FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1299 @ $41.02

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.76 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1299 @ $41.02 UNDERWATER $2.98 (6.8% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.76 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$15,988/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$4,483/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-13,150	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,994/mo

HEDGE COVER
$4,483/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$15,988/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $48.76 (probe: $49C 17d) still earns $6,671/mo (42% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-4,886

Hole (after banked)

$18,036

was $13,150 · -37% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 46 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.98 (+61%) · daily UBB $50.00 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $48.76 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $49 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $49)

82%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,260

Income / mo

$6,780

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.28/sh now → $3.74 mid-life (likely $3.93–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 983 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $2.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$49	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.14/sh	+$2,289 cycle +$4,549 [+$1,458…+$2,937] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$53	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.84/sh	+$1,672 cycle +$3,932 [+$315…+$2,093] · 85% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$51	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.50/sh	+$1,002 cycle +$3,262 [+$122…+$1,419] · 82% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$55	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.02/sh	+$36 cycle +$2,296 [-$1,642…+$303] · 30% credit	76% surv 69%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$58	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$0.81/sh	-$1,630 cycle +$630 [-$3,379…-$1,425] · 10% credit	80% surv 75%
budget: banked $2,260 debit $1,630 (72% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$630 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $9,222/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

95%

Touch odds

11%

Per cycle

$320

Income / mo

$3,200

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.55/sh	+$5,100 cycle +$5,420 [+$5,087…+$5,881] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$60	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.94/sh	+$1,877 cycle +$2,197 [+$408…+$2,488] · 82% credit	79% surv 75%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$56	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$160 cycle +$480 [-$1,029…+$604] · 51% credit	79% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$60	7 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.05/sh	+$94 cycle +$414 [-$1,595…+$625] · 47% credit	80% surv 76%

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $51 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $51)

96%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$160

Income / mo

$1,600

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$51	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.62/sh	+$5,243 cycle +$5,403 [+$5,273…+$6,066] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$61	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.02/sh	+$2,038 cycle +$2,198 [+$546…+$2,686] · 81% credit	79% surv 74%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$57	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$259 cycle +$419 [-$1,054…+$740] · 56% credit	79% surv 73%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$61	7 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.10/sh	+$196 cycle +$356 [-$1,582…+$774] · 51% credit	79% surv 76%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.861 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$13,328 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,282

