20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.63 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,847/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $6,300/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,350 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.50 | $1,005 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 16 × $40 | 87% | $6,560 | $5,041 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 18 × $40 | 78% | $6,642 | $-1,685 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $42 | 31 Jul | 3d | 21.5% | 93%hist 100% | 15%hist 5% | +1pp | $437 | $4,370 | -$2,190 | $14,060 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $42 21.5% OTM over spot $34.56 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $437 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $42.26) 93% EV / mo +$2,407 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 44% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,645/mo median; plan ~$-2,479/mo after 68% keep · $-30,165 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.7], measured ONLY among the 44% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,141 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.66/sh now → $1.88 mid-life (likely $1.80–$3.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 281 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $44 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $8 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $42.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $42): -$14,060 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$507 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,558 (+$8,792 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,427, the opportunity cost of earning $4,370/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $40.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 17.2% | 88%hist 99% | 24%hist 13% | +2pp | $640 | $6,400 | -$160 | $17,620 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40.50 17.2% OTM over spot $34.56 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid) = $640 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $40.88) 90% EV / mo +$2,516 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,247/mo median; plan ~$-2,208/mo after 68% keep · $-24,183 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-3.4], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,945 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.53/sh now → $1.79 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 448 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $42 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $9 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $40.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40.50): -$17,620 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,611 (+$5,739 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,480, the opportunity cost of earning $6,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $40 | 31 Jul | 3d | 15.7% | 87%hist 99% | 28%hist 13% | +3pp | $656 | $6,560 | — | $14,752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $40 15.7% OTM over spot $34.56 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.43 mid) = $656 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $40.44) 88% EV / mo +$2,740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2,673/mo median; plan ~$-1,817/mo after 68% keep · $-20,511 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.7-2.8], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,164 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $53 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $1.84–$3.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.41/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 545 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $42 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $10 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.41 collected) or spot ≥ $40.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $40): -$14,752 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $44): -$2,028 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,771 (+$6,579 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,640, the opportunity cost of earning $6,560/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $38.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 11.4% | 80%hist 96% | 42%hist 28% | +8pp | $1,300 | $13,000 | +$6,440 | $20,960 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $38.50 11.4% OTM over spot $34.56 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.70 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $39.20) 83% EV / mo +$4,307 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,563/mo median; plan ~$-1,063/mo after 68% keep · $-7,682 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.6], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,048 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.88–$3.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 856 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $40 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38.50 is $11 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $39.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $38.50): -$20,960 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,951 (+$2,399 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,820, the opportunity cost of earning $13,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $42 | 7 Aug | 10d | 21.5% | 84%hist 99% | 34%hist 18% | -1pp | $1,458 | $4,374 | -$2,268 | $12,276 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $42 21.5% OTM over spot $34.56 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $0.91 mid) = $1,458 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,374/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $42.91) 86% EV / mo +$1,332 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,942/mo median; plan ~$-2,681/mo after 68% keep · $-33,297 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.7], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,993 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $48 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.06/sh now → $3.58 mid-life (likely $3.63–$5.41) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $8 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $42.