20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.52 (banked floor $57.84) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $20,727/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,138/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-38,980 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 17 × $46 | 88% | $10,582 | $5,032 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $45.50 | 77% | $10,519 | $2,208 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $55 | 17 Jul | 4d | 36.4% | 99+% | 1% | $152 | $1,140 | -$9,442 | $6,533 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $55 36.4% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.10 mid) = $152 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 99+% Breach risk 0% POP (stays ≤ $55.09) 99+% EV / mo +$1,122 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~0.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,664 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,630 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $65 @ 82% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.05/sh now → $3.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $55.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $55): -$6,533 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,407 (+$32,573 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,066, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $48 | 17 Jul | 4d | 19.0% | 94% | 13% | $912 | $6,840 | -$3,743 | $19,073 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 19.0% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.50 mid) = $912 credit for the 4d cycle → $6,840/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $48.50) 95% EV / mo +$5,763 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.6] median · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,137 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,617 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.11/sh now → $2.91 mid-life (likely $2.41–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.48/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 243 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.52). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.48 collected) or spot ≥ $48.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$19,073 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,947 (+$20,033 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-16,606, the opportunity cost of earning $6,840/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.6% | 91% | 18% | $1,300 | $9,750 | -$832 | $21,737 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.6% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.66 mid) = $1,300 credit for the 4d cycle → $9,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.66) 93% EV / mo +$7,907 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.9-3.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,120 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,341 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.99/sh now → $2.82 mid-life (likely $2.40–$4.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 350 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $47.66 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$21,737 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,481 (+$17,499 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,140, the opportunity cost of earning $9,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $46 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.1% | 88% | 16% | $1,411 | $10,582 | — | $19,870 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $46 14.1% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.88 mid) = $1,411 credit for the 4d cycle → $10,582/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $46.88) 91% EV / mo +$8,099 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.1] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~5.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $13,859 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,234 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 85% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.86/sh now → $2.73 mid-life (likely $2.74–$4.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $48 (overshoots $1.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $46.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $46): -$19,870 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $57): -$389 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,004 (+$18,976 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,663, the opportunity cost of earning $10,582/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 6.6% | 73% | 57% | $2,788 | $20,910 | +$10,328 | $23,593 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 6.6% OTM over spot $40.32 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.67 mid) = $2,788 credit for the 4d cycle → $20,910/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $44.67) 82% EV / mo +$12,430 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.2] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 70% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~13.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,333 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 40% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,420 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.50/sh now → $2.48 mid-life (likely $2.80–$4.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.84/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,190 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $44 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.41/sh (~25% of the $1.64 collected) or spot ≥ $44.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$23,593 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $57): -$389 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,727 (+$15,253 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,386, the opportunity cost of earning $20,910/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $57 | 24 Jul | 11d | 41.4% | 97% | 6% | $418 | $1,140 | -$9,379 | $2,467 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $57 41.4% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.31 mid) = $418 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $57) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $57.31) 97% EV / mo +$883 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~0.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-700 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 4% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$9,505 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $60 @ 75% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.38/sh now → $5.22 mid-life (likely $3.28–$6.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 115 simulated challenges: the $57 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $59 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $57 is $2 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.22 collected) or spot ≥ $57.31 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $57)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $57): -$2,467 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,341 (+$36,639 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: +$0, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 11d | 26.5% | 91% | 19% | $1,420 | $3,873 | -$6,646 | $13,617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 26.5% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.78 mid) = $1,420 credit for the 11d cycle → $3,873/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $51.78) 92% EV / mo +$2,573 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~1.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,865 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,407 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 78% POP 69% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $3.74–$6.20) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 463 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $53 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $8 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $51.