FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1299 @ $40.23

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.36 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1299 @ $40.23 UNDERWATER $3.77 (8.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

IREN reports 2026-08-27 (Thu), in 22 days. The recommended CC (16d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-08-27.

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.36 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$13,556/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$4,792/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-15,900	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,778/mo

HEDGE COVER
$4,792/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$13,556/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
4.1 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $49.36 (probe: $49C 16d) still earns $4,612/mo (34% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-3,881

Hole (after banked)

$19,781

was $15,900 · -24% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 49 · %B 68 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $66.29 (+65%) · daily UBB $44.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $49.36 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $50 21 Aug 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

84%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$2,200

Income / mo

$4,125

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 16); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.87 mid-life (likely $3.83–$5.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 837 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 16, at $52 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$1.13/sh	+$2,259 cycle +$4,459 [+$1,771…+$2,780] · 100% credit	69% surv 56%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$52	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.37/sh	+$747 cycle +$2,947 [+$64…+$1,071] · 80% credit	71% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$53	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.01/sh	+$19 cycle +$2,219 [-$767…+$300] · 34% credit	72% surv 63%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$53	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.01/sh	+$19 cycle +$2,219 [-$767…+$300] · 34% credit	72% surv 63%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$56	28 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.89/sh	-$1,772 cycle +$428 [-$2,867…-$1,680] · 4% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $2,200 debit $1,772 (81% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$428 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $11,923/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $55 21 Aug 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $55)

91%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$1,100

Income / mo

$2,062

Buyback gross: $6.28/sh now → $4.45 mid-life (likely $3.57–$5.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 11 of 16, at $57 (overshoots $2.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$55	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$1.29/sh	+$2,585 cycle +$3,685 [+$2,372…+$3,919] · 100% credit	69% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$58	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.15/sh	+$296 cycle +$1,396 [-$261…+$1,340] · 63% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$58	28 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.15/sh	+$296 cycle +$1,396 [-$261…+$1,340] · 63% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$60	28 Aug 2026	15d left	-$0.34/sh	-$683 cycle +$417 [-$1,348…+$250] · 31% credit	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $1,100 debit $683 (62% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$417 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $16,439/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $58 7 Aug 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $58)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$20

Income / mo

$300

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$58	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.65/sh	+$5,296 cycle +$5,316	68% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$66	14 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.03/sh	+$57 cycle +$77	79% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$78	28 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.49/sh	+$981 cycle +$1,001	86% surv 84%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.865 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$15,782 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,033

