FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1782 @ $35.55

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $47.65 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1782 @ $35.55 UNDERWATER $8.45 (19.2% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $47.65 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $31.708/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.265/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.087/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$14,294/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$5,925/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-20,100	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,147/mo

HEDGE COVER
$5,925/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,294/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $56,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $47.65 (probe: $48C 17d) still earns $3,353/mo (23% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-4,619

Hole (after banked)

$24,719

was $20,100 · -23% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,913

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $51C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$0.96	$1,913	2026-07-22

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 21 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 16 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $46.88 (+32%) · daily UBB $45.89 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $47.65 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 20 × $48 14 Aug 2026 (17d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $48)

89%

Touch odds

23%

Per cycle

$1,900

Income / mo

$3,353

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$47	21 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.90/sh	+$1,803 cycle +$3,703 [+$873…+$3,164] · 95% credit	71% surv 55%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$48	21 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.09/sh	-$187 cycle +$1,713 [-$1,530…+$1,109] · 41% credit	70% surv 56%

🛡 Safer · sell 20 × $49 31 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $49)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$100

Income / mo

$1,000

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$49	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$2.04/sh	+$4,081 cycle +$4,181	70% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$54	7 Aug 2026	8d left	+$0.06/sh	+$120 cycle +$220	80% surv 72%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$62	21 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$185 cycle +$285	83% surv 80%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (53 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 53 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.805 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,485 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,060

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.37	20/20	$7,400	$1,475	95%	95%	+$6,308	-$8,565	26.8%	$-9,180 (vs do-nothing $-3,120)
$42.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.38	19/20	$7,220	$1,574	94%	95%	+$5,856	-$9,068	28.3%	$-9,955 (vs do-nothing $-3,895)
$42	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.50	15/20	$7,500	$2,970	91%	93%	+$5,640	-$7,729	24.2%	$-9,705 (vs do-nothing $-3,645)
$41.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.53	14/20	$7,420	$3,169	91%	92%	+$5,718	-$7,871	24.6%	$-10,120 (vs do-nothing $-4,060)
$41	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.66	11/20	$7,260	$3,846	88%	90%	+$5,088	-$6,592	20.6%	$-9,657 (vs do-nothing $-3,597)
$40.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.72	10/20	$7,200	$4,065	86%	89%	+$4,727	-$6,432	20.1%	$-9,770 (vs do-nothing $-3,710)
$40	3d	31 Jul 2026	$0.88	9/20	$7,920	$5,064	83%	87%	+$5,148	-$6,095	19.0%	$-9,705 (vs do-nothing $-3,645)
$42	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.34	18/20	$7,236	$1,869	81%	85%	+$3,417	-$7,762	24.3%	$-8,922 (vs do-nothing $-2,862)
$39.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.00	8/20	$8,000	$5,423	81%	86%	+$4,950	-$5,722	17.9%	$-9,604 (vs do-nothing $-3,544)
$39	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.13	7/20	$7,910	$5,612	78%	84%	+$4,627	-$5,266	16.5%	$-9,420 (vs do-nothing $-3,360)
$41	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.57	16/20	$7,536	$2,727	78%	83%	+$3,226	-$8,132	25.4%	$-9,836 (vs do-nothing $-3,776)
$38.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.28	6/20	$7,680	$5,661	75%	83%	+$4,240	-$4,723	14.8%	$-9,150 (vs do-nothing $-3,090)
$41	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.29	18/20	$7,274	$1,907	74%	81%	+$2,522	-$7,852	24.5%	$-9,012 (vs do-nothing $-2,952)

