | $0.38 | $100 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $80 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $80 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.52 | $82 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.52 | $82 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $80 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.65 | $116 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.09 | $1,044 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-02 | $2.09 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $130C 16 Oct 2026 | $2.73 | $1,367 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-23 | $2.73 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | $1,492 | 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-18 | $2.98 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $103C 11 Sep 2026 | $0.74 | $372 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-09 | $0.74 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| ASSIGNED | 5x $96C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.52 | $259 | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $259 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $130C 18 Sep 2026 | $2.91 | $1,456 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-09-01 | $2.91 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $106C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | $415 | 2026-08-11 | 2026-08-14 | $0.83 | $0 | U13190865 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | $353 | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $353 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 5x $110C 31 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | $648 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $648 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $162 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-27 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $324 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-54 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $162 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-27 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $162 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-27 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.10 | $190 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $130C 15 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | $496 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-14 | $0.99 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $140C 10 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | $1,301 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-07 | $0.08 | $1,261 | U13190865 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡ | 30 Oct 2026 · 2d | 5 × $112 | 99+% | $3,525 | $2,347 |
| NEXT FRIDAY ⚡ | 6 Nov 2026 · 9d | 5 × $106 | 80% | $2,833 | $441 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $114 | 30 Oct | 2d | 20.2% | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | -2pp | $175 | $2,625 | -$900 | $467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 20.2% OTM over spot $94.83 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.37 mid) = $175 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $114.37) 99+% EV / mo +$2,620 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 86% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $245/mo median; plan ~$166/mo after 68% keep · $157 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.1], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,645 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $123 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.15/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.75–$7.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 160 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $119 (overshoots $4.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $1 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $114.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-160 (+$10,905 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-375, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $114 | 30 Oct | 2d | 20.2% | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | -2pp | $175 | $2,625 | -$900 | $467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 20.2% OTM over spot $94.83 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.37 mid) = $175 credit for the 2d cycle → $2,625/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $114.37) 99+% EV / mo +$2,620 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 86% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $245/mo median; plan ~$166/mo after 68% keep · $157 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.2-1.1], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,645 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $123 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.15/sh now → $3.64 mid-life (likely $3.75–$7.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 160 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $119 (overshoots $4.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $1 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $114.