40 contracts (4,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $47.06 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $112,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 4000 |
| Normal income ref | $31,125/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $8,520/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-24,200 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 40 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 10 Jul 2026 · 2d | 39 × $47 | 94% | $15,795 | $7,883 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 17 Jul 2026 · 9d | 38 × $47 | 80% | $15,707 | $2,308 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 38 × $49 | 10 Jul | 2d | 21.1% | 97% | 6% | $570 | $8,550 | -$7,245 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $49 21.1% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.17 mid) = $570 credit for the 2d cycle → $8,550/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $49.17) 97% EV / mo +$7,409 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,132 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 2% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,602 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $61 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.67/sh now → $1.89 mid-life (likely $1.91–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 75 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $51 (overshoots $2.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $49 is at/above CC-SS $47.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $49.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $49): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,663 (+$22,537 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$765, the opportunity cost of earning $8,550/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 35 × $48 | 10 Jul | 2d | 18.6% | 96% | 9% | $700 | $10,500 | -$5,295 | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 35 × $48 18.6% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.21 mid) = $700 credit for the 2d cycle → $10,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $48.20) 96% EV / mo +$8,690 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $161 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,716 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $60 @ 85% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 35 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.59/sh now → $1.83 mid-life (likely $1.78–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.63/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 120 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $50 (overshoots $1.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $48 is at/above CC-SS $47.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $48.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (35 × $48): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $44): -$101 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,724 (+$22,476 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$705, the opportunity cost of earning $10,500/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $47 | 10 Jul | 2d | 16.2% | 94% | 8% | $1,053 | $15,795 | — | $0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $47 16.2% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.29 mid) = $1,053 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,795/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $47.28) 94% EV / mo +$12,212 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.1] median · 79% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,093 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,887 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.52/sh now → $1.78 mid-life (likely $1.83–$3.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 228 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $49 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $47 is at/above CC-SS $47.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $47.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $47): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$20 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,643 (+$22,557 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$785, the opportunity cost of earning $15,795/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 40 × $46 | 10 Jul | 2d | 13.7% | 91% | 19% | $1,520 | $22,800 | +$7,005 | $2,726 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $46 13.7% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.41 mid) = $1,520 credit for the 2d cycle → $22,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $46.41) 92% EV / mo +$16,461 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,212 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,387 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.44/sh now → $1.73 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 295 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $48 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $1 below CC-SS $47.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $46.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $46): -$2,726 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,349 (+$19,851 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,920, the opportunity cost of earning $22,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $45 | 10 Jul | 2d | 11.2% | 87% | 27% | $2,120 | $31,800 | +$16,005 | $6,126 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $45 11.2% OTM over spot $40.46 10 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.55 mid) = $2,120 credit for the 2d cycle → $31,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $45.55) 89% EV / mo +$21,009 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 89% without) · ~5.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,851 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,578 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.67 mid-life (likely $1.76–$3.