20 contracts (2,000 sh) | BE SS: $56.50 | CC-SS: $58.62 (banked floor $58.26) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $94,000 | (ND $3.00 + SW $44) x 2000 |
| Normal income ref | $11,786/mo | 95% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,161/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-39,510 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20x $40.5C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $0.63 | $1,262 | 2026-07-28 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 20 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 7 Aug 2026 · 7d | 17 × $44 | 74% | $5,901 | $1,635 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 19 × $52 | 7 Aug | 7d | 30.4% | 94%hist 100% | 13%hist 5% | -0pp | $285 | $1,221 | -$4,680 | $12,302 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 19 × $52 30.4% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.17 mid) = $285 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,221/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $52) 94% Breach risk 6% POP (stays ≤ $52.17) 94% EV / mo +$170 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE -0pp 57% whole by 9mo vs 57% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~0.6/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-342/mo median; plan ~$-233/mo after 68% keep · $-1,191 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.1 mo [0.6-2.8], measured ONLY among the 57% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,789 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $67 @ 84% POP 82% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 19 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $3.03/sh now → $2.14 mid-life (likely $1.68–$3.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 239 simulated challenges: the $52 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $54 (overshoots $1.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $52 is $7 below CC-SS $58.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.04/sh (~25% of the $0.15 collected) or spot ≥ $52.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $52)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,504 − CC assignment net of premium (19 × $52): -$12,302 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (1 × $55): -$339 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,648 (+$26,862 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,852, the opportunity cost of earning $1,221/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 20 × $50 | 7 Aug | 7d | 25.4% | 91%hist 100% | 19%hist 5% | +0pp | $400 | $1,714 | -$4,187 | $16,850 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 20 × $50 25.4% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.23 mid) = $400 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $50.23) 91% EV / mo $-159 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +0pp 58% whole by 9mo vs 58% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~1.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $-113/mo median; plan ~$-77/mo after 68% keep · $-297 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.6-3.1], measured ONLY among the 58% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,651 Free roll-up +$4/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 80% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 20 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.86/sh now → $2.03 mid-life (likely $1.72–$3.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 372 simulated challenges: the $50 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $52 (overshoots $2.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $50 is $9 below CC-SS $58.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.05/sh (~25% of the $0.20 collected) or spot ≥ $50.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $50)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,504 − CC assignment net of premium (20 × $50): -$16,850 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-16,856 (+$22,654 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-10,060, the opportunity cost of earning $1,714/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $45 | 7 Aug | 7d | 12.8% | 78%hist 96% | 47%hist 28% | +2pp | $910 | $3,900 | -$2,001 | $18,165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $45 12.8% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.71 mid) = $910 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,900/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $45) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $45.71) 80% EV / mo $-740 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 61% whole by 9mo vs 59% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~2.7/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $744/mo median; plan ~$506/mo after 68% keep · $2,288 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.1], measured ONLY among the 61% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,529 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $60 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.46/sh now → $1.74 mid-life (likely $1.89–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.65/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.09/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,057 simulated challenges: the $45 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $47 (overshoots $1.75). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $45 is $14 below CC-SS $58.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.16/sh (~25% of the $0.65 collected) or spot ≥ $45.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $45)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,504 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $45): -$18,165 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (6 × $55): -$2,037 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-20,208 (+$19,302 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-13,412, the opportunity cost of earning $3,900/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 17 × $44 | 7 Aug | 7d | 10.3% | 74%hist 96% | 55%hist 43% | +2pp | $1,377 | $5,901 | — | $23,485 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 17 × $44 10.3% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $0.90 mid) = $1,377 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,901/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $44) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $44.90) 77% EV / mo $-1,250 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +2pp 55% whole by 9mo vs 53% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~3.5/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $1,152/mo median; plan ~$783/mo after 68% keep · $3,605 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.4 mo [0.6-3.0], measured ONLY among the 55% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,492 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 28 Aug 2026) $59 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 17 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.39/sh now → $1.69 mid-life (likely $1.92–$2.90) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,250 simulated challenges: the $44 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $46 (overshoots $1.