20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $50.84 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $8,229/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $3,918/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,050 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 4 Sep 2026 · 7d | 19 × $40 | 79% | $4,153 | $1,553 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $41 | 4 Sep | 7d | 11.0% | 84%hist 85% | 32%hist 31% | +2pp | $665 | $2,850 | -$1,303 | $18,029 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $41 11.0% OTM over spot $36.93 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.36 mid) = $665 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $41.37) 86% EV / mo +$958 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 34% whole by 9mo vs 32% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2,323/mo median; plan ~$-1,579/mo after 68% keep · $-19,570 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.7-4.4], measured ONLY among the 34% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,691 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $50 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.75/sh now → $1.24 mid-life (likely $1.13–$1.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.89/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 619 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $42 (overshoots $0.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $10 below CC-SS $50.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $41.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $50.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $41): -$18,029 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$653 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,343 (+$4,707 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,719 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,624, the opportunity cost of earning $2,850/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $40 | 4 Sep | 7d | 8.3% | 79%hist 84% | 44%hist 38% | +3pp | $918 | $3,934 | -$219 | $18,592 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $40 8.3% OTM over spot $36.93 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $918 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,934/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $40.53) 82% EV / mo +$1,089 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +3pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 29% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,950/mo median; plan ~$-1,326/mo after 68% keep · $-16,221 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.4-4.9], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,222 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $49 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $1.25–$1.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 954 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $41 (overshoots $0.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $11 below CC-SS $50.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $40.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $50.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $40): -$18,592 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$1,306 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,559 (+$3,491 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,719 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,840, the opportunity cost of earning $3,934/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $40 | 4 Sep | 7d | 8.3% | 79%hist 84% | 44%hist 38% | +2pp | $969 | $4,153 | — | $19,625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $40 8.3% OTM over spot $36.93 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.53 mid) = $969 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,153/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $40.53) 82% EV / mo +$1,149 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 33% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,937/mo median; plan ~$-1,317/mo after 68% keep · $-15,746 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.4-4.6], measured ONLY among the 33% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,290 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $49 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.68/sh now → $1.19 mid-life (likely $1.24–$1.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.51/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.68/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 989 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $41 (overshoots $0.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $11 below CC-SS $50.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.51 collected) or spot ≥ $40.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $50.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40): -$19,625 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$653 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,939 (+$3,111 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,719 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,220, the opportunity cost of earning $4,153/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $38 | 4 Sep | 7d | 2.9% | 63%hist 66% | 77%hist 65% | +8pp | $1,980 | $8,486 | +$4,333 | $23,698 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $38 2.9% OTM over spot $36.93 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.02 mid) = $1,980 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,486/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $39.02) 72% EV / mo +$1,200 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 35% whole by 9mo vs 28% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,364/mo median; plan ~$-928/mo after 68% keep · $-10,247 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.8 mo [1.6-5.0], measured ONLY among the 35% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 61% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$202 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $49 @ 93% POP 92% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.54/sh now → $1.09 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,817 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $39 (overshoots $0.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38 is $13 below CC-SS $50.84: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $39.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.84 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $50.84, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,050 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,388 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $38): -$23,698 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,359 ($-309 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-16,719 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,640, the opportunity cost of earning $8,486/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 14 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.841 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,388 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-16,719
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.51 | 19/20 | $4,153 | $301 | 79% | 82% | +$1,149 | -$19,625 | 61.3% | $-23,939 (vs do-nothing $-7,220) |
| $39 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.68 | 15/20 | $4,371 | $785 | 72% | 77% | +$737 | -$16,738 | 52.3% | $-23,664 (vs do-nothing $-6,945) |
| $39 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.13 | 17/20 | $4,116 | $397 | 67% | 74% | +$395 | -$18,205 | 56.9% | $-23,825 (vs do-nothing $-7,106) |
| $39 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.11 | 19/20 | $4,295 | $443 | 64% | 74% | +$741 | -$18,485 | 57.8% | $-22,799 (vs do-nothing $-6,080) |
| $38 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $0.99 | 10/20 | $4,243 | $989 | 63% | 72% | +$600 | -$11,849 | 37.0% | $-22,039 (vs do-nothing $-5,320) |
| $38 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.50 | 13/20 | $4,179 | $725 | 61% | 71% | +$369 | -$14,740 | 46.1% | $-22,972 (vs do-nothing $-6,253) |
| $38 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.45 | 16/20 | $4,200 | $547 | 60% | 71% | +$567 | -$16,622 | 51.9% | $-22,895 (vs do-nothing $-6,176) |
| $37.50 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.18 | 9/20 | $4,551 | $1,364 | 58% | 70% | +$567 | -$10,943 | 34.2% | $-21,786 (vs do-nothing $-5,067) |
| $37.50 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.68 | 12/20 | $4,320 | $933 | 57% | 69% | +$281 | -$13,991 | 43.7% | $-22,875 (vs do-nothing $-6,156) |
| $37 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $2.90 | 14/20 | $4,350 | $830 | 54% | 69% | +$525 | -$15,314 | 47.9% | $-22,893 (vs do-nothing $-6,174) |
| $37 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $1.92 | 10/20 | $4,114 | $860 | 53% | 67% | +$269 | -$11,919 | 37.2% | $-22,109 (vs do-nothing $-5,390) |
| $37 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.37 | 8/20 | $4,697 | $1,576 | 53% | 67% | +$378 | -$9,975 | 31.2% | $-21,471 (vs do-nothing $-4,752) |
| $36.50 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $2.06 | 10/20 | $4,414 | $1,160 | 50% | 65% | +$42 | -$12,279 | 38.4% | $-22,469 (vs do-nothing $-5,750) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $36.50 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $1.59 | 7/20 | $4,770 | $1,715 | 47% | 64% | +$233 | -$8,924 | 27.9% | $-21,073 (vs do-nothing $-4,354) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.