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 474 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $47 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $2 below CC-SS $47.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $45.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $45): -$6,126 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,749 (+$16,451 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,320, the opportunity cost of earning $31,800/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 38 × $51 | 17 Jul | 9d | 26.1% | 89% | 23% | $2,584 | $8,613 | -$7,093 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $51 26.1% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.71 mid) = $2,584 credit for the 9d cycle → $8,613/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $51.70) 90% EV / mo +$4,322 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~1.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,241 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$11,056 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 77% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.07/sh now → $3.59 mid-life (likely $3.04–$5.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 503 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $53 (overshoots $2.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $51 is at/above CC-SS $47.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $51.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $51): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,663 (+$22,537 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$765, the opportunity cost of earning $8,613/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 40 × $50 | 17 Jul | 9d | 23.6% | 87% | 27% | $3,160 | $10,533 | -$5,173 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $50 23.6% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.81 mid) = $3,160 credit for the 9d cycle → $10,533/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $50.81) 89% EV / mo +$4,918 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 72% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,560 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 21% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,797 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.93/sh now → $3.49 mid-life (likely $3.23–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.79/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 629 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $52 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $50 is at/above CC-SS $47.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.79 collected) or spot ≥ $50.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,623 (+$22,577 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$806, the opportunity cost of earning $10,533/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 38 × $47 | 17 Jul | 9d | 16.2% | 80% | 33% | $4,712 | $15,707 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $47 16.2% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.31 mid) = $4,712 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,707/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $48.31) 83% EV / mo +$5,535 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 77% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,974 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,431 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $54 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.51/sh now → $3.20 mid-life (likely $3.41–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 993 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $49 (overshoots $1.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $47 is at/above CC-SS $47.06: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.24 collected) or spot ≥ $48.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $47): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$40 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,663 (+$22,537 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$765, the opportunity cost of earning $15,707/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 40 × $43 | 17 Jul | 9d | 6.3% | 66% | 74% | $9,560 | $31,867 | +$16,160 | $6,686 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $43 6.3% OTM over spot $40.46 17 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.45 mid) = $9,560 credit for the 9d cycle → $31,867/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $45.45) 75% EV / mo +$7,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.7] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,856 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,724 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $3.67–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,776 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $4 below CC-SS $47.06: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.39 collected) or spot ≥ $45.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $65.08 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.85 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $47.06, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-24,200 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$22,577 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $43): -$6,686 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,309 (+$15,891 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,429 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,880, the opportunity cost of earning $31,867/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 35 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.855 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,577 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,429
