40 contracts (4,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $47.57 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $112,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 4000 |
| Normal income ref | $32,250/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $8,280/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-21,700 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 40 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 39 × $48.50 | 94% | $16,380 | $8,261 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 35 × $48 | 79% | $16,333 | $3,623 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 33 × $50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 19.5% | 97% | 7% | $561 | $8,415 | -$7,965 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $50 19.5% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.18 mid) = $561 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $50.19) 97% EV / mo +$7,118 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~1.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $448 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,757 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.71/sh now → $1.91 mid-life (likely $1.93–$3.61) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 109 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $52 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $50 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.17 collected) or spot ≥ $50.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $44): -$87 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,710 (+$19,990 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$410, the opportunity cost of earning $8,415/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 40 × $49.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 18.4% | 96% | 9% | $720 | $10,800 | -$5,580 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $49.50 18.4% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.23 mid) = $720 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $49.73) 96% EV / mo +$8,710 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-108 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 5% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,830 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.67/sh now → $1.89 mid-life (likely $1.84–$3.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 146 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $49.50 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $49.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $49.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,623 (+$20,077 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$497, the opportunity cost of earning $10,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $48.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.0% | 94% | 8% | $1,092 | $16,380 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $48.50 16.0% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.32 mid) = $1,092 credit for the 2d cycle → $16,380/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48.50) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.81) 95% EV / mo +$12,790 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.9] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,118 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,062 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 227 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $48.50 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.28 collected) or spot ≥ $48.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $48.50): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,636 (+$20,064 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$485, the opportunity cost of earning $16,380/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 40 × $47.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.6% | 91% | 19% | $1,560 | $23,400 | +$7,020 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $47.50 13.6% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.43 mid) = $1,560 credit for the 2d cycle → $23,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.93) 92% EV / mo +$16,984 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 98% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,599 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,566 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 348 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $47.50 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $47.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $47.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,623 (+$20,077 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$497, the opportunity cost of earning $23,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $46.50 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 87% | 27% | $2,160 | $32,400 | +$16,020 | $2,137 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $46.50 11.2% OTM over spot $41.83 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.58 mid) = $2,160 credit for the 2d cycle → $32,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46.50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $47.09) 89% EV / mo +$21,431 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,149 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,758 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.45/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.89–$3.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 477 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46.50 is $1 below CC-SS $47.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.54 collected) or spot ≥ $47.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $46.50): -$2,137 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,761 (+$17,939 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,640, the opportunity cost of earning $32,400/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 35 × $52 | 17 Jul | 9d | 24.3% | 88% | 24% | $2,485 | $8,283 | -$8,050 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $52 24.3% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.78 mid) = $2,485 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,283/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $52.78) 90% EV / mo +$4,086 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.1-1.0] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-336 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,080 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 76% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.07/sh now → $3.59 mid-life (likely $3.18–$5.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 566 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $52 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $52.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $52): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $44): -$62 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,685 (+$20,015 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$435, the opportunity cost of earning $8,283/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 38 × $51 | 17 Jul | 9d | 21.9% | 86% | 29% | $3,230 | $10,767 | -$5,567 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $51 21.9% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.91 mid) = $3,230 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,767/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $51.91) 88% EV / mo +$5,021 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.0] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~1.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-699 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,039 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.93/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $3.29–$5.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 658 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $51 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $51.91 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $51): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$25 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,648 (+$20,052 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$473, the opportunity cost of earning $10,767/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 35 × $48 | 17 Jul | 9d | 14.8% | 79% | 34% | $4,900 | $16,333 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $48 14.8% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.46 mid) = $4,900 credit for the 9d cycle → $16,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $49.46) 83% EV / mo +$5,959 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 99% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,395 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,315 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.53/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.48–$5.