20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $47.37 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,471/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $5,925/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-19,660 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $51C 31 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.96 | $1,913 | 2026-07-22 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 31 Jul 2026 · 3d | 20 × $43 | 93% | $7,400 | $5,512 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 7 Aug 2026 · 10d | 18 × $42 | 79% | $7,236 | $-716 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $44.50 | 31 Jul | 3d | 25.4% | 96%hist 100% | 8%hist 1% | -7pp | $480 | $4,800 | -$2,600 | $5,264 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $44.50 25.4% OTM over spot $35.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.26 mid) = $480 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $44.76) 97% EV / mo +$4,097 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -7pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~0.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-3,276/mo median; plan ~$-2,227/mo after 68% keep · $-19,080 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-2.2], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,834 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $58 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.76/sh now → $2.66 mid-life (likely $2.23–$4.05) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 125 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $46 (overshoots $1.62). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44.50 is $3 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.24 collected) or spot ≥ $44.76 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44.50): -$5,264 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,810 (+$13,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-380, the opportunity cost of earning $4,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $43 | 31 Jul | 3d | 21.1% | 93%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | -2pp | $629 | $6,290 | -$1,110 | $6,804 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 21.1% OTM over spot $35.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid) = $629 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,290/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $43.38) 94% EV / mo +$4,927 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.3/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,325/mo median; plan ~$-901/mo after 68% keep · $-3,937 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.5-2.8], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,678 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $56 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.58/sh now → $2.53 mid-life (likely $2.33–$4.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 220 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $45 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $4 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $43.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$6,804 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$733 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,082 (+$11,578 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,652, the opportunity cost of earning $6,290/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $43 | 31 Jul | 3d | 21.1% | 93%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | -1pp | $740 | $7,400 | — | $8,004 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 21.1% OTM over spot $35.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.39 mid) = $740 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $43.38) 94% EV / mo +$5,796 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,402/mo median; plan ~$-953/mo after 68% keep · $-4,512 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.2 mo [0.5-3.3], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,327 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $56 @ 87% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.58/sh now → $2.53 mid-life (likely $2.22–$4.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 230 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $45 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $4 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $43.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$8,004 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,550 (+$11,110 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,120, the opportunity cost of earning $7,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $42 | 31 Jul | 3d | 18.3% | 91%hist 100% | 18%hist 5% | +1pp | $1,000 | $10,000 | +$2,600 | $9,744 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42 18.3% OTM over spot $35.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.53 mid) = $1,000 credit for the 3d cycle → $10,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $42.53) 93% EV / mo +$7,593 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +1pp 53% whole by 9mo vs 52% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-721/mo median; plan ~$-490/mo after 68% keep · $-2,281 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.5], measured ONLY among the 53% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,905 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $56 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.47/sh now → $2.45 mid-life (likely $2.34–$4.