FORTRESS FIGHT: IREN-LC45 @ $33.47

BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $59.67 | 20 contracts (2,000 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

IREN-LC45 @ $33.47 UNDERWATER $23.03 (40.8% below BE SS)

20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $59.67 (banked floor $59.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $45 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $31.729/sh)

SP: $65 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $29.138/sh)

HP: $21 exp 2026-10-16 (entry $1.977/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$94,000	(ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000
Normal income ref	$14,600/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge rolling cost	$2,062/mo
Unrealized P&L	$-53,980	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,300/mo

HEDGE COVER
$2,062/mo

NORMAL INCOME
$14,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
0.4 mo to earn back $6,000

ML VELOCITY
6.4 mo to earn back $94,000

Deep drawdown confirmed: a CC at CC-SS $59.67 (probe: $60C 15d) brings only $240/mo (<20% of normal), so FIGHT below it is warranted.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-02; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-02

$792

Hole (after banked)

$53,188

was $53,980 · 1% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,262

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$59.67 → $59.30

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$0.63	$1,262	2026-07-28

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYPULLBACK · %B 16 (live) · RSI 42 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 37 · %B 20 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELS20W MA (bounce target) $46.75 (+40%) · daily UBB $45.62 · 1-wk expected move ±$6 (chain IV)

SETUPSpring loaded, not ignited: 🎯 or 💎 at short DTE, normal tripwires. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-08-27: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

INTERPRETATION

Primary: 18 contracts at $39 / 8d. This is the safest strike (survival 80%, breach 20%) that still earns 50% of normal income ($7,300/mo); it brings $7,493/mo. The engine maximizes the odds the pullback never reaches your strike, rather than chasing the fattest near-ATM premium.

More income, less safety: the ladder tops out at 20 × $36/8d for $15,000/mo, but breach risk rises to 32% (+13pp vs the primary). The lower strike is hit by a smaller bounce.

More safety, less income: for just the hedge you can sit at 18 × $45/8d (93% survival, $2,093/mo).

Downside anchor: the primary mortgages $35,213 (587% of IC) ONLY on a full V-bounce all the way to SS $56, recoverable in 2.4 months of normal income. That is the rare tail; the frequent case is the strike holding. Surgical close on the 18 contracts realizes $-48,699 and cuts bleed by $1,855/mo.

📅 Two weekly tracks, this Friday & next Friday

Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.

🏆 Grand pick: NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 (8d) · sell 18 × $39, 80% survival, $7,493/mo (E[net] $999/mo).
This week's Friday is inside the pin/gamma window, so only the next weekly is shown.

Track	Expiry	Sell	Survival	Income/mo	E[net]/mo
NEXT FRIDAY 🏆	7 Aug 2026 · 8d	18 × $39	80%	$7,493	$999

E[net] arithmetic on the grand pick: keep $1,998 with probability 68%; on the 32% touch you roll, paying $5,130 to close and taking $1,745 back from the best priced door (net cash $3,385) and parking about one cycle of income. Charging the FULL buyback with no door credit (the pre-2026-07-25 model) contradicted the campaign simulation, which prices the same event as a cash-neutral even roll.

📅 NEXT FRIDAY · 7 Aug 2026 · 8d · E[net] $999/mo 🏆 GRAND PICK

🎯 Engine pick: sell 18 × $39 (50% normal), 80% survival, breach 20%, $7,493/mo.
The pick is already past the ~80% (≈1σ) comfort line, so take the income. Stepping out to the $41 rung (33% normal) lifts survival to 86% (breach 20% → 14%) for $2,633/mo less (35% income) buys safety you do not really need here.

