FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25-1782 @ $33.47

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.04 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25-1782 @ $33.47 UNDERWATER $10.53 (23.9% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.04 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $31.708/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.265/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.087/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$56,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000
Normal income ref	$14,600/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$6,731/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-25,800	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,300/mo

HEDGE COVER
$6,731/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $32,000

ML VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $56,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $49.04 (probe: $49C 15d) brings only $520/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-16; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-16

$-4,619

Hole (after banked)

$30,419

was $25,800 · -18% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,913

? 1 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $51C 31 Jul 2026	U6241782	$0.96	$1,913	2026-07-22

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 20 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $46.75 (+40%) · daily UBB $45.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 18 contracts at $39 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,300/mo); it brings $7,493/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $36/8d for $15,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 18 × $41/8d (86% survival, $4,860/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $16,074 (50% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $44, recoverable in 1.1 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-23,337 and cuts bleed by $6,058/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 18 × $39, 80% survival, $7,493/mo (E[net] $999/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	18 × $39	80%	$7,493	$999

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,998 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $5,130 to close and taking $1,745 back from the best priced door (net cash $3,385) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $999/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $39 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $7,493/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $40 rung (cover hedge) lifts survival to 84% (breach 20% → 16%) for $593/mo less (8% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

IREN spot $33.47 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

33% normal

18 × $41

7 Aug

22.5%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+1pp

$1,296

$4,860

-$2,633

$13,176

Sell 18 × $41 22.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.78 mid)

= $1,296 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,860/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $41)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $41.78)

88%

EV / mo

+$2,265

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+1pp

38% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.7/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-4,203/mo

median; plan ~$-2,858/mo after 68% keep · $-36,126 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.7-2.5], measured ONLY among the 38% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,205

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.32/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $2.85–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 650 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.04/sh	+$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%	-$11,025 NOT cap gain +$14,775
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit	78% surv 70%	-$4,742 NOT cap gain +$21,058
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.13/sh	+$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit	74% surv 64%	-$8,826 NOT cap gain +$16,974
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit	80% surv 74%	-$3,589 NOT cap gain +$22,211
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.52/sh	-$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit	82% surv 78%	-$1,987 NOT cap gain +$23,813
budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,860/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$-1,559/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $41 is $8 below CC-SS $49.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$13,176
… as % of IC ($32,000)	41.2%
… as % of ML ($56,000)	23.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.9 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-23,328

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $41.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.59	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-41.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $41.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.00 (1.1σ)	$1,296	$-12,902	+$12,898	-$108
+2.5%	$42.02 (1.3σ)	$-549	$-13,189	+$12,611	-$1,953
+5%	$43.05 (1.4σ)	$-2,394	$-13,476	+$12,324	-$3,798
SS (= V-bounce)	$44.00 (1.6σ)	$-4,104	$-13,742	+$12,058	-$5,508

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,666

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$13,176

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$852

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,162 (+$9,638 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,508, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

cover hedge

20 × $40

7 Aug

19.5%

84%hist 99%

35%hist 18%

+2pp

$1,840

$6,900

-$593

$16,240

Sell 20 × $40 19.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.96 mid)

= $1,840 credit for the 8d cycle → $6,900/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $40)

84%

Breach risk

16%

POP (stays ≤ $40.96)

86%

EV / mo

+$3,169

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+2pp

43% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-3,649/mo

median; plan ~$-2,481/mo after 68% keep · $-28,375 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.6 mo [0.9-3.6], measured ONLY among the 43% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

26%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,065

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$49 @ 83% POP

78% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.17/sh now → $2.95 mid-life (likely $2.85–$4.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 793 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $42 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$40	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.01/sh	+$2,012 cycle +$3,852 [+$1,314…+$2,843] · 98% credit	69% surv 55%	-$12,022 NOT cap gain +$13,778
Max even-money escape in the band	~$45	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.43/sh	+$864 cycle +$2,704 [-$154…+$1,556] · 70% credit	78% surv 70%	-$5,525 NOT cap gain +$20,275
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$43	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.09/sh	+$179 cycle +$2,019 [-$739…+$647] · 46% credit	74% surv 64%	-$10,009 NOT cap gain +$15,791
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$49	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.58/sh	-$1,170 cycle +$670 [-$2,608…-$705] · 14% credit	83% surv 78%	-$2,239 NOT cap gain +$23,561
budget: banked $1,840 debit $1,170 (64% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$670 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $7,891/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$6,900/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-5%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	47% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$169/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $40 is $9 below CC-SS $49.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,240
… as % of IC ($32,000)	50.7%
… as % of ML ($56,000)	29.0%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-25,880

