20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.26 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,246/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $907/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-37,170 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 18 × $46 | 79% | $8,460 | $2,250 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $54 | 17 Jul | 6d | 29.9% | 97% | 5% | $187 | $935 | -$7,525 | $7,055 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $54 29.9% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $187 credit for the 6d cycle → $935/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 97% EV / mo +$693 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $51 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,383 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $64 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.80/sh now → $2.69 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 91 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $56 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $4 below CC-SS $58.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,029 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $54): -$7,055 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$576 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,772 (+$28,398 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,981 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,791, the opportunity cost of earning $935/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 20.3% | 92% | 16% | $660 | $3,300 | -$5,160 | $15,860 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 20.3% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.34 mid) = $660 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $50.34) 93% EV / mo +$2,034 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~2.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,817 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,125 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.38/sh now → $2.39 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.33/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 313 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $52 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $8 below CC-SS $58.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.33 collected) or spot ≥ $50.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,029 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$15,860 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,001 (+$20,169 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,981 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,020, the opportunity cost of earning $3,300/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.4% | 87% | 27% | $1,120 | $5,600 | -$2,860 | $19,400 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 15.4% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.57 mid) = $1,120 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $48.58) 89% EV / mo +$2,943 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.4] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 62% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,664 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 20% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,381 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.18/sh now → $2.25 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 589 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $49 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $10 below CC-SS $58.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $48.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,029 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$19,400 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,541 (+$16,629 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,981 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,560, the opportunity cost of earning $5,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $46 | 17 Jul | 6d | 10.6% | 79% | 33% | $1,692 | $8,460 | — | $20,376 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $46 10.6% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.95 mid) = $1,692 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,460/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $46.95) 83% EV / mo +$3,644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~8.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,308 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,110 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.99/sh now → $2.11 mid-life (likely $2.25–$3.53) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.94/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 980 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $48 (overshoots $1.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $58.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.94 collected) or spot ≥ $46.95 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,029 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $46): -$20,376 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$384 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,901 (+$15,269 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,981 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,920, the opportunity cost of earning $8,460/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $43 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.4% | 62% | 79% | $3,330 | $16,650 | +$8,190 | $24,138 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $43 3.4% OTM over spot $41.58 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.90 mid) = $3,330 credit for the 6d cycle → $16,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $44.90) 73% EV / mo +$4,462 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 69% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~17.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,810 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 59% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$112 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.70/sh now → $1.91 mid-life (likely $2.54–$3.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,781 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $45 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.26: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $44.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.04 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.26, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-37,170 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$36,029 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $43): -$24,138 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$384 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,663 (+$11,507 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-4,981 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,682, the opportunity cost of earning $16,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 23 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.080 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$36,029 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-4,981
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.94 | 18/20 | $8,460 | $7,710 | 79% | 83% | +$3,644 | -$20,376 | 339.6% | $-21,901 (vs do-nothing $-16,920) |
| $45 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.19 | 14/20 | $8,330 | $7,893 | 74% | 80% | +$3,132 | -$16,898 | 281.6% | $-19,191 (vs do-nothing $-14,210) |
| $46 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.88 | 19/20 | $8,243 | $7,414 | 72% | 79% | +$2,286 | -$19,722 | 328.7% | $-21,055 (vs do-nothing $-16,074) |
| $45.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.02 | 18/20 | $8,391 | $7,640 | 70% | 77% | +$2,173 | -$19,332 | 322.2% | $-20,857 (vs do-nothing $-15,876) |
| $46 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.78 | 20/20 | $8,340 | $7,433 | 69% | 77% | +$1,847 | -$18,960 | 316.0% | $-20,101 (vs do-nothing $-15,120) |
| $45 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.18 | 17/20 | $8,552 | $7,880 | 69% | 76% | +$2,094 | -$18,836 | 313.9% | $-20,553 (vs do-nothing $-15,572) |
| $44 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 12/20 | $8,820 | $8,540 | 68% | 77% | +$2,745 | -$15,348 | 255.8% | $-18,025 (vs do-nothing $-13,044) |
| $44.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 15/20 | $8,204 | $7,689 | 67% | 75% | +$1,947 | -$17,085 | 284.7% | $-19,186 (vs do-nothing $-14,205) |
| $45 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 18/20 | $8,505 | $7,755 | 67% | 75% | +$1,812 | -$18,198 | 303.3% | $-19,723 (vs do-nothing $-14,742) |
| $44 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 14/20 | $8,303 | $7,867 | 65% | 74% | +$1,903 | -$16,366 | 272.8% | $-18,659 (vs do-nothing $-13,678) |
| $44 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 16/20 | $8,400 | $7,807 | 63% | 74% | +$1,605 | -$17,216 | 286.9% | $-19,125 (vs do-nothing $-14,144) |
| $43.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 13/20 | $8,220 | $7,862 | 63% | 74% | +$1,719 | -$15,626 | 260.4% | $-18,111 (vs do-nothing $-13,130) |
| $43 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.85 | 9/20 | $8,325 | $8,281 | 62% | 73% | +$2,231 | -$12,069 | 201.1% | $-15,322 (vs do-nothing $-10,341) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 12/20 | $8,142 | $7,862 | 60% | 72% | +$1,589 | -$14,784 | 246.4% | $-17,461 (vs do-nothing $-12,480) |
| $43 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 14/20 | $8,190 | $7,753 | 60% | 72% | +$1,421 | -$15,904 | 265.1% | $-18,197 (vs do-nothing $-13,216) |
| $42.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 12/20 | $8,723 | $8,443 | 58% | 71% | +$1,626 | -$15,132 | 252.2% | $-17,809 (vs do-nothing $-12,828) |
| $42 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 13/20 | $8,482 | $8,124 | 57% | 71% | +$1,351 | -$15,483 | 258.0% | $-17,968 (vs do-nothing $-12,987) |
| $42 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 11/20 | $8,631 | $8,430 | 56% | 70% | +$1,580 | -$14,146 | 235.8% | $-17,015 (vs do-nothing $-12,034) |
| $42 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.27 | 8/20 | $9,080 | $9,114 | 56% | 70% | +$1,979 | -$11,192 | 186.5% | $-14,637 (vs do-nothing $-9,656) |
| $41.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 10/20 | $8,308 | $8,185 | 54% | 69% | +$1,373 | -$13,160 | 219.3% | $-16,221 (vs do-nothing $-11,240) |
| $41 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 12/20 | $8,640 | $8,360 | 53% | 69% | +$1,197 | -$14,952 | 249.2% | $-17,629 (vs do-nothing $-12,648) |
| $41 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.85 | 10/20 | $8,885 | $8,762 | 52% | 69% | +$1,394 | -$13,410 | 223.5% | $-16,471 (vs do-nothing $-11,490) |
| $41 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.76 | 6/20 | $8,280 | $8,471 | 49% | 67% | +$1,442 | -$8,700 | 145.0% | $-12,529 (vs do-nothing $-7,548) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.