IREN spot $33.47 · click a rung to expand its decision panel

Rung

Sell

Expiry

DTE

OTM

Survival

Touch odds

FIGHT edge

Per cycle

Income/mo

Δ vs pick

Cap give-up

▸

cover hedge

18 × $45

7 Aug

34.4%

93%hist 100%

14%hist 5%

+3pp

$558

$2,093

-$5,400

$25,853

Sell 18 × $45 34.4% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.35 mid)

= $558 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,093/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $45)

93%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $45.35)

94%

EV / mo

+$1,128

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

42% whole by 9mo vs 39% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~0.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-798/mo

median; plan ~$-542/mo after 68% keep · $-5,990 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.1-4.3], measured ONLY among the 42% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,715

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$54 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.92/sh now → $3.48 mid-life (likely $2.91–$4.95) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.31/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 273 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $47 (overshoots $2.05). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$45	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.20/sh	+$2,155 cycle +$2,713 [+$1,962…+$3,524] · 98% credit	69% surv 55%	-$28,156 NOT cap gain +$25,824
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$52	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.37/sh	+$666 cycle +$1,224 [+$68…+$1,864] · 78% credit	79% surv 72%	-$16,572 NOT cap gain +$37,408
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$48	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.29/sh	+$524 cycle +$1,082 [+$2…+$1,537] · 75% credit	74% surv 63%	-$24,722 NOT cap gain +$29,258
Max even-money escape in the band	~$53	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$94 cycle +$652 [-$599…+$1,271] · 59% credit	80% surv 74%	-$15,142 NOT cap gain +$38,838
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$54	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.26/sh	-$461 cycle +$97 [-$1,275…+$681] · 42% credit	81% surv 76%	-$13,695 NOT cap gain +$40,285
budget: banked $558 debit $461 (83% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $9,686/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike.

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$2,093/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-71%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	14% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$87/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $45 is $15 below CC-SS $59.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$25,853
… as % of IC ($6,000)	430.9%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	27.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	1.8 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-48,654

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.08/sh (~25% of the $0.31 collected) or spot ≥ $45.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $44.55	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $45-45.35	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $45.35	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$45.00 (1.7σ)	$558	$-30,311	+$23,669	+$306
+2.5%	$46.12 (1.9σ)	$-1,467	$-30,084	+$23,896	-$1,719
+5%	$47.25 (2.1σ)	$-3,492	$-29,856	+$24,124	-$3,744
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (3.4σ)	$-20,142	$-28,288	+$25,692	-$17,694

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,980

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,458

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $45): -$25,853

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$907

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-28,282 (+$25,698 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,694, the opportunity cost of earning $2,093/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$2,592, position total $-29,957 (+$24,023 vs today)

▸

🛡 safe yield

20 × $44

7 Aug

31.5%

92%hist 100%

17%hist 5%

+3pp

$800

$3,000

-$4,493

$30,545

Sell 20 × $44 31.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.44 mid)

= $800 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $44)

92%

Breach risk

POP (stays ≤ $44.44)

93%

EV / mo

+$1,640

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+3pp

40% whole by 9mo vs 37% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.0/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$-499/mo

median; plan ~$-339/mo after 68% keep · $-3,267 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.0 mo [1.0-3.7], measured ONLY among the 40% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

12%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$5,951

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$53 @ 81% POP

76% survival

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.77/sh now → $3.38 mid-life (likely $2.93–$4.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 369 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $46 (overshoots $1.81). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.16/sh	+$2,316 cycle +$3,116 [+$1,919…+$3,672] · 100% credit	69% surv 55%	-$29,783 NOT cap gain +$24,197
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$47	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.25/sh	+$499 cycle +$1,299 [-$107…+$1,554] · 70% credit	74% surv 63%	-$26,535 NOT cap gain +$27,445
Max even-money escape in the band	~$51	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.29/sh	+$574 cycle +$1,374 [-$147…+$1,832] · 70% credit	79% surv 72%	-$18,452 NOT cap gain +$35,528
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$53	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.33/sh	-$655 cycle +$145 [-$1,599…+$532] · 34% credit	81% surv 76%	-$15,677 NOT cap gain +$38,303
budget: banked $800 debit $655 (82% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$145 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $10,160/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$3,000/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-59%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	21% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$938/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $44 is $16 below CC-SS $59.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$30,545
… as % of IC ($6,000)	509.1%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	32.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.1 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-54,060

