40 contracts (4,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.00 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $112,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 4000 |
| Normal income ref | $31,875/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $8,160/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-25,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 40 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 37 × $47 | 91% | $16,095 | $5,462 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 35 × $47 | 78% | $16,333 | $3,257 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 37 × $49 | 10 Jul | 2d | 19.8% | 95% | 10% | $555 | $8,325 | -$7,770 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $49 19.8% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.20 mid) = $555 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,325/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $49.20) 95% EV / mo +$5,434 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.2-1.3] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 95% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,797 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,505 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.70/sh now → $1.91 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 139 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $49 is at/above CC-SS $48.00: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $49.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $49): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,923 (+$23,777 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,699, the opportunity cost of earning $8,325/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 37 × $48 | 10 Jul | 2d | 17.3% | 93% | 14% | $703 | $10,545 | -$5,550 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $48 17.3% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $703 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,545/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $48.23) 94% EV / mo +$6,060 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $272 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,159 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.62/sh now → $1.85 mid-life (likely $1.96–$4.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 218 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $2.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $48 is at/above CC-SS $48.00: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.19 collected) or spot ≥ $48.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $48): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,923 (+$23,777 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,699, the opportunity cost of earning $10,545/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 37 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 14.9% | 91% | 11% | $1,073 | $16,095 | — | $2,626 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $47 14.9% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $1,073 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,095/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.33) 92% EV / mo +$9,079 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,669 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,594 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 86% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 319 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $1 below CC-SS $48.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $47.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $47): -$2,626 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,549 (+$21,151 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,073, the opportunity cost of earning $16,095/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 40 × $46 | 10 Jul | 2d | 12.4% | 90% | 20% | $1,720 | $25,800 | +$9,705 | $6,279 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $46 12.4% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.46 mid) = $1,720 credit for the 2d cycle → $25,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $46.47) 92% EV / mo +$19,231 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,047 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,278 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.75 mid-life (likely $1.90–$3.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.43/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 427 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $2 below CC-SS $48.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.43 collected) or spot ≥ $46.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $46): -$6,279 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,902 (+$17,798 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,280, the opportunity cost of earning $25,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 36 × $45 | 10 Jul | 2d | 10.0% | 86% | 30% | $2,160 | $32,400 | +$16,305 | $8,639 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $45 10.0% OTM over spot $40.91 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.65 mid) = $2,160 credit for the 2d cycle → $32,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $45.65) 89% EV / mo +$21,842 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,901 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,952 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.40/sh now → $1.70 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 673 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $3 below CC-SS $48.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $45.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $45): -$8,639 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $44): -$400 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,662 (+$15,038 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,040, the opportunity cost of earning $32,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 36 × $51 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.7% | 88% | 25% | $2,484 | $8,280 | -$8,053 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 36 × $51 24.7% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.75 mid) = $2,484 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,280/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $51.75) 89% EV / mo +$3,668 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-591 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,489 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 36 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.09/sh now → $3.60 mid-life (likely $3.27–$5.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.69/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 619 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $51 is at/above CC-SS $48.00: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.69 collected) or spot ≥ $51.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (36 × $51): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $44): -$400 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,023 (+$23,677 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,599, the opportunity cost of earning $8,280/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 39 × $50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 22.2% | 86% | 29% | $3,237 | $10,790 | -$5,543 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $50 22.2% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.90 mid) = $3,237 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,790/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $50.90) 88% EV / mo +$4,544 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,013 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,428 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.95/sh now → $3.50 mid-life (likely $3.52–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $2.