20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $55.62 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,882/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $4,931/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,080 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 24 Jul 2026 · 3d | 19 × $47.50 | 83% | $6,650 | $1,298 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 31 Jul 2026 · 10d | 17 × $48 | 74% | $6,783 | $-769 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $49 | 24 Jul | 3d | 15.4% | 89% | 23% | -29pp | $437 | $4,370 | -$2,280 | $12,146 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $49 15.4% OTM over spot $42.45 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.24 mid) = $437 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $49.24) 90% EV / mo +$786 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -29pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 89% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,555/mo median; plan ~$-1,057/mo after 68% keep · $-4,066 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,126 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $62 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.91/sh now → $1.35 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 461 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $51 (overshoots $2.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $7 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $49.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $49): -$12,146 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$910 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,426 (+$10,654 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$5,149, the opportunity cost of earning $4,370/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $48.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 14.3% | 87% | 26% | -32pp | $504 | $5,040 | -$1,610 | $12,317 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $48.50 14.3% OTM over spot $42.45 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $504 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $48.79) 88% EV / mo +$849 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -32pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 92% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-633/mo median; plan ~$-431/mo after 68% keep · $-914 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,890 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $61 @ 84% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.88/sh now → $1.33 mid-life (likely $1.29–$2.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 506 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $1.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48.50 is $7 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $48.79 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $48.50): -$12,317 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$1,821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,507 (+$9,573 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,068, the opportunity cost of earning $5,040/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 11.9% | 83% | 22% | -32pp | $665 | $6,650 | — | $14,768 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 11.9% OTM over spot $42.45 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid) = $665 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $47.88) 85% EV / mo +$41 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -32pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 88% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-994/mo median; plan ~$-676/mo after 68% keep · $-2,201 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,790 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.83/sh now → $1.29 mid-life (likely $1.39–$2.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.94/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 654 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $50 (overshoots $2.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $8 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.35 collected) or spot ≥ $47.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$14,768 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$910 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,048 (+$8,032 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,527, the opportunity cost of earning $6,650/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 3d | 7.2% | 73% | 56% | -29pp | $1,320 | $13,200 | +$6,550 | $18,926 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 7.2% OTM over spot $42.45 24 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.70 mid) = $1,320 credit for the 3d cycle → $13,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $46.20) 77% EV / mo $-1,343 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -29pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 90% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~5.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $70/mo median; plan ~$47/mo after 68% keep · $70 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,116 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.72/sh now → $1.22 mid-life (likely $1.47–$2.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,073 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $2.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $10 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $46.