FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1782 @ $41.63

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $55.13 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1782 @ $41.63 UNDERWATER $2.37 (5.4% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $55.13 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $31.708/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.265/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.087/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$14,471/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$4,931/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-24,080	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,235/mo

HEDGE COVER
$4,931/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,471/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $55.13 (probe: $55C 17d) still earns $2,965/mo (20% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-4,655

Hole (after banked)

$28,735

was $24,080 · -19% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 46 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.99 (+59%) · daily UBB $52.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$8 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $55.13 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $56 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $56)

88%

Touch odds

25%

Per cycle

$1,200

Income / mo

$2,118

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$56	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.93/sh	+$1,858 cycle +$3,058 [+$1,272…+$2,927] · 100% credit	68% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$57	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.34/sh	+$673 cycle +$1,873 [-$75…+$1,555] · 72% credit	70% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$57	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.34/sh	+$673 cycle +$1,873 [-$75…+$1,555] · 72% credit	70% surv 59%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$24,296 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-17,000

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$47	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.44	17/20	$7,480	$4,817	85%	87%	+$2,521	-$13,069	40.8%	$-15,436 (vs do-nothing +$1,564)
$46.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.45	17/20	$7,650	$4,987	83%	85%	+$1,581	-$13,902	43.4%	$-16,269 (vs do-nothing +$731)
$46	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.57	13/20	$7,410	$7,771	81%	83%	+$1,762	-$11,125	34.8%	$-16,935 (vs do-nothing +$65)
$45.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.66	11/20	$7,260	$9,133	78%	81%	+$1,480	-$9,865	30.8%	$-17,396 (vs do-nothing $-396)
$48	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.33	19/20	$7,581	$3,406	77%	81%	+$929	-$11,016	34.4%	$-11,661 (vs do-nothing +$5,339)
$45	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.77	10/20	$7,700	$10,329	75%	79%	+$1,385	-$9,358	29.2%	$-17,750 (vs do-nothing $-750)
$47	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.30	19/20	$7,410	$3,235	74%	78%	$-617	-$12,973	40.5%	$-13,618 (vs do-nothing +$3,382)
$48	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.11	20/20	$7,447	$2,516	74%	78%	+$552	-$10,036	31.4%	$-9,820 (vs do-nothing +$7,180)
$44.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$0.88	9/20	$7,920	$11,305	72%	77%	+$1,134	-$8,773	27.4%	$-18,026 (vs do-nothing $-1,026)
$47	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.38	18/20	$7,560	$4,141	71%	77%	+$456	-$10,346	32.3%	$-11,852 (vs do-nothing +$5,148)
$46	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.65	15/20	$7,425	$6,274	71%	76%	$-174	-$11,217	35.1%	$-15,305 (vs do-nothing +$1,695)
$44	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.01	8/20	$8,080	$12,221	69%	75%	+$925	-$8,094	25.3%	$-18,208 (vs do-nothing $-1,208)
$45.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$1.47	17/20	$7,497	$4,834	69%	75%	$-1,910	-$13,868	43.3%	$-16,235 (vs do-nothing +$765)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$46	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.68	16/20	$7,567	$5,660	69%	76%	+$363	-$10,317	32.2%	$-13,544 (vs do-nothing +$3,456)
$45	17d	7 Aug 2026	$2.98	14/20	$7,362	$6,967	66%	74%	+$199	-$10,007	31.3%	$-14,956 (vs do-nothing +$2,044)
$43.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.13	7/20	$7,910	$12,807	66%	73%	+$533	-$7,348	23.0%	$-18,323 (vs do-nothing $-1,323)
$44.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.00	13/20	$7,800	$8,161	66%	73%	$-737	-$11,216	35.1%	$-17,026 (vs do-nothing $-26)
$44	10d	31 Jul 2026	$2.52	10/20	$7,560	$10,189	64%	72%	+$425	-$8,608	26.9%	$-17,000 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$44	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	13/20	$7,800	$8,161	63%	73%	+$270	-$10,046	31.4%	$-15,856 (vs do-nothing +$1,144)
$43	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.29	6/20	$7,740	$13,393	62%	71%	+$338	-$6,503	20.3%	$-18,338 (vs do-nothing $-1,338)
$43	24d	14 Aug 2026	$4.40	14/20	$7,700	$7,305	61%	72%	+$195	-$10,819	33.8%	$-15,768 (vs do-nothing +$1,232)
$43	17d	7 Aug 2026	$3.75	11/20	$7,279	$9,152	60%	71%	+$95	-$9,216	28.8%	$-16,747 (vs do-nothing +$253)
$42.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.48	5/20	$7,400	$13,809	59%	69%	+$228	-$5,574	17.4%	$-18,270 (vs do-nothing $-1,270)
$42	24d	14 Aug 2026	$4.80	13/20	$7,800	$8,161	58%	70%	+$122	-$10,826	33.8%	$-16,636 (vs do-nothing +$364)
$42	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.10	10/20	$7,235	$9,864	57%	69%	$-98	-$9,028	28.2%	$-17,420 (vs do-nothing $-420)
$42	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.66	5/20	$8,300	$14,709	55%	67%	+$15	-$5,734	17.9%	$-18,430 (vs do-nothing $-1,430)
$41	24d	14 Aug 2026	$5.25	12/20	$7,875	$8,992	55%	69%	+$84	-$10,653	33.3%	$-17,324 (vs do-nothing $-324)
$41	17d	7 Aug 2026	$4.60	9/20	$7,306	$10,691	54%	68%	$-74	-$8,575	26.8%	$-17,828 (vs do-nothing $-828)
$41.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.87	4/20	$7,480	$14,645	52%	65%	$-126	-$4,703	14.7%	$-18,260 (vs do-nothing $-1,260)
$41	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.08	4/20	$8,320	$15,485	48%	63%	$-353	-$4,819	15.1%	$-18,376 (vs do-nothing $-1,376)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 10:56