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$13,617 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,361 (+$25,619 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,020, the opportunity cost of earning $3,873/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 17.8% | 83% | 36% | $2,635 | $7,187 | -$3,332 | $18,299 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47.50 17.8% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.46 mid) = $2,635 credit for the 11d cycle → $7,187/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $48.96) 87% EV / mo +$4,207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.8] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~3.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,725 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,908 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 80% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.61/sh now → $3.97 mid-life (likely $3.83–$5.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 925 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $11 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.35/sh (~25% of the $1.39 collected) or spot ≥ $48.96 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47.50): -$18,299 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$130 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,174 (+$20,806 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,833, the opportunity cost of earning $7,187/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 12.8% | 77% | 41% | $3,857 | $10,519 | — | $22,180 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 12.8% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $2.03 mid) = $3,857 credit for the 11d cycle → $10,519/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $47.53) 83% EV / mo +$5,487 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 65% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,112 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,594 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.26/sh now → $3.73 mid-life (likely $4.14–$5.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,227 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $47 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $13 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.48/sh (~25% of the $1.93 collected) or spot ≥ $47.53 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$22,180 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,924 (+$17,056 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,583, the opportunity cost of earning $10,519/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 0.4% | 55% | 98% | $7,600 | $20,727 | +$10,208 | $28,437 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40.50 0.4% OTM over spot $40.32 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $4.05 mid) = $7,600 credit for the 11d cycle → $20,727/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $44.55) 73% EV / mo +$6,551 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 71% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 61% without) · ~19.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,153 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 81% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,311 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.44/sh now → $3.14 mid-life (likely $4.49–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.66/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,434 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 11, at $42 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $18 below CC-SS $58.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $44.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $64.13 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,980 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,236 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40.50): -$28,437 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,181 (+$10,799 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-2,341 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,840, the opportunity cost of earning $20,727/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.078 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,236 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-2,341
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.83 | 17/20 | $10,582 | $9,624 | 88% | 91% | +$8,099 | -$19,870 | 331.2% | $-20,004 (vs do-nothing $-17,663) |
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.05 | 14/20 | $11,025 | $10,247 | 84% | 88% | +$7,863 | -$17,456 | 290.9% | $-17,979 (vs do-nothing $-15,638) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 11/20 | $10,973 | $10,374 | 79% | 85% | +$7,230 | -$14,507 | 241.8% | $-15,420 (vs do-nothing $-13,079) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.93 | 20/20 | $10,519 | $9,381 | 77% | 83% | +$5,487 | -$22,180 | 369.7% | $-21,924 (vs do-nothing $-19,583) |
| $45 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.03 | 19/20 | $10,519 | $9,441 | 75% | 82% | +$5,163 | -$21,828 | 363.8% | $-21,702 (vs do-nothing $-19,361) |
| $44.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 20/20 | $10,418 | $9,280 | 73% | 81% | +$4,115 | -$24,217 | 403.6% | $-23,961 (vs do-nothing $-21,620) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.64 | 9/20 | $11,070 | $10,592 | 73% | 82% | +$6,580 | -$12,490 | 208.2% | $-13,663 (vs do-nothing $-11,322) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.37 | 17/20 | $10,988 | $10,030 | 71% | 80% | +$5,011 | -$20,652 | 344.2% | $-20,786 (vs do-nothing $-18,445) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 16/20 | $10,996 | $10,098 | 69% | 79% | +$4,734 | -$19,997 | 333.3% | $-20,261 (vs do-nothing $-17,920) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.74 | 14/20 | $10,462 | $9,683 | 67% | 78% | +$4,376 | -$17,890 | 298.2% | $-18,413 (vs do-nothing $-16,072) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.38 | 19/20 | $10,710 | $9,631 | 67% | 77% | +$3,737 | -$22,109 | 368.5% | $-21,983 (vs do-nothing $-19,642) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.04 | 7/20 | $10,710 | $10,352 | 66% | 79% | +$5,727 | -$10,135 | 168.9% | $-11,567 (vs do-nothing $-9,226) |
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.65 | 18/20 | $10,950 | $9,932 | 65% | 77% | +$3,551 | -$21,363 | 356.0% | $-21,367 (vs do-nothing $-19,026) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.82 | 14/20 | $10,767 | $9,989 | 64% | 77% | +$4,024 | -$18,478 | 308.0% | $-19,001 (vs do-nothing $-16,660) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.78 | 17/20 | $10,713 | $9,754 | 63% | 76% | +$3,505 | -$20,803 | 346.7% | $-20,937 (vs do-nothing $-18,596) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 12/20 | $10,473 | $9,814 | 62% | 76% | +$4,083 | -$15,982 | 266.4% | $-16,765 (vs do-nothing $-14,424) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 16/20 | $10,800 | $9,902 | 61% | 75% | +$3,216 | -$19,949 | 332.5% | $-20,213 (vs do-nothing $-17,872) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 12/20 | $10,964 | $10,305 | 60% | 75% | +$3,917 | -$16,402 | 273.4% | $-17,185 (vs do-nothing $-14,844) |
| $41.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.19 | 15/20 | $10,474 | $9,635 | 60% | 74% | +$3,157 | -$19,243 | 320.7% | $-19,637 (vs do-nothing $-17,296) |
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 6/20 | $11,250 | $10,952 | 58% | 76% | +$5,320 | -$9,011 | 150.2% | $-10,573 (vs do-nothing $-8,232) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 16/20 | $10,933 | $10,035 | 58% | 72% | +$2,224 | -$21,469 | 357.8% | $-21,733 (vs do-nothing $-19,392) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 11/20 | $10,800 | $10,202 | 57% | 73% | +$3,694 | -$15,310 | 255.2% | $-16,223 (vs do-nothing $-13,882) |
| $40.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 14/20 | $10,839 | $10,061 | 56% | 72% | +$3,015 | -$18,722 | 312.0% | $-19,245 (vs do-nothing $-16,904) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 10/20 | $10,364 | $9,825 | 55% | 73% | +$3,275 | -$14,218 | 237.0% | $-15,261 (vs do-nothing $-12,920) |
| $40 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.00 | 13/20 | $10,833 | $10,115 | 54% | 72% | +$2,744 | -$17,574 | 292.9% | $-18,227 (vs do-nothing $-15,886) |
| $40 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $4.10 | 10/20 | $11,182 | $10,643 | 52% | 72% | +$3,423 | -$14,418 | 240.3% | $-15,461 (vs do-nothing $-13,120) |
| $40 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/20 | $11,250 | $11,012 | 50% | 74% | +$4,574 | -$7,759 | 129.3% | $-9,451 (vs do-nothing $-7,110) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.