20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $59.10 (banked floor $58.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $12,529/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,295/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-40,090 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 3d | 16 × $45 | 83% | $6,400 | $2,253 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 10d | 19 × $45.50 | 76% | $6,327 | $-397 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 17 × $50 | 17 Jul | 3d | 23.9% | 96% | 8% | $136 | $1,360 | -$5,040 | $15,330 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $50 23.9% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.08 mid) = $136 credit for the 3d cycle → $1,360/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $50.09) 96% EV / mo +$628 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.0 mo [0.5-2.3] median · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 58% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $-473 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 3% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,607 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $61 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.28/sh now → $1.61 mid-life (likely $1.32–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.08/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 81 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 3, at $52 (overshoots $1.76). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.02/sh (~25% of the $0.08 collected) or spot ≥ $50.09 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $50): -$15,330 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,211 (+$23,879 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,200, the opportunity cost of earning $1,360/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-25,008 (+$15,082 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $47 | 17 Jul | 3d | 16.4% | 91% | 19% | $400 | $4,000 | -$2,400 | $23,795 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $47 16.4% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.22 mid) = $400 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $47.22) 91% EV / mo +$1,227 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.2 mo [0.7-2.5] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,048 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,550 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 82% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.36–$2.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.28/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 275 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $49 (overshoots $1.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $47.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $47): -$23,795 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,771 (+$16,319 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,760, the opportunity cost of earning $4,000/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$400, position total $-25,432 (+$14,658 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $46 | 17 Jul | 3d | 13.9% | 87% | 26% | $432 | $4,320 | -$2,080 | $20,524 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $46 13.9% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.29 mid) = $432 credit for the 3d cycle → $4,320/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $46) 87% Breach risk 13% POP (stays ≤ $46.28) 88% EV / mo +$978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-3.0] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.2 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 60% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~7.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,555 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,857 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.02/sh now → $1.43 mid-life (likely $1.43–$2.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 388 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $48 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $46 is $13 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.07/sh (~25% of the $0.27 collected) or spot ≥ $46.28 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $46): -$20,524 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$1,207 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,707 (+$18,383 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,696, the opportunity cost of earning $4,320/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,808, position total $-26,808 (+$13,282 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 16 × $45 | 17 Jul | 3d | 11.5% | 83% | 19% | $640 | $6,400 | — | $21,916 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $45 11.5% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.42 mid) = $640 credit for the 3d cycle → $6,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 83% Breach risk 17% POP (stays ≤ $45.41) 85% EV / mo +$1,378 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~11.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $5,684 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,578 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $56 @ 84% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.96/sh now → $1.39 mid-life (likely $1.41–$2.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 561 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $47 (overshoots $1.66). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $45.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $45): -$21,916 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$1,207 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-23,099 (+$16,991 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,088, the opportunity cost of earning $6,400/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$3,200, position total $-28,200 (+$11,890 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 3d | 6.5% | 73% | 56% | $1,258 | $12,580 | +$6,180 | $26,108 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 6.5% OTM over spot $40.37 17 Jul 2026 (3d, $0.77 mid) = $1,258 credit for the 3d cycle → $12,580/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $43.77) 78% EV / mo +$2,258 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 64% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~18.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $11,933 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$950 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $1.84/sh now → $1.30 mid-life (likely $1.52–$2.68) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.74/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.56/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,060 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $45 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.74 collected) or spot ≥ $43.