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.10/sh (~25% of the $0.40 collected) or spot ≥ $44.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $43.56	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $44-44.44	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $44.44	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$44.00 (1.6σ)	$800	$-32,099	+$21,881	+$520
+2.5%	$45.10 (1.7σ)	$-1,400	$-32,097	+$21,883	-$1,680
+5%	$46.20 (1.9σ)	$-3,600	$-32,095	+$21,885	-$3,880
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (3.4σ)	$-24,200	$-32,074	+$21,906	-$21,480

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,980

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,458

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $44): -$30,545

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-32,068 (+$21,912 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-21,480, the opportunity cost of earning $3,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$4,700, position total $-32,093 (+$21,887 vs today)

▸

33% normal

18 × $41

7 Aug

22.5%

86%hist 99%

29%hist 13%

+5pp

$1,296

$4,860

-$2,633

$32,315

Sell 18 × $41 22.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $0.78 mid)

= $1,296 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,860/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $41)

86%

Breach risk

14%

POP (stays ≤ $41.78)

88%

EV / mo

+$2,265

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+5pp

41% whole by 9mo vs 36% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~1.8/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$137/mo

median; plan ~$93/mo after 68% keep · $639 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.1 mo [1.1-4.0], measured ONLY among the 41% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

22%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$4,205

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 82% POP

78% survival

Buyback gross: $4.32/sh now → $3.06 mid-life (likely $2.85–$4.65) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.72/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 650 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $43 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$41	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$1.04/sh	+$1,878 cycle +$3,174 [+$1,322…+$2,723] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%	-$35,703 NOT cap gain +$18,277
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$46	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$921 cycle +$2,217 [+$98…+$1,678] · 79% credit	78% surv 70%	-$26,590 NOT cap gain +$27,390
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$44	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.13/sh	+$231 cycle +$1,527 [-$542…+$808] · 50% credit	74% surv 64%	-$32,285 NOT cap gain +$21,695
Max even-money escape in the band	~$48	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.05/sh	+$93 cycle +$1,389 [-$865…+$773] · 44% credit	80% surv 74%	-$24,414 NOT cap gain +$29,566
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.52/sh	-$945 cycle +$351 [-$2,090…-$394] · 20% credit	82% surv 78%	-$21,449 NOT cap gain +$32,531
budget: banked $1,296 debit $945 (73% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$351 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $7,593/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$4,860/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	-33%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	33% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$2,854/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $41 is $19 below CC-SS $59.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$32,315
… as % of IC ($6,000)	538.6%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	34.4%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.2 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-48,690

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.72 collected) or spot ≥ $41.78 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $40.59	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $41-41.78	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $41.78	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$41.00 (1.1σ)	$1,296	$-37,581	+$16,399	+$1,044
+2.5%	$42.02 (1.3σ)	$-549	$-37,374	+$16,606	-$801
+5%	$43.05 (1.4σ)	$-2,394	$-37,167	+$16,813	-$2,646
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (3.4σ)	$-26,604	$-34,750	+$19,230	-$24,156

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,980

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,458

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$32,315

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$907

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-34,744 (+$19,236 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-24,156, the opportunity cost of earning $4,860/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$9,054, position total $-36,419 (+$17,561 vs today)

▸

🎯 50% normal

18 × $39

7 Aug

16.5%

80%hist 99%

42%hist 28%

+7pp

$1,998

$7,493

—

$35,213

Sell 18 × $39 16.5% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $1.18 mid)

= $1,998 credit for the 8d cycle → $7,493/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $39)

80%

Breach risk

20%

POP (stays ≤ $40.17)

84%

EV / mo

+$3,147

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+7pp

48% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~2.6/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$891/mo

median; plan ~$606/mo after 68% keep · $3,872 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.3 mo [1.2-4.1], measured ONLY among the 48% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