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$467 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-160 (+$10,905 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-375, the opportunity cost of earning $2,625/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $112 | 30 Oct | 2d | 18.1% | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | -3pp | $235 | $3,525 | — | $1,407 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $112 18.1% OTM over spot $94.83 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.48 mid) = $235 credit for the 2d cycle → $3,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $112) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $112.48) 99+% EV / mo +$3,509 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 77% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $433/mo median; plan ~$294/mo after 68% keep · $250 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.2-1.0], measured ONLY among the 77% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,553 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $122 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.06/sh now → $3.58 mid-life (likely $3.72–$7.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 194 simulated challenges: the $112 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $117 (overshoots $4.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $112 is $3 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.47 collected) or spot ≥ $112.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $112)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $112): -$1,407 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,100 (+$9,965 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,315, the opportunity cost of earning $3,525/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $110 | 30 Oct | 2d | 16.0% | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 23% | +2pp | $315 | $4,725 | +$1,200 | $2,327 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $110 16.0% OTM over spot $94.83 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.65 mid) = $315 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,725/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $110.65) 91% EV / mo +$2,148 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,462/mo median; plan ~$2,354/mo after 68% keep · $911 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.2 mo [0.1-0.4], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,441 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $120 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.51 mid-life (likely $3.88–$7.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.63/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 262 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $114 (overshoots $4.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $5 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.63 collected) or spot ≥ $110.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$2,327 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,020 (+$9,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,235, the opportunity cost of earning $4,725/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $109 | 30 Oct | 2d | 14.9% | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | +4pp | $365 | $5,475 | +$1,950 | $2,777 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $109 14.9% OTM over spot $94.83 30 Oct 2026 (2d, $0.76 mid) = $365 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,475/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $109) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $109.75) 90% EV / mo +$2,353 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $4,008/mo median; plan ~$2,726/mo after 68% keep · $1,082 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.2 mo [0.1-0.5], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,375 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $119 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.92/sh now → $3.48 mid-life (likely $3.80–$7.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 323 simulated challenges: the $109 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $114 (overshoots $4.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $109 is $6 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.73 collected) or spot ≥ $109.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $109)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $109): -$2,777 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,470 (+$8,595 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,685, the opportunity cost of earning $5,475/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $118 | 6 Nov | 9d | 24.4% | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | -1pp | $240 | $800 | -$2,033 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $118 24.4% OTM over spot $94.83 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.52 mid) = $240 credit for the 9d cycle → $800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $118) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $118.52) 94% EV / mo +$397 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 87% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $336/mo median; plan ~$228/mo after 68% keep · $213 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.1-1.0], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,084 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $123 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.57/sh now → $4.65 mid-life (likely $3.82–$6.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 211 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $121 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $118 is at/above CC-SS $115.28: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $118.