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$18,926 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,295 (+$4,785 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-720, the opportunity cost of earning $13,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $51 | 31 Jul | 10d | 20.1% | 82% | 38% | -32pp | $1,458 | $4,374 | -$2,409 | $6,863 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $51 20.1% OTM over spot $42.45 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.89 mid) = $1,458 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,374/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $51.88) 84% EV / mo +$109 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -32pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 90% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,163/mo median; plan ~$-791/mo after 68% keep · $-2,727 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,878 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $55 @ 72% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.97/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $3.68–$5.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 929 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $2.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $5 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $51.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $51): -$6,863 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$1,821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,053 (+$15,027 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$9,522, the opportunity cost of earning $4,374/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $50 | 31 Jul | 10d | 17.8% | 80% | 43% | -29pp | $1,700 | $5,100 | -$1,683 | $7,859 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $50 17.8% OTM over spot $42.45 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.04 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $51.05) 82% EV / mo +$207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -29pp 62% whole by 9mo vs 90% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-76/mo median; plan ~$-52/mo after 68% keep · $-164 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.3], measured ONLY among the 62% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,122 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $55 @ 74% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.75–$5.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,083 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $52 (overshoots $2.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $6 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $51.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $50): -$7,859 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$2,731 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,959 (+$13,121 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,616, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $48 | 31 Jul | 10d | 13.1% | 74% | 46% | -24pp | $2,261 | $6,783 | — | $10,698 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $48 13.1% OTM over spot $42.45 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.48 mid) = $2,261 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,783/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $49.48) 78% EV / mo $-739 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -24pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 84% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $225/mo median; plan ~$153/mo after 68% keep · $359 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 46% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,243 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $54 @ 76% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.57/sh now → $3.24 mid-life (likely $3.79–$5.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,372 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $50 (overshoots $2.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $8 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.33/sh (~25% of the $1.33 collected) or spot ≥ $49.48 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $48): -$10,698 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$2,731 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,798 (+$10,282 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,777, the opportunity cost of earning $6,783/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $44 | 31 Jul | 10d | 3.7% | 61% | 86% | -22pp | $4,536 | $13,608 | +$6,825 | $16,385 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 3.7% OTM over spot $42.45 31 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.59 mid) = $4,536 credit for the 10d cycle → $13,608/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $46.59) 70% EV / mo $-1,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -22pp 70% whole by 9mo vs 91% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~4.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,389/mo median; plan ~$945/mo after 68% keep · $2,599 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.9 mo [0.4-2.3], measured ONLY among the 70% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$642 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 7 Aug 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $3.95–$5.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.52/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,069 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $46 (overshoots $2.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $12 below CC-SS $55.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.63/sh (~25% of the $2.52 collected) or spot ≥ $46.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $52.48 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $55.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,080 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,711 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$16,385 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$1,821 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,575 (+$5,505 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-18,575 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-0, the opportunity cost of earning $13,608/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$23,711 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-18,575