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$46.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.44	19/20	$8,360	$4,636	85%	87%	+$2,915	-$3,457	10.8%	$-3,503 (vs do-nothing +$779)
$46	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.53	16/20	$8,480	$7,033	83%	86%	+$2,884	-$3,567	11.1%	$-4,282 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$45.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.63	13/20	$8,190	$9,020	81%	84%	+$2,664	-$3,419	10.7%	$-4,802 (vs do-nothing $-520)
$48	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.34	20/20	$8,040	$3,557	79%	83%	+$2,285	-$0	0.0%	$1,338 (vs do-nothing +$5,620)
$45	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.76	11/20	$8,360	$10,708	78%	82%	+$2,704	-$3,300	10.3%	$-5,129 (vs do-nothing $-847)
$47	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.58	17/20	$8,058	$5,852	76%	81%	+$2,081	-$305	1.0%	$-797 (vs do-nothing +$3,485)
$44.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.87	10/20	$8,700	$11,807	76%	80%	+$2,515	-$3,390	10.6%	$-5,442 (vs do-nothing $-1,160)
$46.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.71	16/20	$8,208	$6,761	75%	80%	+$2,004	-$879	2.7%	$-1,594 (vs do-nothing +$2,688)
$46	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.93	14/20	$8,106	$8,177	73%	79%	+$2,129	-$1,162	3.6%	$-2,322 (vs do-nothing +$1,960)
$44	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.02	8/20	$8,160	$12,785	73%	79%	+$2,244	-$2,992	9.3%	$-5,490 (vs do-nothing $-1,208)
$47	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.43	19/20	$8,148	$4,424	72%	78%	+$634	-$0	0.0%	$1,228 (vs do-nothing +$5,510)
$45.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.02	14/20	$8,484	$8,555	72%	78%	+$1,915	-$1,736	5.4%	$-2,896 (vs do-nothing +$1,386)
$46	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.70	17/20	$8,100	$5,894	70%	76%	+$560	-$101	0.3%	$-593 (vs do-nothing +$3,689)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.17	7/20	$8,190	$13,574	70%	77%	+$2,042	-$2,863	8.9%	$-5,584 (vs do-nothing $-1,302)
$45	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.19	13/20	$8,541	$9,371	69%	76%	+$1,352	-$2,041	6.4%	$-3,424 (vs do-nothing +$858)
$46	24d	14 Aug 2026	$3.25	20/20	$8,125	$3,642	69%	76%	$-133	-$0	0.0%	$1,158 (vs do-nothing +$5,440)
$44.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.35	12/20	$8,460	$10,049	68%	75%	+$1,287	-$2,292	7.2%	$-3,898 (vs do-nothing +$384)
$45	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	16/20	$8,471	$7,024	67%	75%	+$526	-$1,215	3.8%	$-1,930 (vs do-nothing +$2,352)
$45	24d	14 Aug 2026	$3.90	17/20	$8,288	$6,082	67%	75%	+$602	-$0	0.0%	$-253 (vs do-nothing +$4,029)
$43	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.35	6/20	$8,100	$14,243	66%	75%	+$1,884	-$2,646	8.3%	$-5,590 (vs do-nothing $-1,308)
$44	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.53	11/20	$8,349	$10,697	66%	74%	+$1,250	-$2,453	7.7%	$-4,282 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$44	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.25	14/20	$8,029	$8,101	65%	74%	+$263	-$2,114	6.6%	$-3,274 (vs do-nothing +$1,008)
$44	24d	14 Aug 2026	$4.00	16/20	$8,000	$6,553	65%	74%	+$89	-$1,215	3.8%	$-1,930 (vs do-nothing +$2,352)
$43.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.71	10/20	$8,130	$11,237	64%	74%	+$1,414	-$2,550	8.0%	$-4,602 (vs do-nothing $-320)
$42.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.54	6/20	$9,240	$15,383	63%	73%	+$1,959	-$2,832	8.8%	$-5,776 (vs do-nothing $-1,494)
$43	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.90	10/20	$8,700	$11,807	62%	73%	+$1,390	-$2,860	8.9%	$-4,912 (vs do-nothing $-630)
$43	24d	14 Aug 2026	$4.45	15/20	$8,344	$7,656	62%	73%	+$242	-$1,965	6.1%	$-2,902 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$43	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.90	12/20	$8,259	$9,848	62%	73%	+$1,229	-$2,232	7.0%	$-3,838 (vs do-nothing +$444)
$42.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	9/20	$8,100	$11,966	61%	72%	+$954	-$2,934	9.2%	$-5,209 (vs do-nothing $-927)
$42	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.10	13/20	$8,288	$9,118	60%	71%	+$626	-$2,158	6.7%	$-3,541 (vs do-nothing +$741)
$42	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.74	5/20	$8,700	$15,602	60%	71%	+$1,643	-$2,510	7.8%	$-5,677 (vs do-nothing $-1,395)
$42	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.25	11/20	$8,250	$10,598	59%	71%	+$972	-$2,761	8.6%	$-4,590 (vs do-nothing $-308)
$42	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.40	8/20	$8,160	$12,785	59%	71%	+$1,275	-$2,688	8.4%	$-5,186 (vs do-nothing $-904)
$41	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.30	13/20	$8,612	$9,443	57%	70%	+$264	-$3,198	10.0%	$-4,581 (vs do-nothing $-299)
$41.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.60	8/20	$8,640	$13,265	57%	70%	+$1,192	-$2,928	9.1%	$-5,426 (vs do-nothing $-1,144)
$41.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	5/20	$9,850	$16,752	56%	70%	+$1,699	-$2,645	8.3%	$-5,812 (vs do-nothing $-1,530)
$41	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.55	10/20	$8,029	$11,137	56%	70%	+$590	-$3,210	10.0%	$-5,262 (vs do-nothing $-980)
$41	10d	31 Jul 2026	$3.90	7/20	$8,190	$13,574	55%	69%	+$1,155	-$2,702	8.4%	$-5,423 (vs do-nothing $-1,141)
$40.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	7/20	$8,400	$13,784	53%	68%	+$821	-$2,982	9.3%	$-5,703 (vs do-nothing $-1,421)
$41	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.22	4/20	$8,880	$16,541	53%	68%	+$1,399	-$2,216	6.9%	$-5,606 (vs do-nothing $-1,324)
$40.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.48	4/20	$9,920	$17,581	49%	66%	+$1,393	-$2,312	7.2%	$-5,702 (vs do-nothing $-1,420)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 21:43