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.92 collected) or spot ≥ $40.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $39.60	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $40-40.96	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $40.96	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$40.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,840	$-14,034	+$11,766	+$280
+2.5%	$41.00 (1.1σ)	$-160	$-14,514	+$11,286	-$1,720
+5%	$42.00 (1.3σ)	$-2,160	$-14,994	+$10,806	-$3,720
SS (= V-bounce)	$44.00 (1.6σ)	$-6,160	$-15,954	+$9,846	-$7,720

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,666

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$16,240

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,374 (+$7,426 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,720, the opportunity cost of earning $6,900/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

🎯 50% normal

18 × $39

7 Aug

16.5%

80%hist 99%

42%hist 28%

+4pp

$1,998

$7,493

—

$16,074

Sell 18 × $39 16.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.18 mid)

= $1,998 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,493/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $39)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $40.17)

84%

EV / mo

+$3,147

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+4pp

45% whole by 9mo vs 42% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-3,504/mo

median; plan ~$-2,383/mo after 68% keep · $-28,528 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.8-3.3], measured ONLY among the 45% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,132

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$39	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%	-$13,495 NOT cap gain +$12,305
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$44	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit	77% surv 70%	-$7,434 NOT cap gain +$18,366
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit	78% surv 71%	-$6,963 NOT cap gain +$18,837
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$42	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.05/sh	+$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit	74% surv 65%	-$11,301 NOT cap gain +$14,499
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.06/sh	-$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit	85% surv 83%	-$2,242 NOT cap gain +$23,558
budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,493/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$1,074/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $39 is $10 below CC-SS $49.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$16,074
… as % of IC ($32,000)	50.2%
… as % of ML ($56,000)	28.7%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.1 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-23,337

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $40.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $38.61	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $39-40.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $40.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$39.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,998	$-15,240	+$10,560	+$594
+2.5%	$39.97 (≤1σ, normal week)	$243	$-15,513	+$10,287	-$1,161
+5%	$40.95 (1.1σ)	$-1,512	$-15,786	+$10,014	-$2,916
SS (= V-bounce)	$44.00 (1.6σ)	$-7,002	$-16,640	+$9,160	-$8,406

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,666

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $39): -$16,074

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$852

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,060 (+$6,740 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,406, the opportunity cost of earning $7,493/mo FIGHT income now)

▸

100% normal

20 × $36

7 Aug

7.6%

68%hist 80%

70%hist 51%

+8pp

$4,000

$15,000

+$7,507

$22,080

Sell 20 × $36 7.6% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.05 mid)

= $4,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $36)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $38.05)

77%

EV / mo

+$4,826

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+8pp

49% whole by 9mo vs 41% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~4.9/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-2,625/mo

median; plan ~$-1,785/mo after 68% keep · $-18,594 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.7 mo [0.8-3.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,105

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$52 @ 91% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $3.24–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,674 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $38 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$36	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.86/sh	+$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit	69% surv 55%	-$16,227 NOT cap gain +$9,573
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$39	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit	75% surv 65%	-$12,323 NOT cap gain +$13,477
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$38	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit	74% surv 64%	-$14,452 NOT cap gain +$11,348
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit	79% surv 72%	-$10,040 NOT cap gain +$15,760
SS $44 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.81/sh	-$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634]	91% surv 91%	+$2,030 SAFE cap gain +$27,830
budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,269/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $36 is $13 below CC-SS $49.04: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$22,080
… as % of IC ($32,000)	69.0%
… as % of ML ($56,000)	39.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.5 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-25,910

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $38.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $35.64	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $36-38.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $38.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.76 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$36.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,000	$-17,954	+$7,846	+$2,440
+2.5%	$36.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,200	$-18,386	+$7,414	+$640
+5%	$37.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$400	$-18,818	+$6,982	-$1,160
SS (= V-bounce)	$44.00 (1.6σ)	$-12,000	$-21,794	+$4,006	-$13,560

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.04, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,800

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$23,666

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $36): -$22,080

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,214 (+$1,586 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,654 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,560, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IREN are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (32 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.760 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$23,666 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,654

