40 contracts (4,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.28 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782
| Max Loss | $112,000 | (ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 4000 |
| Normal income ref | $32,446/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $7,856/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-27,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $55C 17 Jul 2026 | U10001299 | $0.49 | $985 | 2026-07-09 |
| 20x $55C 17 Jul 2026 | U6241782 | $0.49 | $985 | 2026-07-09 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 40 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 39 × $46 | 83% | $16,575 | $4,469 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 40 × $49 | 17 Jul | 6d | 20.3% | 92% | 17% | $1,600 | $8,000 | -$8,575 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 40 × $49 20.3% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.42 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $49.42) 93% EV / mo +$5,226 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 68% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,508 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$8,800 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 40 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.68/sh now → $2.60 mid-life (likely $2.22–$3.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 359 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $51 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $49 is at/above CC-SS $48.28: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $49.42 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,146 − CC assignment net of premium (40 × $49): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,354 (+$26,146 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,286 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$7,931, the opportunity cost of earning $8,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 33 × $47 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.4% | 86% | 28% | $2,178 | $10,890 | -$5,685 | $2,055 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 33 × $47 15.4% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.69 mid) = $2,178 credit for the 6d cycle → $10,890/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.69) 89% EV / mo +$6,219 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 76% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,983 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,885 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 33 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.45/sh now → $2.44 mid-life (likely $2.22–$3.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 583 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $49 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $1 below CC-SS $48.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.66 collected) or spot ≥ $47.69 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,146 − CC assignment net of premium (33 × $47): -$2,055 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (7 × $44): -$1,388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,798 (+$22,702 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,286 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$4,488, the opportunity cost of earning $10,890/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 39 × $46 | 17 Jul | 6d | 12.9% | 83% | 26% | $3,315 | $16,575 | — | $5,588 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 39 × $46 12.9% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.89 mid) = $3,315 credit for the 6d cycle → $16,575/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 86% EV / mo +$8,764 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.3-1.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 94% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,583 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,914 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 39 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.35/sh now → $2.37 mid-life (likely $2.34–$3.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 787 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $47 (overshoots $1.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $2 below CC-SS $48.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,146 − CC assignment net of premium (39 × $46): -$5,588 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $44): -$198 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,141 (+$20,359 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,286 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,145, the opportunity cost of earning $16,575/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 38 × $43 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.6% | 68% | 68% | $6,536 | $32,680 | +$16,105 | $13,539 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 38 × $43 5.6% OTM over spot $40.73 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.75 mid) = $6,536 credit for the 6d cycle → $32,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $44.74) 77% EV / mo +$12,696 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 91% without) · ~8.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,389 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,606 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 38 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $2.64–$3.