20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $47.78 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $13,312/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $6,456/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-22,900 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.50 | $1,005 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 2d | 18 × $39.50 | 90% | $6,750 | $5,969 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 9d | 20 × $39.50 | 80% | $6,867 | $702 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $40.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 19.6% | 93%hist 100% | 15%hist 5% | +2pp | $304 | $4,560 | -$2,190 | $13,526 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $40.50 19.6% OTM over spot $33.88 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $304 credit for the 2d cycle → $4,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $40.69) 93% EV / mo +$2,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 50% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,734/mo median; plan ~$-2,539/mo after 68% keep · $-28,350 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 50% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,776 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.29/sh now → $1.62 mid-life (likely $1.71–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.16/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 237 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $42 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $7 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.16 collected) or spot ≥ $40.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40.50): -$13,526 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$298 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,479 (+$7,421 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,866, the opportunity cost of earning $4,560/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $40 | 31 Jul | 2d | 18.1% | 92%hist 100% | 17%hist 5% | +3pp | $440 | $6,600 | -$150 | $15,118 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 18.1% OTM over spot $33.88 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.26 mid) = $440 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $40.26) 92% EV / mo +$3,491 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 50% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,078/mo median; plan ~$-2,093/mo after 68% keep · $-17,862 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,748 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $53 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.25/sh now → $1.59 mid-life (likely $1.63–$3.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 252 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $42 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $8 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $40.26 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$15,118 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,773 (+$6,127 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,160, the opportunity cost of earning $6,600/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $39.50 | 31 Jul | 2d | 16.6% | 90%hist 100% | 21%hist 13% | +4pp | $450 | $6,750 | — | $14,452 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $39.50 16.6% OTM over spot $33.88 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.31 mid) = $450 credit for the 2d cycle → $6,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $39.81) 91% EV / mo +$3,179 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 51% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2,781/mo median; plan ~$-1,891/mo after 68% keep · $-18,292 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,372 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.22/sh now → $1.57 mid-life (likely $1.75–$3.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $41 (overshoots $1.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39.50 is $8 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $39.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $39.50): -$14,452 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$596 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,703 (+$6,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,090, the opportunity cost of earning $6,750/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $38 | 31 Jul | 2d | 12.2% | 84%hist 99% | 34%hist 18% | +9pp | $900 | $13,500 | +$6,750 | $18,658 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $38 12.2% OTM over spot $33.88 31 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.49 mid) = $900 credit for the 2d cycle → $13,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $38.49) 86% EV / mo +$5,440 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +9pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 48% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,482/mo median; plan ~$-1,008/mo after 68% keep · $-6,283 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.1], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,079 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $53 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.68–$3.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.45/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 621 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $40 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38 is $10 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.45 collected) or spot ≥ $38.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $38): -$18,658 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,313 (+$2,587 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,700, the opportunity cost of earning $13,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $41 | 7 Aug | 9d | 21.0% | 84%hist 99% | 34%hist 18% | +0pp | $1,368 | $4,560 | -$2,307 | $10,834 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 21.0% OTM over spot $33.88 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $0.84 mid) = $1,368 credit for the 9d cycle → $4,560/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $41.84) 86% EV / mo +$1,511 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,991/mo median; plan ~$-2,714/mo after 68% keep · $-33,435 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.3], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,870 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $49 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.99–$4.