Show 40 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$40	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.83	14/20	$7,686	$3,435	74%	81%	+$2,942	-$8,151	25.5%	$-10,400 (vs do-nothing $-4,340)
$39.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$1.79	14/20	$7,518	$3,267	72%	80%	+$2,217	-$8,907	27.8%	$-11,156 (vs do-nothing $-5,096)
$41	24d	21 Aug 2026	$2.92	20/20	$7,300	$1,375	72%	79%	+$1,620	-$7,465	23.3%	$-8,080 (vs do-nothing $-2,020)
$38	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.47	5/20	$7,350	$5,610	72%	81%	+$3,871	-$4,091	12.8%	$-8,790 (vs do-nothing $-2,730)
$40	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.19	19/20	$7,343	$1,697	71%	78%	+$1,428	-$10,379	32.4%	$-11,266 (vs do-nothing $-5,206)
$39	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.25	11/20	$7,425	$4,011	70%	79%	+$2,783	-$7,043	22.0%	$-10,108 (vs do-nothing $-4,048)
$39.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$2.29	18/20	$7,274	$1,907	70%	78%	+$1,200	-$10,552	33.0%	$-11,712 (vs do-nothing $-5,652)
$39.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.00	20/20	$7,500	$1,575	68%	77%	+$751	-$10,305	32.2%	$-10,920 (vs do-nothing $-4,860)
$37.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.65	5/20	$8,250	$6,510	68%	79%	+$4,057	-$4,251	13.3%	$-8,950 (vs do-nothing $-2,890)
$39	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.00	14/20	$7,412	$3,161	68%	78%	+$2,297	-$7,913	24.7%	$-10,162 (vs do-nothing $-4,102)
$38.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.42	10/20	$7,260	$4,125	68%	77%	+$2,569	-$6,732	21.0%	$-10,070 (vs do-nothing $-4,010)
$39	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	16/20	$7,300	$2,491	67%	76%	+$1,587	-$8,004	25.0%	$-9,708 (vs do-nothing $-3,648)
$38.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.05	14/20	$7,535	$3,284	66%	76%	+$2,006	-$8,543	26.7%	$-10,792 (vs do-nothing $-4,732)
$38	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.62	10/20	$7,860	$4,725	66%	76%	+$2,658	-$7,032	22.0%	$-10,370 (vs do-nothing $-4,310)
$38.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.30	18/20	$7,425	$2,058	66%	75%	+$986	-$10,534	32.9%	$-11,694 (vs do-nothing $-5,634)
$38	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.25	13/20	$7,456	$3,484	65%	75%	+$1,912	-$8,323	26.0%	$-10,844 (vs do-nothing $-4,784)
$37	3d	31 Jul 2026	$1.87	4/20	$7,480	$6,019	64%	77%	+$3,468	-$3,513	11.0%	$-8,484 (vs do-nothing $-2,424)
$38	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.80	16/20	$7,600	$2,791	64%	75%	+$1,501	-$9,364	29.3%	$-11,068 (vs do-nothing $-5,008)
$37.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$2.80	9/20	$7,560	$4,704	64%	75%	+$2,384	-$6,617	20.7%	$-10,227 (vs do-nothing $-4,167)
$37.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.55	12/20	$7,518	$3,825	63%	75%	+$1,999	-$7,923	24.8%	$-10,716 (vs do-nothing $-4,656)
$37.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$3.80	16/20	$7,600	$2,791	63%	75%	+$1,107	-$10,164	31.8%	$-11,868 (vs do-nothing $-5,808)
$37	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	8/20	$7,200	$4,623	61%	74%	+$2,126	-$6,122	19.1%	$-10,004 (vs do-nothing $-3,944)
$37	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.15	14/20	$7,262	$3,011	61%	74%	+$1,220	-$9,103	28.4%	$-11,352 (vs do-nothing $-5,292)
$37	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.80	11/20	$7,376	$3,962	61%	74%	+$1,930	-$7,538	23.6%	$-10,603 (vs do-nothing $-4,543)
$36.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.07	4/20	$8,280	$6,819	60%	76%	+$3,518	-$3,633	11.4%	$-8,604 (vs do-nothing $-2,544)
$36.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.10	14/20	$7,175	$2,924	60%	73%	+$755	-$9,873	30.9%	$-12,122 (vs do-nothing $-6,062)
$36.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$3.25	13/20	$7,456	$3,484	59%	72%	+$534	-$10,273	32.1%	$-12,794 (vs do-nothing $-6,734)
$36.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.25	8/20	$7,800	$5,223	59%	73%	+$2,220	-$6,322	19.8%	$-10,204 (vs do-nothing $-4,144)
$36	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.65	13/20	$7,556	$3,584	58%	73%	+$1,229	-$9,103	28.4%	$-11,624 (vs do-nothing $-5,564)
$36	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.15	10/20	$7,324	$4,189	57%	72%	+$1,606	-$7,502	23.4%	$-10,840 (vs do-nothing $-4,780)
$36	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.40	8/20	$8,160	$5,583	57%	72%	+$2,039	-$6,602	20.6%	$-10,484 (vs do-nothing $-4,424)
$35.50	24d	21 Aug 2026	$4.75	13/20	$7,719	$3,747	57%	72%	+$1,010	-$9,623	30.1%	$-12,144 (vs do-nothing $-6,084)
$36	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.31	4/20	$9,240	$7,779	56%	74%	+$3,630	-$3,737	11.7%	$-8,708 (vs do-nothing $-2,648)
$35.50	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.10	10/20	$7,235	$4,100	56%	72%	+$1,104	-$8,052	25.2%	$-11,390 (vs do-nothing $-5,330)
$35	24d	21 Aug 2026	$5.60	11/20	$7,700	$4,286	55%	71%	+$1,687	-$7,758	24.2%	$-10,823 (vs do-nothing $-4,763)
$35.50	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.50	7/20	$7,350	$5,052	54%	71%	+$1,492	-$6,057	18.9%	$-10,211 (vs do-nothing $-4,151)
$35	17d	14 Aug 2026	$4.65	9/20	$7,385	$4,529	54%	71%	+$1,477	-$7,202	22.5%	$-10,812 (vs do-nothing $-4,752)
$35.50	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.60	3/20	$7,800	$6,618	52%	73%	+$2,881	-$2,866	9.0%	$-8,109 (vs do-nothing $-2,049)
$35	10d	7 Aug 2026	$3.70	7/20	$7,770	$5,472	52%	70%	+$1,379	-$6,267	19.6%	$-10,421 (vs do-nothing $-4,361)
$35	3d	31 Jul 2026	$2.88	3/20	$8,640	$7,458	48%	71%	+$2,934	-$2,932	9.2%	$-8,175 (vs do-nothing $-2,115)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-28 11:53