20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $56.53 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $16,615/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,083/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-35,240 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 16 × $45 | 78% | $8,400 | $2,524 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $54 | 17 Jul | 6d | 32.3% | 98% | 4% | $220 | $1,100 | -$7,300 | $4,840 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $54 32.3% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.12 mid) = $220 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $54) 98% Breach risk 2% POP (stays ≤ $54.12) 98% EV / mo +$895 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.5] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,753 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,496 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $64 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.04/sh now → $2.86 mid-life (likely $1.92–$3.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 82 simulated challenges: the $54 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $55 (overshoots $1.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $54 is $3 below CC-SS $56.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.03/sh (~25% of the $0.11 collected) or spot ≥ $54.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $54)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $56.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,240 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,262 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $54): -$4,840 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,817 (+$23,423 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,397 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,420, the opportunity cost of earning $1,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49 | 17 Jul | 6d | 20.0% | 92% | 17% | $740 | $3,700 | -$4,700 | $14,320 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49 20.0% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.39 mid) = $740 credit for the 6d cycle → $3,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $49.38) 93% EV / mo +$2,352 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~3.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,000 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,194 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.49/sh now → $2.47 mid-life (likely $2.09–$3.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 351 simulated challenges: the $49 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $51 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49 is $8 below CC-SS $56.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.09/sh (~25% of the $0.37 collected) or spot ≥ $49.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $49)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $56.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,240 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,262 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49): -$14,320 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,297 (+$13,943 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,397 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,900, the opportunity cost of earning $3,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 17 × $47 | 17 Jul | 6d | 15.1% | 86% | 28% | $1,105 | $5,525 | -$2,875 | $15,096 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 15.1% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.66 mid) = $1,105 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,525/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 88% EV / mo +$3,114 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [1.0-3.6] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.2 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~5.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,601 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,836 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $55 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life (likely $2.14–$3.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 652 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $49 (overshoots $1.55). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $10 below CC-SS $56.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $56.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,240 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,262 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$15,096 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,136 (+$13,104 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,397 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,739, the opportunity cost of earning $5,525/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $45 | 17 Jul | 6d | 10.2% | 78% | 34% | $1,680 | $8,400 | — | $16,768 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $45 10.2% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $1.06 mid) = $1,680 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $46.06) 83% EV / mo +$3,852 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-4.1] median, 0.2 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~9.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,440 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,797 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.07/sh now → $2.17 mid-life (likely $2.27–$3.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,014 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $46 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $12 below CC-SS $56.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.26/sh (~25% of the $1.05 collected) or spot ≥ $46.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $56.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,240 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,262 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $45): -$16,768 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$84 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,829 (+$11,411 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,397 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,432, the opportunity cost of earning $8,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $42 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.9% | 61% | 83% | $3,468 | $17,340 | +$8,940 | $21,233 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $42 2.9% OTM over spot $40.83 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.06 mid) = $3,468 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,340/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $44.06) 73% EV / mo +$5,228 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.9-3.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~20.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,543 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$131 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.78/sh now → $1.96 mid-life (likely $2.65–$4.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,894 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 6, at $44 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $15 below CC-SS $56.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.04 collected) or spot ≥ $44.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.10 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $56.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-35,240 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$28,262 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $42): -$21,233 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$63 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,273 (+$6,967 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-7,397 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,876, the opportunity cost of earning $17,340/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$28,262 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-7,397
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 16/20 | $8,400 | $7,612 | 78% | 83% | +$3,852 | -$16,768 | 279.5% | $-23,829 (vs do-nothing $-16,432) |
| $46.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.98 | 19/20 | $8,664 | $7,655 | 77% | 83% | +$4,162 | -$15,302 | 255.0% | $-22,301 (vs do-nothing $-14,904) |
| $45.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.25 | 16/20 | $8,313 | $7,526 | 73% | 81% | +$3,675 | -$14,045 | 234.1% | $-21,107 (vs do-nothing $-13,710) |
| $44 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 13/20 | $8,645 | $8,079 | 73% | 80% | +$3,537 | -$14,560 | 242.7% | $-21,684 (vs do-nothing $-14,287) |
| $45 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 18/20 | $8,432 | $7,497 | 72% | 79% | +$2,674 | -$17,100 | 285.0% | $-24,119 (vs do-nothing $-16,722) |
| $44.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 19/20 | $8,375 | $7,366 | 70% | 78% | +$1,678 | -$19,228 | 320.5% | $-26,226 (vs do-nothing $-18,829) |
| $45 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 19/20 | $8,550 | $7,541 | 69% | 77% | +$2,284 | -$16,207 | 270.1% | $-23,205 (vs do-nothing $-15,808) |
| $44 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 16/20 | $8,751 | $7,963 | 68% | 77% | +$2,548 | -$16,256 | 270.9% | $-23,317 (vs do-nothing $-15,920) |
| $43 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 11/20 | $9,020 | $8,602 | 67% | 76% | +$3,146 | -$13,079 | 218.0% | $-20,245 (vs do-nothing $-12,848) |
| $44 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 18/20 | $8,370 | $7,435 | 66% | 75% | +$1,563 | -$16,974 | 282.9% | $-23,993 (vs do-nothing $-16,596) |
| $43.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 15/20 | $8,723 | $8,009 | 66% | 76% | +$2,338 | -$15,765 | 262.7% | $-22,847 (vs do-nothing $-15,450) |
| $43 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 14/20 | $8,852 | $8,212 | 64% | 75% | +$2,321 | -$15,106 | 251.8% | $-22,209 (vs do-nothing $-14,812) |
| $43 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 16/20 | $8,760 | $7,972 | 63% | 75% | +$1,843 | -$15,808 | 263.5% | $-22,869 (vs do-nothing $-15,472) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 13/20 | $8,460 | $7,894 | 62% | 74% | +$1,825 | -$14,573 | 242.9% | $-21,697 (vs do-nothing $-14,300) |
| $42 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 9/20 | $9,180 | $8,909 | 61% | 73% | +$2,768 | -$11,241 | 187.3% | $-18,449 (vs do-nothing $-11,052) |
| $42 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 14/20 | $8,505 | $7,865 | 59% | 72% | +$1,609 | -$14,672 | 244.5% | $-21,775 (vs do-nothing $-14,378) |
| $42 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $8,862 | $8,369 | 59% | 73% | +$2,174 | -$13,596 | 226.6% | $-20,741 (vs do-nothing $-13,344) |
| $41.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 11/20 | $8,504 | $8,086 | 57% | 72% | +$1,823 | -$12,848 | 214.1% | $-20,014 (vs do-nothing $-12,617) |
| $41 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 14/20 | $8,610 | $7,970 | 56% | 70% | +$781 | -$16,002 | 266.7% | $-23,105 (vs do-nothing $-15,708) |
| $41 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 10/20 | $8,308 | $7,963 | 55% | 70% | +$1,702 | -$11,930 | 198.8% | $-19,117 (vs do-nothing $-11,720) |
| $41 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 7/20 | $8,750 | $8,627 | 54% | 70% | +$2,227 | -$9,121 | 152.0% | $-16,371 (vs do-nothing $-8,974) |
| $40.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $8,769 | $8,425 | 53% | 70% | +$1,599 | -$12,230 | 203.8% | $-19,417 (vs do-nothing $-12,020) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.