FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1299 @ $41.02

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.14 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1299 @ $41.02 UNDERWATER $2.98 (6.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

IREN reports 2026-08-27 (Thu), in 23 days. The recommended CC (17d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-27.

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.14 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$16,182/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$4,644/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-14,150	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,091/mo

HEDGE COVER
$4,644/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$16,182/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.0 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $49.14 (probe: $49C 17d) still earns $6,741/mo (42% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-3,881

Hole (after banked)

$18,031

was $14,150 · -27% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 47 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 72 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $66.27 (+62%) · daily UBB $44.58 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $49.14 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $50 21 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

81%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$3,440

Income / mo

$6,071

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.68/sh now → $4.73 mid-life (likely $4.90–$7.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,062 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 17, at $52 (overshoots $1.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.91/sh	+$1,821 cycle +$5,261 [+$988…+$2,312] · 99% credit	70% surv 56%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$51	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.62/sh	+$1,233 cycle +$4,673 [+$426…+$1,648] · 93% credit	71% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$52	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.10/sh	+$202 cycle +$3,642 [-$764…+$499] · 37% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$52	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.10/sh	+$202 cycle +$3,642 [-$764…+$499] · 37% credit	72% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$57	28 Aug 2026	16d left	-$1.57/sh	-$3,135 cycle +$305 [-$4,627…-$3,229] · 1% credit	79% surv 73%
budget: banked $3,440 debit $3,135 (91% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$305 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,870/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $55 21 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $55)

89%

Touch odds

23%

Per cycle

$1,880

Income / mo

$3,318

Buyback gross: $7.68/sh now → $5.44 mid-life (likely $4.67–$7.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.50/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 579 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 17, at $57 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$55	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$1.04/sh	+$2,085 cycle +$3,965 [+$1,543…+$3,366] · 99% credit	70% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$57	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.24/sh	+$476 cycle +$2,356 [-$213…+$1,526] · 67% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$57	28 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.24/sh	+$476 cycle +$2,356 [-$213…+$1,526] · 67% credit	72% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$59	28 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.42/sh	-$847 cycle +$1,033 [-$1,609…+$53] · 26% credit	75% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,880 debit $847 (45% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,033 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $18,808/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $58 7 Aug 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $58)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$20

Income / mo

$200

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$58	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.84/sh	+$5,674 cycle +$5,694	71% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$65	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.01/sh	+$12 cycle +$32	80% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$72	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.01/sh	+$2,017 cycle +$2,037	83% surv 79%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.875 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$14,226 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,232

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	3d	7 Aug 2026	$0.53	16/20	$8,480	$6,824	87%	89%	+$4,611	-$2,582	8.1%	$-3,568 (vs do-nothing +$1,664)
$46	3d	7 Aug 2026	$0.72	12/20	$8,640	$9,972	83%	86%	+$4,286	-$2,909	9.1%	$-4,956 (vs do-nothing +$276)
$48	10d	14 Aug 2026	$1.37	20/20	$8,220	$3,576	80%	84%	+$3,313	-$0	0.0%	$528 (vs do-nothing +$5,760)
$45	3d	7 Aug 2026	$0.97	9/20	$8,730	$12,303	78%	83%	+$3,951	-$2,857	8.9%	$-5,700 (vs do-nothing $-468)
$47	10d	14 Aug 2026	$1.59	17/20	$8,109	$5,706	77%	82%	+$2,979	-$942	2.9%	$-1,662 (vs do-nothing +$3,570)
$46	10d	14 Aug 2026	$1.85	15/20	$8,325	$7,416	74%	80%	+$2,790	-$1,941	6.1%	$-3,192 (vs do-nothing +$2,040)
$44	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.27	7/20	$8,890	$13,957	73%	80%	+$3,591	-$2,712	8.5%	$-6,086 (vs do-nothing $-854)
$46	17d	21 Aug 2026	$2.62	18/20	$8,322	$5,173	71%	78%	+$2,310	-$943	2.9%	$-1,398 (vs do-nothing +$3,834)
$45	10d	14 Aug 2026	$2.15	13/20	$8,385	$8,970	71%	78%	+$2,557	-$2,592	8.1%	$-4,374 (vs do-nothing +$858)
$46	24d	28 Aug 2026	$3.35	20/20	$8,375	$3,731	70%	78%	+$1,880	-$0	0.0%	$488 (vs do-nothing +$5,720)
$45	17d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	16/20	$8,471	$6,815	69%	77%	+$2,297	-$1,830	5.7%	$-2,816 (vs do-nothing +$2,416)
$45	24d	28 Aug 2026	$3.85	17/20	$8,181	$5,778	67%	76%	+$1,992	-$500	1.6%	$-1,220 (vs do-nothing +$4,012)
$44	10d	14 Aug 2026	$2.49	11/20	$8,217	$10,296	67%	76%	+$2,267	-$2,919	9.1%	$-5,232 (vs do-nothing +$0)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43	3d	7 Aug 2026	$1.62	5/20	$8,100	$14,661	66%	76%	+$2,847	-$2,262	7.1%	$-6,167 (vs do-nothing $-935)
$44	17d	21 Aug 2026	$2.94	16/20	$8,301	$6,645	65%	75%	+$1,195	-$3,526	11.0%	$-4,512 (vs do-nothing +$720)
$44	24d	28 Aug 2026	$4.05	16/20	$8,100	$6,444	65%	75%	+$1,583	-$1,750	5.5%	$-2,736 (vs do-nothing +$2,496)
$43	10d	14 Aug 2026	$2.89	10/20	$8,670	$11,496	63%	74%	+$2,192	-$3,254	10.2%	$-5,832 (vs do-nothing $-600)
$43	17d	21 Aug 2026	$3.80	13/20	$8,718	$9,303	62%	74%	+$2,096	-$3,047	9.5%	$-4,829 (vs do-nothing +$403)
$43	24d	28 Aug 2026	$4.50	15/20	$8,438	$7,529	62%	74%	+$1,618	-$2,466	7.7%	$-3,717 (vs do-nothing +$1,515)
$42	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.09	4/20	$8,360	$15,668	60%	73%	+$2,676	-$2,022	6.3%	$-6,192 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$42	24d	28 Aug 2026	$5.00	13/20	$8,125	$8,710	59%	73%	+$1,544	-$2,787	8.7%	$-4,569 (vs do-nothing +$663)
$42	17d	21 Aug 2026	$4.15	12/20	$8,788	$10,120	59%	72%	+$1,805	-$3,593	11.2%	$-5,640 (vs do-nothing $-408)
$42	10d	14 Aug 2026	$3.30	9/20	$8,910	$12,483	59%	72%	+$1,980	-$3,460	10.8%	$-6,303 (vs do-nothing $-1,071)
$41	24d	28 Aug 2026	$5.30	13/20	$8,612	$9,198	56%	71%	+$1,304	-$3,697	11.6%	$-5,479 (vs do-nothing $-247)
$41	17d	21 Aug 2026	$4.60	10/20	$8,118	$10,944	55%	71%	+$1,497	-$3,544	11.1%	$-6,122 (vs do-nothing $-890)
$41	10d	14 Aug 2026	$3.90	7/20	$8,190	$13,257	54%	70%	+$1,834	-$2,971	9.3%	$-6,345 (vs do-nothing $-1,113)
$41	3d	7 Aug 2026	$2.57	4/20	$10,280	$17,588	53%	70%	+$2,780	-$2,230	7.0%	$-6,400 (vs do-nothing $-1,168)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-04 21:40