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$26,108 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-26,989 (+$13,101 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-20,978, the opportunity cost of earning $12,580/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,222, position total $-31,230 (+$8,860 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $52 | 24 Jul | 10d | 28.8% | 92% | 17% | $437 | $1,311 | -$5,016 | $13,048 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $52 28.8% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.30 mid) = $437 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,311/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $52.30) 92% EV / mo +$93 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.7-3.1] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 55% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-2,305 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,255 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $55 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.98/sh now → $3.52 mid-life (likely $2.81–$4.93) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 399 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 10, at $54 (overshoots $2.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.06/sh (~25% of the $0.23 collected) or spot ≥ $52.30 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $52): -$13,048 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$302 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,326 (+$26,764 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,315, the opportunity cost of earning $1,311/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-25,024 (+$15,066 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $51 | 24 Jul | 10d | 26.3% | 90% | 21% | $640 | $1,920 | -$4,407 | $15,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $51 26.3% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.36 mid) = $640 credit for the 10d cycle → $1,920/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $51) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $51.37) 91% EV / mo +$279 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.8-3.5] median · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 54% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $-552 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,207 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 71% POP 63% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.84/sh now → $3.42 mid-life (likely $3.06–$5.14) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.32/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 467 simulated challenges: the $51 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $53 (overshoots $2.00). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $51 is $8 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.32 collected) or spot ≥ $51.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $51)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $51): -$15,555 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-15,531 (+$24,559 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-9,520, the opportunity cost of earning $1,920/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-25,032 (+$15,058 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 17 × $47 | 24 Jul | 10d | 16.4% | 81% | 40% | $1,394 | $4,182 | -$2,145 | $19,172 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $47 16.4% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $0.89 mid) = $1,394 credit for the 10d cycle → $4,182/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $47) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $47.88) 84% EV / mo +$635 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~5.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,146 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,776 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 74% POP 67% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.30/sh now → $3.04 mid-life (likely $3.17–$4.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $47 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $49 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $47 is $12 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.82 collected) or spot ≥ $47.88 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $47)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $47): -$19,172 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$905 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,053 (+$20,037 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,042, the opportunity cost of earning $4,182/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-25,008 (+$15,082 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 19 × $45.50 | 24 Jul | 10d | 12.7% | 76% | 41% | $2,109 | $6,327 | — | $23,726 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $45.50 12.7% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $1.18 mid) = $2,109 credit for the 10d cycle → $6,327/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $46.67) 80% EV / mo +$699 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.9] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 53% without) · ~6.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,708 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 41% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,407 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 77% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.10/sh now → $2.90 mid-life (likely $3.20–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,219 simulated challenges: the $46 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 10, at $47 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45.50 is $14 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $46.67 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $46)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $45.50): -$23,726 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$302 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,004 (+$16,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,993, the opportunity cost of earning $6,327/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$1,501, position total $-26,525 (+$13,565 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $42 | 24 Jul | 10d | 4.0% | 62% | 83% | $4,300 | $12,900 | +$6,573 | $29,895 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $42 4.0% OTM over spot $40.37 24 Jul 2026 (10d, $2.21 mid) = $4,300 credit for the 10d cycle → $12,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $42) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $44.22) 71% EV / mo +$456 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.4 mo [0.7-2.8] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 59% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~14.