20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.94 (banked floor $58.26) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $15,188/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,135/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-44,370 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| THIS FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 2d | 17 × $43 | 92% | $7,905 | $4,013 |
| NEXT FRIDAY | 24 Jul 2026 · 9d | 20 × $43.50 | 79% | $7,600 | $715 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $48 | 17 Jul | 2d | 25.8% | 99% | 2% | $76 | $1,140 | -$6,765 | $20,709 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $48 25.8% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.05 mid) = $76 credit for the 2d cycle → $1,140/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 99% Breach risk 1% POP (stays ≤ $48.05) 99% EV / mo +$1,067 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.1 mo [0.9-3.8] median · 48% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~0.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-4,867 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 0% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,449 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $58 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.62/sh now → $1.86 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.04/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.82/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.01/sh (~25% of the $0.04 collected) or spot ≥ $48.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $48): -$20,709 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $56): -$269 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,983 (+$23,387 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,599, the opportunity cost of earning $1,140/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,691 (+$19,679 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 16 × $44 | 17 Jul | 2d | 15.3% | 95% | 11% | $336 | $5,040 | -$2,865 | $23,567 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 16 × $44 15.3% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.22 mid) = $336 credit for the 2d cycle → $5,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 95% Breach risk 5% POP (stays ≤ $44.22) 95% EV / mo +$4,119 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.2] median · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $7,490 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,283 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $54 @ 84% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 16 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.31/sh now → $1.64 mid-life (likely $1.59–$2.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 209 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.21 collected) or spot ≥ $44.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (16 × $44): -$23,567 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (4 × $56): -$1,076 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,648 (+$19,722 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-19,264, the opportunity cost of earning $5,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,040, position total $-29,656 (+$14,714 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $43 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.7% | 92% | 10% | $527 | $7,905 | — | $26,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $43 12.7% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $527 credit for the 2d cycle → $7,905/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $43.33) 93% EV / mo +$5,925 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.6] median · 58% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~7.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $14,485 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,166 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.72–$3.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 289 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $44 (overshoots $1.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $43.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $43): -$26,570 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $56): -$807 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,382 (+$16,988 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,998, the opportunity cost of earning $7,905/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$6,885, position total $-31,526 (+$12,844 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $43 | 17 Jul | 2d | 12.7% | 92% | 17% | $620 | $9,300 | +$1,395 | $31,259 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43 12.7% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.33 mid) = $620 credit for the 2d cycle → $9,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $43.33) 93% EV / mo +$6,970 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.5 mo [0.8-3.5] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.6 mo) · 61% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 51% without) · ~7.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,311 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,549 Free roll-up +$5/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.24/sh now → $1.58 mid-life (likely $1.67–$3.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.27/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 307 simulated challenges: the $43 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $45 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43 is $16 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $43.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $43)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43): -$31,259 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-31,264 (+$13,106 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-25,880, the opportunity cost of earning $9,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,100, position total $-32,816 (+$11,554 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 15 × $41 | 17 Jul | 2d | 7.5% | 80% | 41% | $1,020 | $15,300 | +$7,395 | $25,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $41 7.5% OTM over spot $38.15 17 Jul 2026 (2d, $0.71 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 2d cycle → $15,300/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $41.71) 85% EV / mo +$8,765 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.8-3.0] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.8 mo) · 62% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~18.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $22,676 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 26% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,202 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.09/sh now → $1.48 mid-life (likely $1.69–$3.22) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.80/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 792 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 1 of 2, at $43 (overshoots $1.54). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $18 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $41.