FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC45 @ $45.10

SS: $56.50 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | 2026-06-29 23:15 | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC45 @ $45.10 UNDERWATER $11.40 (20.2% below SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | SS: $56.50 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $31.729/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.138/sh)

HP: $21 exp 2026-08-21 (entry $0.421/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$94,000	(ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000
Normal income ref	$17,973/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$860/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-29,700	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,986/mo

HEDGE COVER
$860/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$17,973/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.3 mo to earn back $6,000

ML VELOCITY
5.2 mo to earn back $94,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at SS $56 brings only $2,782/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below SS is warranted.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 42 (live) · RSI 50 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 5 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $65.77 (+46%) · daily UBB $67.76 · 1-wk expected move ±$7 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

🎯 RECOMMENDED PICK — safest strike covering 50% of normal

Sell 20 × $50 10 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.66 bid / $1.73 mid)

Survival (stays ≤ $50)

70%

Breach risk

30%

POP (stays ≤ $51.23)

76%

EV / mo

+$2,349

Gross FIGHT income	$9,055/mo
vs 50% target ($8,986/mo)	+1%
vs normal target ($17,973/mo)	50% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$8,194/mo

DOWNSIDE BUDGET (per DD_Fight vocabulary)

Cap give-up @ SS (V-bounce)	-$10,680
… as % of IC ($6,000)	178.0%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	11.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	0.6 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-29,830
… cuts bleed by	-$860/mo

✓ Highest-survival strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns $8,986/mo (max of the hedge cost and 50% of normal income), sized across your 20 contracts. IV 105% (strike).

🛡 IF CHALLENGED playbook · odds ~30% · flat exit -$2,345 net · free roll-up ≈ +$2/wk

Challenge odds

30%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$2,345

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026)

$64 @ 85%

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.66 collected) or spot ≥ $51.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected, NOT the full call price. It is the decaying part, the rent you earn for waiting; both the calendar and a rising spot drain it, and when it is gone waiting is risk for free. Momentum override: two daily closes above $67.76 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 6d left	3-5d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $49.01	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Let expire; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $49-51.23	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits. The sweet spot the menu below prices.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $51.23	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily, waiting only helps if the pop dies. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$49.50 (≤1σ, normal week)	$3,320	$-16,869	+$12,831	+$2,460
+2.5%	$50.74 (≤1σ, normal week)	$845	$-16,666	+$13,034	-$15
+5%	$51.98 (≤1σ, normal week)	$-1,630	$-16,463	+$13,237	-$2,490
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (1.4σ)	$-10,680	$-15,721	+$13,979	-$11,540

Roll menuyour doors when the ROLL tripwire fires; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.01/sh now → $2.83 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$50	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.06/sh	+$2,114 cycle +$5,434	65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$51	17 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.32/sh	+$645 cycle +$3,965	69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$56	7 Aug 2026	34d left	+$0.13/sh	+$255 cycle +$3,575	71%
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$64	31 Jul 2026	26d left	-$1.28/sh	-$2,569 cycle +$751	85%
budget: banked $3,320 debit $2,569 (77% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$751 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $3,572/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-FIGHT · clears SS ✓

POP of new CC = odds the rolled call expires profitable, measured from the challenged spot ($50) over its remaining days, sticky-moneyness chain IV; the primary was 76% from today, so a good roll roughly resets the odds. Free roll-up = how many dollars of strike the even-money ladder climbs per week (up-and-out gain / extra tenor); if the rally runs faster than this, the difference is paid in debits or cap give-up, no free sequence avoids it. Method: at the challenge the CC is ATM and prices like today's ATM (moneyness shift); sqrt-time decay applied to both legs. Planning estimates, quotes will have moved; the live roll table prices the real decision. A challenged FIGHT CC means the recovery is happening: the other 0 slices and the fortress delta are winning while the 20 calls lose.

📊 Income ladder — how much safety each dollar costs

Each rung is the safest strike (lowest breach probability) that still earns that income, sized across your contracts. Safest at the top. Going down the ladder buys income by selling a lower, more-often-breached strike. 🎯 is the primary (safest strike covering 50% of normal income). Cap @ SS is the recovery you mortgage only on a full V-bounce to SS.