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.76/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 775 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $43 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $7 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.76 collected) or spot ≥ $41.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$10,834 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$596 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,085 (+$9,815 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,472, the opportunity cost of earning $4,560/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $39.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 16.6% | 80%hist 96% | 44%hist 28% | +1pp | $1,957 | $6,523 | -$343 | $13,773 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $39.50 16.6% OTM over spot $33.88 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.34 mid) = $1,957 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,523/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $40.84) 84% EV / mo +$1,865 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 45% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,726/mo median; plan ~$-2,533/mo after 68% keep · $-29,760 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.9-3.5], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,292 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $49 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $2.90–$4.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,030 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $41 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39.50 is $8 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $40.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $39.50): -$13,773 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$298 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,726 (+$7,174 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,113, the opportunity cost of earning $6,523/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $39.50 | 7 Aug | 9d | 16.6% | 80%hist 96% | 44%hist 28% | +3pp | $2,060 | $6,867 | — | $14,498 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $39.50 16.6% OTM over spot $33.88 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $1.34 mid) = $2,060 credit for the 9d cycle → $6,867/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $40.84) 84% EV / mo +$1,963 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 44% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,764/mo median; plan ~$-2,560/mo after 68% keep · $-30,379 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,465 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $49 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.90/sh now → $2.76 mid-life (likely $2.87–$4.43) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,004 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $41 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39.50 is $8 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.03 collected) or spot ≥ $40.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $39.50): -$14,498 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,153 (+$6,747 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,540, the opportunity cost of earning $6,867/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $36 | 7 Aug | 9d | 6.3% | 65%hist 80% | 75%hist 59% | +7pp | $4,000 | $13,333 | +$6,467 | $19,558 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $36 6.3% OTM over spot $33.88 7 Aug 2026 (9d, $2.09 mid) = $4,000 credit for the 9d cycle → $13,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $36) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $38.09) 74% EV / mo +$2,400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +7pp 46% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,076/mo median; plan ~$-2,092/mo after 68% keep · $-24,106 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 46% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$861 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $50 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.43/sh now → $2.43 mid-life (likely $3.18–$4.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,838 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $38 (overshoots $1.67). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36 is $12 below CC-SS $47.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $38.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-22,900 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$21,246 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $36): -$19,558 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,213 (+$1,687 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,613 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,600, the opportunity cost of earning $13,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 49 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.764 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$21,246 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,613
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.25 | 18/20 | $6,750 | $594 | 90% | 91% | +$3,179 | -$14,452 | 45.2% | $-16,703 (vs do-nothing $-9,090) |
| $39 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 15/20 | $6,975 | $1,269 | 88% | 90% | +$3,191 | -$12,704 | 39.7% | $-15,848 (vs do-nothing $-8,235) |
| $38.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 12/20 | $6,660 | $1,404 | 86% | 88% | +$2,826 | -$10,691 | 33.4% | $-14,729 (vs do-nothing $-7,116) |
| $38 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 10/20 | $6,750 | $1,794 | 84% | 86% | +$2,720 | -$9,329 | 29.2% | $-13,963 (vs do-nothing $-6,350) |
| $37.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 9/20 | $7,290 | $2,484 | 81% | 84% | +$2,737 | -$8,765 | 27.4% | $-13,697 (vs do-nothing $-6,084) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.03 | 20/20 | $6,867 | $411 | 80% | 84% | +$1,963 | -$14,498 | 45.3% | $-16,153 (vs do-nothing $-8,540) |
| $37 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 7/20 | $6,720 | $2,214 | 78% | 82% | +$2,298 | -$7,097 | 22.2% | $-12,625 (vs do-nothing $-5,012) |
| $39 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.14 | 18/20 | $6,840 | $684 | 78% | 82% | +$1,863 | -$13,750 | 43.0% | $-16,001 (vs do-nothing $-8,388) |
| $38.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.19 | 17/20 | $6,743 | $738 | 76% | 81% | +$1,451 | -$13,752 | 43.0% | $-16,300 (vs do-nothing $-8,687) |