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $41): -$25,889 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $56): -$1,345 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-27,239 (+$17,131 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,855, the opportunity cost of earning $15,300/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$8,520, position total $-33,111 (+$11,259 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 18 × $52 | 24 Jul | 9d | 36.3% | 96% | 8% | $360 | $1,200 | -$6,400 | $12,131 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $52 36.3% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.22 mid) = $360 credit for the 9d cycle → $1,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 96% Breach risk 4% POP (stays ≤ $52.22) 96% EV / mo +$828 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 2.0 mo [0.9-3.3] median · 49% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 48% without) · ~1.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $-1,412 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 7% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,255 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $57 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.19/sh now → $3.68 mid-life (likely $2.73–$4.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 204 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 9, at $54 (overshoots $1.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $52.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $52): -$12,131 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$538 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,674 (+$31,696 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,290, the opportunity cost of earning $1,200/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,666 (+$19,704 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $48 | 24 Jul | 9d | 25.8% | 91% | 18% | $880 | $2,933 | -$4,667 | $20,999 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $48 25.8% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.46 mid) = $880 credit for the 9d cycle → $2,933/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $48) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $48.47) 92% EV / mo +$1,620 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.0] median · 54% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 52% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,937 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 17% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,653 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $53 @ 77% POP 71% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.62/sh now → $3.27 mid-life (likely $2.87–$4.76) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.44/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 498 simulated challenges: the $48 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $50 (overshoots $1.83). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $48 is $11 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.11/sh (~25% of the $0.44 collected) or spot ≥ $48.47 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $48)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $48): -$20,999 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-21,004 (+$23,366 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-15,620, the opportunity cost of earning $2,933/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$0, position total $-24,716 (+$19,654 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 18 × $45 | 24 Jul | 9d | 18.0% | 84% | 33% | $1,530 | $5,100 | -$2,500 | $23,561 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $45 18.0% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $0.89 mid) = $1,530 credit for the 9d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $45.89) 87% EV / mo +$2,297 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.6 mo [0.9-3.9] median, 0.1 mo SLOWER than no FIGHT (1.6 mo): roll costs eat the credits at this rung · 55% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~4.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $6,179 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,823 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $51 @ 79% POP 73% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.20/sh now → $2.97 mid-life (likely $3.02–$4.57) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 849 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $47 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.85 collected) or spot ≥ $45.89 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$23,561 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $56): -$538 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,104 (+$20,266 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-18,720, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,718, position total $-27,384 (+$16,986 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 20 × $43.50 | 24 Jul | 9d | 14.0% | 79% | 36% | $2,280 | $7,600 | — | $28,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $43.50 14.0% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $1.21 mid) = $2,280 credit for the 9d cycle → $7,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $43.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $44.70) 83% EV / mo +$2,901 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.8 mo [0.9-3.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 57% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 50% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $8,916 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,384 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $50 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $4.00/sh now → $2.83 mid-life (likely $3.04–$4.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.14/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,094 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 9, at $45 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $43.50 is $15 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.14 collected) or spot ≥ $44.70 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $43.50): -$28,599 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,604 (+$15,766 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-23,220, the opportunity cost of earning $7,600/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$5,440, position total $-30,156 (+$14,214 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 20 × $40 | 24 Jul | 9d | 4.8% | 63% | 78% | $4,600 | $15,333 | +$7,733 | $33,279 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $40 4.8% OTM over spot $38.15 24 Jul 2026 (9d, $2.36 mid) = $4,600 credit for the 9d cycle → $15,333/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $40) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $42.36) 74% EV / mo +$4,080 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 1.7 mo [0.9-3.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (1.9 mo) · 56% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 47% without) · ~15.