32%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$3,132

Free roll-up

+$3/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$50 @ 85% POP

83% survival

Buyback gross: $4.03/sh now → $2.85 mid-life (likely $3.06–$4.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.11/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 965 simulated challenges: the $39 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $41 (overshoots $1.72). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (18 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$39	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.97/sh	+$1,745 cycle +$3,743 [+$1,003…+$2,042] · 99% credit	69% surv 55%	-$39,138 NOT cap gain +$14,842
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$44	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.51/sh	+$921 cycle +$2,919 [-$108…+$1,160] · 70% credit	77% surv 70%	-$30,893 NOT cap gain +$23,087
Max even-money escape in the band	~$44	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.35/sh	+$638 cycle +$2,636 [-$436…+$848] · 53% credit	78% surv 71%	-$30,175 NOT cap gain +$23,805
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$42	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.05/sh	+$94 cycle +$2,092 [-$876…+$208] · 32% credit	74% surv 65%	-$35,724 NOT cap gain +$18,256
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$50	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.06/sh	-$1,901 cycle +$97 [-$3,621…-$1,967] · 3% credit	85% surv 83%	-$21,703 NOT cap gain +$32,277
budget: banked $1,998 debit $1,901 (95% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 18 ct earn ≈ $5,381/mo while parked; 2 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$7,493/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	+3%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	51% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$5,487/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $39 is $21 below CC-SS $59.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$35,213
… as % of IC ($6,000)	586.9%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	37.5%
Recovery months (at normal income)	2.4 mo
Surgical close (18 ct)	$-48,699

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.11 collected) or spot ≥ $40.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $39)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $38.61	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $39-40.17	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $40.17	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$39.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$1,998	$-40,883	+$13,097	+$1,746
+2.5%	$39.97 (≤1σ, normal week)	$243	$-40,686	+$13,294	-$9
+5%	$40.95 (1.1σ)	$-1,512	$-40,489	+$13,491	-$1,764
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (3.4σ)	$-29,502	$-37,648	+$16,332	-$27,054

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,980

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,458

− CC assignment net of premium (18 × $39): -$35,213

− Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$907

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-37,642 (+$16,338 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-27,054, the opportunity cost of earning $7,493/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$11,952, position total $-39,317 (+$14,663 vs today)

▸

100% normal

20 × $36

7 Aug

7.6%

68%hist 80%

70%hist 51%

+9pp

$4,000

$15,000

+$7,507

$43,345

Sell 20 × $36 7.6% OTM over spot $33.47 7 Aug 2026 (8d, $2.05 mid)

= $4,000 credit for the 8d cycle → $15,000/mo projected

Survival (stays ≤ $36)

68%

Breach risk

32%

POP (stays ≤ $38.05)

77%

EV / mo

+$4,826

📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion)

FIGHT'S EDGE

+9pp

49% whole by 9mo vs 40% doing nothing

FIRE DRILLS

~5.1/quarter

challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration)

BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING

$2,326/mo

median; plan ~$1,581/mo after 68% keep · $10,611 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole)

green: with FIGHT · grey: without

if it recovers, the typical trip is ~2.4 mo [1.4-4.6], measured ONLY among the 49% of futures that got whole

🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it)

Challenge odds (touch by expiry)

56%

Flat exit net (mid-life)

-$1,105

Free roll-up

+$2/wk

Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026)

$52 @ 91% POP

91% survival

Buyback gross: $3.61/sh now → $2.55 mid-life (likely $3.24–$4.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,674 simulated challenges: the $36 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $38 (overshoots $1.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (20 ct)	POP / surv of new CC	If rolled & exited total P&L · cap gain @ new strike
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$36	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.86/sh	+$1,727 cycle +$5,727 [+$749…+$1,512] · 97% credit	69% surv 55%	-$43,188 NOT cap gain +$10,792
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$39	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,786 cycle +$5,786 [+$555…+$1,436] · 93% credit	75% surv 65%	-$38,064 NOT cap gain +$15,916
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$38	14 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.21/sh	+$416 cycle +$4,416 [-$670…+$72] · 28% credit	74% surv 64%	-$40,434 NOT cap gain +$13,546
Max even-money escape in the band	~$41	21 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.13/sh	+$269 cycle +$4,269 [-$1,170…-$188] · 20% credit	79% surv 72%	-$34,576 NOT cap gain +$19,404
SS $56 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$52	21 Aug 2026	18d left	-$1.81/sh	-$3,621 cycle +$379 [-$6,526…-$4,634]	91% surv 91%	-$17,445 NOT cap gain +$36,535
budget: banked $4,000 debit $3,621 (91% used ≈ 1.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$379 cash · rolled 20 ct earn ≈ $2,472/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stress

Income coverage

Gross FIGHT income	$15,000/mo
vs 50% target ($7,300/mo)	+105%
vs normal income ($14,600/mo)	103% covered
Net income (after hedge)	$12,938/mo

Downside budget

⚠ $36 is $24 below CC-SS $59.67: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.

