5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $114.00 | CC-SS: $115.91 (banked floor $104.70) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $47,000 | (ND $29.00 + SW $65) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,270/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $15/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-13,322 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Status | Leg | Credit/sh | Credit | Opened | Closed | Close/sh | Banked | Account | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLOSED | 5x $100C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.48 | $240 | 2026-10-21 | 2026-10-22 | $0.04 | $220 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 5x $101C 23 Oct 2026 | $0.73 | $365 | 2026-10-20 | 2026-10-21 | $0.15 | $290 | U13190865 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 5x $105C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.55 | $275 | 2026-10-13 | 2026-10-15 | $0.00 | $275 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $114C 14 Oct 2026 | $0.95 | $95 | 2026-10-09 | 2026-10-13 | $0.03 | $92 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 4x $123C 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | $553 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-09 | $0.38 | $401 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $123C 16 Oct 2026 | $1.38 | $138 | 2026-10-07 | 2026-10-09 | $0.38 | $100 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $80 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $80 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.52 | $82 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.52 | $82 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $133C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.34 | $234 | 2026-10-06 | 2026-10-07 | $1.54 | $80 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.65 | $116 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $138C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.81 | $281 | 2026-10-02 | 2026-10-06 | $1.64 | $117 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $160C 23 Oct 2026 | $2.09 | $1,044 | 2026-09-23 | 2026-10-02 | $2.09 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $130C 16 Oct 2026 | $2.73 | $1,367 | 2026-09-18 | 2026-09-23 | $2.73 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $116C 2 Oct 2026 | $2.98 | $1,492 | 2026-09-09 | 2026-09-18 | $2.98 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $103C 11 Sep 2026 | $0.74 | $372 | 2026-09-08 | 2026-09-09 | $0.74 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| ASSIGNED | 5x $96C 4 Sep 2026 | $0.52 | $259 | 2026-09-01 | 2026-09-08 | $0.00 | $259 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $130C 18 Sep 2026 | $2.91 | $1,456 | 2026-08-14 | 2026-09-01 | $2.91 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $106C 14 Aug 2026 | $0.83 | $415 | 2026-08-11 | 2026-08-14 | $0.83 | $0 | U13190865 | execution |
| EXPIRED | 5x $108C 7 Aug 2026 | $0.71 | $353 | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-10 | $0.00 | $353 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| EXPIRED | 5x $110C 31 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | $648 | 2026-07-27 | 2026-08-03 | $0.00 | $648 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 1x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $162 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-27 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 2x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $324 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-54 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $162 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-27 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $116C 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | $162 | 2026-07-18 | 2026-07-23 | $1.89 | $-27 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.10 | $190 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| CLOSED | 1x $121C 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | $300 | 2026-07-14 | 2026-07-18 | $1.11 | $189 | U13190865 | execution |
| UNKNOWN | 5x $130C 15 Jul 2026 | $0.99 | $496 | 2026-07-10 | 2026-07-14 | $0.99 | $0 | U13190865 | snapshot |
| CLOSED | 5x $140C 10 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | $1,301 | 2026-07-02 | 2026-07-07 | $0.08 | $1,261 | U13190865 | seed |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 ⚡ | 6 Nov 2026 · 8d | 5 × $102 | 81% | $2,812 | $568 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $118 | 6 Nov | 8d | 29.2% | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | -1pp | $105 | $394 | -$2,419 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $118 29.2% OTM over spot $91.33 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.23 mid) = $105 credit for the 8d cycle → $394/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $118) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $118.23) 97% EV / mo +$225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 81% whole by 9mo vs 82% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $247/mo median; plan ~$168/mo after 68% keep · $293 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.6 mo [0.2-1.5], measured ONLY among the 81% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,127 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $122 @ 72% POP 62% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life (likely $2.99–$6.