FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25 @ $38.15

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.20 | 40 contracts (4,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25 @ $38.15 UNDERWATER $5.85 (13.3% below BE SS)

40 contracts (4,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.20 (banked floor $47.35) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$112,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 4000
Normal income ref	$30,375/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$9,226/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-34,100	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$15,188/mo

HEDGE COVER
$9,226/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$30,375/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.1 mo to earn back $64,000

ML VELOCITY
3.7 mo to earn back $112,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $48.20 (probe: $48C 16d) still earns $8,475/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,143

Hole (after banked)

$30,957

was $34,100 · 9% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$48.20 → $47.35

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 25 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 36 · %B 21 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $47.36 (+24%) · daily UBB $61.12 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $48.20 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 40 × $49 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $49)

86%

Touch odds

31%

Per cycle

$3,320

Income / mo

$6,225

🎯 Recommended · sell 40 × $50 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

88%

Touch odds

26%

Per cycle

$3,400

Income / mo

$6,375

🛡 Safer · sell 40 × $51 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $51)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$2,280

Income / mo

$4,275

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (33 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.835 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$33,579 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-9,055

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.31	33/40	$15,345	$8,836	92%	93%	+$11,501	-$16,148	25.2%	$-18,163 (vs do-nothing $-9,108)
$42	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.47	22/40	$15,510	$13,270	87%	89%	+$10,480	-$12,614	19.7%	$-16,975 (vs do-nothing $-7,920)
$41	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.68	15/40	$15,300	$15,777	80%	85%	+$8,765	-$9,785	15.3%	$-15,640 (vs do-nothing $-6,585)
$43.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.14	40/40	$15,200	$5,974	79%	83%	+$5,803	-$14,254	22.3%	$-14,775 (vs do-nothing $-5,720)
$43	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.28	36/40	$15,360	$7,687	77%	82%	+$5,704	-$14,124	22.1%	$-15,499 (vs do-nothing $-6,444)
$42.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.41	33/40	$15,510	$9,001	75%	81%	+$5,431	-$14,168	22.1%	$-16,183 (vs do-nothing $-7,128)
$44	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.07	40/40	$15,525	$6,299	75%	80%	+$4,616	-$8,534	13.3%	$-9,055 (vs do-nothing $-0)
$43.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.20	37/40	$15,262	$7,201	74%	79%	+$4,311	-$9,263	14.5%	$-10,424 (vs do-nothing $-1,369)
$42	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.60	29/40	$15,467	$10,510	73%	79%	+$5,409	-$13,350	20.9%	$-16,218 (vs do-nothing $-7,163)
$43	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.32	35/40	$15,225	$7,940	72%	79%	+$3,993	-$10,092	15.8%	$-11,680 (vs do-nothing $-2,625)
$40	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.03	10/40	$15,450	$17,868	71%	80%	+$7,886	-$7,173	11.2%	$-14,095 (vs do-nothing $-5,040)
$41.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.73	27/40	$15,570	$11,390	71%	78%	+$4,968	-$13,428	21.0%	$-16,723 (vs do-nothing $-7,668)
$42.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.32	35/40	$15,225	$7,940	71%	78%	+$3,062	-$11,842	18.5%	$-13,430 (vs do-nothing $-4,375)

Show 20 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$42	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.53	33/40	$15,654	$9,145	69%	77%	+$3,249	-$12,122	18.9%	$-14,137 (vs do-nothing $-5,082)
$41	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.91	24/40	$15,280	$12,264	68%	77%	+$4,532	-$12,704	19.9%	$-16,639 (vs do-nothing $-7,584)
$41.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.73	30/40	$15,356	$10,012	67%	76%	+$3,171	-$11,920	18.6%	$-14,575 (vs do-nothing $-5,520)
$41	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.86	29/40	$15,551	$10,595	66%	75%	+$2,839	-$12,596	19.7%	$-15,464 (vs do-nothing $-6,409)
$40.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.10	22/40	$15,400	$13,160	65%	74%	+$3,239	-$12,328	19.3%	$-16,689 (vs do-nothing $-7,634)
$40.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.25	25/40	$15,234	$11,830	64%	74%	+$3,422	-$11,134	17.4%	$-14,855 (vs do-nothing $-5,800)
$40	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	20/40	$15,333	$13,870	63%	74%	+$4,080	-$11,807	18.4%	$-16,595 (vs do-nothing $-7,540)
$40	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.50	24/40	$15,750	$12,734	62%	73%	+$3,542	-$11,288	17.6%	$-15,223 (vs do-nothing $-6,168)
$39	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.40	8/40	$16,800	$19,994	61%	75%	+$6,774	-$6,243	9.8%	$-13,591 (vs do-nothing $-4,536)
$39.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.52	19/40	$15,960	$14,885	61%	72%	+$3,187	-$11,749	18.4%	$-16,750 (vs do-nothing $-7,695)
$39.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.70	22/40	$15,262	$13,023	60%	73%	+$3,230	-$11,008	17.2%	$-15,369 (vs do-nothing $-6,314)
$39	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	21/40	$15,553	$13,702	59%	72%	+$3,220	-$11,032	17.2%	$-15,607 (vs do-nothing $-6,552)
$39	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.63	18/40	$15,780	$15,093	58%	72%	+$3,323	-$11,832	18.5%	$-17,047 (vs do-nothing $-7,992)
$38.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.90	21/40	$15,356	$13,505	57%	71%	+$2,130	-$12,187	19.0%	$-16,762 (vs do-nothing $-7,707)
$38.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.98	16/40	$15,893	$15,983	56%	70%	+$2,922	-$10,758	16.8%	$-16,399 (vs do-nothing $-7,344)
$38	16d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	20/40	$15,750	$14,287	55%	70%	+$2,260	-$12,007	18.8%	$-16,795 (vs do-nothing $-7,740)
$38	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.15	15/40	$15,750	$16,227	53%	69%	+$2,916	-$10,580	16.5%	$-16,435 (vs do-nothing $-7,380)
$37.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$4.30	19/40	$15,319	$14,244	53%	69%	+$1,612	-$12,167	19.0%	$-17,168 (vs do-nothing $-8,113)
$37.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.40	14/40	$15,867	$16,732	50%	68%	+$2,659	-$10,225	16.0%	$-16,293 (vs do-nothing $-7,238)
$38	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.90	6/40	$17,100	$21,070	50%	70%	+$5,428	-$4,982	7.8%	$-12,757 (vs do-nothing $-3,702)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 40 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-15 03:39