20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.38 (banked floor $57.69) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $21,873/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,138/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-38,980 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 18 × $46 | 89% | $11,205 | $5,525 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $45 | 76% | $11,073 | $2,401 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $55 | 17 Jul | 4d | 37.2% | 99+% | 1% | $152 | $1,140 | -$10,065 | $6,265 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $55 37.2% OTM over spot $40.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $152 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.09) 99+% EV / mo +$1,124 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-8,051 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,085 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $65 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.38/sh now → $3.81 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $3 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $55.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $55): -$6,265 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$116 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,443 (+$26,537 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,066, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.2% | 92% | 17% | $975 | $7,312 | -$3,892 | $16,091 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $47 17.2% OTM over spot $40.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $975 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 93% EV / mo +$6,093 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-4.3] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,974 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,539 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.25/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $2.78–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 320 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $47): -$16,091 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $57): -$579 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,732 (+$16,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,355, the opportunity cost of earning $7,312/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 17.2% | 92% | 17% | $1,300 | $9,750 | -$1,455 | $21,455 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 17.2% OTM over spot $40.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 93% EV / mo +$8,124 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.1-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~4.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,079 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,719 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 82% POP 77% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.25/sh now → $3.01 mid-life (likely $2.58–$4.70) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 305 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $11 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$21,455 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,517 (+$11,463 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,140, the opportunity cost of earning $9,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 18 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.7% | 89% | 14% | $1,494 | $11,205 | — | $20,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $46 14.7% OTM over spot $40.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,494 credit for the 4d cycle → $11,205/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 92% EV / mo +$8,866 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [0.9-4.3] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.9 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $16,274 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,754 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.12/sh now → $2.92 mid-life (likely $2.64–$4.91) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 433 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $12 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $46): -$20,785 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$231 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,079 (+$11,901 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,702, the opportunity cost of earning $11,205/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 7.3% | 74% | 54% | $2,952 | $22,140 | +$10,935 | $24,727 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $43 7.3% OTM over spot $40.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.67 mid) = $2,952 credit for the 4d cycle → $22,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $44.67) 83% EV / mo +$13,962 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (2.0 mo) · 73% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~12.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $23,141 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,802 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 91% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.73/sh now → $2.64 mid-life (likely $3.03–$5.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,144 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $44 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $15 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $44.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $43): -$24,727 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$231 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,021 (+$7,959 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,644, the opportunity cost of earning $22,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $57 | 24 Jul | 11d | 42.2% | 97% | 6% | $418 | $1,140 | -$9,933 | $2,199 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $57 42.2% OTM over spot $40.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.31 mid) = $418 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $57) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $57.31) 97% EV / mo +$907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.6] median · 51% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,121 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,869 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 76% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.65/sh now → $5.41 mid-life (likely $3.47–$6.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 114 simulated challenges: the $57 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 11, at $59 (overshoots $2.17). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $57 is $1 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $57.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $57)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $57): -$2,199 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$116 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-8,377 (+$30,603 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 11d | 27.2% | 91% | 18% | $1,420 | $3,873 | -$7,200 | $13,335 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 27.2% OTM over spot $40.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.78 mid) = $1,420 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,873/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.78) 93% EV / mo +$2,677 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 53% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 49% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,339 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,732 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 79% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.46/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $3.81–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 441 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $7 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $51.