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 74 simulated challenges: the $118 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $121 (overshoots $3.12). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $118 is at/above CC-SS $115.91: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $118.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $118)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $115.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,322 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,763 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $118): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $441 (+$13,763 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-203 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$644, the opportunity cost of earning $394/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $108 | 6 Nov | 8d | 18.3% | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 23% | +1pp | $360 | $1,350 | -$1,462 | $3,594 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $108 18.3% OTM over spot $91.33 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $0.75 mid) = $360 credit for the 8d cycle → $1,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $108) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $108.75) 91% EV / mo +$599 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 84% whole by 9mo vs 83% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $940/mo median; plan ~$639/mo after 68% keep · $993 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.3], measured ONLY among the 84% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,683 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $114 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.78/sh now → $4.09 mid-life (likely $3.40–$5.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 405 simulated challenges: the $108 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $111 (overshoots $2.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $108 is $8 below CC-SS $115.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $108.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $108)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $115.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,322 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,763 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $108): -$3,594 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,153 (+$10,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,950, the opportunity cost of earning $1,350/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $105 | 6 Nov | 8d | 15.0% | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 23% | +3pp | $540 | $2,025 | -$787 | $4,914 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $105 15.0% OTM over spot $91.33 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $1.10 mid) = $540 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $105) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $106.09) 88% EV / mo +$845 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 82% whole by 9mo vs 79% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,532/mo median; plan ~$1,041/mo after 68% keep · $1,519 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.4], measured ONLY among the 82% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,447 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $113 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $3.61–$6.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $105 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $108 (overshoots $2.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $105 is $11 below CC-SS $115.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.08 collected) or spot ≥ $106.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $105)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $115.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,322 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,763 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $105): -$4,914 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,473 (+$8,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,270, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $102 | 6 Nov | 8d | 11.7% | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | +4pp | $750 | $2,812 | — | $6,204 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $102 11.7% OTM over spot $91.33 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $1.54 mid) = $750 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $102) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $103.53) 84% EV / mo +$977 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 80% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,468/mo median; plan ~$1,678/mo after 68% keep · $1,545 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.3], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,180 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $112 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $3.88–$6.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 820 simulated challenges: the $102 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $105 (overshoots $2.