| $36.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.75 | 6/20 | $6,750 | $2,394 | 75% | 80% | +$2,042 | -$6,317 | 19.7% | $-12,143 (vs do-nothing $-4,530) |
| $39 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.83 | 20/20 | $6,863 | $407 | 74% | 80% | +$1,557 | -$13,898 | 43.4% | $-15,553 (vs do-nothing $-7,940) |
| $38 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.38 | 15/20 | $6,900 | $1,194 | 74% | 79% | +$1,652 | -$12,599 | 39.4% | $-15,743 (vs do-nothing $-8,130) |
| $38.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.93 | 19/20 | $6,876 | $570 | 73% | 79% | +$1,377 | -$13,963 | 43.6% | $-15,916 (vs do-nothing $-8,303) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $37.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.47 | 14/20 | $6,860 | $1,304 | 72% | 78% | +$1,366 | -$12,333 | 38.5% | $-15,775 (vs do-nothing $-8,162) |
| $38 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.08 | 18/20 | $7,020 | $864 | 71% | 78% | +$1,342 | -$13,858 | 43.3% | $-16,109 (vs do-nothing $-8,496) |
| $36 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.89 | 5/20 | $6,675 | $2,469 | 71% | 78% | +$1,833 | -$5,445 | 17.0% | $-11,568 (vs do-nothing $-3,955) |
| $38.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 20/20 | $6,835 | $379 | 71% | 77% | +$747 | -$13,318 | 41.6% | $-14,973 (vs do-nothing $-7,360) |
| $37 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.65 | 13/20 | $7,150 | $1,744 | 70% | 77% | +$1,440 | -$11,868 | 37.1% | $-15,608 (vs do-nothing $-7,995) |
| $37.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.23 | 16/20 | $6,690 | $834 | 69% | 77% | +$1,195 | -$12,879 | 40.2% | $-15,725 (vs do-nothing $-8,112) |
| $38 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.77 | 19/20 | $6,865 | $559 | 69% | 76% | +$724 | -$13,317 | 41.6% | $-15,270 (vs do-nothing $-7,657) |
| $37.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.94 | 18/20 | $6,903 | $747 | 68% | 76% | +$728 | -$13,210 | 41.3% | $-15,461 (vs do-nothing $-7,848) |
| $37 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 15/20 | $6,750 | $1,044 | 68% | 76% | +$1,146 | -$12,569 | 39.3% | $-15,713 (vs do-nothing $-8,100) |
| $36.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.81 | 12/20 | $7,240 | $1,984 | 67% | 75% | +$1,353 | -$11,363 | 35.5% | $-15,401 (vs do-nothing $-7,788) |
| $35.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 5/20 | $7,725 | $3,519 | 67% | 75% | +$1,789 | -$5,625 | 17.6% | $-11,748 (vs do-nothing $-4,135) |
| $37 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 17/20 | $6,874 | $868 | 67% | 75% | +$688 | -$13,055 | 40.8% | $-15,603 (vs do-nothing $-7,990) |
| $36.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.56 | 14/20 | $6,720 | $1,164 | 66% | 75% | +$1,039 | -$12,207 | 38.1% | $-15,649 (vs do-nothing $-8,036) |
| $36 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.00 | 10/20 | $6,667 | $1,711 | 65% | 74% | +$1,200 | -$9,779 | 30.6% | $-14,413 (vs do-nothing $-6,800) |
| $36.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 16/20 | $6,887 | $1,031 | 65% | 74% | +$714 | -$12,767 | 39.9% | $-15,613 (vs do-nothing $-8,000) |
| $36 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.76 | 13/20 | $6,728 | $1,322 | 64% | 74% | +$1,005 | -$11,725 | 36.6% | $-15,465 (vs do-nothing $-7,852) |
| $36 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 15/20 | $6,750 | $1,044 | 64% | 73% | +$618 | -$12,494 | 39.0% | $-15,638 (vs do-nothing $-8,025) |
| $35 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.16 | 4/20 | $6,960 | $2,904 | 63% | 73% | +$1,185 | -$4,648 | 14.5% | $-11,069 (vs do-nothing $-3,456) |
| $35.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.16 | 10/20 | $7,200 | $2,244 | 63% | 73% | +$1,123 | -$10,119 | 31.6% | $-14,753 (vs do-nothing $-7,140) |
| $35.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 14/20 | $6,665 | $1,110 | 62% | 73% | +$603 | -$12,081 | 37.8% | $-15,523 (vs do-nothing $-7,910) |
| $35.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 13/20 | $6,947 | $1,541 | 62% | 73% | +$748 | -$12,258 | 38.3% | $-15,998 (vs do-nothing $-8,385) |
| $35 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 14/20 | $7,030 | $1,475 | 61% | 72% | +$613 | -$12,501 | 39.1% | $-15,943 (vs do-nothing $-8,330) |
| $35 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.32 | 9/20 | $6,960 | $2,154 | 60% | 72% | +$895 | -$9,413 | 29.4% | $-14,345 (vs do-nothing $-6,732) |
| $35 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $7,088 | $1,832 | 60% | 72% | +$898 | -$11,555 | 36.1% | $-15,593 (vs do-nothing $-7,980) |
| $34.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.05 | 13/20 | $6,867 | $1,462 | 59% | 71% | +$843 | -$11,998 | 37.5% | $-15,738 (vs do-nothing $-8,125) |
| $34.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 4/20 | $8,400 | $4,344 | 58% | 70% | +$1,436 | -$4,752 | 14.8% | $-11,173 (vs do-nothing $-3,560) |
| $34.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $6,909 | $1,804 | 58% | 71% | +$782 | -$10,922 | 34.1% | $-15,258 (vs do-nothing $-7,645) |
| $34.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.54 | 8/20 | $6,773 | $2,118 | 58% | 70% | +$811 | -$8,591 | 26.8% | $-13,821 (vs do-nothing $-6,208) |
| $34 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.30 | 12/20 | $6,730 | $1,475 | 57% | 71% | +$812 | -$11,375 | 35.5% | $-15,413 (vs do-nothing $-7,800) |
| $34 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $6,656 | $1,701 | 56% | 70% | +$651 | -$10,229 | 32.0% | $-14,863 (vs do-nothing $-7,250) |
| $33.50 | 23d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.50 | 12/20 | $7,043 | $1,788 | 55% | 70% | +$750 | -$11,735 | 36.7% | $-15,773 (vs do-nothing $-8,160) |
| $34 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.76 | 8/20 | $7,360 | $2,704 | 55% | 69% | +$783 | -$8,815 | 27.5% | $-14,045 (vs do-nothing $-6,432) |
| $33.50 | 16d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $7,125 | $2,169 | 54% | 69% | +$661 | -$10,479 | 32.7% | $-15,113 (vs do-nothing $-7,500) |
| $34 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.59 | 3/20 | $7,155 | $3,249 | 54% | 68% | +$914 | -$3,657 | 11.4% | $-10,376 (vs do-nothing $-2,763) |
| $33.50 | 9d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $7,000 | $2,494 | 52% | 68% | +$669 | -$7,895 | 24.7% | $-13,423 (vs do-nothing $-5,810) |
| $33.50 | 2d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.82 | 3/20 | $8,190 | $4,284 | 49% | 66% | +$801 | -$3,738 | 11.7% | $-10,457 (vs do-nothing $-2,844) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.