Cap give-up @ CC-SS (V-bounce)	-$43,345
… as % of IC ($6,000)	722.4%
… as % of ML ($94,000)	46.1%
Recovery months (at normal income)	3.0 mo
Surgical close (20 ct)	$-54,090

Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook

The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.50/sh (~25% of the $2.00 collected) or spot ≥ $38.05 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $36)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $45.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".

Spot \ Time	≥ 5d left	3-4d left	≤ 2d (expiry)
Below $35.64	Do nothing. Theta wins.	Do nothing.	Penny buyback at the close; re-sell next cycle.
Pressing the strike $36-38.05	Hold, alert at breakeven. Rolling into a spike pays top dollar; let theta bleed the buyback first.	★ Roll on strength NOW: cheap buyback, fat credits.	Close or roll same day; pin risk at the strike.
Through breakeven ≥ $38.05	Act now: intrinsic compounds daily. Up-and-out or safety roll.	Roll or close immediately; time value is gone.	Close today, or be assigned.

If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.00 (IBKR)

Scenario	Spot	CC leg net	Position total	vs today	vs do-nothing
at strike	$36.00 (≤1σ, normal week)	$4,000	$-44,915	+$9,065	+$3,720
+2.5%	$36.90 (≤1σ, normal week)	$2,200	$-44,913	+$9,067	+$1,920
+5%	$37.80 (≤1σ, normal week)	$400	$-44,911	+$9,069	+$120
SS (= V-bounce)	$56.50 (3.4σ)	$-37,000	$-44,874	+$9,106	-$34,280

V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $59.67, where you are whole again, by expiry)

Starting unrealized P&L: $-53,980

+ Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$52,458

− CC assignment net of premium (20 × $36): -$43,345

Total Position P&L @ SS: $-44,868 (+$9,112 vs today)

Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-10,588 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-34,280, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now)

BB-reversion stress (→ $46.75 20W MA (bounce target), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,500, position total $-44,893 (+$9,087 vs today)

A nudge, not a rule: the engine maximizes income at acceptable safety; this weighs the income you would give up against the breach risk you would shed. Your hedge bleed and your read on IREN are the tiebreakers.

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (32 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 32 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 1.001 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$52,458 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-10,588

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$39	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.11	18/20	$7,493	$5,487	80%	84%	+$3,147	-$35,213	586.9%	$-37,642 (vs do-nothing $-27,054)
$38	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.35	15/20	$7,594	$5,672	77%	82%	+$2,922	-$30,484	508.1%	$-34,273 (vs do-nothing $-23,685)
$37.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.49	14/20	$7,822	$5,929	75%	81%	+$2,879	-$28,956	482.6%	$-33,198 (vs do-nothing $-22,610)
$38	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.10	18/20	$7,560	$5,554	73%	79%	+$2,100	-$35,231	587.2%	$-37,660 (vs do-nothing $-27,072)
$38.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.70	20/20	$7,364	$5,302	73%	80%	+$2,275	-$36,945	615.8%	$-38,468 (vs do-nothing $-27,880)
$37	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.65	12/20	$7,425	$5,587	72%	79%	+$2,629	-$25,227	420.5%	$-30,376 (vs do-nothing $-19,788)
$38	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.85	19/20	$7,384	$5,351	71%	79%	+$2,189	-$35,763	596.1%	$-37,739 (vs do-nothing $-27,151)
$36.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$1.81	11/20	$7,466	$5,657	70%	78%	+$2,501	-$23,499	391.7%	$-29,101 (vs do-nothing $-18,513)
$37	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.38	16/20	$7,616	$5,666	69%	77%	+$1,891	-$32,468	541.1%	$-35,804 (vs do-nothing $-25,216)
$37	22d	21 Aug 2026	$2.75	20/20	$7,500	$5,438	68%	77%	+$1,194	-$39,845	664.1%	$-41,368 (vs do-nothing $-30,780)
$36	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.00	10/20	$7,500	$5,718	68%	77%	+$2,413	-$21,673	361.2%	$-27,728 (vs do-nothing $-17,140)
$36.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$1.97	19/20	$7,486	$5,452	68%	75%	+$114	-$40,285	671.4%	$-42,261 (vs do-nothing $-31,673)
$36	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.70	14/20	$7,560	$5,666	66%	75%	+$1,676	-$29,362	489.4%	$-33,604 (vs do-nothing $-23,016)

