FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1299 @ $41.67

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $55.15 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1299 @ $41.67 UNDERWATER $2.33 (5.3% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $55.15 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$14,471/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$4,931/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-24,080	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,235/mo

HEDGE COVER
$4,931/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,471/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $55.15 (probe: $55C 17d) still earns $2,965/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-4,886

Hole (after banked)

$28,966

was $24,080 · -20% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 46 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.99 (+58%) · daily UBB $52.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $55.15 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $56 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $56)

87%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$1,200

Income / mo

$2,118

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$56	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,774 cycle +$2,974 [+$1,026…+$2,690] · 99% credit	68% surv 57%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$57	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.30/sh	+$608 cycle +$1,808 [-$285…+$1,434] · 63% credit	69% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$57	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.30/sh	+$608 cycle +$1,808 [-$285…+$1,434] · 63% credit	69% surv 59%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (35 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$24,271 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-17,077

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.44	17/20	$7,480	$4,817	85%	87%	+$2,427	-$13,114	41.0%	$-15,513 (vs do-nothing +$1,564)
$46.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.45	17/20	$7,650	$4,987	83%	85%	+$1,471	-$13,947	43.6%	$-16,346 (vs do-nothing +$731)
$46	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.57	13/20	$7,410	$7,771	80%	83%	+$1,664	-$11,159	34.9%	$-17,012 (vs do-nothing +$65)
$45.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.66	11/20	$7,260	$9,133	78%	81%	+$1,383	-$9,893	30.9%	$-17,473 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$48	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.33	19/20	$7,581	$3,406	77%	81%	+$869	-$11,065	34.6%	$-11,738 (vs do-nothing +$5,339)
$45	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.77	10/20	$7,700	$10,329	75%	79%	+$1,284	-$9,384	29.3%	$-17,827 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$47	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.30	19/20	$7,410	$3,235	74%	78%	$-686	-$13,022	40.7%	$-13,695 (vs do-nothing +$3,382)
$48	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.11	20/20	$7,447	$2,516	74%	78%	+$506	-$10,088	31.5%	$-9,897 (vs do-nothing +$7,180)
$44.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.88	9/20	$7,920	$11,305	72%	77%	+$1,031	-$8,796	27.5%	$-18,103 (vs do-nothing $-1,026)
$47	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.38	18/20	$7,560	$4,141	71%	77%	+$410	-$10,393	32.5%	$-11,929 (vs do-nothing +$5,148)
$46	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.65	15/20	$7,425	$6,274	71%	76%	$-236	-$11,256	35.2%	$-15,382 (vs do-nothing +$1,695)
$45.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.47	17/20	$7,497	$4,834	69%	75%	$-1,984	-$13,913	43.5%	$-16,312 (vs do-nothing +$765)
$44	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.01	8/20	$8,080	$12,221	69%	75%	+$821	-$8,115	25.4%	$-18,285 (vs do-nothing $-1,208)

Show 22 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$46	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.68	16/20	$7,567	$5,660	68%	76%	+$319	-$10,358	32.4%	$-13,621 (vs do-nothing +$3,456)
$45	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.11	12/20	$7,596	$8,713	67%	74%	+$300	-$9,653	30.2%	$-16,369 (vs do-nothing +$708)
$45	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.98	14/20	$7,362	$6,967	66%	74%	+$156	-$10,043	31.4%	$-15,033 (vs do-nothing +$2,044)
$43.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.13	7/20	$7,910	$12,807	66%	73%	+$431	-$7,367	23.0%	$-18,400 (vs do-nothing $-1,323)
$44.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.00	13/20	$7,800	$8,161	65%	73%	$-801	-$11,250	35.2%	$-17,103 (vs do-nothing $-26)
$44	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.52	10/20	$7,560	$10,189	64%	72%	+$373	-$8,634	27.0%	$-17,077 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$44	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	13/20	$7,800	$8,161	63%	72%	+$227	-$10,080	31.5%	$-15,933 (vs do-nothing +$1,144)
$43	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.29	6/20	$7,740	$13,393	62%	71%	+$241	-$6,518	20.4%	$-18,415 (vs do-nothing $-1,338)
$43.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.15	12/20	$7,740	$8,857	62%	71%	$-1,611	-$11,405	35.6%	$-18,121 (vs do-nothing $-1,044)
$43	24d	14 Aug 2026	$4.40	14/20	$7,700	$7,305	61%	71%	$-386	-$10,855	33.9%	$-15,845 (vs do-nothing +$1,232)
$43	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.75	11/20	$7,279	$9,152	60%	71%	+$56	-$9,244	28.9%	$-16,824 (vs do-nothing +$253)
$43	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.79	9/20	$7,533	$10,918	60%	70%	$-57	-$8,427	26.3%	$-17,734 (vs do-nothing $-657)
$42.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.48	5/20	$7,400	$13,809	59%	69%	+$138	-$5,587	17.5%	$-18,347 (vs do-nothing $-1,270)
$42	24d	14 Aug 2026	$4.80	13/20	$7,800	$8,161	58%	70%	$-380	-$10,860	33.9%	$-16,713 (vs do-nothing +$364)
$42.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	9/20	$8,100	$11,485	58%	70%	$-99	-$8,688	27.2%	$-17,995 (vs do-nothing $-918)
$42	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	10/20	$7,235	$9,864	57%	69%	$-136	-$9,054	28.3%	$-17,497 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$42	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	8/20	$7,800	$11,941	56%	68%	$-59	-$7,923	24.8%	$-18,093 (vs do-nothing $-1,016)
$41	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.25	12/20	$7,875	$8,992	56%	68%	$-340	-$10,685	33.4%	$-17,401 (vs do-nothing $-324)
$42	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.66	5/20	$8,300	$14,709	55%	67%	$-83	-$5,747	18.0%	$-18,507 (vs do-nothing $-1,430)
$41	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.60	9/20	$7,306	$10,691	54%	68%	$-111	-$8,598	26.9%	$-17,905 (vs do-nothing $-828)
$41.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.87	4/20	$7,480	$14,645	51%	65%	$-212	-$4,714	14.7%	$-18,337 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$41	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.08	4/20	$8,320	$15,485	48%	63%	$-445	-$4,830	15.1%	$-18,453 (vs do-nothing $-1,376)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:04