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$13,335 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-19,397 (+$19,583 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,020, the opportunity cost of earning $3,873/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 20 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 18.5% | 84% | 34% | $2,774 | $7,565 | -$3,507 | $18,981 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 18.5% OTM over spot $40.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,774 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,565/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $48.96) 87% EV / mo +$4,644 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-4.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,855 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,458 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 81% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.82/sh now → $4.12 mid-life (likely $4.07–$6.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 829 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$18,981 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,043 (+$13,937 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,666, the opportunity cost of earning $7,565/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.2% | 76% | 42% | $4,060 | $11,073 | — | $22,695 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 12.2% OTM over spot $40.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.16 mid) = $4,060 credit for the 11d cycle → $11,073/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $47.16) 83% EV / mo +$5,775 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 46% without) · ~6.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,155 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,541 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.37/sh now → $3.80 mid-life (likely $4.31–$6.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.03/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.77/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,255 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $47 (overshoots $1.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $13 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.03 collected) or spot ≥ $47.16 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$22,695 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,757 (+$10,223 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,380, the opportunity cost of earning $11,073/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.2% | 53% | 99+% | $8,200 | $22,364 | +$11,291 | $28,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 0.2% ITM over spot $40.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.35 mid) = $8,200 credit for the 11d cycle → $22,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 53% Breach risk 47% POP (stays ≤ $44.35) 73% EV / mo +$7,531 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,795 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.53/sh now → $3.20 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.10/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $18 below CC-SS $58.38: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.02/sh (~25% of the $4.10 collected) or spot ≥ $44.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.14 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.38, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$32,917 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$28,555 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,617 (+$4,363 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-8,377 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,240, the opportunity cost of earning $22,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$32,917 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-8,377
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 18/20 | $11,205 | $10,187 | 89% | 92% | +$8,866 | -$20,785 | 346.4% | $-27,079 (vs do-nothing $-18,702) |
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 14/20 | $11,025 | $10,247 | 85% | 89% | +$8,190 | -$17,258 | 287.6% | $-24,015 (vs do-nothing $-15,638) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 11/20 | $10,973 | $10,374 | 80% | 86% | +$7,591 | -$14,352 | 239.2% | $-21,456 (vs do-nothing $-13,079) |
| $45 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 20/20 | $11,073 | $9,934 | 76% | 83% | +$5,775 | -$22,695 | 378.2% | $-28,757 (vs do-nothing $-20,380) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 9/20 | $11,070 | $10,592 | 74% | 83% | +$6,981 | -$12,364 | 206.1% | $-19,699 (vs do-nothing $-11,322) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 17/20 | $10,988 | $10,030 | 72% | 81% | +$5,352 | -$20,412 | 340.2% | $-26,822 (vs do-nothing $-18,445) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 16/20 | $10,996 | $10,098 | 70% | 80% | +$5,080 | -$19,772 | 329.5% | $-26,297 (vs do-nothing $-17,920) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 15/20 | $11,209 | $10,371 | 68% | 79% | +$5,038 | -$18,956 | 315.9% | $-25,597 (vs do-nothing $-17,220) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 8/20 | $12,240 | $11,822 | 67% | 80% | +$7,012 | -$11,470 | 191.2% | $-18,921 (vs do-nothing $-10,544) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.38 | 20/20 | $11,273 | $10,135 | 67% | 78% | +$4,217 | -$22,991 | 383.2% | $-29,053 (vs do-nothing $-20,676) |
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 18/20 | $10,950 | $9,932 | 66% | 78% | +$3,843 | -$21,109 | 351.8% | $-27,403 (vs do-nothing $-19,026) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $11,536 | $10,698 | 65% | 78% | +$4,687 | -$19,586 | 326.4% | $-26,227 (vs do-nothing $-17,850) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.78 | 18/20 | $11,343 | $10,325 | 64% | 76% | +$3,995 | -$21,773 | 362.9% | $-28,068 (vs do-nothing $-19,690) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 13/20 | $11,345 | $10,627 | 63% | 77% | +$4,772 | -$17,130 | 285.5% | $-24,003 (vs do-nothing $-15,626) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 17/20 | $11,475 | $10,517 | 62% | 75% | +$3,720 | -$20,956 | 349.3% | $-27,366 (vs do-nothing $-18,989) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 12/20 | $10,964 | $10,305 | 61% | 76% | +$4,261 | -$16,233 | 270.5% | $-23,221 (vs do-nothing $-14,844) |
| $41.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.19 | 16/20 | $11,172 | $10,274 | 60% | 75% | +$3,646 | -$20,300 | 338.3% | $-26,826 (vs do-nothing $-18,449) |
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $11,250 | $10,952 | 60% | 77% | +$5,764 | -$8,926 | 148.8% | $-16,609 (vs do-nothing $-8,232) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 17/20 | $11,617 | $10,658 | 59% | 73% | +$2,695 | -$22,571 | 376.2% | $-28,981 (vs do-nothing $-20,604) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 12/20 | $11,782 | $11,123 | 58% | 74% | +$4,396 | -$16,533 | 275.5% | $-23,521 (vs do-nothing $-15,144) |
| $40.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 15/20 | $11,614 | $10,775 | 57% | 73% | +$3,518 | -$19,848 | 330.8% | $-26,489 (vs do-nothing $-18,112) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 11/20 | $11,400 | $10,802 | 56% | 74% | +$3,959 | -$15,485 | 258.1% | $-22,589 (vs do-nothing $-14,212) |
| $40 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 14/20 | $11,667 | $10,888 | 55% | 72% | +$3,252 | -$18,728 | 312.1% | $-25,485 (vs do-nothing $-17,108) |
| $40 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $11,182 | $10,643 | 53% | 73% | +$3,765 | -$14,277 | 238.0% | $-21,497 (vs do-nothing $-13,120) |
| $39.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.13 | 13/20 | $11,115 | $10,397 | 53% | 72% | +$3,098 | -$17,871 | 297.9% | $-24,744 (vs do-nothing $-16,367) |
| $40 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $11,250 | $11,012 | 52% | 76% | +$5,028 | -$7,689 | 128.1% | $-15,487 (vs do-nothing $-7,110) |
| $39.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 10/20 | $11,864 | $11,325 | 51% | 72% | +$3,754 | -$14,527 | 242.1% | $-21,747 (vs do-nothing $-13,370) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.