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$39	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	18/20	$7,493	$1,074	80%	84%	+$3,147	-$16,074	50.2%	$-19,060 (vs do-nothing $-8,406)
$38	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.35	15/20	$7,594	$1,643	77%	82%	+$2,922	-$14,535	45.4%	$-18,799 (vs do-nothing $-8,145)
$37.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.49	14/20	$7,822	$2,028	75%	81%	+$2,879	-$14,070	44.0%	$-18,760 (vs do-nothing $-8,106)
$38	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.10	18/20	$7,560	$1,141	73%	79%	+$2,100	-$16,092	50.3%	$-19,078 (vs do-nothing $-8,424)
$38.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.70	20/20	$7,364	$633	73%	80%	+$2,275	-$15,680	49.0%	$-17,814 (vs do-nothing $-7,160)
$37	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.65	12/20	$7,425	$1,942	72%	79%	+$2,629	-$12,468	39.0%	$-18,010 (vs do-nothing $-7,356)
$38	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.85	19/20	$7,384	$809	71%	79%	+$2,189	-$15,561	48.6%	$-18,121 (vs do-nothing $-7,467)
$36.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.81	11/20	$7,466	$2,139	70%	78%	+$2,501	-$11,803	36.9%	$-17,771 (vs do-nothing $-7,117)
$37	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.38	16/20	$7,616	$1,509	69%	77%	+$1,891	-$15,456	48.3%	$-19,294 (vs do-nothing $-8,640)
$37	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.75	20/20	$7,500	$769	68%	77%	+$1,194	-$18,580	58.1%	$-20,714 (vs do-nothing $-10,060)
$36	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	10/20	$7,500	$2,329	68%	77%	+$2,413	-$11,040	34.5%	$-17,434 (vs do-nothing $-6,780)
$36.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.97	19/20	$7,486	$911	68%	75%	+$114	-$20,083	62.8%	$-22,643 (vs do-nothing $-11,989)
$36	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	14/20	$7,560	$1,765	66%	75%	+$1,676	-$14,476	45.2%	$-19,166 (vs do-nothing $-8,512)

Show 19 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$35.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.14	10/20	$8,025	$2,854	65%	76%	+$2,573	-$11,400	35.6%	$-17,794 (vs do-nothing $-7,140)
$36	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.45	16/20	$7,527	$1,421	65%	75%	+$1,729	-$15,344	47.9%	$-19,182 (vs do-nothing $-8,528)
$35.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.97	13/20	$7,722	$2,083	64%	74%	+$1,810	-$13,741	42.9%	$-18,857 (vs do-nothing $-8,203)
$35.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	15/20	$7,466	$1,515	63%	75%	+$1,645	-$14,835	46.4%	$-19,099 (vs do-nothing $-8,445)
$35	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	9/20	$7,931	$2,916	63%	74%	+$2,163	-$10,521	32.9%	$-17,341 (vs do-nothing $-6,687)
$35	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.15	12/20	$7,560	$2,077	62%	74%	+$1,662	-$13,068	40.8%	$-18,610 (vs do-nothing $-7,956)
$35	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.90	14/20	$7,445	$1,651	62%	74%	+$1,634	-$14,196	44.4%	$-18,886 (vs do-nothing $-8,232)
$34.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.05	14/20	$7,732	$1,937	60%	73%	+$1,520	-$14,686	45.9%	$-19,376 (vs do-nothing $-8,722)
$34.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.54	8/20	$7,620	$2,761	60%	73%	+$1,889	-$9,600	30.0%	$-16,846 (vs do-nothing $-6,192)
$34.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.20	12/20	$7,680	$2,197	60%	73%	+$1,388	-$13,608	42.5%	$-19,150 (vs do-nothing $-8,496)
$34	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.30	13/20	$7,623	$1,984	58%	72%	+$1,464	-$13,962	43.6%	$-19,078 (vs do-nothing $-8,424)
$34	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.60	11/20	$7,920	$2,593	58%	72%	+$1,628	-$12,584	39.3%	$-18,552 (vs do-nothing $-7,898)
$34	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.78	8/20	$8,340	$3,481	57%	71%	+$1,954	-$9,808	30.6%	$-17,054 (vs do-nothing $-6,400)
$33.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.55	12/20	$7,445	$1,963	57%	72%	+$1,382	-$13,188	41.2%	$-18,730 (vs do-nothing $-8,076)
$33.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.65	10/20	$7,300	$2,129	56%	71%	+$1,140	-$11,890	37.2%	$-18,284 (vs do-nothing $-7,630)
$33	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	15/20	$7,466	$1,515	55%	69%	$-609	-$18,585	58.1%	$-22,849 (vs do-nothing $-12,195)
$33.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	7/20	$7,875	$3,172	54%	70%	+$1,669	-$8,778	27.4%	$-16,450 (vs do-nothing $-5,796)
$33	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.90	13/20	$7,540	$1,901	53%	68%	$-1,090	-$17,082	53.4%	$-22,198 (vs do-nothing $-11,544)
$33	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	6/20	$7,425	$2,878	52%	69%	+$1,535	-$7,644	23.9%	$-15,742 (vs do-nothing $-5,088)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39