20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $59.16 (banked floor $58.48) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,873/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,031/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-38,730 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 4d | 15 × $45 | 79% | $7,987 | $2,283 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 11d | 20 × $45.50 | 73% | $8,018 | $1,142 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $52 | 17 Jul | 4d | 26.6% | 97% | 5% | $144 | $1,080 | -$6,907 | $12,752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $52 26.6% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.09 mid) = $144 credit for the 4d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $52.09) 98% EV / mo +$787 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-397 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,505 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $63 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.87/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $1.78–$3.12) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 79 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $54 (overshoots $2.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $52.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $52): -$12,752 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $57): -$399 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,695 (+$26,035 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,162, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 17 Jul | 4d | 16.8% | 91% | 19% | $580 | $4,350 | -$3,637 | $21,749 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 16.8% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.29 mid) = $580 credit for the 4d cycle → $4,350/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.30) 91% EV / mo +$2,166 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.0] median · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,403 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,025 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.55/sh now → $1.80 mid-life (likely $1.59–$3.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.29/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 358 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $50 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.29 collected) or spot ≥ $48.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$21,749 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,293 (+$17,437 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,760, the opportunity cost of earning $4,350/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 19 × $47 | 17 Jul | 4d | 14.4% | 87% | 26% | $722 | $5,415 | -$2,572 | $22,391 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 14.4% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.40 mid) = $722 credit for the 4d cycle → $5,415/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $47.40) 89% EV / mo +$2,241 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,362 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,599 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.47/sh now → $1.75 mid-life (likely $1.65–$3.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.37/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 509 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $49 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $47.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$22,391 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $57): -$199 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-22,134 (+$16,596 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,601, the opportunity cost of earning $5,415/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 15 × $45 | 17 Jul | 4d | 9.5% | 79% | 31% | $1,065 | $7,987 | — | $20,182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $45 9.5% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $0.72 mid) = $1,065 credit for the 4d cycle → $7,987/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $45.73) 82% EV / mo +$2,499 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~11.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,608 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,397 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.32/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.73–$2.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 927 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $47 (overshoots $1.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $45.73 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $45): -$20,182 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $57): -$997 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,723 (+$18,007 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,190, the opportunity cost of earning $7,987/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 4d | 4.6% | 67% | 70% | $2,125 | $15,938 | +$7,950 | $25,355 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 4.6% OTM over spot $41.09 17 Jul 2026 (4d, $1.27 mid) = $2,125 credit for the 4d cycle → $15,938/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $44.27) 75% EV / mo +$3,509 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.2] median · 66% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~19.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,718 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$488 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.17/sh now → $1.54 mid-life (likely $1.91–$3.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,481 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 4, at $45 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $44.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$25,355 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $57): -$598 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,497 (+$13,233 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,964, the opportunity cost of earning $15,938/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 16 × $55 | 24 Jul | 11d | 33.9% | 94% | 12% | $400 | $1,091 | -$6,927 | $6,263 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $55 33.9% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.30 mid) = $400 credit for the 11d cycle → $1,091/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $55.30) 94% EV / mo +$483 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.2] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 57% without) · ~1.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-232 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,250 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 73% POP 64% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.99/sh now → $3.53 mid-life (likely $2.63–$4.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 272 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $57 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.25 collected) or spot ≥ $55.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $55): -$6,263 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $57): -$798 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,605 (+$32,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,072, the opportunity cost of earning $1,091/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $52 | 24 Jul | 11d | 26.6% | 90% | 21% | $880 | $2,400 | -$5,618 | $13,449 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $52 26.6% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $0.49 mid) = $880 credit for the 11d cycle → $2,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $52.49) 91% EV / mo +$851 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.3] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $887 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,616 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.59/sh now → $3.25 mid-life (likely $2.92–$4.63) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.81/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 478 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $54 (overshoots $1.91). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $52.49 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $52): -$13,449 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,993 (+$25,737 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,460, the opportunity cost of earning $2,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $47.