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $47 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.27 | 39/40 | $15,795 | $7,811 | 94% | 94% | +$12,212 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-830 (vs do-nothing +$1,599) |
| $46.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.30 | 35/40 | $15,750 | $9,911 | 92% | 93% | +$11,516 | -$915 | 1.4% | $-2,639 (vs do-nothing $-210) |
| $46 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.38 | 28/40 | $15,960 | $13,875 | 91% | 92% | +$11,522 | -$1,908 | 3.0% | $-3,773 (vs do-nothing $-1,344) |
| $45.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.45 | 24/40 | $16,200 | $16,260 | 89% | 91% | +$11,229 | -$2,667 | 4.2% | $-4,613 (vs do-nothing $-2,184) |
| $45 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 20/40 | $15,900 | $18,105 | 87% | 89% | +$10,504 | -$3,063 | 4.8% | $-5,089 (vs do-nothing $-2,660) |
| $44.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.62 | 17/40 | $15,810 | $19,624 | 84% | 88% | +$9,871 | -$3,300 | 5.2% | $-5,387 (vs do-nothing $-2,958) |
| $44 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.72 | 15/40 | $16,200 | $21,086 | 81% | 86% | +$9,461 | -$3,512 | 5.5% | $-5,639 (vs do-nothing $-3,210) |
| $47 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.24 | 38/40 | $15,707 | $8,259 | 80% | 83% | +$5,535 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,815 (vs do-nothing +$5,244) |
| $43.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.84 | 13/40 | $16,380 | $22,339 | 78% | 84% | +$8,927 | -$3,538 | 5.5% | $-5,705 (vs do-nothing $-3,276) |
| $46 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 32/40 | $15,893 | $11,663 | 77% | 81% | +$5,335 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-413 (vs do-nothing +$2,016) |
| $43 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $0.98 | 11/40 | $16,170 | $23,201 | 75% | 82% | +$8,190 | -$3,390 | 5.3% | $-5,597 (vs do-nothing $-3,168) |
| $45 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 27/40 | $16,110 | $14,561 | 73% | 79% | +$5,179 | -$733 | 1.1% | $-2,618 (vs do-nothing $-189) |
| $46 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 37/40 | $15,748 | $8,837 | 73% | 79% | +$3,860 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,788 (vs do-nothing +$5,217) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.13 | 10/40 | $16,950 | $24,518 | 71% | 79% | +$7,852 | -$3,431 | 5.4% | $-5,659 (vs do-nothing $-3,230) |
| $45 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 32/40 | $15,600 | $11,370 | 70% | 77% | +$3,756 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-61 (vs do-nothing +$2,368) |
| $44 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 23/40 | $15,717 | $16,313 | 70% | 77% | +$4,355 | -$2,326 | 3.6% | $-4,292 (vs do-nothing $-1,863) |
| $44.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 31/40 | $15,752 | $12,058 | 69% | 77% | +$3,448 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,344 (vs do-nothing +$1,085) |
| $44 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 30/40 | $16,088 | $12,930 | 67% | 76% | +$3,327 | -$604 | 0.9% | $-2,429 (vs do-nothing $-0) |
| $42 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.29 | 9/40 | $17,415 | $25,519 | 66% | 77% | +$7,246 | -$3,394 | 5.3% | $-5,642 (vs do-nothing $-3,213) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 28/40 | $15,750 | $13,665 | 66% | 75% | +$2,994 | -$1,572 | 2.5% | $-3,437 (vs do-nothing $-1,008) |
| $43 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.39 | 20/40 | $15,933 | $18,138 | 66% | 75% | +$3,953 | -$3,343 | 5.2% | $-5,369 (vs do-nothing $-2,940) |
| $43 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 27/40 | $15,947 | $14,398 | 64% | 74% | +$2,782 | -$2,461 | 3.8% | $-4,346 (vs do-nothing $-1,917) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 26/40 | $16,088 | $15,075 | 62% | 73% | +$2,529 | -$3,280 | 5.1% | $-5,185 (vs do-nothing $-2,756) |
| $41.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.49 | 7/40 | $15,645 | $24,821 | 62% | 75% | +$5,921 | -$2,850 | 4.5% | $-5,138 (vs do-nothing $-2,709) |
| $42 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.79 | 17/40 | $15,810 | $19,624 | 61% | 73% | +$3,548 | -$3,861 | 6.0% | $-5,948 (vs do-nothing $-3,519) |
| $42 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 24/40 | $15,750 | $15,810 | 61% | 72% | +$2,374 | -$3,747 | 5.9% | $-5,693 (vs do-nothing $-3,264) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 23/40 | $15,956 | $16,552 | 59% | 71% | +$2,268 | -$4,281 | 6.7% | $-6,247 (vs do-nothing $-3,818) |
| $41 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 7/40 | $17,850 | $27,026 | 57% | 73% | +$6,020 | -$3,053 | 4.8% | $-5,341 (vs do-nothing $-2,912) |
| $41 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 21/40 | $16,144 | $17,812 | 57% | 71% | +$2,808 | -$4,119 | 6.4% | $-6,125 (vs do-nothing $-3,696) |
| $41 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 15/40 | $16,000 | $20,886 | 57% | 71% | +$3,071 | -$4,292 | 6.7% | $-6,419 (vs do-nothing $-3,990) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 20/40 | $15,563 | $17,768 | 55% | 70% | +$2,022 | -$4,823 | 7.5% | $-6,849 (vs do-nothing $-4,420) |
| $40 | 16d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 19/40 | $15,675 | $18,416 | 54% | 69% | +$1,973 | -$5,057 | 7.9% | $-7,103 (vs do-nothing $-4,674) |
| $40.50 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $1.94 | 6/40 | $17,460 | $27,172 | 52% | 70% | +$5,255 | -$2,773 | 4.3% | $-5,081 (vs do-nothing $-2,652) |
| $40 | 9d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 13/40 | $15,817 | $21,775 | 52% | 69% | +$2,533 | -$4,435 | 6.9% | $-6,602 (vs do-nothing $-4,173) |
| $40 | 2d | 10 Jul 2026 | $2.19 | 5/40 | $16,425 | $26,674 | 47% | 68% | +$4,314 | -$2,436 | 3.8% | $-4,764 (vs do-nothing $-2,335) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 40 contracts at the conservative CC.