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $102 is $14 below CC-SS $115.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.50 collected) or spot ≥ $103.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $102)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $115.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,322 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,763 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $102): -$6,204 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,763 (+$7,560 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,560, the opportunity cost of earning $2,812/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $96 | 6 Nov | 8d | 5.1% | 67%hist 66% | 69%hist 54% | +8pp | $1,465 | $5,494 | +$2,681 | $8,489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $96 5.1% OTM over spot $91.33 6 Nov 2026 (8d, $2.99 mid) = $1,465 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,494/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $96) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $98.99) 75% EV / mo +$1,279 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 85% whole by 9mo vs 77% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $3,883/mo median; plan ~$2,641/mo after 68% keep · $2,911 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.5 mo [0.2-1.5], measured ONLY among the 85% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$351 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 20 Nov 2026) $115 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.14/sh now → $3.63 mid-life (likely $4.47–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,669 simulated challenges: the $96 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $99 (overshoots $2.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $96 is $20 below CC-SS $115.91: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.73/sh (~25% of the $2.93 collected) or spot ≥ $98.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $96)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $115.25 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.12 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $115.91, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-13,322 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$13,763 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $96): -$8,489 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,048 (+$5,275 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-203 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,845, the opportunity cost of earning $5,494/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.120 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,763 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-203
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $102 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.50 | 5/5 | $750 | $2,812 | $2,798 | 81%hist 86% | 39%hist 30% | 84% | +$977 | -$6,204 | 42.8% | 1.2mo | $-5,763 (vs do-nothing $-5,560) |
| $101 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.72 | 5/5 | $860 | $3,225 | $3,210 | 79%hist 83% | 43%hist 40% | 83% | +$1,105 | -$6,594 | 45.5% | 1.3mo | $-6,153 (vs do-nothing $-5,950) |
| $100 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.90 | 5/5 | $950 | $3,562 | $3,548 | 77%hist 83% | 47%hist 40% | 81% | +$1,119 | -$7,004 | 48.3% | 1.3mo | $-6,563 (vs do-nothing $-6,360) |
| $99 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.11 | 5/5 | $1,055 | $3,956 | $3,941 | 75%hist 83% | 52%hist 44% | 80% | +$1,146 | -$7,399 | 51.0% | 1.4mo | $-6,958 (vs do-nothing $-6,755) |
| $99 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.69 | 5/5 | $1,345 | $2,690 | $2,675 | 74%hist 83% | 53%hist 44% | 80% | +$1,090 | -$7,109 | 49.0% | 1.3mo | $-6,668 (vs do-nothing $-6,465) |
| $98 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.39 | 5/5 | $1,195 | $4,481 | $4,466 | 73%hist 83% | 57%hist 44% | 78% | +$1,256 | -$7,759 | 53.5% | 1.5mo | $-7,318 (vs do-nothing $-7,115) |
| $98 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.92 | 5/5 | $1,460 | $2,920 | $2,905 | 72%hist 83% | 59%hist 44% | 79% | +$1,080 | -$7,494 | 51.7% | 1.4mo | $-7,053 (vs do-nothing $-6,850) |
| $97 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.65 | 5/5 | $1,325 | $4,969 | $4,954 | 70%hist 66% | 63%hist 54% | 77% | +$1,277 | -$8,129 | 56.1% | 1.5mo | $-7,688 (vs do-nothing $-7,485) |
| $97 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.20 | 5/5 | $1,600 | $3,200 | $3,185 | 69%hist 66% | 64%hist 54% | 77% | +$1,093 | -$7,854 | 54.2% | 1.5mo | $-7,413 (vs do-nothing $-7,210) |
| $96 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $2.93 | 5/5 | $1,465 | $5,494 | $5,479 | 67%hist 66% | 69%hist 54% | 75% | +$1,279 | -$8,489 | 58.5% | 1.6mo | $-8,048 (vs do-nothing $-7,845) |
| $96 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $1,775 | $3,550 | $3,535 | 67%hist 66% | 70%hist 54% | 76% | +$1,145 | -$8,179 | 56.4% | 1.6mo | $-7,738 (vs do-nothing $-7,535) |
| $96 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.20 | 5/5 | $2,100 | $2,864 | $2,849 | 65%hist 66% | 74%hist 68% | 74% | +$641 | -$7,854 | 54.2% | 1.5mo | $-7,413 (vs do-nothing $-7,210) |