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 342 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $44 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $5 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.50 collected) or spot ≥ $42.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42): -$9,744 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,290 (+$9,370 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,860, the opportunity cost of earning $10,000/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $40 | 31 Jul | 3d | 12.7% | 83%hist 99% | 35%hist 18% | +6pp | $1,496 | $14,960 | +$7,560 | $11,037 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $40 12.7% OTM over spot $35.50 31 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.91 mid) = $1,496 credit for the 3d cycle → $14,960/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $40.91) 87% EV / mo +$9,601 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +6pp 67% whole by 9mo vs 61% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,170/mo median; plan ~$796/mo after 68% keep · $1,549 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 67% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,404 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $54 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.24/sh now → $2.29 mid-life (likely $2.34–$4.37) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.88/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 706 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $42 (overshoots $1.77). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $7 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.88 collected) or spot ≥ $40.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $40): -$11,037 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$733 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,315 (+$7,345 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,885, the opportunity cost of earning $14,960/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 18 × $44 | 7 Aug | 10d | 23.9% | 84%hist 99% | 34%hist 18% | -7pp | $1,674 | $5,022 | -$2,214 | $4,396 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 23.9% OTM over spot $35.50 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.02 mid) = $1,674 credit for the 10d cycle → $5,022/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.02) 86% EV / mo +$1,669 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -7pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 62% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2,873/mo median; plan ~$-1,954/mo after 68% keep · $-13,105 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.5-2.4], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,272 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $50 @ 78% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.45/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $3.72–$5.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 671 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $46 (overshoots $1.78). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $3 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.93 collected) or spot ≥ $45.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$4,396 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$488 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,430 (+$14,230 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $5,022/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 15 × $42 | 7 Aug | 10d | 18.3% | 79%hist 96% | 45%hist 28% | -2pp | $2,010 | $6,030 | -$1,206 | $6,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $42 18.3% OTM over spot $35.50 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.50 mid) = $2,010 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,030/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $43.50) 83% EV / mo +$1,877 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -2pp 56% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,789/mo median; plan ~$-1,217/mo after 68% keep · $-6,785 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.1], measured ONLY among the 56% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,412 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.11/sh now → $3.61 mid-life (likely $3.75–$5.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,016 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $5 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $43.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $42): -$6,048 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $44): -$1,221 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,815 (+$11,845 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,385, the opportunity cost of earning $6,030/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $42 | 7 Aug | 10d | 18.3% | 79%hist 96% | 45%hist 28% | -3pp | $2,412 | $7,236 | — | $7,258 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $42 18.3% OTM over spot $35.50 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $1.50 mid) = $2,412 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,236/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $43.50) 83% EV / mo +$2,252 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -3pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 60% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.8/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,921/mo median; plan ~$-1,306/mo after 68% keep · $-7,570 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~0.8 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,095 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.11/sh now → $3.61 mid-life (likely $3.79–$5.