20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $62.53 (banked floor $62.15) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $9,188/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,615/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-60,100 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $0.63 | $1,262 | 2026-07-28 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 8d | 17 × $36 | 77% | $4,781 | $1,232 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $38.50 | 7 Aug | 8d | 22.6% | 85%hist 99% | 31%hist 18% | +2pp | $722 | $2,708 | -$2,074 | $44,937 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $38.50 22.6% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.54 mid) = $722 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,708/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $38.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $39.04) 87% EV / mo $-312 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 33% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.1/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,467/mo median; plan ~$-998/mo after 68% keep · $-12,000 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.4-4.0], measured ONLY among the 33% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,779 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 81% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.60/sh now → $1.84 mid-life (likely $1.74–$2.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.38/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 692 simulated challenges: the $38 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $40 (overshoots $1.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $38.50 is $24 below CC-SS $62.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.38 collected) or spot ≥ $39.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $38)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $62.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,030 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $38.50): -$44,937 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$748 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-49,755 (+$10,345 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,032 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-30,723, the opportunity cost of earning $2,708/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$14,535, position total $-47,401 (+$12,699 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $37 | 7 Aug | 8d | 17.8% | 81%hist 99% | 41%hist 28% | +2pp | $840 | $3,150 | -$1,631 | $37,456 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $37 17.8% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.64 mid) = $840 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,150/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $37) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $37.63) 83% EV / mo $-344 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 32% whole by 9mo vs 30% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.9/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-1,388/mo median; plan ~$-944/mo after 68% keep · $-11,211 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-4.7], measured ONLY among the 32% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,776 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 81% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.77–$2.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 925 simulated challenges: the $37 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $39 (overshoots $1.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $37 is $26 below CC-SS $62.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.14/sh (~25% of the $0.56 collected) or spot ≥ $37.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $37)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $62.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,030 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $37): -$37,456 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (5 × $55): -$3,740 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-45,267 (+$14,833 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,032 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-26,235, the opportunity cost of earning $3,150/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$13,455, position total $-46,301 (+$13,799 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $36 | 7 Aug | 8d | 14.6% | 77%hist 96% | 49%hist 28% | +4pp | $1,275 | $4,781 | — | $43,828 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $36 14.6% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.77 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,781/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $36) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $36.77) 80% EV / mo $-311 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +4pp 30% whole by 9mo vs 26% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-981/mo median; plan ~$-667/mo after 68% keep · $-8,144 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.3-3.7], measured ONLY among the 30% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 37% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,580 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $46 @ 83% POP 81% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.37/sh now → $1.68 mid-life (likely $1.83–$2.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,117 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $38 (overshoots $1.65). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $36 is $27 below CC-SS $62.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $36.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $62.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,030 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $36): -$43,828 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$2,244 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-50,142 (+$9,958 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,032 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-31,110, the opportunity cost of earning $4,781/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,626, position total $-49,482 (+$10,618 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 19 × $33 | 7 Aug | 8d | 5.1% | 63%hist 80% | 80%hist 59% | +8pp | $2,546 | $9,548 | +$4,766 | $53,563 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $33 5.1% OTM over spot $31.40 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.41 mid) = $2,546 credit for the 8d cycle → $9,548/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $33) 63% Breach risk 37% POP (stays ≤ $34.41) 70% EV / mo $-2,107 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +8pp 39% whole by 9mo vs 31% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-250/mo median; plan ~$-170/mo after 68% keep · $-1,754 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~3.0 mo [1.6-4.4], measured ONLY among the 39% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 63% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$289 Free roll-up +$1/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $47 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.11/sh now → $1.49 mid-life (likely $1.99–$2.