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $42): -$12,276 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$1,014 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,281 (+$10,069 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,150, the opportunity cost of earning $4,374/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 cover hedge | 18 × $40 | 7 Aug | 10d | 15.7% | 78%hist 96% | 48%hist 28% | +1pp | $2,214 | $6,642 | — | $15,120 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $40 15.7% OTM over spot $34.56 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.32 mid) = $2,214 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,642/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $41.33) 82% EV / mo +$1,832 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 45% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,409/mo median; plan ~$-2,318/mo after 68% keep · $-27,220 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.1], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,811 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.73/sh now → $3.35 mid-life (likely $3.64–$5.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,147 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $42 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $10 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.23 collected) or spot ≥ $41.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $40): -$15,120 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$1,014 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,125 (+$7,225 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,994, the opportunity cost of earning $6,642/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $36.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 5.6% | 64%hist 80% | 79%hist 59% | +3pp | $4,440 | $13,320 | +$6,678 | $21,820 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $36.50 5.6% OTM over spot $34.56 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.35 mid) = $4,440 credit for the 10d cycle → $13,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $36.50) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $38.85) 74% EV / mo +$2,135 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 43% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2,633/mo median; plan ~$-1,790/mo after 68% keep · $-20,572 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.8-2.8], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,458 Free roll-up +$0/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.17/sh now → $2.95 mid-life (likely $3.92–$5.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,892 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $38 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36.50 is $13 below CC-SS $49.63: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.56/sh (~25% of the $2.22 collected) or spot ≥ $38.85 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.18 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.78 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.63, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,350 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,358 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $36.50): -$21,820 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,811 (+$1,539 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-12,131 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,680, the opportunity cost of earning $13,320/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 51 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.775 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,358 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-12,131
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.41 | 16/20 | $6,560 | $932 | 87% | 88% | +$2,740 | -$14,752 | 46.1% | $-18,771 (vs do-nothing $-6,640) |
| $39.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 15/20 | $6,750 | $1,290 | 85% | 87% | +$2,360 | -$14,520 | 45.4% | $-19,046 (vs do-nothing $-6,915) |
| $39 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.56 | 12/20 | $6,720 | $1,764 | 82% | 85% | +$2,431 | -$12,084 | 37.8% | $-18,131 (vs do-nothing $-6,000) |
| $38.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.65 | 10/20 | $6,500 | $1,880 | 80% | 83% | +$2,153 | -$10,480 | 32.7% | $-17,541 (vs do-nothing $-5,410) |
| $40 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.23 | 18/20 | $6,642 | $678 | 78% | 82% | +$1,832 | -$15,120 | 47.2% | $-18,125 (vs do-nothing $-5,994) |
| $38 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.78 | 9/20 | $7,020 | $2,568 | 77% | 81% | +$2,286 | -$9,765 | 30.5% | $-17,333 (vs do-nothing $-5,202) |
| $39.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.32 | 17/20 | $6,732 | $936 | 76% | 81% | +$1,656 | -$14,977 | 46.8% | $-18,489 (vs do-nothing $-6,358) |
| $39 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.46 | 15/20 | $6,570 | $1,110 | 74% | 80% | +$1,574 | -$13,755 | 43.0% | $-18,281 (vs do-nothing $-6,150) |
| $37.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 8/20 | $7,040 | $2,756 | 74% | 79% | +$1,974 | -$9,000 | 28.1% | $-17,075 (vs do-nothing $-4,944) |
| $40 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.87 | 20/20 | $6,600 | $300 | 74% | 79% | +$1,135 | -$15,520 | 48.5% | $-17,511 (vs do-nothing $-5,380) |
| $39.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 19/20 | $6,706 | $574 | 73% | 79% | +$1,104 | -$15,447 | 48.3% | $-17,945 (vs do-nothing $-5,814) |
| $38.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.59 | 14/20 | $6,678 | $1,386 | 72% | 78% | +$1,485 | -$13,356 | 41.7% | $-18,389 (vs do-nothing $-6,258) |
| $39.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.71 | 19/20 | $6,436 | $304 | 72% | 79% | +$1,359 | -$14,098 | 44.1% | $-16,596 (vs do-nothing $-4,465) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.16 | 17/20 | $6,480 | $684 | 71% | 78% | +$1,076 | -$14,399 | 45.0% | $-17,911 (vs do-nothing $-5,780) |