| $95 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $1,650 | $6,188 | $6,172 | 64%hist 66% | 75%hist 68% | 74% | +$1,389 | -$8,804 | 60.7% | 1.7mo | $-8,363 (vs do-nothing $-8,160) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $3.90 | 5/5 | $1,950 | $3,900 | $3,885 | 64%hist 66% | 76%hist 68% | 74% | +$1,165 | -$8,504 | 58.6% | 1.6mo | $-8,063 (vs do-nothing $-7,860) |
| $95 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.60 | 5/5 | $2,300 | $3,136 | $3,121 | 63%hist 66% | 80%hist 68% | 73% | +$681 | -$8,154 | 56.2% | 1.5mo | $-7,713 (vs do-nothing $-7,510) |
| $94 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $3.65 | 5/5 | $1,825 | $6,844 | $6,829 | 61%hist 66% | 81%hist 79% | 72% | +$1,398 | -$9,129 | 63.0% | 1.7mo | $-8,688 (vs do-nothing $-8,485) |
| $94 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.25 | 5/5 | $2,125 | $4,250 | $4,235 | 61%hist 66% | 82%hist 79% | 73% | +$1,153 | -$8,829 | 60.9% | 1.7mo | $-8,388 (vs do-nothing $-8,185) |
| $94 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $2,475 | $3,375 | $3,360 | 60%hist 66% | 85%hist 79% | 72% | +$666 | -$8,479 | 58.5% | 1.6mo | $-8,038 (vs do-nothing $-7,835) |
| $93 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.05 | 5/5 | $2,025 | $7,594 | $7,579 | 58%hist 70% | 88%hist 79% | 70% | +$1,432 | -$9,429 | 65.0% | 1.8mo | $-8,988 (vs do-nothing $-8,785) |
| $93 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $2,375 | $4,750 | $4,735 | 58%hist 70% | 89%hist 79% | 72% | +$1,255 | -$9,079 | 62.6% | 1.7mo | $-8,638 (vs do-nothing $-8,435) |
| $93 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.35 | 5/5 | $2,675 | $3,648 | $3,633 | 58%hist 70% | 90%hist 89% | 70% | +$666 | -$8,779 | 60.5% | 1.7mo | $-8,338 (vs do-nothing $-8,135) |
| $92.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.55 | 5/5 | $2,775 | $3,784 | $3,769 | 56%hist 70% | 93%hist 89% | 70% | +$658 | -$8,929 | 61.6% | 1.7mo | $-8,488 (vs do-nothing $-8,285) |
| $92 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $5.75 | 5/5 | $2,875 | $3,920 | $3,905 | 55%hist 70% | 96%hist 89% | 69% | +$646 | -$9,079 | 62.6% | 1.7mo | $-8,638 (vs do-nothing $-8,435) |
| $92 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.10 | 5/5 | $2,550 | $5,100 | $5,085 | 55%hist 70% | 95%hist 89% | 70% | +$1,172 | -$9,404 | 64.9% | 1.8mo | $-8,963 (vs do-nothing $-8,760) |
| $92 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.50 | 5/5 | $2,250 | $8,438 | $8,422 | 55%hist 70% | 95%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,488 | -$9,704 | 66.9% | 1.8mo | $-9,263 (vs do-nothing $-9,060) |
| $91 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.25 | 5/5 | $3,125 | $4,261 | $4,246 | 52%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 68% | +$672 | -$9,329 | 64.3% | 1.8mo | $-8,888 (vs do-nothing $-8,685) |
| $91 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $5.60 | 5/5 | $2,800 | $5,600 | $5,585 | 52%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 69% | +$1,201 | -$9,654 | 66.6% | 1.8mo | $-9,213 (vs do-nothing $-9,010) |
| $91 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $4.95 | 5/5 | $2,475 | $9,281 | $9,266 | 51%hist 70% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$1,470 | -$9,979 | 68.8% | 1.9mo | $-9,538 (vs do-nothing $-9,335) |
| $90 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $6.70 | 5/5 | $3,350 | $4,568 | $4,553 | 50% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$643 | -$9,604 | 66.2% | 1.8mo | $-9,163 (vs do-nothing $-8,960) |
| $90 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $6.10 | 5/5 | $3,050 | $6,100 | $6,085 | 48% | 100%hist 89% | 67% | +$1,193 | -$9,904 | 68.3% | 1.9mo | $-9,463 (vs do-nothing $-9,260) |
| $90 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $5.40 | 5/5 | $2,700 | $10,125 | $10,110 | 48% | 100%hist 89% | 66% | +$1,376 | -$10,254 | 70.7% | 1.9mo | $-9,813 (vs do-nothing $-9,610) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Per cycle | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | Touch | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Recover | Total P&L @ SS | Why not eligible |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $118 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.21 | 5/5 | $105 | $394 | $379 | 97%hist 95% | 7%hist 4% | 97% | +$225 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $546 (vs do-nothing +$749) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $117 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.26 | 5/5 | $130 | $488 | $473 | 96%hist 95% | 8%hist 4% | 96% | +$291 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $571 (vs do-nothing +$774) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $116 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.28 | 5/5 | $140 | $525 | $510 | 96%hist 95% | 9%hist 4% | 96% | +$293 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $581 (vs do-nothing +$784) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.32 | 5/5 | $160 | $600 | $585 | 95%hist 95% | 10%hist 4% | 95% | +$331 | -$294 | 2.0% | 0.1mo | $147 (vs do-nothing +$350) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $114 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.35 | 5/5 | $175 | $656 | $641 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$357 | -$779 | 5.4% | 0.1mo | $-338 (vs do-nothing $-135) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $118 