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $9,229 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 68% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$881 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.66/sh now → $2.59 mid-life (likely $3.52–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.44/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,047 simulated challenges: the $42 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 10, at $44 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $42 is $17 below CC-SS $59.10: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.15 collected) or spot ≥ $44.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $42)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $62.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.10, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-40,090 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$40,114 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $42): -$29,895 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,871 (+$10,219 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,011 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,860, the opportunity cost of earning $12,900/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.40 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,500, position total $-31,532 (+$8,558 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.071 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$40,114 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,011
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $45 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.40 | 16/20 | $6,400 | $5,201 | 83% | 85% | +$1,378 | -$21,916 | 365.3% | $-23,099 (vs do-nothing $-17,088) |
| $44 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.54 | 12/20 | $6,480 | $5,377 | 79% | 83% | +$1,642 | -$17,469 | 291.1% | $-19,859 (vs do-nothing $-13,848) |
| $45.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.11 | 19/20 | $6,327 | $5,056 | 76% | 80% | +$699 | -$23,726 | 395.4% | $-24,004 (vs do-nothing $-17,993) |
| $45 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.23 | 17/20 | $6,273 | $5,050 | 74% | 79% | +$635 | -$21,875 | 364.6% | $-22,756 (vs do-nothing $-16,745) |
| $46 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 20/20 | $6,318 | $5,023 | 73% | 78% | +$255 | -$22,615 | 376.9% | $-22,591 (vs do-nothing $-16,580) |
| $43 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.74 | 9/20 | $6,660 | $5,629 | 73% | 78% | +$1,195 | -$13,822 | 230.4% | $-17,117 (vs do-nothing $-11,106) |
| $44.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.35 | 16/20 | $6,480 | $5,281 | 72% | 77% | +$552 | -$21,196 | 353.3% | $-22,379 (vs do-nothing $-16,368) |
| $45.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $1.87 | 19/20 | $6,270 | $4,999 | 72% | 77% | +$249 | -$22,282 | 371.4% | $-22,560 (vs do-nothing $-16,549) |
| $45 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.05 | 18/20 | $6,512 | $5,265 | 71% | 76% | +$225 | -$21,685 | 361.4% | $-22,265 (vs do-nothing $-16,254) |
| $44 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.48 | 15/20 | $6,660 | $5,485 | 70% | 76% | +$466 | -$20,426 | 340.4% | $-21,911 (vs do-nothing $-15,900) |
| $43.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.63 | 13/20 | $6,357 | $5,230 | 68% | 75% | +$387 | -$18,158 | 302.6% | $-20,246 (vs do-nothing $-14,235) |
| $44 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.41 | 15/20 | $6,379 | $5,205 | 68% | 75% | +$362 | -$19,031 | 317.2% | $-20,516 (vs do-nothing $-14,505) |
| $43 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.79 | 12/20 | $6,444 | $5,341 | 66% | 73% | +$331 | -$17,169 | 286.1% | $-19,559 (vs do-nothing $-13,548) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.00 | 18/20 | $6,353 | $5,106 | 66% | 75% | $-1,376 | -$24,475 | 407.9% | $-25,055 (vs do-nothing $-19,044) |
| $42 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.00 | 7/20 | $7,000 | $6,017 | 66% | 73% | +$793 | -$11,268 | 187.8% | $-15,167 (vs do-nothing $-9,156) |
| $43 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.70 | 14/20 | $6,671 | $5,520 | 64% | 75% | +$241 | -$18,756 | 312.6% | $-20,543 (vs do-nothing $-14,532) |
| $42.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.92 | 11/20 | $6,336 | $5,257 | 64% | 72% | +$135 | -$16,145 | 269.1% | $-18,837 (vs do-nothing $-12,826) |
| $42.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 16/20 | $6,494 | $5,295 | 63% | 72% | $-776 | -$22,876 | 381.3% | $-24,059 (vs do-nothing $-18,048) |
| $42 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.15 | 10/20 | $6,450 | $5,395 | 62% | 71% | +$228 | -$14,947 | 249.1% | $-17,941 (vs do-nothing $-11,930) |
| $42 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 12/20 | $6,353 | $5,250 | 61% | 71% | +$64 | -$16,917 | 281.9% | $-19,307 (vs do-nothing $-13,296) |
| $41.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.31 | 10/20 | $6,930 | $5,875 | 59% | 70% | +$80 | -$15,287 | 254.8% | $-18,281 (vs do-nothing $-12,270) |
| $41.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 12/20 | $6,565 | $5,462 | 59% | 72% | $-227 | -$17,397 | 289.9% | $-19,787 (vs do-nothing $-13,776) |
| $41 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.36 | 5/20 | $6,800 | $5,865 | 58% | 69% | +$523 | -$8,369 | 139.5% | $-12,871 (vs do-nothing $-6,860) |
| $41 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 11/20 | $6,406 | $5,327 | 58% | 72% | $-254 | -$16,277 | 271.3% | $-18,969 (vs do-nothing $-12,958) |
| $41 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 9/20 | $6,831 | $5,800 | 57% | 68% | +$62 | -$14,011 | 233.5% | $-17,306 (vs do-nothing $-11,295) |
| $40.50 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.55 | 10/20 | $6,265 | $5,210 | 56% | 71% | $-81 | -$15,047 | 250.8% | $-18,041 (vs do-nothing $-12,030) |
| $40.50 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.72 | 8/20 | $6,528 | $5,521 | 55% | 68% | $-61 | -$12,702 | 211.7% | $-16,299 (vs do-nothing $-10,288) |
| $40 | 17d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 9/20 | $6,353 | $5,322 | 54% | 70% | +$276 | -$13,588 | 226.5% | $-16,883 (vs do-nothing $-10,872) |
| $40 | 10d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 7/20 | $6,300 | $5,317 | 52% | 66% | +$3 | -$11,268 | 187.8% | $-15,167 (vs do-nothing $-9,156) |
| $40 | 3d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.80 | 4/20 | $7,200 | $6,289 | 49% | 64% | +$308 | -$6,919 | 115.3% | $-11,723 (vs do-nothing $-5,712) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.