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,043 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $5 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $43.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $42): -$7,258 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$488 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,292 (+$11,368 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,862, the opportunity cost of earning $7,236/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $38.50 | 7 Aug | 10d | 8.5% | 68%hist 80% | 69%hist 51% | +2pp | $4,840 | $14,520 | +$7,284 | $12,904 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $38.50 8.5% OTM over spot $35.50 7 Aug 2026 (10d, $2.51 mid) = $4,840 credit for the 10d cycle → $14,520/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38.50) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $41.02) 78% EV / mo +$5,248 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,241/mo median; plan ~$-844/mo after 68% keep · $-6,716 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.0 mo [0.4-2.2], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 54% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,567 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $52 @ 90% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.53/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $4.00–$5.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.42/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,623 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $40 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38.50 is $9 below CC-SS $47.37: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.42 collected) or spot ≥ $41.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.89 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.37, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-19,660 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$19,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $38.50): -$12,904 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,450 (+$6,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,430 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,020, the opportunity cost of earning $14,520/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 52 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.805 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$19,114 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,430
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.37 | 20/20 | $7,400 | $1,475 | 93% | 94% | +$5,796 | -$8,004 | 25.0% | $-8,550 (vs do-nothing $-3,120) |
| $42.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 20/20 | $7,600 | $1,675 | 92% | 93% | +$5,555 | -$8,984 | 28.1% | $-9,530 (vs do-nothing $-4,100) |
| $42 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.50 | 15/20 | $7,500 | $2,970 | 91% | 93% | +$5,695 | -$7,308 | 22.8% | $-9,075 (vs do-nothing $-3,645) |
| $41.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 14/20 | $7,420 | $3,169 | 89% | 91% | +$5,133 | -$7,479 | 23.4% | $-9,490 (vs do-nothing $-4,060) |
| $41 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.66 | 11/20 | $7,260 | $3,846 | 88% | 90% | +$5,009 | -$6,283 | 19.6% | $-9,027 (vs do-nothing $-3,597) |
| $40.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 11/20 | $7,920 | $4,506 | 86% | 89% | +$5,271 | -$6,767 | 21.1% | $-9,511 (vs do-nothing $-4,081) |
| $40 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $0.88 | 9/20 | $7,920 | $5,064 | 83% | 87% | +$5,083 | -$5,843 | 18.3% | $-9,075 (vs do-nothing $-3,645) |
| $39.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 8/20 | $8,000 | $5,423 | 81% | 86% | +$4,899 | -$5,498 | 17.2% | $-8,974 (vs do-nothing $-3,544) |
| $42 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 18/20 | $7,236 | $1,869 | 79% | 83% | +$2,252 | -$7,258 | 22.7% | $-8,292 (vs do-nothing $-2,862) |
| $39 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 7/20 | $7,910 | $5,612 | 78% | 84% | +$4,595 | -$5,070 | 15.8% | $-8,790 (vs do-nothing $-3,360) |
| $41 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.57 | 16/20 | $7,536 | $2,727 | 76% | 81% | +$2,172 | -$7,684 | 24.0% | $-9,206 (vs do-nothing $-3,776) |
| $38.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 6/20 | $7,680 | $5,661 | 75% | 83% | +$4,316 | -$4,555 | 14.2% | $-8,520 (vs do-nothing $-3,090) |
| $40 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.83 | 14/20 | $7,686 | $3,435 | 74% | 81% | +$3,004 | -$7,759 | 24.2% | $-9,770 (vs do-nothing $-4,340) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 18/20 | $7,274 | $1,907 | 73% | 79% | +$1,237 | -$7,348 | 23.0% | $-8,382 (vs do-nothing $-2,952) |
| $41 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.92 | 20/20 | $7,300 | $1,375 | 73% | 79% | +$2,209 | -$6,904 | 21.6% | $-7,450 (vs do-nothing $-2,020) |
| $39.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.79 | 14/20 | $7,518 | $3,267 | 72% | 80% | +$2,284 | -$8,515 | 26.6% | $-10,526 (vs do-nothing $-5,096) |
| $38 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 5/20 | $7,350 | $5,610 | 72% | 81% | +$3,944 | -$3,951 | 12.3% | $-8,160 (vs do-nothing $-2,730) |
| $40 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.19 | 19/20 | $7,343 | $1,697 | 70% | 77% | +$79 | -$9,846 | 30.8% | $-10,636 (vs do-nothing $-5,206) |