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.35 | 19/20 | $6,650 | $2,475 | 83% | 85% | +$41 | -$14,768 | 46.2% | $-16,048 (vs do-nothing +$2,527) |
| $47 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.44 | 15/20 | $6,600 | $5,449 | 81% | 83% | +$275 | -$12,274 | 38.4% | $-17,195 (vs do-nothing +$1,380) |
| $46.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 15/20 | $6,750 | $5,599 | 79% | 81% | $-878 | -$13,009 | 40.7% | $-17,930 (vs do-nothing +$645) |
| $46 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.57 | 12/20 | $6,840 | $7,957 | 76% | 79% | $-479 | -$10,863 | 33.9% | $-18,515 (vs do-nothing +$60) |
| $48 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 17/20 | $6,783 | $4,120 | 74% | 78% | $-739 | -$10,698 | 33.4% | $-13,798 (vs do-nothing +$4,777) |
| $45.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 10/20 | $6,600 | $9,229 | 73% | 77% | $-671 | -$9,463 | 29.6% | $-18,935 (vs do-nothing $-360) |
| $48 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.11 | 18/20 | $6,702 | $3,283 | 71% | 76% | $-393 | -$9,923 | 31.0% | $-12,113 (vs do-nothing +$6,462) |
| $47 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.30 | 17/20 | $6,630 | $3,967 | 71% | 76% | $-1,884 | -$12,449 | 38.9% | $-15,549 (vs do-nothing +$3,026) |
| $45 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.77 | 9/20 | $6,930 | $10,315 | 70% | 75% | $-823 | -$8,868 | 27.7% | $-19,250 (vs do-nothing $-675) |
| $46.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 19/20 | $6,555 | $2,380 | 69% | 74% | $-4,095 | -$15,148 | 47.3% | $-16,428 (vs do-nothing +$2,147) |
| $47 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.38 | 16/20 | $6,720 | $4,813 | 69% | 75% | $-462 | -$9,989 | 31.2% | $-13,999 (vs do-nothing +$4,576) |
| $46 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 14/20 | $6,930 | $6,535 | 68% | 74% | $-1,404 | -$11,162 | 34.9% | $-16,993 (vs do-nothing +$1,582) |
| $44.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 8/20 | $7,040 | $11,181 | 67% | 73% | $-1,074 | -$8,194 | 25.6% | $-19,487 (vs do-nothing $-912) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 14/20 | $6,621 | $6,226 | 66% | 74% | $-510 | -$9,720 | 30.4% | $-15,551 (vs do-nothing +$3,024) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 15/20 | $6,615 | $5,464 | 66% | 72% | $-3,096 | -$12,979 | 40.6% | $-17,900 (vs do-nothing +$675) |
| $45 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 11/20 | $6,963 | $8,836 | 64% | 72% | $-768 | -$9,364 | 29.3% | $-17,926 (vs do-nothing +$649) |
| $44 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.01 | 7/20 | $7,070 | $11,967 | 64% | 70% | $-1,237 | -$7,429 | 23.2% | $-19,632 (vs do-nothing $-1,057) |
| $45 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.98 | 13/20 | $6,836 | $7,197 | 63% | 72% | $-651 | -$9,936 | 31.0% | $-16,677 (vs do-nothing +$1,898) |
| $45 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 14/20 | $6,475 | $6,080 | 63% | 72% | $-336 | -$9,692 | 30.3% | $-15,523 (vs do-nothing +$3,052) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 11/20 | $6,600 | $8,473 | 62% | 70% | $-1,780 | -$10,035 | 31.4% | $-18,597 (vs do-nothing $-22) |
| $44 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.60 | 15/20 | $6,750 | $5,599 | 61% | 70% | $-1,296 | -$12,034 | 37.6% | $-16,955 (vs do-nothing +$1,620) |
| $44 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 9/20 | $6,804 | $10,189 | 61% | 70% | $-614 | -$8,193 | 25.6% | $-18,575 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
| $44 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.40 | 11/20 | $6,600 | $8,473 | 61% | 70% | $-536 | -$9,045 | 28.3% | $-17,607 (vs do-nothing +$968) |
| $43.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 6/20 | $6,780 | $12,433 | 60% | 68% | $-1,498 | -$6,596 | 20.6% | $-19,709 (vs do-nothing $-1,134) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 10/20 | $6,450 | $9,079 | 59% | 69% | $-2,452 | -$9,973 | 31.2% | $-19,445 (vs do-nothing $-870) |
| $43 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.40 | 12/20 | $6,600 | $7,717 | 58% | 70% | $-482 | -$9,867 | 30.8% | $-17,519 (vs do-nothing +$1,056) |
| $43 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.75 | 10/20 | $6,618 | $9,247 | 58% | 68% | $-661 | -$8,873 | 27.7% | $-18,345 (vs do-nothing +$230) |
| $43 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 8/20 | $6,696 | $10,837 | 57% | 67% | $-982 | -$7,866 | 24.6% | $-19,159 (vs do-nothing $-584) |
| $43 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 5/20 | $6,450 | $12,859 | 57% | 66% | $-1,519 | -$5,666 | 17.7% | $-19,690 (vs do-nothing $-1,115) |
| $42 | 24d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 11/20 | $6,600 | $8,473 | 56% | 68% | $-528 | -$9,705 | 30.3% | $-18,267 (vs do-nothing +$308) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 8/20 | $7,200 | $11,341 | 55% | 67% | $-1,063 | -$8,098 | 25.3% | $-19,391 (vs do-nothing $-816) |
| $42 | 17d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 9/20 | $6,512 | $9,897 | 55% | 67% | $-809 | -$8,571 | 26.8% | $-18,953 (vs do-nothing $-378) |
| $42 | 10d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 7/20 | $6,825 | $11,722 | 53% | 66% | $-942 | -$7,261 | 22.7% | $-19,464 (vs do-nothing $-889) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 5/20 | $7,400 | $13,809 | 53% | 64% | $-1,749 | -$5,821 | 18.2% | $-19,845 (vs do-nothing $-1,270) |
| $42 | 3d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.66 | 4/20 | $6,640 | $13,805 | 49% | 61% | $-1,711 | -$4,785 | 15.0% | $-19,719 (vs do-nothing $-1,144) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.