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $118)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $118): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $307 (+$11,372 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$92, the opportunity cost of earning $800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $114 | 6 Nov | 9d | 20.2% | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 13% | -1pp | $365 | $1,217 | -$1,617 | $277 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $114 20.2% OTM over spot $94.83 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $0.77 mid) = $365 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,217/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $114) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $114.77) 91% EV / mo +$535 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 86% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $552/mo median; plan ~$375/mo after 68% keep · $578 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.1-1.1], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,881 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $120 @ 75% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $3.50–$6.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.73/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 397 simulated challenges: the $114 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $117 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $114 is $1 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.73 collected) or spot ≥ $114.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $114)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $114): -$277 Total Position P&L @ SS: $30 (+$11,095 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-185, the opportunity cost of earning $1,217/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $110 | 6 Nov | 9d | 16.0% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 23% | -1pp | $555 | $1,850 | -$983 | $2,087 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $110 16.0% OTM over spot $94.83 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $1.16 mid) = $555 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $110) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $111.16) 88% EV / mo +$686 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 86% whole by 9mo vs 87% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $915/mo median; plan ~$622/mo after 68% keep · $950 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.4 mo [0.1-1.1], measured ONLY among the 86% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,612 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $117 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.33 mid-life (likely $3.81–$6.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 559 simulated challenges: the $110 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $113 (overshoots $2.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $110 is $5 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $111.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $110)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $110): -$2,087 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,780 (+$9,285 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,995, the opportunity cost of earning $1,850/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $106 | 6 Nov | 9d | 11.8% | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 40% | +1pp | $850 | $2,833 | — | $3,792 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $106 11.8% OTM over spot $94.83 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $1.75 mid) = $850 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,833/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $106) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $107.75) 83% EV / mo +$871 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,014/mo median; plan ~$1,369/mo after 68% keep · $1,535 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.3 mo [0.2-0.9], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,238 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $116 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.90/sh now → $4.18 mid-life (likely $4.33–$6.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 884 simulated challenges: the $106 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $109 (overshoots $2.79). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $106 is $9 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.42/sh (~25% of the $1.70 collected) or spot ≥ $107.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $106)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $106): -$3,792 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,485 (+$7,580 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,700, the opportunity cost of earning $2,833/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $99 | 6 Nov | 9d | 4.4% | 65%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | +6pp | $1,725 | $5,750 | +$2,917 | $6,417 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $99 4.4% OTM over spot $94.83 6 Nov 2026 (9d, $3.53 mid) = $1,725 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $99) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $102.53) 74% EV / mo +$1,124 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 90% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $7,522/mo median; plan ~$5,115/mo after 68% keep · $1,717 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.2 mo [0.1-0.6], measured ONLY among the 90% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$225 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $119 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.51/sh now → $3.90 mid-life (likely $4.95–$6.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,781 simulated challenges: the $99 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $102 (overshoots $2.