FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC25 @ $39.37

BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.90 | 40 contracts (4,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC25 @ $39.37 UNDERWATER $4.63 (10.5% below BE SS)

40 contracts (4,000 sh) | BE SS: $44.00 | CC-SS: $48.90 (banked floor $48.05) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Main:1299, Joint:1782

LC: $25 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $32.037/sh)

SP: $47 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $21.146/sh)

HP: $35 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $5.147/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$112,000	(ND $16.00 + SW $12) x 4000
Normal income ref	$29,250/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$8,839/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-32,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$14,625/mo

HEDGE COVER
$8,839/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$29,250/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.2 mo to earn back $64,000

ML VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $112,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $48.90 (probe: $49C 16d) still earns $8,175/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$3,143

Hole (after banked)

$29,557

was $32,700 · 10% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$48.90 → $48.05

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 28 (live) · RSI 44 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 24 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $47.38 (+20%) · daily UBB $61.02 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $48.90 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 40 × $49 31 Jul 2026 (16d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $49)

84%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$4,360

Income / mo

$8,175

🛡 Safer · sell 40 × $53 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $53)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$40

Income / mo

$600

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (40 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$53	24 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.48/sh	+$9,930 cycle +$9,970	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$59	24 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.08/sh	+$313 cycle +$353	80% surv 75%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$66	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$0.07/sh	+$283 cycle +$323	84% surv 82%

🛡 Safer · sell 40 × $54 17 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $54)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$40

Income / mo

$600

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (40 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$54	24 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.55/sh	+$10,217 cycle +$10,257	69% surv 54%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$60	24 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$524 cycle +$564	80% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$67	31 Jul 2026	15d left	+$0.14/sh	+$557 cycle +$597	84% surv 81%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.842 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$32,082 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-11,120

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$43	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.38	26/40	$14,820	$11,940	85%	87%	+$7,105	-$14,340	22.4%	$-18,634 (vs do-nothing $-7,514)
$44.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.11	40/40	$14,800	$5,961	78%	82%	+$4,912	-$13,142	20.5%	$-13,760 (vs do-nothing $-2,640)
$42	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.59	17/40	$15,045	$15,996	77%	82%	+$5,950	-$10,719	16.7%	$-17,376 (vs do-nothing $-6,256)
$44	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.24	36/40	$14,880	$7,744	76%	81%	+$4,730	-$13,160	20.6%	$-14,828 (vs do-nothing $-3,708)
$43.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.39	32/40	$14,827	$9,393	74%	80%	+$4,562	-$12,818	20.0%	$-15,536 (vs do-nothing $-4,416)
$45	16d	31 Jul 2026	$1.99	40/40	$14,925	$6,086	74%	80%	+$3,514	-$7,622	11.9%	$-8,240 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$44.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.15	37/40	$14,916	$7,354	73%	79%	+$3,461	-$8,308	13.0%	$-9,714 (vs do-nothing +$1,406)
$44	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.27	35/40	$14,897	$8,186	71%	78%	+$3,152	-$9,189	14.4%	$-11,120 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$42.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.69	26/40	$14,647	$11,767	70%	77%	+$3,939	-$12,234	19.1%	$-16,528 (vs do-nothing $-5,408)
$43.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.47	32/40	$14,820	$9,386	70%	77%	+$3,193	-$9,362	14.6%	$-12,080 (vs do-nothing $-960)
$41	2d	17 Jul 2026	$0.91	11/40	$15,015	$18,519	69%	77%	+$4,981	-$7,684	12.0%	$-15,916 (vs do-nothing $-4,796)
$43	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.62	30/40	$14,738	$10,155	68%	76%	+$2,950	-$9,826	15.4%	$-13,070 (vs do-nothing $-1,950)
$42	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.89	24/40	$15,120	$13,091	67%	76%	+$3,969	-$12,013	18.8%	$-16,832 (vs do-nothing $-5,712)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$42.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.79	28/40	$14,648	$10,916	66%	75%	+$2,763	-$10,095	15.8%	$-13,864 (vs do-nothing $-2,744)
$41.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$1.58	28/40	$14,747	$11,015	65%	74%	+$117	-$16,283	25.4%	$-20,052 (vs do-nothing $-8,932)
$42	16d	31 Jul 2026	$2.98	27/40	$15,086	$11,781	65%	74%	+$2,723	-$10,572	16.5%	$-14,603 (vs do-nothing $-3,483)
$41.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.00	26/40	$14,625	$11,745	63%	74%	+$2,664	-$11,428	17.9%	$-15,722 (vs do-nothing $-4,602)
$41	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.28	20/40	$15,200	$14,874	62%	73%	+$3,486	-$11,231	17.5%	$-17,100 (vs do-nothing $-5,980)
$41	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.20	25/40	$15,000	$12,546	61%	73%	+$2,627	-$11,739	18.3%	$-16,295 (vs do-nothing $-5,175)
$40.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.50	18/40	$15,000	$15,525	60%	72%	+$3,221	-$10,612	16.6%	$-17,006 (vs do-nothing $-5,886)
$40.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.40	23/40	$14,662	$13,059	59%	72%	+$2,429	-$11,490	18.0%	$-16,571 (vs do-nothing $-5,451)
$40	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.37	8/40	$16,440	$21,221	59%	72%	+$4,740	-$6,020	9.4%	$-15,040 (vs do-nothing $-3,920)
$40	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.65	22/40	$15,056	$13,879	57%	71%	+$2,495	-$11,540	18.0%	$-16,884 (vs do-nothing $-5,764)
$40	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.72	17/40	$15,413	$16,364	57%	71%	+$3,027	-$10,498	16.4%	$-17,155 (vs do-nothing $-6,035)
$39.50	16d	31 Jul 2026	$3.90	20/40	$14,625	$14,299	55%	70%	+$2,381	-$10,991	17.2%	$-16,860 (vs do-nothing $-5,740)
$39.50	9d	24 Jul 2026	$2.96	15/40	$14,800	$16,602	54%	70%	+$2,672	-$9,653	15.1%	$-16,835 (vs do-nothing $-5,715)
$39	16d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	19/40	$14,962	$15,062	53%	70%	+$2,505	-$10,821	16.9%	$-16,953 (vs do-nothing $-5,833)
$39	9d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	15/40	$15,500	$17,302	52%	68%	+$2,090	-$10,193	15.9%	$-17,375 (vs do-nothing $-6,255)
$39	2d	17 Jul 2026	$1.83	6/40	$16,470	$22,103	48%	67%	+$3,239	-$4,839	7.6%	$-14,384 (vs do-nothing $-3,264)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 40 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-15 21:39