20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $57.43 | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $22,364/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,138/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-38,980 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $46 | 91% | $11,205 | $5,914 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 18 × $44 | 73% | $11,635 | $2,750 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $55 | 17 Jul | 4d | 37.8% | 99+% | 1% | $152 | $1,140 | -$10,065 | $4,464 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $55 37.8% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $152 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.09) 99+% EV / mo +$1,128 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.7 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,866 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,526 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.71/sh now → $4.04 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.96/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $2 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $55.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $55): -$4,464 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,761 (+$33,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,356, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.8% | 94% | 13% | $1,040 | $7,800 | -$3,405 | $15,647 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $47 17.8% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $1,040 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 95% EV / mo +$6,932 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,477 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,059 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 83% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.51/sh now → $3.19 mid-life (likely $2.78–$5.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 274 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $10 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $47): -$15,647 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$444 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-17,277 (+$21,703 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,872, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 15.3% | 91% | 13% | $1,494 | $11,205 | — | $19,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $46 15.3% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,494 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 93% EV / mo +$9,560 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,145 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,061 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 381 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $11 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $46): -$19,079 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$222 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,487 (+$18,493 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,082, the opportunity cost of earning $11,205/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 15.3% | 91% | 19% | $1,660 | $12,450 | +$1,245 | $21,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 15.3% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,660 credit for the 4d cycle → $12,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 93% EV / mo +$10,622 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,131 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,513 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.36/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 389 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $47 (overshoots $1.39). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $11 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$21,199 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,385 (+$16,595 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,980, the opportunity cost of earning $12,450/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.8% | 76% | 49% | $3,116 | $23,370 | +$12,165 | $24,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $43 7.8% OTM over spot $39.90 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.67 mid) = $3,116 credit for the 4d cycle → $23,370/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $44.67) 85% EV / mo +$16,301 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 75% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~10.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,367 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,192 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.95/sh now → $2.79 mid-life (likely $3.13–$5.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,051 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $44 (overshoots $1.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $14 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $44.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $43): -$24,300 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,597 (+$13,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,192, the opportunity cost of earning $23,370/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $57 | 24 Jul | 11d | 42.9% | 97% | 5% | $418 | $1,140 | -$10,495 | $398 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $57 42.9% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.31 mid) = $418 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $57) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $57.31) 98% EV / mo +$926 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-609 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$10,237 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 76% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.92/sh now → $5.61 mid-life (likely $3.58–$6.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.39/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 116 simulated challenges: the $57 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $59 (overshoots $2.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $57 is $0 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $57.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $57)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $57): -$398 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$111 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,695 (+$37,285 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$1,710, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 25.3% | 90% | 21% | $1,800 | $4,909 | -$6,725 | $13,059 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 25.3% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.97 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 11d cycle → $4,909/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $50.97) 92% EV / mo +$3,458 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.9 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,534 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,401 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 79% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.50/sh now → $4.60 mid-life (likely $3.96–$6.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 481 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $52 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $7 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.23/sh (~25% of the $0.90 collected) or spot ≥ $50.97 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$13,059 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,245 (+$24,735 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,840, the opportunity cost of earning $4,909/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 19.0% | 84% | 34% | $2,774 | $7,565 | -$4,069 | $17,085 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 19.0% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,774 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.96) 87% EV / mo +$4,540 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.6-3.6] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,821 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 27% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,750 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.02/sh now → $4.26 mid-life (likely $4.10–$6.51) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 808 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $10 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$17,085 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,271 (+$20,709 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,866, the opportunity cost of earning $7,565/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $44 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.3% | 73% | 48% | $4,266 | $11,635 | — | $19,907 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $44 10.3% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.62 mid) = $4,266 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,635/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $46.62) 82% EV / mo +$5,954 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,019 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,588 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $4.50–$6.26) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.37/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,426 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $46 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $13 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.59/sh (~25% of the $2.37 collected) or spot ≥ $46.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $44): -$19,907 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$222 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,315 (+$17,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,910, the opportunity cost of earning $11,635/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.3% | 54% | 99% | $8,200 | $22,364 | +$10,729 | $26,659 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 0.3% OTM over spot $39.90 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $8,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $22,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $44.35) 74% EV / mo +$8,083 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 67% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~20.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,389 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 80% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,569 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.69/sh now → $3.32 mid-life (likely $4.77–$6.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,391 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $42 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $17 below CC-SS $57.43: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $44.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected.