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $44 is $15 below CC-SS $58.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $44.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $44)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,504 − CC assignment net of premium (17 × $44): -$23,485 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (3 × $55): -$1,018 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-24,510 (+$15,000 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-17,714, the opportunity cost of earning $5,901/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 18 × $41 | 7 Aug | 7d | 2.8% | 60%hist 79% | 86%hist 80% | +5pp | $2,754 | $11,803 | +$5,901 | $28,971 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 18 × $41 2.8% OTM over spot $39.88 7 Aug 2026 (7d, $1.62 mid) = $2,754 credit for the 7d cycle → $11,803/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $41) 60% Breach risk 40% POP (stays ≤ $42.62) 68% EV / mo $-2,987 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 simulated futures, this rung on repeat for 9 months, no directional opinion) FIGHT'S EDGE +5pp 60% whole by 9mo vs 54% doing nothing FIRE DRILLS ~7.0/quarter challenges to roll; realized tends lower (calibration) BANKED RATE WHILE FIGHTING $2,130/mo median; plan ~$1,448/mo after 68% keep · $7,523 banked by campaign end (selling stops once whole) green: with FIGHT · grey: without if it recovers, the typical trip is ~1.5 mo [0.7-3.3], measured ONLY among the 60% of futures that got whole 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 69% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3 Free roll-up +$2/wk Safest escape (by 21 Aug 2026) $56 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 18 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $2.16/sh now → $1.53 mid-life (likely $2.06–$3.00) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.53/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,071 simulated challenges: the $41 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $43 (overshoots $1.82). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted +0.5 vol pt per +1% move (spike-vol name: vol expands on a fast move, richer buyback). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $41 is $18 below CC-SS $58.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.38/sh (~25% of the $1.53 collected) or spot ≥ $42.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $41)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $44.96 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 1.05 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $58.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-39,510 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$39,504 − CC assignment net of premium (18 × $41): -$28,971 − Conservative CC assignment net of premium (2 × $55): -$679 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-29,656 (+$9,854 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-6,796 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-22,860, the opportunity cost of earning $11,803/mo FIGHT income now) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 1.054 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$39,504 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-6,796
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $0.81 | 17/20 | $5,901 | $4,888 | 74% | 77% | $-1,250 | -$23,485 | 391.4% | $-24,510 (vs do-nothing $-17,714) |
| $44 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.56 | 18/20 | $6,017 | $4,955 | 70% | 75% | $-672 | -$23,517 | 391.9% | $-24,202 (vs do-nothing $-17,406) |
| $43 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.02 | 14/20 | $6,120 | $5,255 | 70% | 74% | $-1,303 | -$20,447 | 340.8% | $-22,490 (vs do-nothing $-15,694) |
| $44 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.25 | 19/20 | $6,107 | $4,995 | 68% | 74% | $-539 | -$23,512 | 391.9% | $-23,858 (vs do-nothing $-17,062) |
| $43 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $1.78 | 16/20 | $6,103 | $5,139 | 67% | 73% | $-865 | -$22,152 | 369.2% | $-23,516 (vs do-nothing $-16,720) |
| $43 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.52 | 17/20 | $6,120 | $5,107 | 66% | 73% | $-601 | -$22,278 | 371.3% | $-23,303 (vs do-nothing $-16,507) |
| $43 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $2.95 | 19/20 | $6,005 | $4,894 | 65% | 73% | $-790 | -$24,082 | 401.4% | $-24,428 (vs do-nothing $-17,632) |
| $42 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.26 | 11/20 | $5,940 | $5,223 | 65% | 71% | $-1,353 | -$16,901 | 281.7% | $-19,963 (vs do-nothing $-13,167) |
| $42 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.09 | 14/20 | $6,270 | $5,405 | 63% | 71% | $-849 | -$20,349 | 339.1% | $-22,392 (vs do-nothing $-15,596) |
| $42 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $2.82 | 15/20 | $6,043 | $5,128 | 63% | 71% | $-643 | -$20,707 | 345.1% | $-22,411 (vs do-nothing $-15,615) |
| $42 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.20 | 18/20 | $6,171 | $5,109 | 63% | 71% | $-984 | -$24,165 | 402.7% | $-24,850 (vs do-nothing $-18,054) |
| $41 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.45 | 16/20 | $5,914 | $4,950 | 60% | 72% | $-1,141 | -$22,680 | 378.0% | $-24,044 (vs do-nothing $-17,248) |
| $41 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.53 | 9/20 | $5,901 | $5,283 | 60% | 68% | $-1,494 | -$14,485 | 241.4% | $-18,226 (vs do-nothing $-11,430) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $41 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.15 | 14/20 | $6,300 | $5,435 | 60% | 69% | $-717 | -$20,265 | 337.7% | $-22,308 (vs do-nothing $-15,512) |
| $41 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.28 | 13/20 | $6,351 | $5,535 | 59% | 69% | $-1,337 | -$19,948 | 332.5% | $-22,331 (vs do-nothing $-15,535) |
| $40 | 28d | 28 Aug 2026 | $3.85 | 15/20 | $6,188 | $5,273 | 57% | 69% | $-1,133 | -$22,162 | 369.4% | $-23,866 (vs do-nothing $-17,070) |
| $40 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.50 | 12/20 | $6,000 | $5,233 | 56% | 68% | $-745 | -$18,150 | 302.5% | $-20,872 (vs do-nothing $-14,076) |
| $40 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.75 | 10/20 | $5,893 | $5,225 | 55% | 66% | $-956 | -$15,875 | 264.6% | $-19,276 (vs do-nothing $-12,480) |
| $39.50 | 21d | 21 Aug 2026 | $3.70 | 12/20 | $6,343 | $5,576 | 55% | 67% | $-793 | -$18,510 | 308.5% | $-21,232 (vs do-nothing $-14,436) |
| $40 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $1.85 | 8/20 | $6,343 | $5,773 | 54% | 64% | $-1,725 | -$13,420 | 223.7% | $-17,500 (vs do-nothing $-10,704) |
| $39.50 | 14d | 14 Aug 2026 | $2.93 | 10/20 | $6,279 | $5,610 | 53% | 65% | $-1,078 | -$16,195 | 269.9% | $-19,596 (vs do-nothing $-12,800) |
| $39.50 | 7d | 7 Aug 2026 | $2.03 | 7/20 | $6,090 | $5,570 | 51% | 63% | $-1,700 | -$11,966 | 199.4% | $-16,386 (vs do-nothing $-9,590) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 20 contracts at the conservative CC.