| $37 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 7/20 | $7,070 | $2,954 | 71% | 78% | +$1,764 | -$8,134 | 25.4% | $-16,716 (vs do-nothing $-4,585) |
| $38 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.74 | 13/20 | $6,786 | $1,662 | 70% | 78% | +$1,427 | -$12,857 | 40.2% | $-18,397 (vs do-nothing $-6,266) |
| $39 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.86 | 18/20 | $6,435 | $471 | 70% | 78% | +$1,292 | -$13,986 | 43.7% | $-16,991 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
| $38.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.30 | 16/20 | $6,494 | $866 | 70% | 77% | +$1,016 | -$14,128 | 44.1% | $-18,147 (vs do-nothing $-6,016) |
| $38.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 18/20 | $6,750 | $786 | 69% | 77% | +$1,256 | -$14,634 | 45.7% | $-17,639 (vs do-nothing $-5,508) |
| $37.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.88 | 12/20 | $6,768 | $1,812 | 68% | 76% | +$1,280 | -$12,300 | 38.4% | $-18,347 (vs do-nothing $-6,216) |
| $38 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.46 | 15/20 | $6,512 | $1,052 | 68% | 76% | +$984 | -$13,755 | 43.0% | $-18,281 (vs do-nothing $-6,150) |
| $36.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.17 | 6/20 | $7,020 | $3,072 | 68% | 76% | +$1,608 | -$7,176 | 22.4% | $-16,265 (vs do-nothing $-4,134) |
| $38 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 17/20 | $6,588 | $791 | 67% | 76% | +$1,049 | -$14,501 | 45.3% | $-18,013 (vs do-nothing $-5,882) |
| $37.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 14/20 | $6,473 | $1,181 | 67% | 75% | +$1,106 | -$13,314 | 41.6% | $-18,347 (vs do-nothing $-6,216) |
| $37 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.07 | 11/20 | $6,831 | $2,043 | 66% | 75% | +$1,262 | -$11,616 | 36.3% | $-18,170 (vs do-nothing $-6,039) |
| $37.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 16/20 | $6,600 | $972 | 66% | 76% | +$1,039 | -$14,128 | 44.1% | $-18,147 (vs do-nothing $-6,016) |
| $37 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.82 | 13/20 | $6,469 | $1,345 | 65% | 75% | +$1,083 | -$12,753 | 39.9% | $-18,293 (vs do-nothing $-6,162) |
| $37 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 15/20 | $6,562 | $1,102 | 64% | 75% | +$1,006 | -$13,695 | 42.8% | $-18,221 (vs do-nothing $-6,090) |
| $36 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 5/20 | $6,650 | $2,870 | 64% | 74% | +$1,315 | -$6,150 | 19.2% | $-15,746 (vs do-nothing $-3,615) |
| $36.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.22 | 10/20 | $6,660 | $2,040 | 64% | 74% | +$1,068 | -$10,910 | 34.1% | $-17,971 (vs do-nothing $-5,840) |
| $36.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.90 | 13/20 | $6,653 | $1,529 | 63% | 74% | +$838 | -$13,299 | 41.6% | $-18,839 (vs do-nothing $-6,708) |
| $36.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 14/20 | $6,475 | $1,183 | 63% | 74% | +$952 | -$13,202 | 41.3% | $-18,235 (vs do-nothing $-6,104) |
| $36 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.43 | 9/20 | $6,561 | $2,109 | 62% | 73% | +$1,013 | -$10,080 | 31.5% | $-17,648 (vs do-nothing $-5,517) |
| $36 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.90 | 14/20 | $6,825 | $1,533 | 61% | 73% | +$949 | -$13,622 | 42.6% | $-18,655 (vs do-nothing $-6,524) |
| $36 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 12/20 | $6,459 | $1,503 | 61% | 73% | +$672 | -$12,696 | 39.7% | $-18,743 (vs do-nothing $-6,612) |
| $35.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.52 | 5/20 | $7,600 | $3,820 | 60% | 72% | +$1,329 | -$6,305 | 19.7% | $-15,901 (vs do-nothing $-3,770) |
| $35.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 13/20 | $6,662 | $1,538 | 60% | 73% | +$862 | -$13,039 | 40.7% | $-18,579 (vs do-nothing $-6,448) |
| $35.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.25 | 12/20 | $6,882 | $1,926 | 59% | 72% | +$653 | -$13,056 | 40.8% | $-19,103 (vs do-nothing $-6,972) |
| $35.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.64 | 9/20 | $7,128 | $2,676 | 59% | 72% | +$1,026 | -$10,341 | 32.3% | $-17,909 (vs do-nothing $-5,778) |
| $35 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 12/20 | $6,450 | $1,494 | 58% | 71% | +$763 | -$12,396 | 38.7% | $-18,443 (vs do-nothing $-6,312) |
| $35 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 11/20 | $6,891 | $2,103 | 57% | 71% | +$751 | -$12,188 | 38.1% | $-18,742 (vs do-nothing $-6,611) |
| $35 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 8/20 | $6,840 | $2,556 | 57% | 72% | +$1,085 | -$9,424 | 29.4% | $-17,499 (vs do-nothing $-5,368) |
| $34.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.55 | 12/20 | $6,825 | $1,869 | 57% | 71% | +$790 | -$12,696 | 39.7% | $-18,743 (vs do-nothing $-6,612) |
| $35 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 4/20 | $6,960 | $3,348 | 56% | 70% | +$1,101 | -$5,156 | 16.1% | $-15,259 (vs do-nothing $-3,128) |
| $34.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 10/20 | $6,529 | $1,909 | 55% | 70% | +$537 | -$11,430 | 35.7% | $-18,491 (vs do-nothing $-6,360) |
| $34 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 11/20 | $6,531 | $1,743 | 55% | 70% | +$666 | -$11,968 | 37.4% | $-18,522 (vs do-nothing $-6,391) |
| $34.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 8/20 | $7,320 | $3,036 | 54% | 70% | +$804 | -$9,664 | 30.2% | $-17,739 (vs do-nothing $-5,608) |
| $34 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.95 | 10/20 | $6,971 | $2,351 | 54% | 69% | +$545 | -$11,680 | 36.5% | $-18,741 (vs do-nothing $-6,610) |
| $34.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.83 | 4/20 | $7,320 | $3,708 | 52% | 67% | +$522 | -$5,320 | 16.6% | $-15,423 (vs do-nothing $-3,292) |
| $34 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 7/20 | $6,930 | $2,814 | 51% | 68% | +$916 | -$8,631 | 27.0% | $-17,213 (vs do-nothing $-5,082) |
| $34 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 3/20 | $6,570 | $3,126 | 48% | 66% | +$693 | -$4,032 | 12.6% | $-14,642 (vs do-nothing $-2,511) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.