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $57.43, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$37,793 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$26,659 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,845 (+$11,135 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,405 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,440, the opportunity cost of earning $22,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.078 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$37,793 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,405
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 18/20 | $11,205 | $10,241 | 91% | 93% | +$9,560 | -$19,079 | 318.0% | $-20,487 (vs do-nothing $-17,082) |
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 15/20 | $11,812 | $11,110 | 87% | 91% | +$9,560 | -$17,069 | 284.5% | $-18,810 (vs do-nothing $-15,405) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 12/20 | $11,970 | $11,530 | 82% | 88% | +$9,092 | -$14,519 | 242.0% | $-16,593 (vs do-nothing $-13,188) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 10/20 | $12,300 | $12,034 | 76% | 85% | +$8,580 | -$12,789 | 213.2% | $-15,085 (vs do-nothing $-11,680) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 18/20 | $11,635 | $10,671 | 73% | 82% | +$5,954 | -$19,907 | 331.8% | $-21,315 (vs do-nothing $-17,910) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $11,684 | $10,807 | 71% | 81% | +$5,692 | -$19,396 | 323.3% | $-20,915 (vs do-nothing $-17,510) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 8/20 | $12,240 | $12,149 | 69% | 82% | +$7,766 | -$10,711 | 178.5% | $-13,229 (vs do-nothing $-9,824) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 15/20 | $11,209 | $10,507 | 69% | 79% | +$5,318 | -$17,534 | 292.2% | $-19,275 (vs do-nothing $-15,870) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $11,536 | $10,834 | 66% | 79% | +$4,988 | -$18,164 | 302.7% | $-19,905 (vs do-nothing $-16,500) |
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 19/20 | $11,558 | $10,507 | 66% | 79% | +$4,305 | -$20,481 | 341.3% | $-21,778 (vs do-nothing $-18,373) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $11,345 | $10,818 | 64% | 78% | +$5,052 | -$15,898 | 265.0% | $-17,861 (vs do-nothing $-14,456) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 17/20 | $11,475 | $10,598 | 63% | 76% | +$3,966 | -$19,345 | 322.4% | $-20,864 (vs do-nothing $-17,459) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 13/20 | $11,877 | $11,350 | 62% | 77% | +$4,915 | -$16,353 | 272.6% | $-18,316 (vs do-nothing $-14,911) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $11,250 | $11,333 | 62% | 79% | +$6,373 | -$8,358 | 139.3% | $-11,097 (vs do-nothing $-7,692) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $11,782 | $11,342 | 59% | 75% | +$4,691 | -$15,395 | 256.6% | $-17,469 (vs do-nothing $-14,064) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 17/20 | $11,617 | $10,740 | 59% | 74% | +$2,964 | -$20,960 | 349.3% | $-22,479 (vs do-nothing $-19,074) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 11/20 | $11,400 | $11,047 | 57% | 75% | +$4,246 | -$14,442 | 240.7% | $-16,627 (vs do-nothing $-13,222) |
| $40 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 14/20 | $11,667 | $11,052 | 56% | 73% | +$3,493 | -$17,401 | 290.0% | $-19,253 (vs do-nothing $-15,848) |
| $40 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $11,182 | $10,916 | 54% | 74% | +$4,042 | -$13,329 | 222.2% | $-15,625 (vs do-nothing $-12,220) |
| $40 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $11,250 | $11,421 | 53% | 77% | +$5,546 | -$7,215 | 120.2% | $-10,065 (vs do-nothing $-6,660) |
| $39.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 10/20 | $11,864 | $11,598 | 52% | 73% | +$4,045 | -$13,579 | 226.3% | $-15,875 (vs do-nothing $-12,470) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.