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,020 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $48 is at/above CC-SS $47.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.40 collected) or spot ≥ $49.46 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $48): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $44): -$62 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,685 (+$20,015 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$435, the opportunity cost of earning $16,333/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 39 × $44 | 17 Jul | 9d | 5.2% | 64% | 78% | $9,906 | $33,020 | +$16,687 | $4,034 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $44 5.2% OTM over spot $41.83 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.63 mid) = $9,906 credit for the 9d cycle → $33,020/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 64% Breach risk 36% POP (stays ≤ $46.63) 74% EV / mo +$7,035 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 87% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 100% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,888 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,156 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $3.78–$5.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,889 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $46 (overshoots $1.95). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $4 below CC-SS $47.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $46.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.87 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-21,700 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$20,077 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $44): -$4,034 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$12 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,670 (+$16,030 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,121 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,549, the opportunity cost of earning $33,020/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 36 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.873 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$20,077 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,121
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $48.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.28 | 39/40 | $16,380 | $8,747 | 94% | 95% | +$12,790 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-544 (vs do-nothing +$1,577) |
| $48 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.33 | 33/40 | $16,335 | $12,583 | 92% | 93% | +$12,318 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-621 (vs do-nothing +$1,499) |
| $47.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 28/40 | $16,380 | $15,862 | 91% | 92% | +$11,889 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-889 (vs do-nothing +$1,232) |
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.46 | 24/40 | $16,560 | $18,630 | 89% | 91% | +$11,512 | -$274 | 0.4% | $-2,097 (vs do-nothing +$24) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 20/40 | $16,200 | $20,858 | 87% | 89% | +$10,716 | -$1,069 | 1.7% | $-2,941 (vs do-nothing $-820) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.64 | 17/40 | $16,320 | $22,918 | 84% | 88% | +$10,282 | -$1,588 | 2.5% | $-3,498 (vs do-nothing $-1,377) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 15/40 | $16,650 | $24,542 | 82% | 86% | +$9,802 | -$2,002 | 3.1% | $-3,936 (vs do-nothing $-1,815) |
| $48 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 35/40 | $16,333 | $11,288 | 79% | 83% | +$5,959 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,215 (vs do-nothing +$5,335) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.86 | 13/40 | $16,770 | $25,956 | 78% | 84% | +$9,204 | -$2,229 | 3.5% | $-4,188 (vs do-nothing $-2,067) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 30/40 | $16,400 | $14,589 | 75% | 81% | +$5,391 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,449 (vs do-nothing +$3,570) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 11/40 | $16,500 | $26,979 | 75% | 82% | +$8,413 | -$2,282 | 3.6% | $-4,266 (vs do-nothing $-2,145) |
| $48 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 39/40 | $16,234 | $8,601 | 74% | 80% | +$4,335 | -$0 | 0.0% | $7,022 (vs do-nothing +$9,143) |
| $47 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 35/40 | $16,275 | $11,229 | 72% | 78% | +$3,946 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,984 (vs do-nothing +$7,105) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 26/40 | $16,553 | $17,330 | 72% | 78% | +$4,823 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-925 (vs do-nothing +$1,196) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.15 | 10/40 | $17,250 | $28,376 | 71% | 79% | +$8,053 | -$2,424 | 3.8% | $-4,421 (vs do-nothing $-2,300) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 31/40 | $16,566 | $14,108 | 69% | 77% | +$3,996 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,219 (vs do-nothing +$4,340) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 22/40 | $16,500 | $19,864 | 68% | 76% | +$4,389 | -$714 | 1.1% | $-2,561 (vs do-nothing $-440) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.32 | 9/40 | $17,820 | $29,593 | 67% | 77% | +$7,570 | -$2,479 | 3.9% | $-4,488 (vs do-nothing $-2,367) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 28/40 | $16,275 | $15,758 | 66% | 75% | +$3,247 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-301 (vs do-nothing +$1,820) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 27/40 | $16,453 | $16,582 | 64% | 74% | +$3,012 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,311 (vs do-nothing +$810) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.54 | 20/40 | $16,933 | $21,591 | 64% | 74% | +$3,607 | -$2,069 | 3.2% | $-3,941 (vs do-nothing $-1,820) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.50 | 8/40 | $18,000 | $30,420 | 63% | 75% | +$6,836 | -$2,459 | 3.8% | $-4,481 (vs do-nothing $-2,360) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 25/40 | $16,172 | $17,595 | 63% | 73% | +$2,867 | -$311 | 0.5% | $-2,121 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 24/40 | $16,425 | $18,495 | 61% | 73% | +$2,783 | -$1,018 | 1.6% | $-2,841 (vs do-nothing $-720) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 17/40 | $17,000 | $23,598 | 59% | 72% | +$3,408 | -$2,676 | 4.2% | $-4,586 (vs do-nothing $-2,465) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 23/40 | $16,603 | $19,320 | 59% | 72% | +$2,651 | -$1,666 | 2.6% | $-3,501 (vs do-nothing $-1,380) |
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.71 | 7/40 | $17,955 | $31,022 | 58% | 73% | +$6,114 | -$2,355 | 3.7% | $-4,389 (vs do-nothing $-2,268) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 21/40 | $16,144 | $20,154 | 58% | 71% | +$2,562 | -$2,046 | 3.2% | $-3,906 (vs do-nothing $-1,785) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 20/40 | $16,125 | $20,782 | 56% | 70% | +$2,347 | -$2,549 | 4.0% | $-4,421 (vs do-nothing $-2,300) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.45 | 15/40 | $17,250 | $25,142 | 55% | 70% | +$2,986 | -$3,187 | 5.0% | $-5,121 (vs do-nothing $-3,000) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 19/40 | $16,209 | $21,514 | 54% | 70% | +$2,281 | -$2,896 | 4.5% | $-4,781 (vs do-nothing $-2,660) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 6/40 | $17,190 | $30,904 | 54% | 71% | +$5,017 | -$2,199 | 3.4% | $-4,245 (vs do-nothing $-2,124) |
| $41 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 18/40 | $16,200 | $22,151 | 52% | 69% | +$2,171 | -$3,194 | 5.0% | $-5,091 (vs do-nothing $-2,970) |
| $41 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 13/40 | $17,117 | $26,302 | 50% | 68% | +$2,545 | -$3,412 | 5.3% | $-5,371 (vs do-nothing $-3,250) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.17 | 5/40 | $16,275 | $30,636 | 49% | 69% | +$4,235 | -$1,952 | 3.1% | $-4,011 (vs do-nothing $-1,890) |
| $41 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 5/40 | $18,375 | $32,736 | 44% | 67% | +$4,231 | -$2,062 | 3.2% | $-4,121 (vs do-nothing $-2,000) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 40 contracts at the conservative CC.