20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $59.03 (banked floor $58.35) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,000/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,042/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-42,790 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 20 × $45 | 90% | $7,800 | $2,792 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 20 × $45 | 79% | $7,500 | $1,072 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $51 | 17 Jul | 3d | 30.8% | 99% | 2% | $108 | $1,080 | -$6,720 | $14,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $51 30.8% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.07 mid) = $108 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $51.06) 99% EV / mo +$980 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.7-3.9] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,501 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 1% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,065 Free roll-up +$6/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.28/sh now → $2.32 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.06/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.26/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $8 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.06 collected) or spot ≥ $51.06 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $51): -$14,345 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$574 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,886 (+$27,904 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,180, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,820 (+$17,970 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 20 × $46 | 17 Jul | 3d | 17.9% | 93% | 14% | $520 | $5,200 | -$2,600 | $25,539 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $46 17.9% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $520 credit for the 3d cycle → $5,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 93% Breach risk 7% POP (stays ≤ $46.28) 94% EV / mo +$3,672 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.3] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,605 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,484 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.83/sh now → $2.00 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.77) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.26/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 287 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.26 collected) or spot ≥ $46.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $46): -$25,539 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,506 (+$17,284 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,800, the opportunity cost of earning $5,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,260, position total $-27,112 (+$15,678 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 17 Jul | 3d | 15.4% | 90% | 13% | $780 | $7,800 | — | $27,279 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 15.4% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.41 mid) = $780 credit for the 3d cycle → $7,800/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $45.41) 92% EV / mo +$5,222 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-2.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $10,523 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,102 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.74/sh now → $1.94 mid-life (likely $1.87–$3.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 387 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $1.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.39 collected) or spot ≥ $45.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$27,279 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,246 (+$15,544 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,540, the opportunity cost of earning $7,800/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,000, position total $-28,852 (+$13,938 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $42 | 17 Jul | 3d | 7.7% | 76% | 51% | $1,500 | $15,000 | +$7,200 | $24,044 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $42 7.7% OTM over spot $39.00 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $1.02 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 3d cycle → $15,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $43.02) 81% EV / mo +$6,974 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.4] median, 0.3 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.3 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 63% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~16.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $19,362 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,144 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.49/sh now → $1.76 mid-life (likely $2.04–$3.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,017 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $44 (overshoots $1.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.00 collected) or spot ≥ $43.02 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $42): -$24,044 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$1,435 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,446 (+$17,344 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,740, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,585, position total $-31,357 (+$11,433 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 20 × $55 | 24 Jul | 10d | 41.0% | 97% | 7% | $360 | $1,080 | -$6,420 | $7,699 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $55 41.0% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.20 mid) = $360 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,080/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $55) 97% Breach risk 3% POP (stays ≤ $55.20) 97% EV / mo +$740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-4.1] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~0.