20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $59.07 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,724/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $851/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-36,450 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 19 × $49 | 80% | $8,479 | $1,036 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $61 | 17 Jul | 8d | 43.1% | 98% | 5% | $228 | $855 | -$7,624 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $61 43.1% OTM over spot $42.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.14 mid) = $228 credit for the 8d cycle → $855/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $61) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $61.14) 98% EV / mo +$597 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.4 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-208 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,821 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $65 @ 75% POP 66% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.98/sh now → $4.24 mid-life (likely $2.86–$5.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 101 simulated challenges: the $61 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $63 (overshoots $2.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $61 is at/above CC-SS $59.07: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.12 collected) or spot ≥ $61.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $61)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,463 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $61): -$0 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,127 (+$35,323 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,782 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$2,655, the opportunity cost of earning $855/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $53 | 17 Jul | 8d | 24.4% | 90% | 21% | $1,060 | $3,975 | -$4,504 | $11,075 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $53 24.4% OTM over spot $42.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.59 mid) = $1,060 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,975/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $53) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $53.59) 91% EV / mo +$1,965 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-2.7] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 64% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,094 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,847 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.88/sh now → $3.45 mid-life (likely $3.02–$5.16) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 520 simulated challenges: the $53 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $55 (overshoots $2.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $53 is $6 below CC-SS $59.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.13/sh (~25% of the $0.53 collected) or spot ≥ $53.59 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $53)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,463 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $53): -$11,075 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,062 (+$24,388 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,782 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,280, the opportunity cost of earning $3,975/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $51 | 17 Jul | 8d | 19.7% | 86% | 30% | $1,539 | $5,771 | -$2,707 | $13,789 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $51 19.7% OTM over spot $42.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $0.86 mid) = $1,539 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,771/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $51.87) 88% EV / mo +$2,605 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-2.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,042 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,671 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.62/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $3.09–$5.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 700 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $53 (overshoots $1.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $8 below CC-SS $59.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $51.87 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,463 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $51): -$13,789 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,916 (+$21,534 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,782 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,134, the opportunity cost of earning $5,771/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $49 | 17 Jul | 8d | 15.0% | 80% | 34% | $2,261 | $8,479 | — | $16,867 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $49 15.0% OTM over spot $42.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.21 mid) = $2,261 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $50.22) 84% EV / mo +$3,314 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-3.1] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 59% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,783 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,606 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 81% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $3.24–$5.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,015 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $51 (overshoots $1.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $10 below CC-SS $59.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $50.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,463 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $49): -$16,867 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,994 (+$18,456 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,782 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,212, the opportunity cost of earning $8,479/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $45 | 17 Jul | 8d | 5.6% | 65% | 75% | $4,522 | $16,957 | +$8,479 | $22,206 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45 5.6% OTM over spot $42.62 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.40 mid) = $4,522 credit for the 8d cycle → $16,957/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $47.40) 74% EV / mo +$4,354 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.5-2.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.2 mo) · 74% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 67% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,460 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 60% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$682 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $57 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.87/sh now → $2.74 mid-life (likely $3.61–$5.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,798 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $1.86). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $59.07: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.38 collected) or spot ≥ $47.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.07, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-36,450 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$35,463 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45): -$22,206 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$140 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,333 (+$13,117 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,782 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,551, the opportunity cost of earning $16,957/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.078 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$35,463 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,782
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $49 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 19/20 | $8,479 | $7,762 | 80% | 84% | +$3,314 | -$16,867 | 281.1% | $-17,994 (vs do-nothing $-14,212) |
| $48 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.42 | 16/20 | $8,520 | $8,205 | 77% | 82% | +$3,016 | -$15,436 | 257.3% | $-16,982 (vs do-nothing $-13,200) |
| $47 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.70 | 14/20 | $8,925 | $8,878 | 73% | 79% | +$2,877 | -$14,515 | 241.9% | $-16,340 (vs do-nothing $-12,558) |
| $48 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.28 | 19/20 | $8,664 | $7,947 | 73% | 79% | +$2,278 | -$16,696 | 278.3% | $-17,823 (vs do-nothing $-14,041) |
| $47 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 16/20 | $8,384 | $8,069 | 70% | 77% | +$2,118 | -$15,116 | 251.9% | $-16,662 (vs do-nothing $-12,880) |
| $46 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.01 | 12/20 | $9,045 | $9,266 | 69% | 77% | +$2,591 | -$13,269 | 221.2% | $-15,374 (vs do-nothing $-11,592) |
| $46 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.93 | 15/20 | $8,790 | $8,609 | 67% | 75% | +$1,973 | -$15,206 | 253.4% | $-16,892 (vs do-nothing $-13,110) |
| $45 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.38 | 10/20 | $8,925 | $9,414 | 65% | 74% | +$2,292 | -$11,688 | 194.8% | $-14,072 (vs do-nothing $-10,290) |
| $45 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 14/20 | $8,960 | $8,913 | 63% | 74% | +$1,607 | -$15,215 | 253.6% | $-17,040 (vs do-nothing $-13,258) |
| $44.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 12/20 | $8,400 | $8,621 | 62% | 73% | +$1,636 | -$13,281 | 221.4% | $-15,386 (vs do-nothing $-11,604) |
| $44 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 9/20 | $9,382 | $10,005 | 60% | 72% | +$2,094 | -$11,059 | 184.3% | $-13,583 (vs do-nothing $-9,801) |
| $44 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $9,000 | $9,221 | 60% | 72% | +$1,749 | -$13,581 | 226.4% | $-15,686 (vs do-nothing $-11,904) |
| $43.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 11/20 | $8,470 | $8,825 | 58% | 71% | +$1,352 | -$12,889 | 214.8% | $-15,134 (vs do-nothing $-11,352) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 11/20 | $8,910 | $9,265 | 56% | 70% | +$1,297 | -$13,219 | 220.3% | $-15,464 (vs do-nothing $-11,682) |
| $43 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 7/20 | $8,400 | $9,291 | 56% | 70% | +$1,552 | -$9,007 | 150.1% | $-11,811 (vs do-nothing $-8,029) |
| $42.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 10/20 | $8,600 | $9,089 | 55% | 70% | +$1,207 | -$12,268 | 204.5% | $-14,652 (vs do-nothing $-10,870) |
| $42 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.60 | 10/20 | $9,200 | $9,689 | 53% | 69% | +$1,312 | -$12,468 | 207.8% | $-14,852 (vs do-nothing $-11,070) |
| $42 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 7/20 | $9,712 | $10,603 | 51% | 68% | +$1,530 | -$9,357 | 156.0% | $-12,161 (vs do-nothing $-8,379) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.