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $99 is $16 below CC-SS $115.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.86/sh (~25% of the $3.45 collected) or spot ≥ $102.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $99)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $118.70 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.11 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-11,065 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$11,372 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $99): -$6,417 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,110 (+$4,955 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $215 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,325, the opportunity cost of earning $5,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 56 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.112 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,372 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $215
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $112 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.47 | 5/5 | $235 | $3,525 | $3,443 | 99+%hist 95% | 1%hist 4% | 100% | +$3,509 | -$1,407 | 9.7% | 0.3mo | $-1,100 (vs do-nothing $-1,315) |
| $113 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.41 | 5/5 | $205 | $3,075 | $2,993 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 13% | 94% | +$1,590 | -$937 | 6.5% | 0.2mo | $-630 (vs do-nothing $-845) |
| $111 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | 5/5 | $275 | $4,125 | $4,043 | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$1,904 | -$1,867 | 12.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,560 (vs do-nothing $-1,775) |
| $110 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.63 | 5/5 | $315 | $4,725 | $4,643 | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 23% | 91% | +$2,148 | -$2,327 | 16.0% | 0.4mo | $-2,020 (vs do-nothing $-2,235) |
| $109 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.73 | 5/5 | $365 | $5,475 | $5,393 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | 90% | +$2,353 | -$2,777 | 19.2% | 0.5mo | $-2,470 (vs do-nothing $-2,685) |
| $102 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.80 | 5/5 | $900 | $13,500 | $13,418 | 88%hist 86% | 25%hist 23% | 92% | +$11,710 | -$5,742 | 39.6% | 1.1mo | $-5,435 (vs do-nothing $-5,650) |
| $108 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.83 | 5/5 | $415 | $6,225 | $6,143 | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$2,491 | -$3,227 | 22.3% | 0.6mo | $-2,920 (vs do-nothing $-3,135) |
| $107 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | 5/5 | $475 | $7,125 | $7,043 | 86%hist 86% | 30%hist 23% | 87% | +$2,627 | -$3,667 | 25.3% | 0.7mo | $-3,360 (vs do-nothing $-3,575) |
| $106 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.08 | 5/5 | $540 | $8,100 | $8,018 | 84%hist 86% | 33%hist 30% | 86% | +$2,860 | -$4,102 | 28.3% | 0.8mo | $-3,795 (vs do-nothing $-4,010) |
| $105 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.24 | 5/5 | $620 | $9,300 | $9,218 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | 84% | +$3,065 | -$4,522 | 31.2% | 0.8mo | $-4,215 (vs do-nothing $-4,430) |
| $106 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.70 | 5/5 | $850 | $2,833 | $2,751 | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 40% | 83% | +$871 | -$3,792 | 26.2% | 0.7mo | $-3,485 (vs do-nothing $-3,700) |
| $104 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.40 | 5/5 | $700 | $10,500 | $10,418 | 80%hist 83% | 42%hist 40% | 83% | +$3,210 | -$4,942 | 34.1% | 0.9mo | $-4,635 (vs do-nothing $-4,850) |
| $105 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.89 | 5/5 | $945 | $3,150 | $3,068 | 78%hist 83% | 45%hist 40% | 82% | +$921 | -$4,197 | 28.9% | 0.8mo | $-3,890 (vs do-nothing $-4,105) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $103 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $1.59 | 5/5 | $795 | $11,925 | $11,843 | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 40% | 81% | +$3,376 | -$5,347 | 36.9% | 1.0mo | $-5,040 (vs do-nothing $-5,255) |
| $104 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.10 | 5/5 | $1,050 | $3,500 | $3,418 | 77%hist 83% | 49%hist 40% | 81% | +$972 | -$4,592 | 31.7% | 0.9mo | $-4,285 (vs do-nothing $-4,500) |
| $103 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.32 | 5/5 | $1,160 | $3,867 | $3,784 | 74%hist 83% | 53%hist 44% | 79% | +$1,004 | -$4,982 | 34.4% | 0.9mo | $-4,675 (vs do-nothing $-4,890) |
| $103 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.94 | 5/5 | $1,470 | $2,756 | $2,674 | 73%hist 83% | 58%hist 44% | 78% | +$707 | -$4,672 | 32.2% | 0.9mo | $-4,365 (vs do-nothing $-4,580) |
| $101 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.04 | 5/5 | $1,020 | $15,300 | $15,218 | 72%hist 83% | 57%hist 44% | 78% | +$3,589 | -$6,122 | 42.2% | 1.1mo | $-5,815 (vs do-nothing $-6,030) |
| $102 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.56 | 5/5 | $1,280 | $4,267 | $4,184 | 72%hist 83% | 58%hist 44% | 78% | +$1,030 | -$5,362 | 37.0% | 1.0mo | $-5,055 (vs do-nothing $-5,270) |
| $98 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.91 | 5/5 | $1,455 | $21,825 | $21,743 | 70%hist 83% | 60%hist 54% | 84% | +$15,016 | -$7,187 | 49.6% | 1.3mo | $-6,880 (vs do-nothing $-7,095) |
| $101 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.84 | 5/5 | $1,420 | $4,733 | $4,651 | 70%hist 66% | 63%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,080 | -$5,722 | 39.5% | 1.1mo | $-5,415 (vs do-nothing $-5,630) |