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,037 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 6% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,857 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $59 @ 74% POP 65% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.80/sh now → $4.11 mid-life (likely $2.96–$5.10) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 166 simulated challenges: the $55 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $57 (overshoots $1.87). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $55 is $4 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.18 collected) or spot ≥ $55.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $55)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $55): -$7,699 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,666 (+$35,124 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,960, the opportunity cost of earning $1,080/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,852 (+$17,938 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $49.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.9% | 91% | 20% | $980 | $2,940 | -$4,560 | $18,079 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $49.50 26.9% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.54 mid) = $980 credit for the 10d cycle → $2,940/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $49.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.04) 92% EV / mo +$1,457 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [1.0-3.9] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,303 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,066 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 75% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $2.90–$5.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.49/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.03/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 530 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $51 (overshoots $1.94). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $49.50 is $10 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.12/sh (~25% of the $0.49 collected) or spot ≥ $50.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $49.50): -$18,079 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-18,046 (+$24,744 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,340, the opportunity cost of earning $2,940/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,852 (+$17,938 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 19 × $47 | 24 Jul | 10d | 20.5% | 84% | 35% | $1,653 | $4,959 | -$2,541 | $21,203 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $47 20.5% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.90 mid) = $1,653 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,959/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $47.90) 86% EV / mo +$1,479 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.5 mo) · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,472 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,559 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 78% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.62/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $3.25–$5.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.87/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.40/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 771 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.89). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.22/sh (~25% of the $0.87 collected) or spot ≥ $47.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $47): -$21,203 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$287 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,457 (+$21,333 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,751, the opportunity cost of earning $4,959/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,836 (+$17,954 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $45 | 24 Jul | 10d | 15.4% | 79% | 35% | $2,500 | $7,500 | — | $25,559 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $45 15.4% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.29 mid) = $2,500 credit for the 10d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $46.29) 83% EV / mo +$2,787 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.7 mo) · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,013 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,645 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.34/sh now → $3.07 mid-life (likely $3.30–$4.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,046 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $1.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.25 collected) or spot ≥ $46.29 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $45): -$25,559 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-25,526 (+$17,264 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,820, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,280, position total $-27,132 (+$15,658 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $40.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 3.8% | 61% | 84% | $5,073 | $15,219 | +$7,719 | $30,133 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $40.50 3.8% OTM over spot $39.00 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.75 mid) = $5,073 credit for the 10d cycle → $15,219/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40.50) 61% Breach risk 39% POP (stays ≤ $43.25) 73% EV / mo +$3,156 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~15.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $12,966 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$41 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.74/sh now → $2.65 mid-life (likely $3.53–$4.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.67/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,080 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $42 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40.50 is $19 below CC-SS $59.03: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.67/sh (~25% of the $2.67 collected) or spot ≥ $43.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.90 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.03, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-42,790 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$42,823 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $40.50): -$30,133 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$287 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-30,387 (+$12,403 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,706 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,681, the opportunity cost of earning $15,219/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.39 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,018, position total $-32,854 (+$9,936 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 34 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.069 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$42,823 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,706