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,884 simulated challenges: the $33 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $35 (overshoots $1.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $33 is $30 below CC-SS $62.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.34/sh (~25% of the $1.34 collected) or spot ≥ $34.41 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $33)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $62.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-60,100 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$56,030 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $33): -$53,563 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$748 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-58,381 (+$1,719 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-19,032 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-39,349, the opportunity cost of earning $9,548/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $46.53 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$23,161, position total $-56,027 (+$4,073 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$56,030 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-19,032
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $36 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 17/20 | $4,781 | $2,196 | 77% | 80% | $-311 | -$43,828 | 730.5% | $-50,142 (vs do-nothing $-31,110) |
| $35.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.80 | 16/20 | $4,800 | $2,225 | 75% | 79% | $-625 | -$41,969 | 699.5% | $-49,032 (vs do-nothing $-30,000) |
| $35 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.88 | 14/20 | $4,620 | $2,065 | 73% | 77% | $-745 | -$37,311 | 621.9% | $-45,870 (vs do-nothing $-26,838) |
| $34.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.75 | 17/20 | $4,781 | $2,196 | 71% | 75% | $-2,570 | -$46,378 | 773.0% | $-52,692 (vs do-nothing $-33,660) |
| $35.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.90 | 18/20 | $4,664 | $2,068 | 70% | 76% | $-515 | -$45,236 | 753.9% | $-50,802 (vs do-nothing $-31,770) |
| $35 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.43 | 17/20 | $4,862 | $2,277 | 70% | 75% | $-835 | -$44,372 | 739.5% | $-50,686 (vs do-nothing $-31,654) |
| $35 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.02 | 17/20 | $4,683 | $2,097 | 69% | 75% | $-547 | -$43,369 | 722.8% | $-49,683 (vs do-nothing $-30,651) |
| $34 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.09 | 12/20 | $4,905 | $2,370 | 68% | 74% | $-938 | -$32,929 | 548.8% | $-42,984 (vs do-nothing $-23,952) |
| $34.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.33 | 18/20 | $4,788 | $2,193 | 68% | 74% | $-1,780 | -$48,062 | 801.0% | $-53,628 (vs do-nothing $-34,596) |
| $34.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.15 | 16/20 | $4,691 | $2,116 | 67% | 74% | $-569 | -$41,409 | 690.2% | $-48,472 (vs do-nothing $-29,440) |
| $34 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.51 | 16/20 | $4,832 | $2,257 | 66% | 73% | $-1,518 | -$43,233 | 720.6% | $-50,296 (vs do-nothing $-31,264) |
| $33.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.21 | 11/20 | $4,991 | $2,466 | 66% | 72% | $-1,028 | -$30,603 | 510.0% | $-41,406 (vs do-nothing $-22,374) |
| $34 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $1.96 | 18/20 | $4,811 | $2,216 | 66% | 72% | $-1,509 | -$47,828 | 797.1% | $-53,394 (vs do-nothing $-34,362) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $33.50 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.41 | 17/20 | $4,794 | $2,209 | 64% | 72% | $-2,433 | -$46,956 | 782.6% | $-53,270 (vs do-nothing $-34,238) |
| $33.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.18 | 16/20 | $4,756 | $2,181 | 64% | 72% | $-1,122 | -$42,961 | 716.0% | $-50,024 (vs do-nothing $-30,992) |
| $33 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.34 | 10/20 | $5,025 | $2,510 | 63% | 70% | $-1,109 | -$28,191 | 469.8% | $-39,742 (vs do-nothing $-20,710) |
| $33 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.64 | 15/20 | $4,920 | $2,355 | 62% | 70% | $-1,997 | -$41,836 | 697.3% | $-49,647 (vs do-nothing $-30,615) |
| $33 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.14 | 16/20 | $4,669 | $2,094 | 62% | 71% | $-1,627 | -$43,825 | 730.4% | $-50,888 (vs do-nothing $-31,856) |
| $32.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.51 | 14/20 | $4,792 | $2,236 | 61% | 70% | $-1,105 | -$38,529 | 642.2% | $-47,088 (vs do-nothing $-28,056) |
| $32 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.68 | 13/20 | $4,751 | $2,206 | 59% | 69% | $-1,105 | -$36,206 | 603.4% | $-45,513 (vs do-nothing $-26,481) |
| $32 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.27 | 11/20 | $4,994 | $2,469 | 58% | 68% | $-950 | -$31,087 | 518.1% | $-41,890 (vs do-nothing $-22,858) |
| $32 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.63 | 8/20 | $4,890 | $2,395 | 58% | 67% | $-1,229 | -$23,121 | 385.3% | $-36,168 (vs do-nothing $-17,136) |
| $31.50 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.05 | 12/20 | $4,991 | $2,456 | 57% | 68% | $-783 | -$33,577 | 559.6% | $-43,632 (vs do-nothing $-24,600) |
| $31 | 22d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.30 | 11/20 | $4,950 | $2,425 | 55% | 67% | $-699 | -$31,054 | 517.6% | $-41,857 (vs do-nothing $-22,825) |
| $31.50 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.54 | 8/20 | $4,620 | $2,125 | 55% | 64% | $-2,185 | -$23,593 | 393.2% | $-36,640 (vs do-nothing $-17,608) |
| $31 | 15d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.70 | 9/20 | $4,860 | $2,355 | 54% | 66% | $-809 | -$25,948 | 432.5% | $-38,247 (vs do-nothing $-19,215) |
| $31 | 8d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.99 | 7/20 | $5,224 | $2,738 | 52% | 63% | $-1,378 | -$20,679 | 344.6% | $-34,474 (vs do-nothing $-15,442) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.