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $15,125 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$425 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $52 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.55/sh now → $2.51 mid-life (likely $3.31–$4.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.21/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,878 simulated challenges: the $40 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 9, at $42 (overshoots $1.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $40 is $19 below CC-SS $58.94: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.30 collected) or spot ≥ $42.36 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $40)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $61.12 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.07 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.94, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-44,370 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$44,365 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $40): -$33,279 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-33,284 (+$11,086 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-5,384 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,900, the opportunity cost of earning $15,333/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $47.36 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$10,120, position total $-34,836 (+$9,534 vs today) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 33 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.067 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$44,365 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-5,384
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $43 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.31 | 17/20 | $7,905 | $6,910 | 92% | 93% | +$5,925 | -$26,570 | 442.8% | $-27,382 (vs do-nothing $-21,998) |
| $42 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.47 | 11/20 | $7,755 | $7,042 | 87% | 89% | +$5,240 | -$18,116 | 301.9% | $-20,542 (vs do-nothing $-15,158) |
| $41 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $0.68 | 8/20 | $8,160 | $7,587 | 80% | 85% | +$4,675 | -$13,808 | 230.1% | $-17,040 (vs do-nothing $-11,656) |
| $43.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.14 | 20/20 | $7,600 | $6,465 | 79% | 83% | +$2,901 | -$28,599 | 476.6% | $-28,604 (vs do-nothing $-23,220) |
| $43 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.28 | 18/20 | $7,680 | $6,639 | 77% | 82% | +$2,852 | -$26,387 | 439.8% | $-26,930 (vs do-nothing $-21,546) |
| $42.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.41 | 17/20 | $7,990 | $6,995 | 75% | 81% | +$2,798 | -$25,550 | 425.8% | $-26,362 (vs do-nothing $-20,978) |
| $44 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.07 | 20/20 | $7,762 | $6,627 | 75% | 80% | +$2,308 | -$25,739 | 429.0% | $-25,744 (vs do-nothing $-20,360) |
| $43.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.20 | 19/20 | $7,838 | $6,749 | 74% | 79% | +$2,214 | -$25,155 | 419.3% | $-25,429 (vs do-nothing $-20,045) |
| $42 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.60 | 15/20 | $8,000 | $7,099 | 73% | 79% | +$2,798 | -$23,009 | 383.5% | $-24,359 (vs do-nothing $-18,975) |
| $43 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 18/20 | $7,830 | $6,789 | 72% | 79% | +$2,054 | -$24,515 | 408.6% | $-25,058 (vs do-nothing $-19,674) |
| $40 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.03 | 5/20 | $7,725 | $7,293 | 71% | 80% | +$3,943 | -$8,955 | 149.2% | $-12,994 (vs do-nothing $-7,610) |
| $41.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.73 | 14/20 | $8,073 | $7,219 | 71% | 78% | +$2,576 | -$21,993 | 366.6% | $-23,612 (vs do-nothing $-18,228) |
| $42.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 18/20 | $7,830 | $6,789 | 71% | 78% | +$1,575 | -$25,415 | 423.6% | $-25,958 (vs do-nothing $-20,574) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $42 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.53 | 17/20 | $8,064 | $7,070 | 69% | 77% | +$1,674 | -$24,496 | 408.3% | $-25,308 (vs do-nothing $-19,924) |
| $41 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $1.91 | 12/20 | $7,640 | $6,880 | 68% | 77% | +$2,266 | -$19,235 | 320.6% | $-21,392 (vs do-nothing $-16,008) |
| $41.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 15/20 | $7,678 | $6,777 | 67% | 76% | +$1,585 | -$22,064 | 367.7% | $-23,414 (vs do-nothing $-18,030) |
| $41 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 15/20 | $8,044 | $7,143 | 66% | 75% | +$1,468 | -$22,619 | 377.0% | $-23,969 (vs do-nothing $-18,585) |
| $40.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.10 | 11/20 | $7,700 | $6,987 | 65% | 74% | +$1,619 | -$17,973 | 299.6% | $-20,399 (vs do-nothing $-15,015) |
| $40.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 13/20 | $7,922 | $7,115 | 64% | 74% | +$1,779 | -$19,746 | 329.1% | $-21,634 (vs do-nothing $-16,250) |
| $40 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.30 | 10/20 | $7,667 | $7,000 | 63% | 74% | +$2,040 | -$16,639 | 277.3% | $-19,334 (vs do-nothing $-13,950) |
| $40 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 12/20 | $7,875 | $7,115 | 62% | 73% | +$1,771 | -$18,527 | 308.8% | $-20,684 (vs do-nothing $-15,300) |
| $39 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.40 | 4/20 | $8,400 | $8,015 | 61% | 75% | +$3,387 | -$7,416 | 123.6% | $-11,724 (vs do-nothing $-6,340) |
| $39.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.52 | 10/20 | $8,400 | $7,734 | 61% | 72% | +$1,677 | -$16,919 | 282.0% | $-19,614 (vs do-nothing $-14,230) |
| $39.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.70 | 11/20 | $7,631 | $6,918 | 60% | 73% | +$1,615 | -$17,313 | 288.6% | $-19,739 (vs do-nothing $-14,355) |
| $39 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.95 | 11/20 | $8,147 | $7,434 | 59% | 72% | +$1,687 | -$17,588 | 293.1% | $-20,014 (vs do-nothing $-14,630) |
| $39 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.63 | 9/20 | $7,890 | $7,270 | 58% | 72% | +$1,662 | -$15,579 | 259.6% | $-18,542 (vs do-nothing $-13,158) |
| $38.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 11/20 | $8,044 | $7,330 | 57% | 71% | +$1,116 | -$18,193 | 303.2% | $-20,619 (vs do-nothing $-15,235) |
| $38.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $2.98 | 8/20 | $7,947 | $7,374 | 56% | 70% | +$1,461 | -$13,968 | 232.8% | $-17,200 (vs do-nothing $-11,816) |
| $38 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 10/20 | $7,875 | $7,209 | 55% | 70% | +$1,130 | -$16,739 | 279.0% | $-19,434 (vs do-nothing $-14,050) |
| $38 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.15 | 8/20 | $8,400 | $7,827 | 53% | 69% | +$1,555 | -$14,232 | 237.2% | $-17,464 (vs do-nothing $-12,080) |
| $37.50 | 16d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 10/20 | $8,062 | $7,396 | 53% | 69% | +$849 | -$17,139 | 285.7% | $-19,834 (vs do-nothing $-14,450) |
| $37.50 | 9d | 24 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 7/20 | $7,933 | $7,408 | 50% | 68% | +$1,330 | -$12,628 | 210.5% | $-16,129 (vs do-nothing $-10,745) |
| $38 | 2d | 17 Jul 2026 | $1.90 | 3/20 | $8,550 | $8,212 | 50% | 70% | +$2,714 | -$5,712 | 95.2% | $-10,289 (vs do-nothing $-4,905) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.