FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1299 @ $39.88

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.25 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1299 @ $39.88 UNDERWATER $4.12 (9.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

IREN reports 2026-08-27 (Thu), in 27 days. The recommended CC (21d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-27.

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.25 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$11,786/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$5,026/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-16,300	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,893/mo

HEDGE COVER
$5,026/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$11,786/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
4.8 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $49.25 (probe: $49C 14d) still earns $2,957/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-4,886

Hole (after banked)

$21,186

was $16,300 · -30% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,005

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $55C 31 Jul 2026	U10001299	$0.50	$1,005	2026-07-22

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 31 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 61 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $66.15 (+66%) · daily UBB $44.96 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $49.25 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $50 21 Aug 2026 (21d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$2,220

Income / mo

$3,171

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $3.89–$5.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 947 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 21, at $52 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$50	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$810 cycle +$3,030 [+$134…+$1,113] · 86% credit	66% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$50	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$810 cycle +$3,030 [+$134…+$1,113] · 86% credit	66% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.40/sh	+$804 cycle +$3,024 [+$111…+$1,113] · 84% credit	66% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$55	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.06/sh	-$2,119 cycle +$101 [-$3,209…-$2,104] · 2% credit	74% surv 68%
budget: banked $2,220 debit $2,119 (95% used ≈ 2.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$101 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $9,170/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $55 21 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $55)

90%

Touch odds

22%

Per cycle

$1,220

Income / mo

$1,743

Buyback gross: $6.18/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $3.56–$5.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 531 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 13 of 21, at $57 (overshoots $2.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$55	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.47/sh	+$941 cycle +$2,161 [+$510…+$1,996] · 94% credit	67% surv 57%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$55	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.46/sh	+$923 cycle +$2,143 [+$481…+$1,991] · 93% credit	66% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$56	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$75 cycle +$1,295 [-$463…+$1,082] · 54% credit	68% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$56	28 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.04/sh	+$75 cycle +$1,295 [-$463…+$1,082] · 54% credit	68% surv 59%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$58	28 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.47/sh	-$945 cycle +$275 [-$1,573…-$43] · 24% credit	71% surv 63%
budget: banked $1,220 debit $945 (77% used ≈ 2.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$275 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $13,038/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $62 7 Aug 2026 (7d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $62)

99%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$20

Income / mo

$86

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$62	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$1.83/sh	+$3,651 cycle +$3,671	66% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$67	14 Aug 2026	10d left	+$0.11/sh	+$218 cycle +$238	73% surv 67%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$77	28 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.60/sh	+$1,208 cycle +$1,228	81% surv 78%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.864 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,181 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,497

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$44	7d	7 Aug 2026	$0.81	17/20	$5,901	$1,878	74%	77%	$-1,250	-$7,546	23.6%	$-8,772 (vs do-nothing $-1,275)
$44	14d	14 Aug 2026	$1.56	18/20	$6,017	$1,660	70%	75%	$-672	-$6,640	20.8%	$-7,497 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$43	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.02	14/20	$6,120	$3,100	70%	74%	$-1,303	-$7,321	22.9%	$-9,653 (vs do-nothing $-2,156)
$44	21d	21 Aug 2026	$2.25	19/20	$6,107	$1,415	68%	74%	$-539	-$5,698	17.8%	$-6,186 (vs do-nothing +$1,311)
$43	14d	14 Aug 2026	$1.78	16/20	$6,103	$2,414	67%	73%	$-865	-$7,151	22.3%	$-8,745 (vs do-nothing $-1,248)
$43	21d	21 Aug 2026	$2.52	17/20	$6,120	$2,097	66%	73%	$-601	-$6,339	19.8%	$-7,565 (vs do-nothing $-68)
$43	28d	28 Aug 2026	$2.95	19/20	$6,005	$1,314	65%	73%	$-790	-$6,268	19.6%	$-6,756 (vs do-nothing +$741)
$42	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.26	11/20	$5,940	$3,923	65%	71%	$-1,353	-$6,588	20.6%	$-10,027 (vs do-nothing $-2,530)
$42	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.09	14/20	$6,270	$3,250	63%	71%	$-849	-$7,223	22.6%	$-9,555 (vs do-nothing $-2,058)
$42	21d	21 Aug 2026	$2.82	15/20	$6,043	$2,688	63%	71%	$-643	-$6,644	20.8%	$-8,607 (vs do-nothing $-1,110)
$42	28d	28 Aug 2026	$3.20	18/20	$6,171	$1,814	63%	71%	$-984	-$7,288	22.8%	$-8,145 (vs do-nothing $-648)
$41	28d	28 Aug 2026	$3.45	16/20	$5,914	$2,225	60%	72%	$-1,141	-$7,679	24.0%	$-9,273 (vs do-nothing $-1,776)
$41	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.53	9/20	$5,901	$4,553	60%	68%	$-1,494	-$6,047	18.9%	$-10,224 (vs do-nothing $-2,727)

Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$41	21d	21 Aug 2026	$3.15	14/20	$6,300	$3,280	60%	69%	$-717	-$7,139	22.3%	$-9,471 (vs do-nothing $-1,974)
$41	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.28	13/20	$6,351	$3,665	59%	69%	$-1,337	-$7,760	24.2%	$-10,461 (vs do-nothing $-2,964)
$40	28d	28 Aug 2026	$3.85	15/20	$6,188	$2,833	57%	69%	$-1,133	-$8,099	25.3%	$-10,062 (vs do-nothing $-2,565)
$40	21d	21 Aug 2026	$3.50	12/20	$6,000	$3,648	56%	68%	$-745	-$6,899	21.6%	$-9,969 (vs do-nothing $-2,472)
$40	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.75	10/20	$5,893	$4,210	55%	66%	$-956	-$6,499	20.3%	$-10,307 (vs do-nothing $-2,810)
$39.50	21d	21 Aug 2026	$3.70	12/20	$6,343	$3,991	55%	67%	$-793	-$7,259	22.7%	$-10,329 (vs do-nothing $-2,832)
$40	7d	7 Aug 2026	$1.85	8/20	$6,343	$5,328	54%	64%	$-1,725	-$5,919	18.5%	$-10,465 (vs do-nothing $-2,968)
$39.50	14d	14 Aug 2026	$2.93	10/20	$6,279	$4,595	53%	65%	$-1,078	-$6,819	21.3%	$-10,627 (vs do-nothing $-3,130)
$39.50	7d	7 Aug 2026	$2.03	7/20	$6,090	$5,410	51%	63%	$-1,700	-$5,403	16.9%	$-10,318 (vs do-nothing $-2,821)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-31 21:46