| $100 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.32 | 5/5 | $1,160 | $17,400 | $17,318 | 70%hist 66% | 63%hist 54% | 76% | +$3,822 | -$6,482 | 44.7% | 1.2mo | $-6,175 (vs do-nothing $-6,390) |
| $102 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.20 | 5/5 | $1,600 | $3,000 | $2,918 | 69%hist 66% | 66%hist 54% | 75% | +$31 | -$5,042 | 34.8% | 0.9mo | $-4,735 (vs do-nothing $-4,950) |
| $100 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $1,550 | $5,167 | $5,084 | 67%hist 66% | 68%hist 54% | 75% | +$1,052 | -$6,092 | 42.0% | 1.1mo | $-5,785 (vs do-nothing $-6,000) |
| $101 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.15 | 5/5 | $2,075 | $2,707 | $2,624 | 67%hist 66% | 70%hist 54% | 75% | +$586 | -$5,067 | 34.9% | 0.9mo | $-4,760 (vs do-nothing $-4,975) |
| $101 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.45 | 5/5 | $1,725 | $3,234 | $3,152 | 67%hist 66% | 71%hist 68% | 73% | $-19 | -$5,417 | 37.4% | 1.0mo | $-5,110 (vs do-nothing $-5,325) |
| $99 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $2.59 | 5/5 | $1,295 | $19,425 | $19,343 | 67%hist 66% | 70%hist 54% | 74% | +$3,744 | -$6,847 | 47.2% | 1.3mo | $-6,540 (vs do-nothing $-6,755) |
| $100 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $2,250 | $2,935 | $2,852 | 65%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | 74% | +$610 | -$5,392 | 37.2% | 1.0mo | $-5,085 (vs do-nothing $-5,300) |
| $100 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.80 | 5/5 | $1,900 | $3,562 | $3,480 | 65%hist 66% | 75%hist 68% | 72% | +$3 | -$5,742 | 39.6% | 1.1mo | $-5,435 (vs do-nothing $-5,650) |
| $99 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.45 | 5/5 | $1,725 | $5,750 | $5,668 | 65%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | 74% | +$1,124 | -$6,417 | 44.3% | 1.2mo | $-6,110 (vs do-nothing $-6,325) |
| $99 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $2,400 | $3,130 | $3,048 | 63%hist 66% | 79%hist 68% | 73% | +$587 | -$5,742 | 39.6% | 1.1mo | $-5,435 (vs do-nothing $-5,650) |
| $99 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.10 | 5/5 | $2,050 | $3,844 | $3,761 | 63%hist 66% | 80%hist 68% | 71% | $-43 | -$6,092 | 42.0% | 1.1mo | $-5,785 (vs do-nothing $-6,000) |
| $98 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.75 | 5/5 | $1,875 | $6,250 | $6,168 | 62%hist 66% | 80%hist 68% | 72% | +$1,062 | -$6,767 | 46.7% | 1.3mo | $-6,460 (vs do-nothing $-6,675) |
| $98 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $2,575 | $3,359 | $3,276 | 61%hist 66% | 84%hist 79% | 72% | +$579 | -$6,067 | 41.8% | 1.1mo | $-5,760 (vs do-nothing $-5,975) |
| $98 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.45 | 5/5 | $2,225 | $4,172 | $4,090 | 61%hist 66% | 84%hist 79% | 70% | $-65 | -$6,417 | 44.3% | 1.2mo | $-6,110 (vs do-nothing $-6,325) |
| $97 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $1,625 | $24,375 | $24,293 | 60%hist 66% | 83%hist 79% | 71% | +$3,714 | -$7,517 | 51.8% | 1.4mo | $-7,210 (vs do-nothing $-7,425) |
| $97.50 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.35 | 5/5 | $2,675 | $3,489 | $3,407 | 60%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | 71% | +$586 | -$6,217 | 42.9% | 1.2mo | $-5,910 (vs do-nothing $-6,125) |
| $97 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.15 | 5/5 | $2,075 | $6,917 | $6,834 | 59%hist 70% | 86%hist 79% | 71% | +$1,110 | -$7,067 | 48.7% | 1.3mo | $-6,760 (vs do-nothing $-6,975) |
| $97 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.55 | 5/5 | $2,775 | $3,620 | $3,537 | 59%hist 70% | 89%hist 79% | 71% | +$588 | -$6,367 | 43.9% | 1.2mo | $-6,060 (vs do-nothing $-6,275) |
| $97 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.85 | 5/5 | $2,425 | $4,547 | $4,465 | 59%hist 70% | 89%hist 79% | 69% | $-64 | -$6,717 | 46.3% | 1.3mo | $-6,410 (vs do-nothing $-6,625) |
| $96 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $3.65 | 5/5 | $1,825 | $27,375 | $27,293 | 57%hist 70% | 91%hist 89% | 69% | +$3,800 | -$7,817 | 53.9% | 1.5mo | $-7,510 (vs do-nothing $-7,725) |
| $96 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.25 | 5/5 | $2,625 | $4,922 | $4,840 | 56%hist 70% | 94%hist 89% | 68% | $-87 | -$7,017 | 48.4% | 1.3mo | $-6,710 (vs do-nothing $-6,925) |
| $96 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.55 | 5/5 | $2,275 | $7,583 | $7,501 | 56%hist 70% | 92%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,102 | -$7,367 | 50.8% | 1.4mo | $-7,060 (vs do-nothing $-7,275) |
| $96 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.00 | 5/5 | $3,000 | $3,913 | $3,831 | 56%hist 70% | 94%hist 89% | 69% | +$611 | -$6,642 | 45.8% | 1.2mo | $-6,335 (vs do-nothing $-6,550) |
| $95 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.70 | 5/5 | $2,850 | $5,344 | $5,261 | 54%hist 70% | 99%hist 89% | 67% | $-88 | -$7,292 | 50.3% | 1.4mo | $-6,985 (vs do-nothing $-7,200) |
| $95 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.50 | 5/5 | $3,250 | $4,239 | $4,157 | 54%hist 70% | 99%hist 89% | 68% | +$650 | -$6,892 | 47.5% | 1.3mo | $-6,585 (vs do-nothing $-6,800) |
| $95 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.00 | 5/5 | $2,500 | $8,333 | $8,251 | 53%hist 70% | 99%hist 89% | 68% | +$1,117 | -$7,642 | 52.7% | 1.4mo | $-7,335 (vs do-nothing $-7,550) |
| $95 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $4.10 | 5/5 | $2,050 | $30,750 | $30,668 | 53%hist 70% | 99%hist 89% | 67% | +$3,953 | -$8,092 | 55.8% | 1.5mo | $-7,785 (vs do-nothing $-8,000) |
| $94 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $3,075 | $5,766 | $5,683 | 52%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 65% | $-115 | -$7,567 | 52.2% | 1.4mo | $-7,260 (vs do-nothing $-7,475) |
