20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $49.67 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $56,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $14,200/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $5,155/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 14 Aug 2026 · 8d | 20 × $43 | 81% | $7,200 | $1,786 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $45 | 14 Aug | 8d | 20.6% | 87%hist 95% | 27%hist 18% | -7pp | $1,254 | $4,702 | -$2,497 | $7,615 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 20.6% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.70 mid) = $1,254 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,702/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $45.70) 89% EV / mo +$2,395 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -7pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 65% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.2/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-2,144/mo median; plan ~$-1,458/mo after 68% keep · $-7,217 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,211 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $54 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.06/sh now → $2.88 mid-life (likely $2.66–$4.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 582 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $1.74). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $5 below CC-SS $49.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $45.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,324 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$7,615 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$421 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-9,211 (+$12,289 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,591 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$380, the opportunity cost of earning $4,702/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $44 | 14 Aug | 8d | 17.9% | 85%hist 95% | 32%hist 22% | -6pp | $1,386 | $5,198 | -$2,002 | $8,816 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 17.9% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.83 mid) = $1,386 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,198/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $44.84) 87% EV / mo +$2,348 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -6pp 52% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~1.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,949/mo median; plan ~$-1,325/mo after 68% keep · $-11,061 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.2], measured ONLY among the 52% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 24% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,623 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $53 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.93/sh now → $2.78 mid-life (likely $2.64–$4.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.01/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 720 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $46 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $6 below CC-SS $49.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.77 collected) or spot ≥ $44.84 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,324 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$8,816 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$842 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,833 (+$10,667 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,242, the opportunity cost of earning $5,198/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $43 | 14 Aug | 8d | 15.2% | 81%hist 95% | 39%hist 22% | -5pp | $1,920 | $7,200 | — | $11,415 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 15.2% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.03 mid) = $1,920 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $44.03) 85% EV / mo +$3,083 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -5pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 64% doing nothing · roll costs eat the credits at this rung FIRE DRILLS ~2.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,697/mo median; plan ~$-1,154/mo after 68% keep · $-5,424 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.3 mo [0.6-2.9], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,461 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $53 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.80/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.96/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 861 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $45 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $7 below CC-SS $49.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.96 collected) or spot ≥ $44.03 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,324 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$11,415 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,591 (+$8,909 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,000, the opportunity cost of earning $7,200/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $39.50 | 14 Aug | 8d | 5.8% | 66%hist 78% | 72%hist 59% | -1pp | $3,960 | $14,850 | +$7,650 | $16,375 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $39.50 5.8% OTM over spot $37.32 14 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.07 mid) = $3,960 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,850/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $39.50) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $41.57) 76% EV / mo +$4,877 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -1pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~4.4/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-413/mo median; plan ~$-281/mo after 68% keep · $-1,439 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.7-2.3], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 58% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$798 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $55 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.36/sh now → $2.38 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,729 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $1.47). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $39.50 is $10 below CC-SS $49.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $41.57 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $43.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $49.67, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,324 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $39.50): -$16,375 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,551 (+$3,949 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,591 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,960, the opportunity cost of earning $14,850/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.823 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,324 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,591
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $0.96 | 20/20 | $7,200 | $2,045 | 81% | 85% | +$3,083 | -$11,415 | 35.7% | $-12,591 (vs do-nothing $-3,000) |
| $42 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 16/20 | $7,560 | $3,573 | 78% | 83% | +$3,292 | -$10,252 | 32.0% | $-13,111 (vs do-nothing $-3,520) |
| $42 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 18/20 | $7,128 | $2,557 | 74% | 80% | +$2,507 | -$10,238 | 32.0% | $-12,255 (vs do-nothing $-2,664) |
| $41 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.48 | 13/20 | $7,215 | $4,104 | 73% | 80% | +$2,740 | -$9,344 | 29.2% | $-13,465 (vs do-nothing $-3,874) |
| $42 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 19/20 | $7,255 | $2,392 | 71% | 78% | +$2,045 | -$9,249 | 28.9% | $-10,845 (vs do-nothing $-1,254) |
| $41 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.37 | 15/20 | $7,110 | $3,415 | 70% | 78% | +$2,488 | -$9,447 | 29.5% | $-12,726 (vs do-nothing $-3,135) |
| $40 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.80 | 11/20 | $7,425 | $4,898 | 69% | 77% | +$2,568 | -$8,654 | 27.0% | $-13,617 (vs do-nothing $-4,026) |
| $41 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 18/20 | $7,364 | $2,793 | 68% | 77% | +$1,713 | -$10,202 | 31.9% | $-12,219 (vs do-nothing $-2,628) |
| $40 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.66 | 14/20 | $7,448 | $4,045 | 66% | 76% | +$2,291 | -$9,811 | 30.7% | $-13,511 (vs do-nothing $-3,920) |
| $39.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.98 | 10/20 | $7,425 | $5,190 | 66% | 76% | +$2,438 | -$8,188 | 25.6% | $-13,571 (vs do-nothing $-3,980) |
| $40 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 16/20 | $7,200 | $3,213 | 65% | 75% | +$1,462 | -$10,188 | 31.8% | $-13,047 (vs do-nothing $-3,456) |
| $39.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.85 | 13/20 | $7,410 | $4,299 | 64% | 75% | +$1,890 | -$9,513 | 29.7% | $-13,634 (vs do-nothing $-4,043) |
| $39 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.19 | 9/20 | $7,391 | $5,448 | 63% | 75% | +$2,334 | -$7,630 | 23.8% | $-13,434 (vs do-nothing $-3,843) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $39 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $7,200 | $4,381 | 62% | 74% | +$1,669 | -$9,201 | 28.8% | $-13,743 (vs do-nothing $-4,152) |
| $39 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.65 | 15/20 | $7,466 | $3,771 | 62% | 73% | +$1,336 | -$10,527 | 32.9% | $-13,806 (vs do-nothing $-4,215) |
| $38.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.40 | 8/20 | $7,200 | $5,549 | 61% | 74% | +$2,147 | -$7,014 | 21.9% | $-13,239 (vs do-nothing $-3,648) |
| $38.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $7,560 | $4,741 | 60% | 72% | +$1,565 | -$9,621 | 30.1% | $-14,163 (vs do-nothing $-4,572) |
| $38 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.05 | 13/20 | $7,180 | $4,069 | 58% | 72% | +$1,144 | -$9,903 | 30.9% | $-14,024 (vs do-nothing $-4,433) |
| $38 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $7,370 | $4,843 | 58% | 71% | +$1,421 | -$9,149 | 28.6% | $-14,112 (vs do-nothing $-4,521) |
| $38 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.61 | 8/20 | $7,830 | $6,179 | 58% | 72% | +$2,165 | -$7,246 | 22.6% | $-13,471 (vs do-nothing $-3,880) |
| $37.50 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $7,100 | $4,865 | 56% | 71% | +$1,255 | -$8,618 | 26.9% | $-14,001 (vs do-nothing $-4,410) |
| $37 | 22d | 28 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 11/20 | $7,125 | $4,598 | 55% | 71% | +$1,342 | -$8,709 | 27.2% | $-13,672 (vs do-nothing $-4,081) |
| $37.50 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.80 | 7/20 | $7,350 | $5,991 | 55% | 71% | +$1,810 | -$6,557 | 20.5% | $-13,203 (vs do-nothing $-3,612) |
| $37 | 15d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $7,600 | $5,365 | 53% | 70% | +$1,291 | -$8,868 | 27.7% | $-14,251 (vs do-nothing $-4,660) |
| $37 | 8d | 14 Aug 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $7,875 | $6,516 | 51% | 70% | +$1,701 | -$6,767 | 21.1% | $-13,413 (vs do-nothing $-3,822) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.