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.39 | 20/20 | $7,800 | $6,758 | 90% | 92% | +$5,222 | -$27,279 | 454.6% | $-27,246 (vs do-nothing $-21,540) |
| $44 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.53 | 15/20 | $7,950 | $7,148 | 87% | 89% | +$4,752 | -$21,749 | 362.5% | $-23,151 (vs do-nothing $-17,445) |
| $43 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 11/20 | $8,140 | $7,530 | 82% | 85% | +$4,363 | -$16,818 | 280.3% | $-19,368 (vs do-nothing $-13,662) |
| $45 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.25 | 20/20 | $7,500 | $6,458 | 79% | 83% | +$2,787 | -$25,559 | 426.0% | $-25,526 (vs do-nothing $-19,820) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.34 | 19/20 | $7,638 | $6,644 | 78% | 82% | +$2,590 | -$25,060 | 417.7% | $-25,314 (vs do-nothing $-19,608) |
| $42 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 8/20 | $8,000 | $7,534 | 76% | 81% | +$3,719 | -$12,824 | 213.7% | $-16,234 (vs do-nothing $-10,528) |
| $44 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 17/20 | $7,548 | $6,650 | 75% | 80% | +$1,757 | -$23,034 | 383.9% | $-23,862 (vs do-nothing $-18,156) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.62 | 16/20 | $7,776 | $6,926 | 73% | 79% | +$1,763 | -$22,255 | 370.9% | $-23,370 (vs do-nothing $-17,664) |
| $44.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.21 | 20/20 | $7,800 | $6,758 | 73% | 79% | +$1,548 | -$24,639 | 410.6% | $-24,606 (vs do-nothing $-18,900) |
| $44 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.36 | 19/20 | $7,913 | $6,919 | 72% | 78% | +$1,542 | -$24,072 | 401.2% | $-24,326 (vs do-nothing $-18,620) |
| $43 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.78 | 15/20 | $8,010 | $7,208 | 71% | 78% | +$1,801 | -$21,374 | 356.2% | $-22,776 (vs do-nothing $-17,070) |
| $43.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $7,560 | $6,662 | 70% | 77% | +$1,451 | -$22,116 | 368.6% | $-22,944 (vs do-nothing $-17,238) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 14/20 | $7,980 | $7,226 | 70% | 77% | +$2,109 | -$20,481 | 341.4% | $-22,170 (vs do-nothing $-16,464) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 16/20 | $7,624 | $6,773 | 69% | 76% | +$1,465 | -$21,327 | 355.5% | $-22,442 (vs do-nothing $-16,736) |
| $41 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.33 | 6/20 | $7,980 | $7,610 | 68% | 77% | +$3,158 | -$10,020 | 167.0% | $-14,004 (vs do-nothing $-8,298) |
| $42 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.11 | 12/20 | $7,596 | $6,938 | 68% | 76% | +$1,991 | -$17,903 | 298.4% | $-20,166 (vs do-nothing $-14,460) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $7,571 | $6,768 | 67% | 76% | +$1,392 | -$20,504 | 341.7% | $-21,906 (vs do-nothing $-16,200) |
| $42 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 15/20 | $7,941 | $7,139 | 66% | 75% | +$1,334 | -$21,044 | 350.7% | $-22,446 (vs do-nothing $-16,740) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.26 | 12/20 | $8,136 | $7,478 | 66% | 75% | +$1,910 | -$18,323 | 305.4% | $-20,586 (vs do-nothing $-14,880) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.20 | 14/20 | $7,906 | $7,152 | 64% | 74% | +$1,316 | -$20,061 | 334.4% | $-21,750 (vs do-nothing $-16,044) |
| $41 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.47 | 11/20 | $8,151 | $7,541 | 63% | 74% | +$1,829 | -$17,115 | 285.3% | $-19,665 (vs do-nothing $-13,959) |
| $41 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 13/20 | $7,571 | $6,864 | 63% | 73% | +$1,037 | -$19,148 | 319.1% | $-21,124 (vs do-nothing $-15,418) |
| $40.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.67 | 10/20 | $8,010 | $7,448 | 61% | 73% | +$1,661 | -$15,859 | 264.3% | $-18,696 (vs do-nothing $-12,990) |
| $40.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 12/20 | $7,518 | $6,860 | 61% | 72% | +$1,135 | -$17,975 | 299.6% | $-20,238 (vs do-nothing $-14,532) |
| $40 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.74 | 5/20 | $8,700 | $8,378 | 61% | 74% | +$2,892 | -$8,645 | 144.1% | $-12,916 (vs do-nothing $-7,210) |
| $40 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 12/20 | $7,941 | $7,283 | 59% | 72% | +$1,100 | -$18,335 | 305.6% | $-20,598 (vs do-nothing $-14,892) |
| $40 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.92 | 9/20 | $7,884 | $7,370 | 59% | 72% | +$1,590 | -$14,498 | 241.6% | $-17,622 (vs do-nothing $-11,916) |
| $39.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 11/20 | $7,668 | $7,058 | 57% | 71% | +$955 | -$17,137 | 285.6% | $-19,687 (vs do-nothing $-13,981) |
| $39.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.05 | 9/20 | $8,235 | $7,721 | 57% | 70% | +$1,322 | -$14,831 | 247.2% | $-17,955 (vs do-nothing $-12,249) |
| $39 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 10/20 | $7,500 | $6,938 | 56% | 70% | +$976 | -$15,779 | 263.0% | $-18,616 (vs do-nothing $-12,910) |
| $39 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 8/20 | $7,920 | $7,454 | 54% | 69% | +$1,189 | -$13,384 | 223.1% | $-16,794 (vs do-nothing $-11,088) |
| $38.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.55 | 10/20 | $8,029 | $7,467 | 54% | 69% | +$1,064 | -$15,979 | 266.3% | $-18,816 (vs do-nothing $-13,110) |
| $39 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.22 | 4/20 | $8,880 | $8,606 | 52% | 70% | +$2,411 | -$7,124 | 118.7% | $-11,682 (vs do-nothing $-5,976) |
| $38.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 8/20 | $8,520 | $8,054 | 52% | 68% | +$1,169 | -$13,584 | 226.4% | $-16,994 (vs do-nothing $-11,288) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.