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 15.6% | 80% | 43% | $2,020 | $5,509 | -$2,509 | $21,309 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47.50 15.6% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.08 mid) = $2,020 credit for the 11d cycle → $5,509/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47.50) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $48.58) 83% EV / mo +$1,104 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.6-3.4] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 60% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $4,811 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,666 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.02/sh now → $2.84 mid-life (likely $2.98–$4.48) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,040 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $49 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47.50 is $12 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $48.58 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47.50): -$21,309 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,853 (+$17,877 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,320, the opportunity cost of earning $5,509/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 11d | 10.7% | 73% | 47% | $2,940 | $8,018 | — | $24,389 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45.50 10.7% OTM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $1.74 mid) = $2,940 credit for the 11d cycle → $8,018/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $47.24) 79% EV / mo +$1,207 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.3 mo [0.7-2.7] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 56% without) · ~7.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,712 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 47% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,401 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.77/sh now → $2.67 mid-life (likely $3.13–$4.42) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.47/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,416 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 11, at $47 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $14 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.37/sh (~25% of the $1.47 collected) or spot ≥ $47.24 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45.50): -$24,389 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,933 (+$14,797 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,400, the opportunity cost of earning $8,018/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $41 | 24 Jul | 11d | -0.2% | 54% | 99+% | $6,000 | $16,364 | +$8,345 | $30,329 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $41 0.2% ITM over spot $41.09 24 Jul 2026 (11d, $3.15 mid) = $6,000 credit for the 11d cycle → $16,364/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $44.15) 68% EV / mo +$630 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,401 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.25/sh now → $2.30 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $18 below CC-SS $59.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $44.15 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.08 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-38,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,185 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $41): -$30,329 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,873 (+$8,857 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-3,533 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,340, the opportunity cost of earning $16,364/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 26 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.084 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,185 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-3,533
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.71 | 15/20 | $7,987 | $7,189 | 79% | 82% | +$2,499 | -$20,182 | 336.4% | $-20,723 (vs do-nothing $-17,190) |
| $44 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.92 | 12/20 | $8,280 | $7,620 | 73% | 78% | +$2,000 | -$17,093 | 284.9% | $-18,233 (vs do-nothing $-14,700) |
| $45.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.47 | 20/20 | $8,018 | $6,987 | 73% | 79% | +$1,207 | -$24,389 | 406.5% | $-23,933 (vs do-nothing $-20,400) |
| $45 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.61 | 19/20 | $8,343 | $7,358 | 71% | 77% | +$1,160 | -$23,854 | 397.6% | $-23,597 (vs do-nothing $-20,064) |
| $44.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.76 | 17/20 | $8,160 | $7,268 | 69% | 76% | +$1,040 | -$21,938 | 365.6% | $-22,080 (vs do-nothing $-18,547) |
| $45 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.45 | 20/20 | $8,167 | $7,136 | 68% | 76% | +$924 | -$23,429 | 390.5% | $-22,973 (vs do-nothing $-19,440) |
| $44 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 16/20 | $8,291 | $7,446 | 67% | 75% | +$884 | -$21,223 | 353.7% | $-21,565 (vs do-nothing $-18,032) |
| $44.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.62 | 19/20 | $8,297 | $7,312 | 67% | 75% | +$870 | -$22,885 | 381.4% | $-22,628 (vs do-nothing $-19,095) |
| $43 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 9/20 | $8,438 | $7,917 | 67% | 75% | +$1,858 | -$13,423 | 223.7% | $-15,161 (vs do-nothing $-11,628) |
| $44 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.77 | 18/20 | $8,310 | $7,372 | 65% | 74% | +$855 | -$22,310 | 371.8% | $-22,253 (vs do-nothing $-18,720) |
| $43.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.08 | 14/20 | $7,942 | $7,189 | 65% | 73% | +$793 | -$19,018 | 317.0% | $-19,759 (vs do-nothing $-16,226) |
| $43.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.94 | 17/20 | $8,330 | $7,438 | 64% | 73% | +$727 | -$21,632 | 360.5% | $-21,774 (vs do-nothing $-18,241) |
| $43 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.24 | 13/20 | $7,942 | $7,236 | 63% | 72% | +$638 | -$18,102 | 301.7% | $-19,042 (vs do-nothing $-15,509) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 16/20 | $8,400 | $7,555 | 62% | 72% | +$784 | -$20,823 | 347.1% | $-21,165 (vs do-nothing $-17,632) |
| $42.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.50 | 12/20 | $8,182 | $7,522 | 61% | 71% | +$780 | -$16,997 | 283.3% | $-18,137 (vs do-nothing $-14,604) |
| $42.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 15/20 | $8,125 | $7,326 | 60% | 71% | +$475 | -$20,122 | 335.4% | $-20,663 (vs do-nothing $-17,130) |
| $42 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.57 | 7/20 | $8,242 | $7,814 | 59% | 71% | +$1,261 | -$10,916 | 181.9% | $-13,053 (vs do-nothing $-9,520) |
| $42 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 15/20 | $8,500 | $7,701 | 59% | 70% | +$326 | -$20,647 | 344.1% | $-21,188 (vs do-nothing $-17,655) |
| $42 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.57 | 12/20 | $8,411 | $7,751 | 58% | 70% | +$305 | -$17,513 | 291.9% | $-18,653 (vs do-nothing $-15,120) |
| $41.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 13/20 | $8,017 | $7,310 | 57% | 70% | +$483 | -$18,154 | 302.6% | $-19,094 (vs do-nothing $-15,561) |
| $41.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.85 | 11/20 | $8,550 | $7,937 | 56% | 69% | +$518 | -$16,296 | 271.6% | $-17,635 (vs do-nothing $-14,102) |
| $41 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 13/20 | $8,450 | $7,744 | 55% | 69% | +$373 | -$18,544 | 309.1% | $-19,484 (vs do-nothing $-15,951) |
| $41 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 10/20 | $8,182 | $7,615 | 54% | 68% | +$315 | -$15,164 | 252.7% | $-16,703 (vs do-nothing $-13,170) |
| $40.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 12/20 | $8,500 | $7,840 | 53% | 68% | +$627 | -$17,297 | 288.3% | $-18,437 (vs do-nothing $-14,904) |
| $41 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 6/20 | $9,000 | $8,618 | 52% | 67% | +$1,027 | -$9,699 | 161.6% | $-12,035 (vs do-nothing $-8,502) |
| $40.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 9/20 | $7,977 | $7,457 | 51% | 66% | +$251 | -$13,873 | 231.2% | $-15,611 (vs do-nothing $-12,078) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.