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.44 | 5/5 | $220 | $440 | $425 | 95%hist 95% | 11%hist 13% | 95% | +$230 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $661 (vs do-nothing +$864) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $113 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.41 | 5/5 | $205 | $769 | $754 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 13% | 95% | +$417 | -$1,249 | 8.6% | 0.2mo | $-808 (vs do-nothing $-605) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $117 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.48 | 5/5 | $240 | $480 | $465 | 94%hist 95% | 12%hist 13% | 95% | +$247 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $681 (vs do-nothing +$884) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $116 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.54 | 5/5 | $270 | $540 | $525 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$281 | -$0 | 0.0% | 0.0mo | $711 (vs do-nothing +$914) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $112 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.45 | 5/5 | $225 | $844 | $829 | 94%hist 95% | 13%hist 13% | 94% | +$435 | -$1,729 | 11.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,288 (vs do-nothing $-1,085) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.58 | 5/5 | $290 | $580 | $565 | 93%hist 95% | 14%hist 13% | 94% | +$292 | -$164 | 1.1% | 0.0mo | $277 (vs do-nothing +$480) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $111 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.53 | 5/5 | $265 | $994 | $979 | 93%hist 95% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$518 | -$2,189 | 15.1% | 0.4mo | $-1,748 (vs do-nothing $-1,545) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $114 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.62 | 5/5 | $310 | $620 | $605 | 93%hist 95% | 15%hist 13% | 93% | +$298 | -$644 | 4.4% | 0.1mo | $-203 (vs do-nothing +$0) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $110 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.57 | 5/5 | $285 | $1,069 | $1,054 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 93% | +$515 | -$2,669 | 18.4% | 0.5mo | $-2,228 (vs do-nothing $-2,025) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $113 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.69 | 5/5 | $345 | $690 | $675 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 93% | +$330 | -$1,109 | 7.6% | 0.2mo | $-668 (vs do-nothing $-465) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $115 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $0.84 | 5/5 | $420 | $573 | $558 | 92%hist 95% | 17%hist 13% | 92% | +$280 | -$34 | 0.2% | 0.0mo | $407 (vs do-nothing +$610) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $112 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.74 | 5/5 | $370 | $740 | $725 | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$337 | -$1,584 | 10.9% | 0.3mo | $-1,143 (vs do-nothing $-940) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $109 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.64 | 5/5 | $320 | $1,200 | $1,185 | 91%hist 95% | 18%hist 13% | 92% | +$555 | -$3,134 | 21.6% | 0.6mo | $-2,693 (vs do-nothing $-2,490) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $111 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.84 | 5/5 | $420 | $840 | $825 | 90%hist 95% | 20%hist 13% | 91% | +$388 | -$2,034 | 14.0% | 0.4mo | $-1,593 (vs do-nothing $-1,390) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $108 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.72 | 5/5 | $360 | $1,350 | $1,335 | 90%hist 95% | 21%hist 23% | 91% | +$599 | -$3,594 | 24.8% | 0.7mo | $-3,153 (vs do-nothing $-2,950) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $110 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $0.90 | 5/5 | $450 | $900 | $885 | 90%hist 86% | 22%hist 23% | 90% | +$391 | -$2,504 | 17.3% | 0.5mo | $-2,063 (vs do-nothing $-1,860) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $107 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.82 | 5/5 | $410 | $1,538 | $1,522 | 89%hist 86% | 23%hist 23% | 90% | +$664 | -$4,044 | 27.9% | 0.8mo | $-3,603 (vs do-nothing $-3,400) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $109 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.00 | 5/5 | $500 | $1,000 | $985 | 89%hist 86% | 24%hist 23% | 90% | +$427 | -$2,954 | 20.4% | 0.6mo | $-2,513 (vs do-nothing $-2,310) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $110 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.27 | 5/5 | $635 | $866 | $851 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$371 | -$2,319 | 16.0% | 0.4mo | $-1,878 (vs do-nothing $-1,675) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $106 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $0.91 | 5/5 | $455 | $1,706 | $1,691 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$690 | -$4,499 | 31.0% | 0.9mo | $-4,058 (vs do-nothing $-3,855) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $108 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.08 | 5/5 | $540 | $1,080 | $1,065 | 88%hist 86% | 26%hist 23% | 89% | +$434 | -$3,414 | 23.5% | 0.6mo | $-2,973 (vs do-nothing $-2,770) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $107 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.22 | 5/5 | $610 | $1,220 | $1,205 | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 23% | 88% | +$491 | -$3,844 | 26.5% | 0.7mo | $-3,403 (vs do-nothing $-3,200) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $105 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.08 | 5/5 | $540 | $2,025 | $2,010 | 86%hist 86% | 28%hist 23% | 88% | +$845 | -$4,914 | 33.9% | 0.9mo | $-4,473 (vs do-nothing $-4,270) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $106 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.34 | 5/5 | $670 | $1,340 | $1,325 | 85%hist 86% | 31%hist 30% | 87% | +$517 | -$4,284 | 29.5% | 0.8mo | $-3,843 (vs do-nothing $-3,640) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $104 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.17 | 5/5 | $585 | $2,194 | $2,179 | 85%hist 86% | 32%hist 30% | 87% | +$824 | -$5,369 | 37.0% | 1.0mo | $-4,928 (vs do-nothing $-4,725) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $105 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.49 | 5/5 | $745 | $1,490 | $1,475 | 84%hist 86% | 34%hist 30% | 86% | +$559 | -$4,709 | 32.5% | 0.9mo | $-4,268 (vs do-nothing $-4,065) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $103 | 8d | 6 Nov 2026 | $1.34 | 5/5 | $670 | $2,513 | $2,498 | 83%hist 86% | 35%hist 30% | 85% | +$926 | -$5,784 | 39.9% | 1.1mo | $-5,343 (vs do-nothing $-5,140) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $104 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.65 | 5/5 | $825 | $1,650 | $1,635 | 82%hist 86% | 37%hist 30% | 85% | +$597 | -$5,129 | 35.4% | 1.0mo | $-4,688 (vs do-nothing $-4,485) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $105 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $1.99 | 5/5 | $995 | $1,357 | $1,342 | 82%hist 86% | 38%hist 30% | 85% | +$505 | -$4,459 | 30.7% | 0.8mo | $-4,018 (vs do-nothing $-3,815) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $103 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $1.81 | 5/5 | $905 | $1,810 | $1,795 | 81%hist 86% | 40%hist 40% | 84% | +$618 | -$5,549 | 38.3% | 1.1mo | $-5,108 (vs do-nothing $-4,905) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $104 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.12 | 5/5 | $1,060 | $1,445 | $1,430 | 80%hist 86% | 41%hist 40% | 84% | +$495 | -$4,894 | 33.7% | 0.9mo | $-4,453 (vs do-nothing $-4,250) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $102 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.00 | 5/5 | $1,000 | $2,000 | $1,985 | 79%hist 83% | 44%hist 40% | 83% | +$652 | -$5,954 | 41.1% | 1.1mo | $-5,513 (vs do-nothing $-5,310) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $103 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.33 | 5/5 | $1,165 | $1,589 | $1,574 | 79%hist 83% | 45%hist 40% | 82% | +$529 | -$5,289 | 36.5% | 1.0mo | $-4,848 (vs do-nothing $-4,645) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $101 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.20 | 5/5 | $1,100 | $2,200 | $2,185 | 77%hist 83% | 48%hist 40% | 81% | +$676 | -$6,354 | 43.8% | 1.2mo | $-5,913 (vs do-nothing $-5,710) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $102 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.55 | 5/5 | $1,275 | $1,739 | $1,724 | 77%hist 83% | 48%hist 40% | 81% | +$557 | -$5,679 | 39.2% | 1.1mo | $-5,238 (vs do-nothing $-5,035) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $100 | 15d | 13 Nov 2026 | $2.45 | 5/5 | $1,225 | $2,450 | $2,435 | 77%hist 83% | 48%hist 40% | 82% | +$1,064 | -$6,729 | 46.4% | 1.3mo | $-6,288 (vs do-nothing $-6,085) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $101 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $2.76 | 5/5 | $1,380 | $1,882 | $1,867 | 75%hist 83% | 52%hist 44% | 80% | +$565 | -$6,074 | 41.9% | 1.2mo | $-5,633 (vs do-nothing $-5,430) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $100 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $1,500 | $2,045 | $2,030 | 73%hist 83% | 56%hist 44% | 79% | +$580 | -$6,454 | 44.5% | 1.2mo | $-6,013 (vs do-nothing $-5,810) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $99 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $1,625 | $2,216 | $2,201 | 71%hist 83% | 60%hist 54% | 78% | +$586 | -$6,829 | 47.1% | 1.3mo | $-6,388 (vs do-nothing $-6,185) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $98 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.55 | 5/5 | $1,775 | $2,420 | $2,405 | 69%hist 66% | 65%hist 54% | 77% | +$611 | -$7,179 | 49.5% | 1.4mo | $-6,738 (vs do-nothing $-6,535) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $97.50 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.70 | 5/5 | $1,850 | $2,523 | $2,508 | 68%hist 66% | 67%hist 54% | 76% | +$616 | -$7,354 | 50.7% | 1.4mo | $-6,913 (vs do-nothing $-6,710) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
| $97 | 22d | 20 Nov 2026 | $3.85 | 5/5 | $1,925 | $2,625 | $2,610 | 67%hist 66% | 70%hist 54% | 75% | +$618 | -$7,529 | 51.9% | 1.4mo | $-7,088 (vs do-nothing $-6,885) | 50% income floor unreachable even selling every contract |
Per cycle = bid x 100 x contracts, the cash this expiry pays. Touch = P(strike trades before expiry), with the graded record's hist pill. Recover = months of this income to close the hole to CC-SS. Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.