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $50 is at/above CC-SS $48.00: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $50.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$100 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,723 (+$23,977 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,899, the opportunity cost of earning $10,790/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $47 | 17 Jul | 9d | 14.9% | 78% | 35% | $4,900 | $16,333 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $47 14.9% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.47 mid) = $4,900 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $48.47) 82% EV / mo +$5,534 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,187 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,340 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.54/sh now → $3.21 mid-life (likely $3.51–$5.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,047 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $47 is at/above CC-SS $48.00: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $48.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $47): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $44): -$500 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,123 (+$23,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$3,499, the opportunity cost of earning $16,333/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 37 × $43 | 17 Jul | 9d | 5.1% | 63% | 79% | $9,805 | $32,683 | +$16,350 | $8,694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 37 × $43 5.1% OTM over spot $40.91 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.71 mid) = $9,805 credit for the 9d cycle → $32,683/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $45.72) 74% EV / mo +$7,411 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 87% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,726 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$695 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 37 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $3.76–$5.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,897 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $5 below CC-SS $48.00: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.66/sh (~25% of the $2.65 collected) or spot ≥ $45.72 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-25,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,077 − CC assignment net of premium (37 × $43): -$8,694 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $44): -$300 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-10,617 (+$15,083 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,622 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,995, the opportunity cost of earning $32,683/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.849 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,077 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,622
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.29 | 37/40 | $16,095 | $9,622 | 91% | 92% | +$9,079 | -$2,626 | 4.1% | $-4,549 (vs do-nothing +$1,073) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.43 | 25/40 | $16,125 | $16,402 | 90% | 92% | +$12,019 | -$3,924 | 6.1% | $-7,047 (vs do-nothing $-1,425) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.60 | 18/40 | $16,200 | $20,415 | 86% | 89% | +$10,921 | -$4,320 | 6.7% | $-8,142 (vs do-nothing $-2,520) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.67 | 16/40 | $16,080 | $21,420 | 83% | 87% | +$9,915 | -$4,528 | 7.1% | $-8,550 (vs do-nothing $-2,928) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 13/40 | $16,380 | $23,408 | 79% | 85% | +$9,872 | -$4,108 | 6.4% | $-8,430 (vs do-nothing $-2,808) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 35/40 | $16,333 | $10,986 | 78% | 82% | +$5,534 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-722 (vs do-nothing +$4,900) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.95 | 12/40 | $17,100 | $24,690 | 76% | 83% | +$9,385 | -$4,260 | 6.7% | $-8,682 (vs do-nothing $-3,060) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 30/40 | $16,400 | $13,865 | 75% | 80% | +$4,987 | -$1,079 | 1.7% | $-3,702 (vs do-nothing +$1,920) |
| $47 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 38/40 | $15,960 | $8,925 | 74% | 80% | +$4,436 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,890 (vs do-nothing +$8,512) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 10/40 | $16,650 | $25,365 | 72% | 81% | +$8,487 | -$3,890 | 6.1% | $-8,512 (vs do-nothing $-2,890) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 34/40 | $16,065 | $11,280 | 72% | 79% | +$4,195 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-454 (vs do-nothing +$5,168) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.96 | 25/40 | $16,333 | $16,611 | 71% | 78% | +$4,685 | -$2,599 | 4.1% | $-5,722 (vs do-nothing $-100) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.83 | 31/40 | $16,449 | $13,352 | 69% | 77% | +$4,014 | -$526 | 0.8% | $-3,049 (vs do-nothing +$2,573) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 22/40 | $16,647 | $18,612 | 67% | 76% | +$4,187 | -$3,805 | 5.9% | $-7,228 (vs do-nothing $-1,606) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 9/40 | $17,415 | $26,692 | 67% | 78% | +$8,194 | -$3,789 | 5.9% | $-8,511 (vs do-nothing $-2,889) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.97 | 29/40 | $16,149 | $14,177 | 67% | 76% | +$3,690 | -$1,536 | 2.4% | $-4,259 (vs do-nothing +$1,363) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 29/40 | $16,312 | $14,340 | 66% | 75% | +$2,976 | -$2,899 | 4.5% | $-5,622 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 28/40 | $16,275 | $14,865 | 64% | 74% | +$2,500 | -$3,919 | 6.1% | $-6,742 (vs do-nothing $-1,120) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.65 | 19/40 | $16,783 | $20,436 | 63% | 74% | +$3,806 | -$4,465 | 7.0% | $-8,187 (vs do-nothing $-2,565) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 8/40 | $18,000 | $27,840 | 63% | 76% | +$7,830 | -$3,600 | 5.6% | $-8,422 (vs do-nothing $-2,800) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 26/40 | $16,331 | $16,046 | 63% | 73% | +$2,657 | -$4,289 | 6.7% | $-7,312 (vs do-nothing $-1,690) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 25/40 | $16,406 | $16,684 | 61% | 73% | +$2,360 | -$4,999 | 7.8% | $-8,122 (vs do-nothing $-2,500) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 23/40 | $16,172 | $17,574 | 59% | 72% | +$2,376 | -$5,174 | 8.1% | $-8,497 (vs do-nothing $-2,875) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 16/40 | $16,000 | $21,340 | 59% | 72% | +$2,928 | -$4,800 | 7.5% | $-8,822 (vs do-nothing $-3,200) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 7/40 | $18,060 | $28,462 | 58% | 74% | +$7,143 | -$3,346 | 5.2% | $-8,268 (vs do-nothing $-2,646) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 22/40 | $16,294 | $18,259 | 57% | 71% | +$2,218 | -$5,609 | 8.8% | $-9,032 (vs do-nothing $-3,410) |
| $41 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 20/40 | $15,938 | $19,028 | 56% | 70% | +$2,300 | -$5,500 | 8.6% | $-9,122 (vs do-nothing $-3,500) |
| $41 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 14/40 | $16,100 | $22,565 | 55% | 69% | +$2,536 | -$4,970 | 7.8% | $-9,192 (vs do-nothing $-3,570) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 20/40 | $16,688 | $19,778 | 54% | 70% | +$2,165 | -$6,100 | 9.5% | $-9,722 (vs do-nothing $-4,100) |
| $41 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 6/40 | $18,000 | $28,965 | 53% | 70% | +$4,791 | -$3,000 | 4.7% | $-8,022 (vs do-nothing $-2,400) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 5/40 | $16,800 | $28,328 | 49% | 68% | +$3,858 | -$2,630 | 4.1% | $-7,752 (vs do-nothing $-2,130) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 40 contracts at the conservative CC.