| $39 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.25 | 11/20 | $7,425 | $4,011 | 70% | 79% | +$2,840 | -$6,734 | 21.0% | $-9,478 (vs do-nothing $-4,048) |
| $40 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.10 | 19/20 | $7,362 | $1,716 | 70% | 78% | +$1,824 | -$8,117 | 25.4% | $-8,907 (vs do-nothing $-3,477) |
| $39.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.29 | 18/20 | $7,274 | $1,907 | 69% | 76% | $-67 | -$10,048 | 31.4% | $-11,082 (vs do-nothing $-5,652) |
| $39.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 20/20 | $7,500 | $1,575 | 69% | 78% | +$1,269 | -$9,744 | 30.5% | $-10,290 (vs do-nothing $-4,860) |
| $37.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.65 | 5/20 | $8,250 | $6,510 | 68% | 79% | +$4,141 | -$4,111 | 12.8% | $-8,320 (vs do-nothing $-2,890) |
| $38.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.42 | 10/20 | $7,260 | $4,125 | 68% | 78% | +$2,624 | -$6,452 | 20.2% | $-9,440 (vs do-nothing $-4,010) |
| $39 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 14/20 | $7,412 | $3,161 | 68% | 76% | +$1,325 | -$7,521 | 23.5% | $-9,532 (vs do-nothing $-4,102) |
| $39 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 16/20 | $7,300 | $2,491 | 67% | 77% | +$1,977 | -$7,556 | 23.6% | $-9,078 (vs do-nothing $-3,648) |
| $38 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.62 | 10/20 | $7,860 | $4,725 | 66% | 77% | +$2,718 | -$6,752 | 21.1% | $-9,740 (vs do-nothing $-4,310) |
| $38.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 14/20 | $7,535 | $3,284 | 66% | 75% | +$1,050 | -$8,151 | 25.5% | $-10,162 (vs do-nothing $-4,732) |
| $38.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 18/20 | $7,425 | $2,058 | 66% | 75% | +$1,036 | -$10,030 | 31.3% | $-11,064 (vs do-nothing $-5,634) |
| $37 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 4/20 | $7,480 | $6,019 | 65% | 78% | +$3,544 | -$3,401 | 10.6% | $-7,854 (vs do-nothing $-2,424) |
| $38 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.25 | 13/20 | $7,456 | $3,484 | 65% | 74% | +$1,044 | -$7,959 | 24.9% | $-10,214 (vs do-nothing $-4,784) |
| $38 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 16/20 | $7,600 | $2,791 | 64% | 75% | +$1,547 | -$8,916 | 27.9% | $-10,438 (vs do-nothing $-5,008) |
| $37.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 9/20 | $7,560 | $4,704 | 64% | 75% | +$2,441 | -$6,365 | 19.9% | $-9,597 (vs do-nothing $-4,167) |
| $37.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 12/20 | $7,518 | $3,825 | 63% | 74% | +$1,219 | -$7,587 | 23.7% | $-10,086 (vs do-nothing $-4,656) |
| $37.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 16/20 | $7,600 | $2,791 | 63% | 75% | +$1,155 | -$9,716 | 30.4% | $-11,238 (vs do-nothing $-5,808) |
| $37 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 14/20 | $7,262 | $3,011 | 62% | 73% | +$477 | -$8,711 | 27.2% | $-10,722 (vs do-nothing $-5,292) |
| $37 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 9/20 | $8,100 | $5,244 | 62% | 74% | +$2,453 | -$6,635 | 20.7% | $-9,867 (vs do-nothing $-4,437) |
| $37 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 11/20 | $7,376 | $3,962 | 61% | 73% | +$1,237 | -$7,229 | 22.6% | $-9,973 (vs do-nothing $-4,543) |
| $36.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 4/20 | $8,280 | $6,819 | 61% | 76% | +$3,603 | -$3,521 | 11.0% | $-7,974 (vs do-nothing $-2,544) |
| $36.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 15/20 | $7,688 | $3,157 | 60% | 72% | +$48 | -$10,158 | 31.7% | $-11,925 (vs do-nothing $-6,495) |
| $36.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.25 | 13/20 | $7,456 | $3,484 | 60% | 71% | $-254 | -$9,909 | 31.0% | $-12,164 (vs do-nothing $-6,734) |
| $36 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 13/20 | $7,556 | $3,584 | 59% | 72% | +$601 | -$8,739 | 27.3% | $-10,994 (vs do-nothing $-5,564) |
| $36 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.15 | 10/20 | $7,324 | $4,189 | 58% | 71% | +$1,025 | -$7,222 | 22.6% | $-10,210 (vs do-nothing $-4,780) |
| $35.50 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 13/20 | $7,719 | $3,747 | 57% | 72% | +$416 | -$9,259 | 28.9% | $-11,514 (vs do-nothing $-6,084) |
| $36 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 4/20 | $9,240 | $7,779 | 57% | 74% | +$3,725 | -$3,625 | 11.3% | $-8,078 (vs do-nothing $-2,648) |
| $35.50 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $7,235 | $4,100 | 56% | 71% | +$552 | -$7,772 | 24.3% | $-10,760 (vs do-nothing $-5,330) |
| $35 | 24d | 21 Aug 2026 | $5.60 | 11/20 | $7,700 | $4,286 | 56% | 71% | +$1,214 | -$7,449 | 23.3% | $-10,193 (vs do-nothing $-4,763) |
| $35.50 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 7/20 | $7,350 | $5,052 | 55% | 71% | +$1,548 | -$5,861 | 18.3% | $-9,581 (vs do-nothing $-4,151) |
| $35 | 17d | 14 Aug 2026 | $4.65 | 9/20 | $7,385 | $4,529 | 54% | 70% | +$1,008 | -$6,950 | 21.7% | $-10,182 (vs do-nothing $-4,752) |
| $35.50 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 3/20 | $7,800 | $6,618 | 53% | 73% | +$2,960 | -$2,782 | 8.7% | $-7,479 (vs do-nothing $-2,049) |
| $35 | 10d | 7 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 7/20 | $7,770 | $5,472 | 52% | 70% | +$1,438 | -$6,071 | 19.0% | $-9,791 (vs do-nothing $-4,361) |
| $35 | 3d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.88 | 3/20 | $8,640 | $7,458 | 48% | 71% | +$3,021 | -$2,848 | 8.9% | $-7,545 (vs do-nothing $-2,115) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.