| $94 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.90 | 5/5 | $3,450 | $4,500 | $4,418 | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$605 | -$7,192 | 49.6% | 1.3mo | $-6,885 (vs do-nothing $-7,100) |
| $94 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.50 | 5/5 | $2,750 | $9,167 | $9,084 | 50%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 66% | +$1,154 | -$7,892 | 54.4% | 1.5mo | $-7,585 (vs do-nothing $-7,800) |
| $93 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.65 | 5/5 | $3,325 | $6,234 | $6,152 | 49% | 100%hist 89% | 64% | $-119 | -$7,817 | 53.9% | 1.5mo | $-7,510 (vs do-nothing $-7,725) |
| $94 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $2,250 | $33,750 | $33,668 | 49% | 100%hist 89% | 66% | +$3,408 | -$8,392 | 57.9% | 1.6mo | $-8,085 (vs do-nothing $-8,300) |
| $93 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $7.35 | 5/5 | $3,675 | $4,793 | $4,711 | 49% | 100%hist 89% | 66% | +$574 | -$7,467 | 51.5% | 1.4mo | $-7,160 (vs do-nothing $-7,375) |
| $93 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.95 | 5/5 | $2,975 | $9,917 | $9,834 | 47% | 100%hist 89% | 65% | +$1,045 | -$8,167 | 56.3% | 1.5mo | $-7,860 (vs do-nothing $-8,075) |
| $93 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $5.00 | 5/5 | $2,500 | $37,500 | $37,418 | 45% | 100%hist 89% | 64% | +$3,278 | -$8,642 | 59.6% | 1.6mo | $-8,335 (vs do-nothing $-8,550) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $114 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.35 | 5/5 | $175 | $2,625 | $2,543 | 99+%hist 95% | 0%hist 4% | 100% | +$2,620 | -$467 | 3.2% | 0.1mo | $-160 (vs do-nothing $-375) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $118 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.18 | 5/5 | $90 | $1,350 | $1,268 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$785 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $397 (vs do-nothing +$182) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $117 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.21 | 5/5 | $105 | $1,575 | $1,493 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$889 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $412 (vs do-nothing +$197) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $116 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.25 | 5/5 | $125 | $1,875 | $1,793 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$1,042 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $432 (vs do-nothing +$217) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 2d | 30 Oct 2026 | $0.31 | 5/5 | $155 | $2,325 | $2,243 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 13% | 95% | +$1,314 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $320 (vs do-nothing +$105) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $118 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.48 | 5/5 | $240 | $800 | $718 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$397 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $547 (vs do-nothing +$332) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $117 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.53 | 5/5 | $265 | $883 | $801 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 13% | 93% | +$426 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $572 (vs do-nothing +$357) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $116 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.59 | 5/5 | $295 | $983 | $901 | 92%hist 95% | 16%hist 13% | 93% | +$456 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $602 (vs do-nothing +$387) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $118 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.71 | 5/5 | $355 | $666 | $583 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 92% | +$273 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $662 (vs do-nothing +$447) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.65 | 5/5 | $325 | $1,083 | $1,001 | 92%hist 95% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$479 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $490 (vs do-nothing +$275) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $117 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.85 | 5/5 | $425 | $797 | $715 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 13% | 92% | +$357 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $732 (vs do-nothing +$517) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $114 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.73 | 5/5 | $365 | $1,217 | $1,134 | 91%hist 95% | 19%hist 13% | 91% | +$535 | -$277 | 1.9% | 0.1mo | $30 (vs do-nothing $-185) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $116 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.93 | 5/5 | $465 | $872 | $790 | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 23% | 91% | +$379 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $772 (vs do-nothing +$557) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $113 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.81 | 5/5 | $405 | $1,350 | $1,268 | 90%hist 86% | 21%hist 23% | 91% | +$570 | -$737 | 5.1% | 0.1mo | $-430 (vs do-nothing $-645) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.02 | 5/5 | $510 | $956 | $874 | 89%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | 90% | +$405 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $675 (vs do-nothing +$460) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $112 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.90 | 5/5 | $450 | $1,500 | $1,418 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | 90% | +$609 | -$1,192 | 8.2% | 0.2mo | $-885 (vs do-nothing $-1,100) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $114 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.10 | 5/5 | $550 | $1,031 | $949 | 88%hist 86% | 24%hist 23% | 90% | +$414 | -$92 | 0.6% | 0.0mo | $215 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $111 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.00 | 5/5 | $500 | $1,667 | $1,584 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$648 | -$1,642 | 11.3% | 0.3mo | $-1,335 (vs do-nothing $-1,550) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $113 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.21 | 5/5 | $605 | $1,134 | $1,052 | 87%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$444 | -$537 | 3.7% | 0.1mo | $-230 (vs do-nothing $-445) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.43 | 5/5 | $715 | $933 | $850 | 87%hist 86% | 27%hist 23% | 89% | +$381 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $880 (vs do-nothing +$665) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $110 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.11 | 5/5 | $555 | $1,850 | $1,768 | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 23% | 88% | +$686 | -$2,087 | 14.4% | 0.4mo | $-1,780 (vs do-nothing $-1,995) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $112 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.32 | 5/5 | $660 | $1,238 | $1,155 | 86%hist 86% | 29%hist 23% | 88% | +$466 | -$982 | 6.8% | 0.2mo | $-675 (vs do-nothing $-890) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $111 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.44 | 5/5 | $720 | $1,350 | $1,268 | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | 87% | +$488 | -$1,422 | 9.8% | 0.3mo | $-1,115 (vs do-nothing $-1,330) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $109 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.24 | 5/5 | $620 | $2,067 | $1,984 | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | 87% | +$738 | -$2,522 | 17.4% | 0.5mo | $-2,215 (vs do-nothing $-2,430) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $110 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.57 | 5/5 | $785 | $1,472 | $1,390 | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | 86% | +$508 | -$1,857 | 12.8% | 0.3mo | $-1,550 (vs do-nothing $-1,765) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $108 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.38 | 5/5 | $690 | $2,300 | $2,218 | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | 86% | +$823 | -$2,952 | 20.4% | 0.6mo | $-2,645 (vs do-nothing $-2,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $109 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.73 | 5/5 | $865 | $1,622 | $1,540 | 83%hist 86% | 36%hist 30% | 85% | +$546 | -$2,277 | 15.7% | 0.4mo | $-1,970 (vs do-nothing $-2,185) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $110 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.10 | 5/5 | $1,050 | $1,370 | $1,287 | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | 85% | +$476 | -$1,592 | 11.0% | 0.3mo | $-1,285 (vs do-nothing $-1,500) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $107 | 9d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.53 | 5/5 | $765 | $2,550 | $2,468 | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | 85% | +$825 | -$3,377 | 23.3% | 0.6mo | $-3,070 (vs do-nothing $-3,285) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $108 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.89 | 5/5 | $945 | $1,772 | $1,690 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | 84% | +$571 | -$2,697 | 18.6% | 0.5mo | $-2,390 (vs do-nothing $-2,605) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $107 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.06 | 5/5 | $1,030 | $1,931 | $1,849 | 80%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | 83% | +$592 | -$3,112 | 21.5% | 0.6mo | $-2,805 (vs do-nothing $-3,020) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $106 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.26 | 5/5 | $1,130 | $2,119 | $2,036 | 78%hist 83% | 46%hist 40% | 82% | +$626 | -$3,512 | 24.2% | 0.7mo | $-3,205 (vs do-nothing $-3,420) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $105 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.46 | 5/5 | $1,230 | $2,306 | $2,224 | 76%hist 83% | 50%hist 40% | 81% | +$644 | -$3,912 | 27.0% | 0.7mo | $-3,605 (vs do-nothing $-3,820) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $105 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.05 | 5/5 | $1,525 | $1,989 | $1,907 | 75%hist 83% | 54%hist 44% | 80% | +$536 | -$3,617 | 24.9% | 0.7mo | $-3,310 (vs do-nothing $-3,525) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $104 | 16d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.69 | 5/5 | $1,345 | $2,522 | $2,440 | 74%hist 83% | 54%hist 44% | 79% | +$655 | -$4,297 | 29.6% | 0.8mo | $-3,990 (vs do-nothing $-4,205) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $104 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $1,650 | $2,152 | $2,070 | 73%hist 83% | 57%hist 44% | 79% | +$553 | -$3,992 | 27.5% | 0.7mo | $-3,685 (vs do-nothing $-3,900) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $103 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $1,775 | $2,315 | $2,233 | 71%hist 83% | 61%hist 54% | 77% | +$556 | -$4,367 | 30.1% | 0.8mo | $-4,060 (vs do-nothing $-4,275) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $102 | 23d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.85 | 5/5 | $1,925 | $2,511 | $2,429 | 69%hist 66% | 65%hist 54% | 76% | +$578 | -$4,717 | 32.5% | 0.9mo | $-4,410 (vs do-nothing $-4,625) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.