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$45	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.34	14/20	$7,140	$5,048	85%	87%	+$1,881	-$5,625	17.6%	$-7,517 (vs do-nothing $-1,484)
$44	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.49	10/20	$7,350	$7,058	80%	83%	+$1,721	-$4,868	15.2%	$-7,943 (vs do-nothing $-1,910)
$46	9d	14 Aug 2026	$1.07	20/20	$7,133	$2,342	78%	82%	+$1,406	-$4,575	14.3%	$-4,693 (vs do-nothing +$1,340)
$45	9d	14 Aug 2026	$1.30	16/20	$6,933	$3,942	75%	79%	+$1,270	-$4,892	15.3%	$-6,193 (vs do-nothing $-160)
$46	16d	21 Aug 2026	$1.87	20/20	$7,012	$2,221	74%	79%	+$1,437	-$2,975	9.3%	$-3,093 (vs do-nothing +$2,940)
$43	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.70	7/20	$7,350	$8,408	74%	79%	+$1,505	-$3,960	12.4%	$-7,923 (vs do-nothing $-1,890)
$46	23d	28 Aug 2026	$2.60	20/20	$6,783	$1,991	72%	78%	+$911	-$1,515	4.7%	$-1,633 (vs do-nothing +$4,400)
$45	16d	21 Aug 2026	$2.14	17/20	$6,821	$3,380	72%	78%	+$1,296	-$3,770	11.8%	$-4,775 (vs do-nothing +$1,258)
$44	9d	14 Aug 2026	$1.55	14/20	$7,233	$5,142	71%	77%	+$1,144	-$5,331	16.7%	$-7,223 (vs do-nothing $-1,190)
$45	23d	28 Aug 2026	$2.97	18/20	$6,973	$3,081	70%	77%	+$1,036	-$2,498	7.8%	$-3,207 (vs do-nothing +$2,826)
$44	16d	21 Aug 2026	$2.40	16/20	$7,200	$4,208	68%	76%	+$1,154	-$4,732	14.8%	$-6,033 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$42	2d	7 Aug 2026	$0.96	5/20	$7,200	$9,158	67%	74%	+$1,111	-$3,199	10.0%	$-7,753 (vs do-nothing $-1,720)
$44	23d	28 Aug 2026	$3.15	17/20	$6,985	$3,543	67%	75%	+$734	-$3,753	11.7%	$-4,758 (vs do-nothing +$1,275)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43	9d	14 Aug 2026	$1.85	11/20	$6,783	$6,042	67%	75%	+$942	-$4,958	15.5%	$-7,738 (vs do-nothing $-1,705)
$43	16d	21 Aug 2026	$2.72	14/20	$7,140	$5,048	65%	74%	+$1,008	-$5,093	15.9%	$-6,985 (vs do-nothing $-952)
$43	23d	28 Aug 2026	$3.45	16/20	$7,200	$4,208	64%	74%	+$618	-$4,652	14.5%	$-5,953 (vs do-nothing +$80)
$42	9d	14 Aug 2026	$2.18	10/20	$7,267	$6,975	62%	72%	+$828	-$5,178	16.2%	$-8,253 (vs do-nothing $-2,220)
$42	16d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	13/20	$7,312	$5,671	62%	72%	+$736	-$5,665	17.7%	$-7,853 (vs do-nothing $-1,820)
$42	23d	28 Aug 2026	$3.80	14/20	$6,939	$4,847	62%	72%	+$509	-$4,981	15.6%	$-6,873 (vs do-nothing $-840)
$41	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.29	4/20	$7,740	$10,148	59%	70%	+$794	-$2,827	8.8%	$-7,677 (vs do-nothing $-1,644)
$41	23d	28 Aug 2026	$4.15	13/20	$7,037	$5,395	59%	71%	+$385	-$5,470	17.1%	$-7,658 (vs do-nothing $-1,625)
$41	16d	21 Aug 2026	$3.35	11/20	$6,909	$6,168	58%	70%	+$506	-$5,508	17.2%	$-8,288 (vs do-nothing $-2,255)
$41	9d	14 Aug 2026	$2.55	8/20	$6,800	$7,408	58%	70%	+$599	-$4,646	14.5%	$-8,313 (vs do-nothing $-2,280)
$40	23d	28 Aug 2026	$4.65	12/20	$7,278	$6,087	55%	69%	+$453	-$5,649	17.7%	$-8,133 (vs do-nothing $-2,100)
$40	16d	21 Aug 2026	$3.85	10/20	$7,219	$6,927	54%	68%	+$548	-$5,508	17.2%	$-8,583 (vs do-nothing $-2,550)
$40	9d	14 Aug 2026	$2.99	7/20	$6,977	$8,035	53%	67%	+$495	-$4,457	13.9%	$-8,420 (vs do-nothing $-2,387)
$39.50	16d	21 Aug 2026	$4.00	10/20	$7,500	$7,208	52%	67%	+$371	-$5,858	18.3%	$-8,933 (vs do-nothing $-2,900)
$39.50	9d	14 Aug 2026	$3.20	7/20	$7,467	$8,525	50%	66%	+$404	-$4,660	14.6%	$-8,623 (vs do-nothing $-2,590)
$40	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.67	3/20	$7,515	$10,373	50%	65%	+$283	-$2,306	7.2%	$-7,452 (vs do-nothing $-1,419)
$39.50	2d	7 Aug 2026	$1.90	3/20	$8,550	$11,408	45%	63%	+$120	-$2,387	7.5%	$-7,533 (vs do-nothing $-1,500)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-08-05 21:42