Income rung	Trade	BB zone	Expiry	Survival	Breach	Income/mo	Net/mo	Cap @ SS	%IC
cover hedge	13 × $60 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	93%	7%	$922	$882	-$0	0%
🎯 50% normal	20 × $50 / 11d	MBB-UBB	10 Jul 2026	70%	30%	$9,055	$8,194	-$10,680	178%
100% normal	20 × $45 / 11d	LBB-MBB	10 Jul 2026	50%	50%	$18,545	$17,685	-$16,200	270%

⚔ Face-off if challenged · 🛡 SAFEST vs 🎯 PRIMARY vs 💰 RICHEST

	🛡 SAFEST	🎯 PRIMARY	💰 RICHEST
Trade	13 × $60 / 11d	20 × $50 / 11d	20 × $45 / 11d
POP this week (from today)	94%	76%	65%
Challenge means spot ≥	$60 (+33.0%)	$50 (+9.7%)	$45 (+-0.2%)
Odds of that challenge	~7%	~30%	~50%
Premium banked	$338	$3,320	$6,800
Flat exit net (mid-life)	-$4,125	-$2,345	+$1,650
Free roll-up speed	+$2/wk	+$2/wk	+$2/wk
Safest escape if challenged	$68 @ 73% 31 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge	$64 @ 85% 31 Jul 2026 · 26d left at challenge	$57 @ 91% 17 Jul 2026 · 12d left at challenge
Cycle cash floor (worst door)	-$4,125	-$2,345	+$1,650
Cap give-up if held to SS	-$0 (0.0% IC)	-$10,680 (178.0% IC)	-$16,200 (270.0% IC)

Same playbook engine run on each anchor. Higher strikes need a bigger rally before they are even threatened, and by then the fortress has gained more on the way up; the price is the cap give-up row if the rally keeps going. Cycle cash floor = banked premium plus the worst door in that anchor's roll menu (flat exit or safety roll), the most the whole challenged cycle can cost in cash. Estimates from today's chain, mid-life timing.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 20 contracts at $50 / 11d. This is the safest strike (survival 70%, breach 30%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($8,986/mo); it brings $9,055/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $45/11d for $18,545/mo, but breach risk rises to 50% (+20pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 13 × $60/11d (93% survival, $922/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $10,680 (178% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 0.6 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 20 contracts realizes $-29,830 and cuts bleed by $860/mo.

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → SS $56.50 by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-29,700

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$24,659

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$10,680

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,721 (+$13,979 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,181 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,540, the opportunity cost of earning $9,055/mo FIGHT income now)

FIGHT CC options

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 5-45 DTE band (5 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.082 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$24,659 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,181

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$50	11d	10 Jul 2026	$1.66	20/20	$9,055	$8,194	70%	76%	+$2,349	-$10,680	178.0%	$-15,721 (vs do-nothing $-11,540)
$49	11d	10 Jul 2026	$1.81	19/20	$9,379	$8,636	68%	75%	+$2,323	-$10,811	180.2%	$-15,809 (vs do-nothing $-11,628)
$48	11d	10 Jul 2026	$1.97	17/20	$9,134	$8,625	65%	73%	+$2,152	-$10,251	170.8%	$-15,163 (vs do-nothing $-10,982)
$48	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.10	16/20	$9,164	$8,772	63%	72%	+$1,908	-$10,240	170.7%	$-15,109 (vs do-nothing $-10,928)
$48	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.32	15/20	$9,491	$9,217	61%	71%	+$1,994	-$10,020	167.0%	$-14,846 (vs do-nothing $-10,665)
$48	18d	17 Jul 2026	$3.05	18/20	$9,150	$8,524	61%	70%	+$1,953	-$9,810	163.5%	$-14,765 (vs do-nothing $-10,584)
$47	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.52	14/20	$9,622	$9,465	59%	70%	+$1,923	-$9,772	162.9%	$-14,555 (vs do-nothing $-10,374)
$48	25d	24 Jul 2026	$3.80	20/20	$9,120	$8,260	59%	69%	+$1,682	-$9,400	156.7%	$-14,441 (vs do-nothing $-10,260)
$47	18d	17 Jul 2026	$3.45	16/20	$9,200	$8,809	57%	69%	+$1,788	-$9,680	161.3%	$-14,549 (vs do-nothing $-10,368)
$46	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.68	13/20	$9,502	$9,462	57%	68%	+$1,652	-$9,516	158.6%	$-14,256 (vs do-nothing $-10,075)
$47	25d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	18/20	$9,072	$8,446	56%	68%	+$1,552	-$9,540	159.0%	$-14,495 (vs do-nothing $-10,314)
$46	11d	10 Jul 2026	$2.95	12/20	$9,655	$9,732	54%	68%	+$1,715	-$9,060	151.0%	$-13,757 (vs do-nothing $-9,576)
$46	18d	17 Jul 2026	$3.85	15/20	$9,625	$9,351	53%	67%	+$1,613	-$9,975	166.2%	$-14,801 (vs do-nothing $-10,620)

Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$46	25d	24 Jul 2026	$4.60	17/20	$9,384	$8,875	53%	66%	+$1,426	-$10,030	167.2%	$-14,942 (vs do-nothing $-10,761)
$46	32d	31 Jul 2026	$5.05	19/20	$8,995	$8,252	52%	66%	+$1,062	-$10,355	172.6%	$-15,353 (vs do-nothing $-11,172)
$46	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.15	11/20	$9,450	$9,645	52%	66%	+$1,491	-$8,635	143.9%	$-13,289 (vs do-nothing $-9,108)
$45	39d	7 Aug 2026	$6.20	19/20	$9,062	$8,318	50%	65%	+$1,098	-$10,070	167.8%	$-15,068 (vs do-nothing $-10,887)
$45	32d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	17/20	$9,164	$8,656	50%	65%	+$1,346	-$9,775	162.9%	$-14,687 (vs do-nothing $-10,506)
$45	25d	24 Jul 2026	$5.10	15/20	$9,180	$8,906	50%	65%	+$1,334	-$9,600	160.0%	$-14,426 (vs do-nothing $-10,245)
$45	18d	17 Jul 2026	$4.30	13/20	$9,317	$9,277	50%	65%	+$1,351	-$9,360	156.0%	$-14,100 (vs do-nothing $-9,919)
$45	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.40	10/20	$9,273	$9,585	50%	65%	+$1,377	-$8,100	135.0%	$-12,711 (vs do-nothing $-8,530)
$44	11d	10 Jul 2026	$3.65	10/20	$9,955	$10,267	47%	64%	+$1,358	-$8,350	139.2%	$-12,961 (vs do-nothing $-8,780)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

Legend

Max Loss (ML)	Worst-case loss: (Net Debit + Spread Width) x shares. ND = LC entry - SP entry + HP entry. SW = SP strike - HP strike.
Normal income ref	Target monthly income: IV-based annual ROI on ML / 12 (LOW 45%, MED 75%, HIGH 95%)
50% income floor	The FIGHT leg must cover this much of the normal target; every candidate is sized to the minimum contracts that clear it
Hedge rolling cost	Monthly cost to maintain the HP (protective put): (30 / HP_DTE) x HP_ask x shares
POP (mid)	Probability the stock closes at or below strike + mid premium at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available
Survival	Probability the CC expires fully worthless (stock at or below strike)
EV/mo	Premium minus expected buyback, scaled monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%)
Cap give-up @ SS	(SS - strike - bid) x 100 x n: recovery mortgaged if the stock V-bounces to SS. The downside budget and the picker's primary key.
%IC / %ML	Cap give-up as a share of invested capital / max loss (DD_Fight vocabulary)
Recovery months	Cap give-up expressed in months of normal income
Conservative CC	Standard CC at safe strike (far OTM when underwater); the do-nothing baseline and the assumed leg on unsold contracts

fortress_fight.py v5.0 | 2026-06-29 23:15