20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $51.33 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,188/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $8,164/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-32,120 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $55C 31 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.50 | $1,005 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 20 × $34 | 68% | $8,175 | $1,152 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $37 | 7 Aug | 8d | 17.8% | 81%hist 99% | 41%hist 28% | +0pp | $840 | $3,150 | -$5,025 | $20,660 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $37 17.8% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid) = $840 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $37) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $37.63) 83% EV / mo $-344 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-6,604/mo median; plan ~$-4,491/mo after 68% keep · $-58,352 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.4], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,776 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 81% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 925 simulated challenges: the $37 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $37 is $14 below CC-SS $51.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $37.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $37)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $51.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,874 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $37): -$20,660 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $44): -$3,502 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,407 (+$11,713 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,155, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 50% normal | 17 × $36 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.6% | 77%hist 96% | 49%hist 28% | +3pp | $1,275 | $4,781 | -$3,394 | $24,791 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $36 14.6% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,781/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $36) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $36.77) 80% EV / mo $-311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-6,392/mo median; plan ~$-4,347/mo after 68% keep · $-56,083 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,580 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.83–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,117 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $38 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36 is $15 below CC-SS $51.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $36.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $51.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,874 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $36): -$24,791 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$2,101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,138 (+$8,982 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,886, the opportunity cost of earning $4,781/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 cover hedge | 20 × $34 | 7 Aug | 8d | 8.3% | 68%hist 80% | 68%hist 51% | +3pp | $2,180 | $8,175 | — | $32,486 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $34 8.3% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.23 mid) = $2,180 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,175/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $34) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $35.23) 74% EV / mo $-1,564 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~5.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-5,856/mo median; plan ~$-3,982/mo after 68% keep · $-51,411 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.8-3.5], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$927 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $48 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.19/sh now → $1.55 mid-life (likely $1.93–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,576 simulated challenges: the $34 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $36 (overshoots $1.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $34 is $17 below CC-SS $51.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $35.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $34)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $51.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,874 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $34): -$32,486 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,732 (+$3,388 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,480, the opportunity cost of earning $8,175/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $33 | 7 Aug | 8d | 5.1% | 63%hist 80% | 80%hist 59% | +4pp | $2,546 | $9,548 | +$1,373 | $32,287 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $33 5.1% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.41 mid) = $2,546 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,548/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $33) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $34.41) 70% EV / mo $-2,107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 42% whole by 9mo vs 38% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-5,711/mo median; plan ~$-3,883/mo after 68% keep · $-48,285 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.8 mo [0.9-3.9], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$289 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.99–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,884 simulated challenges: the $33 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $35 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $33 is $18 below CC-SS $51.33: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $34.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $33)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $51.33, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-32,120 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,874 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $33): -$32,287 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$700 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,233 (+$2,887 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,252 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,981, the opportunity cost of earning $9,548/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 10 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$35,874 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,252
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $34 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 20/20 | $8,175 | $11 | 68% | 74% | $-1,564 | -$32,486 | 101.5% | $-28,732 (vs do-nothing $-18,480) |
| $33.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 18/20 | $8,167 | $136 | 66% | 72% | $-1,682 | -$29,922 | 93.5% | $-27,568 (vs do-nothing $-17,316) |
| $33 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 17/20 | $8,543 | $577 | 63% | 70% | $-1,885 | -$28,888 | 90.3% | $-27,235 (vs do-nothing $-16,983) |
| $32 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.27 | 18/20 | $8,172 | $140 | 58% | 68% | $-1,554 | -$30,714 | 96.0% | $-28,360 (vs do-nothing $-18,108) |
| $32 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.63 | 14/20 | $8,558 | $790 | 58% | 67% | $-2,151 | -$24,784 | 77.5% | $-25,232 (vs do-nothing $-14,980) |
| $31.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 20/20 | $8,318 | $155 | 57% | 68% | $-1,306 | -$33,566 | 104.9% | $-29,812 (vs do-nothing $-19,560) |
| $31 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 19/20 | $8,550 | $452 | 55% | 67% | $-1,208 | -$32,363 | 101.1% | $-29,309 (vs do-nothing $-19,057) |
| $31.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.54 | 15/20 | $8,662 | $829 | 55% | 64% | $-4,097 | -$27,440 | 85.7% | $-27,187 (vs do-nothing $-16,935) |
| $31 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 16/20 | $8,640 | $740 | 54% | 66% | $-1,439 | -$28,213 | 88.2% | $-27,260 (vs do-nothing $-17,008) |
| $31 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.99 | 11/20 | $8,209 | $639 | 52% | 63% | $-2,165 | -$20,178 | 63.1% | $-22,726 (vs do-nothing $-12,474) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.