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.42/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,559 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $44 (overshoots $1.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $5 below CC-SS $48.28: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.43/sh (~25% of the $1.72 collected) or spot ≥ $44.74 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.87 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $48.28, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-27,500 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$26,146 − CC assignment net of premium (38 × $43): -$13,539 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $44): -$397 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,290 (+$12,210 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-9,286 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,004, the opportunity cost of earning $32,680/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.866 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$26,146 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,286
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.85 | 39/40 | $16,575 | $9,250 | 83% | 86% | +$8,764 | -$5,588 | 8.7% | $-7,141 (vs do-nothing +$2,145) |
| $45 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.12 | 29/40 | $16,240 | $14,223 | 78% | 83% | +$8,110 | -$6,272 | 9.8% | $-9,808 (vs do-nothing $-522) |
| $45.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.81 | 39/40 | $16,290 | $8,965 | 74% | 80% | +$5,265 | -$3,794 | 5.9% | $-5,347 (vs do-nothing +$3,939) |
| $44 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 24/40 | $16,320 | $16,957 | 73% | 80% | +$7,029 | -$7,015 | 11.0% | $-11,542 (vs do-nothing $-2,256) |
| $45 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 35/40 | $16,477 | $11,275 | 72% | 78% | +$5,012 | -$4,350 | 6.8% | $-6,696 (vs do-nothing +$2,590) |
| $44.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.13 | 34/40 | $16,712 | $12,041 | 70% | 77% | +$4,510 | -$5,620 | 8.8% | $-8,164 (vs do-nothing +$1,122) |
| $45 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 38/40 | $16,644 | $9,850 | 69% | 77% | +$4,467 | -$1,379 | 2.2% | $-3,130 (vs do-nothing +$6,156) |
| $44 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 31/40 | $16,454 | $13,375 | 68% | 76% | +$4,283 | -$6,147 | 9.6% | $-9,286 (vs do-nothing +$0) |
| $43 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.72 | 19/40 | $16,340 | $19,630 | 68% | 77% | +$6,348 | -$6,769 | 10.6% | $-12,288 (vs do-nothing $-3,002) |
| $44 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 35/40 | $16,275 | $11,073 | 66% | 75% | +$3,357 | -$4,140 | 6.5% | $-6,486 (vs do-nothing +$2,800) |
| $43.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.48 | 29/40 | $16,597 | $14,580 | 66% | 75% | +$4,160 | -$6,678 | 10.4% | $-10,214 (vs do-nothing $-928) |
| $43 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 27/40 | $16,636 | $15,680 | 64% | 74% | +$4,007 | -$7,055 | 11.0% | $-10,987 (vs do-nothing $-1,701) |
| $43 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 30/40 | $16,425 | $13,877 | 63% | 74% | +$3,718 | -$4,899 | 7.7% | $-8,236 (vs do-nothing +$1,050) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.87 | 25/40 | $16,558 | $16,664 | 62% | 73% | +$3,824 | -$7,282 | 11.4% | $-11,611 (vs do-nothing $-2,325) |
| $42 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 16/40 | $16,800 | $21,683 | 61% | 74% | +$5,576 | -$6,693 | 10.5% | $-12,806 (vs do-nothing $-3,520) |
| $42 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 24/40 | $16,892 | $17,529 | 60% | 72% | +$3,601 | -$7,759 | 12.1% | $-12,286 (vs do-nothing $-3,000) |
| $42 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 27/40 | $16,605 | $15,649 | 60% | 72% | +$3,533 | -$5,894 | 9.2% | $-9,826 (vs do-nothing $-540) |
| $41.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 22/40 | $16,246 | $17,944 | 58% | 71% | +$3,107 | -$7,882 | 12.3% | $-12,806 (vs do-nothing $-3,520) |
| $41 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.50 | 25/40 | $16,875 | $16,981 | 56% | 71% | +$3,097 | -$6,957 | 10.9% | $-11,286 (vs do-nothing $-2,000) |
| $41 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 21/40 | $16,962 | $19,190 | 55% | 70% | +$3,308 | -$7,944 | 12.4% | $-13,066 (vs do-nothing $-3,780) |
| $41 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.55 | 13/40 | $16,575 | $23,050 | 55% | 71% | +$4,650 | -$6,153 | 9.6% | $-12,861 (vs do-nothing $-3,575) |
| $40.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 19/40 | $16,442 | $19,733 | 53% | 70% | +$3,022 | -$7,662 | 12.0% | $-13,181 (vs do-nothing $-3,895) |
| $40 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 22/40 | $16,500 | $18,198 | 53% | 70% | +$2,759 | -$7,222 | 11.3% | $-12,146 (vs do-nothing $-2,860) |
| $40 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 18/40 | $16,408 | $20,229 | 51% | 69% | +$2,625 | -$7,799 | 12.2% | $-13,516 (vs do-nothing $-4,230) |
| $40 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 11/40 | $16,775 | $24,312 | 48% | 68% | +$3,848 | -$5,756 | 9.0% | $-12,861 (vs do-nothing $-3,575) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 40 contracts at the conservative CC.