Show 19 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$35.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.14	10/20	$8,025	$6,243	65%	76%	+$2,573	-$22,033	367.2%	$-28,088 (vs do-nothing $-17,500)
$36	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.45	16/20	$7,527	$5,578	65%	75%	+$1,729	-$32,356	539.3%	$-35,692 (vs do-nothing $-25,104)
$35.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.97	13/20	$7,722	$5,856	64%	74%	+$1,810	-$27,564	459.4%	$-32,259 (vs do-nothing $-21,671)
$35.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	15/20	$7,466	$5,544	63%	75%	+$1,645	-$30,784	513.1%	$-34,573 (vs do-nothing $-23,985)
$35	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.35	9/20	$7,931	$6,178	63%	74%	+$2,163	-$20,090	334.8%	$-26,599 (vs do-nothing $-16,011)
$35	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.15	12/20	$7,560	$5,722	62%	74%	+$1,662	-$25,827	430.5%	$-30,976 (vs do-nothing $-20,388)
$35	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.90	14/20	$7,445	$5,552	62%	74%	+$1,634	-$29,082	484.7%	$-33,324 (vs do-nothing $-22,736)
$34.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.05	14/20	$7,732	$5,838	60%	73%	+$1,520	-$29,572	492.9%	$-33,814 (vs do-nothing $-23,226)
$34.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.54	8/20	$7,620	$5,894	60%	73%	+$1,889	-$18,106	301.8%	$-25,068 (vs do-nothing $-14,480)
$34.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.20	12/20	$7,680	$5,842	60%	73%	+$1,388	-$26,367	439.5%	$-31,516 (vs do-nothing $-20,928)
$34	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.30	13/20	$7,623	$5,757	58%	72%	+$1,464	-$27,785	463.1%	$-32,480 (vs do-nothing $-21,892)
$34	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.60	11/20	$7,920	$6,110	58%	72%	+$1,628	-$24,280	404.7%	$-29,882 (vs do-nothing $-19,294)
$34	8d	7 Aug 2026	$2.78	8/20	$8,340	$6,614	57%	71%	+$1,954	-$18,314	305.2%	$-25,276 (vs do-nothing $-14,688)
$33.50	22d	21 Aug 2026	$4.55	12/20	$7,445	$5,608	57%	72%	+$1,382	-$25,947	432.5%	$-31,096 (vs do-nothing $-20,508)
$33.50	15d	14 Aug 2026	$3.65	10/20	$7,300	$5,518	56%	71%	+$1,140	-$22,523	375.4%	$-28,578 (vs do-nothing $-17,990)
$33	22d	21 Aug 2026	$3.65	15/20	$7,466	$5,544	55%	69%	$-609	-$34,534	575.6%	$-38,323 (vs do-nothing $-27,735)
$33.50	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.00	7/20	$7,875	$6,177	54%	70%	+$1,669	-$16,221	270.3%	$-23,636 (vs do-nothing $-13,048)
$33	15d	14 Aug 2026	$2.90	13/20	$7,540	$5,674	53%	68%	$-1,090	-$30,905	515.1%	$-35,600 (vs do-nothing $-25,012)
$33	8d	7 Aug 2026	$3.30	6/20	$7,425	$5,755	52%	69%	+$1,535	-$14,024	233.7%	$-21,892 (vs do-nothing $-11,304)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-07-30 21:39